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July 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes August 9th

S

sense

Member
i did say xb1 might eke out a win this month due to it being a slow month and some crazy deals going around for it but it does seem like interest has died down for the og xb1 when deals like this are still not selling out. This was a deal of the day yesterday and it is still listed dotd for today as well.

http://www.bestbuy.com/site/xbox-on...?id=pcmprd268000050002&skuId=9999269600050002

i mean 1tb bundle with both tombraider games, batman arkham knight, mad max, charging station, extra controller and a 50$ gift card to boot for 299 !!
 
J

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
Yea this is the first time in a long time I'm giving a month to Xbox.
 
A

Asd202

Member
sense said:
i did say xb1 might eke out a win this month due to it being a slow month and some crazy deals going around for it but it does seem like interest has died down for the og xb1 when deals like this are still not selling out. This was a deal of the day yesterday and it is still listed dotd for today as well.

http://www.bestbuy.com/site/xbox-on...?id=pcmprd268000050002&skuId=9999269600050002

i mean 1tb bundle with both tombraider games, batman arkham knight, mad max, charging station, extra controller and a 50$ gift card to boot for 299 !!
Click to expand...

Woot that's a crazy bundle. Fire sale in full effect.
 
C

Conduit

Banned
No Abdiel's info? Weird. :D

LTD for X360 and Xbone in same time-frame in US, anybody?

EDIT : no need, found them.
 
T

Trust me. I'm a PhD

Member
[PS4] 198K
[XB1] 195K
[3DS] 119K
[WIU] 25K

I haven't had a good month all year, so this is just about keeping optimism Gaf alive^^

Edit: Moving the numbers up a little. Optimism and all that.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Conduit said:
No Abdiel's info? Weird. :D

LTD for X360 and Xbone in same time-frame in US, anybody?
Click to expand...
LTD for 8th gen vs 7th gen launch aligned (8th gen won't be exactly accurate, might be off by a few thousand units)

Xbox 360 32 months [Nov 05 - Jun 08] - 10,461,100
Xbox One 32 months [Nov 13 - Jun 16] - 12,232,200 (+16.9%)

PS3 32 months [Nov 06 - Jun 09] - 7,910,100
PS4 32 months [Nov 13 - Jun 16] - 13,991,800 (+76.9%)

Wii 44 months [Nov 06 - Jun 10] - 29,590,300
Wii U 44 months [Nov 12 - Jun 16] - 5,266,000 (-82.2%)
 
C

Conduit

Banned
Welfare said:
LTD for 8th gen vs 7th gen launch aligned (8th gen won't be exactly accurate, might be off by a few thousand units)

Xbox 360 32 months [Nov 05 - Jun 08] - 10,461,100
Xbox One 32 months [Nov 13 - Jun 16] - 12,232,200 (+16.9%)

PS3 32 months [Nov 06 - Jun 09] - 7,910,100
PS4 32 months [Nov 13 - Jun 16] - 13,991,800 (+76.9%)

Wii 44 months [Nov 06 - Jun 10] - 29,590,300
Wii U 44 months [Nov 12 - Jun 16] - 5,266,000 (-82.2%)
Click to expand...


Well, thanks! :D
 
Unknown?

Unknown?

Member
Mikey Jr. said:
If XB1 doesn't beat PS4 for July and August, then I'm speechless.
Click to expand...

I really don't think it will in July but will in August due to deferred sells from people who waited instead of buying previous months.

It really seems like Sony has something cooking up their sleeve. They've had the Black Ops bundle standard for most of the year. They usually replace standard bundles with new ones. I wonder what the next one will be? Waiting for Neo or slim before updating their bundle perhaps?
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Mikey Jr. said:
If XB1 doesn't beat PS4 for July and August, then I'm speechless.
Click to expand...
August is an easy win. If the XB1 wins July it would only be by a few thousand units at the most, basically like how it was back in April 2015 because of how slow July usually is.

NeoMetallix said:
It really seems like Sony has something cooking up their sleeve. They've had the Black Ops bundle standard for most of the year. They usually replace standard bundles with new ones. I wonder what the next one will be? Waiting for Neo or slim before updating their bundle perhaps?
Click to expand...
A slim model isn't happening. At best a new 4k capable model gets released at $299 alongside the Neo at probably $399. They will probably bundle FFXV with the PS4.
 
E

EdReedFan20

Member
Welfare said:
August is an easy win. If the XB1 wins July it would only be by a few thousand units at the most, basically like how it was back in April 2015 because of how slow July usually is.
Click to expand...

Also, any XB1 S's that were sold since E3 won't officially be counted until the actual release date, correct? So that would mean only the current (soon old) model's sales will be counted for July.
 
A

Abdiel

Member
Conduit said:
No Abdiel's info? Weird. :D

LTD for X360 and Xbone in same time-frame in US, anybody?

EDIT : no need, found them.
Click to expand...

Heyo~

Sorry everyone, I missed the thread the last time around, apparently. It seems like the way they changed the NPD format caused there to be much less interest in the predictions.

On the Best Buy side, we saw PS4 win over for the month. XB1 had decent preorders leading in for the S with this new month, but how much impact that will have on the month from other retail sellers.

Other than that, a pretty straightforward month.
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
Welfare said:
Some awesome news, Zhuge is now an analyst at Niko Partners for the digital games market in Asia.

https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/760575578915368960
Click to expand...

Good for him. Happy to hear it. Well earned and deserved.

Hopefully this means we can cite him as an actual industry source now. I think this conclusively proves that the smear campaign on GAF was a load of manufactured BS created for the purpose of people dismissing valid info or saving face after it became clear that his insight and info were indeed valuable. Its great that such an unnecessary and unmerited scandal inevitably led to such a fortuitous outcome for him.
 
J

Javin98

Banned
RexNovis said:
Good for him. Happy to hear it. Well earned and deserved.

Hopefully this means we can actually cite the him as an actual industry source now. I think this conclusively proves that the smear campaign on GAF was a load of manufactured BS created for the purpose of people dismissing valid info or saving face after it became clear that his insight and info were indeed valuable. Its great that such an unnecessary and unmerited scandal inevitably led to such a fantastic outcome for him.
Click to expand...
Sure hope so. But I get a bad feeling that many posters will still go "Oh, Zhuge was a banned member" without even knowing what happened.
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
Abdiel said:
Heyo~

Sorry everyone, I missed the thread the last time around, apparently. It seems like the way they changed the NPD format caused there to be much less interest in the predictions.

On the Best Buy side, we saw PS4 win over for the month. XB1 had decent preorders leading in for the S with this new month, but how much impact that will have on the month from other retail sellers.

Other than that, a pretty straightforward month.
Click to expand...
Thanks.

I expect July to be a PS4 month and the S only will matter in August.

Keep us updated with the S launch please.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Ok so, looks like in UK 3DS Sales increased by Over 200% since Pokémon GO Release.

3DS XL hardware was up 222 per cent last week compared with the same period a year before, while 2DS sales rose 234 per cent. The figures are all the more impressive when you consider that news of the 3DS’ successor - the NX - was leaked last week.
Click to expand...

http://www.mcvuk.com/news/read/3ds-...nt-as-pok-mon-go-phenomenon-continues/0170682

Can't honestly believe there Are so many 3DS < 100k prediction.....

P.S

Oh btw, congrats Zhuge Daniel :p
 
A

Asd202

Member
Abdiel said:
Heyo~

Sorry everyone, I missed the thread the last time around, apparently. It seems like the way they changed the NPD format caused there to be much less interest in the predictions.

On the Best Buy side, we saw PS4 win over for the month. XB1 had decent preorders leading in for the S with this new month, but how much impact that will have on the month from other retail sellers.

Other than that, a pretty straightforward month.
Click to expand...

How's 3DS?
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
RexNovis said:
Good for him. Happy to hear it. Well earned and deserved.

Hopefully this means we can cite him as an actual industry source now. I think this conclusively proves that the smear campaign on GAF was a load of manufactured BS created for the purpose of people dismissing valid info or saving face after it became clear that his insight and info were indeed valuable. Its great that such an unnecessary and unmerited scandal inevitably led to such a fortuitous outcome for him.
Click to expand...

The funniest part is that everything dude used (at least initially) was purely public info. He just had the energy and was proactive enough to go find it.

He then found people in the industry and talked to them, and somehow got a source for some of the NPD and more proprietary stuff.

Then he showed interest and went out and found information on the asia and mobile markets, and just started talking about it.

What Zhuge/Daniel did could literally be done by anyone. He was interested, did the legwork, stayed positive, turned it into a career opportunity.

Any single person on GAF could do the exact same thing. Instead, some people would rather fight console warz, talk about how terrible the industry is, be negative and tear others down etc.

Good for him. I'm proud of the guy. Except for his fetish for Musou.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Ryng_tolu said:
Can't honestly believe there Are so many 3DS < 100k prediction.....
Click to expand...

3DS has been down YOY basically all year, and 100K would be up YOY. That's a mighty big turnaround with no big releases and relying only on ancillary interest from Pokemon Go. My prediction is 110K, so I do expect there to be significant ancillary interest in the console, but I completely understand if others aren't as optimistic on the crossover effect.

Edit:
Eh, I'll up mine to 120K. If I'm going to miss high, at least it'll be on a console I really want to do well!
Buy Fire Emblem
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
CosmicQueso said:
Was up in June, and 100k in July would not be up YoY.

What comp numbers are you carrying?
Click to expand...

!
You mean 3DS in June 2016 did better than in June 2015?
Also, I suppose we have no numbers at all for June 2015...
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Nvm

CosmicQueso said:
Yes. < +10%
Click to expand...

Ok, so, assuming the information we have are correct:

3DS in June 2015: ~125k
125k + < 10% = < 137k

June 2016 = 125-137k

June 2016 = +39% compared to May
125-137k / 1.39 = 90-99k


So:
June 2016 = 125-137k
May 2016 = 90-99k


Those are way better sales than what i ever thought... if numbers we have are correct, of course. Thank you Queso anyway!

donny2112 said:
That's a mighty big turnaround with no big releases and relying only on ancillary interest from Pokemon Go.
Click to expand...

I don't expect it to do much, but maybe many of you forget that July is also Monster Hunter Generation month, and it has a 3DS bundle.

Basically 3DS boost will be withouth doubt mostly for Pokémon GO, but in the end this is just another reason which can boost 3DS sales.

allan-bh said:
Surprising sales for 3DS, even before Pokemon GO.
Click to expand...

Well, Nintendo made an official $79 pricedrop for 2DS. I think this can expain those numbers... with Pokémon GO and an official new 3DS pricedrop this holidays, and of course Pokémon Moon and Sun in November... What if 3DS in 2016 sells more than in 2014 and 2015? :O
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
CosmicQueso said:
Your June range is fine, your May range is heavy by around 20k.

Where's that +39% coming from?
Click to expand...

Well, it's from Nintendo... was it wrong? o_O

Now that i think so, Nintendo said in June 3DS has surpassed 60 million worldwide, but in the end this was wrong. (Currently at 59.79m by end of June)

Now even that 39% is wrong...? Who made this Nintendo PR!?!??!?!

EDIT: Thanks Welfare
 
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