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July 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes August 9th

Its gonna be super close either way I think. I'm having a hard time picking one or the other for the month. Its basically deciding whether to weigh current YoY performance or more recent MoM trends more heavily. Its definitely the trickiest prediction month we've had for a while IMO. I'll probably flop back and forth a few times before the deadline to be honest.

Next month will be similar with the release of the Slim basically weighing how much the high initial pricing for the first SKU will impact the sales for the month. Albeit thats more tricky in regards to numerical sales predictions not order. Order is pretty much set for Aug.

I'm off a different mind. I think the August order depends on two things. How big NMS is and how well the XB1 does this month.

In a scenario where NMS does well critically and more importantly with WOM, alongside a case where XB1 doesn't outsell PS4 in July, I'm more inclined to think the PS4 win the month.

Part of that is probably because I haven't really been in impressed by the impact of the slim.
 

Welfare

Member
I'm off a different mind. I think the August order depends on two things. How big NMS is and how well the XB1 does this month.

In a scenario where NMS does well critically and more importantly with WOM, alongside a case where XB1 doesn't outsell PS4 in July, I'm more inclined to think the PS4 win the month.

Part of that is probably because I haven't really been in impressed by the impact of the slim.

The only slim model out is the most expensive one and with limited supply. The two SKU's at the end of the month are the true test for how well it'll do.
 

N.Domixis

Banned
I'm off a different mind. I think the August order depends on two things. How big NMS is and how well the XB1 does this month.

In a scenario where NMS does well critically and more importantly with WOM, alongside a case where XB1 doesn't outsell PS4 in July, I'm more inclined to think the PS4 win the month.

Part of that is probably because I haven't really been in impressed by the impact of the slim.

Anyone know how it compares to the 360 slim?
 

Welfare

Member
Anyone know how it compares to the 360 slim?

We no literally know nothing except for it selling out at 2(?) UK retailers, but we do know the 2TB SKU is limited, so that doesn't say much.

Hopefully we get something when the UK charts come out like when the 360S came out.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
As far as 3DS goes, I think it will also see a sizable bump due to interest from Pokemon GO but I dont see this exceeding a 20% or so MoM increase. I expect it will fall just short of a 20% increase MoM which is still incredibly impressive considering both the YoY trend for the handheld and the usual trends for July MoM.

What trend?

Using an estimate of 130-135k for June 2016, 3DS was up YOY by 5-8% last month, you are expecting the same YOY increase in July, which is not impressive, not with that crazy Pokémon GO explosion at least.

Maybe you missed the UK news where it was up YOY by over 200%, no one expect this in USA, but you should realize that we talk about 300-350K unit in a NPD if USA trend is the same of UK.

If 3DS will be down MOM in July that's gonna be pretty meh, nowhere close to impressive, even if July is a worse month than June.

I think 3DS in July-August will surprise lot of people, it think in August 3DS will outsell the PS4, imo.
 

allan-bh

Member
I'm off a different mind. I think the August order depends on two things. How big NMS is and how well the XB1 does this month.

In a scenario where NMS does well critically and more importantly with WOM, alongside a case where XB1 doesn't outsell PS4 in July, I'm more inclined to think the PS4 win the month.

Part of that is probably because I haven't really been in impressed by the impact of the slim.

Do you see NMS as system seller? I dont, even if have spectacular reviews.
 
Probably the fact that official thread is dead and public top 10 is now pathetic.
Well, both points are legid, while at least the first one is partly our fault.
Do you see NMS as system seller? I dont, even if have spectacular reviews.
This is something i never get. System seller is so fuzzy. How many consoles have to be moved to classify? Please give me a ballpark number.
I think No Man's Sky will create buzz, hype and press coverage. This will result in awareness and move consoles. Also, people who were waiting will finally buy consoles for this game.
As many as for COD? Of course not.
As many as for UC4? Not even this.
But nevertheless it's a nice coloured feather on Sony's hat.
 
Official thread now starts one week later so is difficult to drive discussion there, especially with the terrible top 10.
Terrible Top Ten - I like that.
But you are right. Digital sales would have been great, but seperately.
Physical and digital all mixed together is like putting the steak and the tiramisu into the blender.
And no platform ranking is a cold shower.
 

Welfare

Member
Just the air being sucked out of the whole thing. The type of info we get now, the last Gaf NPD thread not making it to double digit pages, etc... Just meh.
Aquamarine gives us pretty exact console numbers, gives us revenue made by hardware, and gives us insight on software titles in the top 10 and compares them to other software. She does a great job at giving us numbers.

Someone should just post the info we get from Aqua in the official thread next time.
 
Aquamarine gives us pretty exact console numbers, gives us revenue made by hardware, and gives us insight on software titles in the top 10 and compares them to other software. She does a great job at giving us numbers.

Someone should just post the info we get from Aqua in the official thread next time.
Yeah, she does a good job and I appreciate it.
 
Just the air being sucked out of the whole thing. The type of info we get now, the last Gaf NPD thread not making it to double digit pages, etc... Just meh.

We have just as much data (more?) than we did before thanks to Aqua.

If these changes mean we lose 30 pages of shitposting and console war nonsense than I'm okay with them.

Will just take some time for everyone to acclimate I guess.
 

watdaeff4

Member
If these changes mean we lose 30 pages of shitposting and console war nonsense than I'm okay with them.

Will just take some time for everyone to acclimate I guess.

Don't worry, the shitposting and warz will return. Between the new format and summer, July was just dead......

Will be back on a roll this fall. Esp if XB1 happens to sell more than PS4 in August.
 

Fdkn

Member
Don't worry, the shitposting and warz will return. Between the new format and summer, July was just dead......

Will be back on a roll this fall. Esp if XB1 happens to sell more than PS4 in August.

That we are not even sure of XB1 being able to win August shows how dead console wars are.
 

allan-bh

Member
That we are not even sure of XB1 being able to win August shows how dead console wars are.

I think is a very safe bet that Xbox One will win august, there's nothing major for PS4 in the month and Slim model usually is a success.
 

RexNovis

Banned
I'm off a different mind. I think the August order depends on two things. How big NMS is and how well the XB1 does this month.

In a scenario where NMS does well critically and more importantly with WOM, alongside a case where XB1 doesn't outsell PS4 in July, I'm more inclined to think the PS4 win the month.

Part of that is probably because I haven't really been in impressed by the impact of the slim.

I am incredibly excited for No Man's Sky. I've already made plans and preparations to start a daily captains log of my journey. I have absolute confidence the game will be an incredible success for Hello Games but I don't see it being a HW mover. The people most excited about No Man's Sky seem to be mostly enthusiasts who will either already have a PS4 or a gaming PC on which to play it. It'll probably bump things a bit but I seriously doubt it will be big enough to out sell the bump that comes from a competing console's new slim SKU.

The only thing that gives me pause and consider a possible PS4 victory in August is the high starting price for the initial run of XB1S 2TB skus. But even considering that high price there have been some real doorbuster deals on the OG XB1 to try and move units and those will no doubt conitnue in order to make room for the new Slims so there are some incredible deals for those looking for them.

As far as a PS4 victory in July being any indication on what to expect in August I would actually be of the opposite mind. If XB1 is unable to win in July despite the incredible deals it has had all month then that tells me that there is a lot of deffered demand for the XB1s and further cements the idea that the sales bump we will see from that system will be large enough to give it a win for the month.

What trend?

Using an estimate of 130-135k for June 2016, 3DS was up YOY by 5-8% last month, you are expecting the same YOY increase in July, which is not impressive, not with that crazy Pokémon GO explosion at least.

Maybe you missed the UK news where it was up YOY by over 200%, no one expect this in USA, but you should realize that we talk about 300-350K unit in a NPD if USA trend is the same of UK.

If 3DS will be down MOM in July that's gonna be pretty meh, nowhere close to impressive, even if July is a worse month than June.

I think 3DS in July-August will surprise lot of people, it think in August 3DS will outsell the PS4, imo.

The trend of the 3DS outside of a couple months has been significantly down YoY Ryng. You know that. A ~20% weekly bump MoM from June to July while also being up YoY is, in my opinion, pretty impressive given the state the system has been in the market the entire rest of the year. You are free to disagree. We are talking about July here Ryng. Historically speaking this isnt exactly a big sales month for gaming HW. I'm placing more stock in historical trends where as you are placing more stock in recent trends in other international markets it will be fun finding out which wins out this month.
 

Vena

Member
The trend of the 3DS outside of a couple months has been significantly down YoY Ryng. You know that. A ~20% weekly bump MoM from June to July while also being up YoY is, in my opinion, pretty impressive given the state the system has been in the market the entire rest of the year. You are free to disagree. We are talking about July here Ryng. Historically speaking this isnt exactly a big sales month for gaming HW. I'm placing more stock in historical trends where as you are placing more stock in recent trends in other international markets it will be fun finding out which wins out this month.

I don't know if historical trends matter when you have history making/record breaking events going on at the same time. The affect of GO has been visible in multiple markets now, and the US is almost assuredly going to follow but probably not as significantly. Ryng's analysis is based on an inflection point which would be largely irrelevant/oblivious to previous months or previous YoY performance before the release of the trigger event (Pokemon GO).

Moreover, Pokemon is definitely on an upward swing this year in terms of mindshare and attempts to reinvigorate interests with the changes being brought about and advertised with Sun&Moon (the Sun&Moon updates are also coming much faster now, and are gaining traction the internet over). As these things develop further, the hardware intrinsically tied to said property is going to behave very differently from previous months before said events kicked off into full gear.
 
Already a thread on Gaming side, and Microsoft has already stated the 2TB model was limited.
Day one edition once was limited, too. And that one took ages to sell out. The 2 TB model seems to be a huge success.
(i wish there was a law that, as soon as something is "limited", you have to indicate the number produced)
 
Do you see NMS as system seller? I dont, even if have spectacular reviews.

We'll find out how well it reviews soon and how great/good/bad the WoM is in a few days/weeks but I do think it could be a system seller.

I'm really just thinking in the scenario in which it has phenomenal WoM, in which case, I absolutely do see it impacting XB1 sales a bit and pushing PS4 systems.

A large part of this comes from the (maybe faulty) assumption that I just don't think the Xbox Slim S (limited or 500gb) is going to make that big of an impact.
 

RexNovis

Banned
With all the news coming out about the Neo reveal potentially being in the 7th of September I have to admit I'm really curious to see just how Sony plans to sell this concept to people. From a marketing perspective it seems like an absolute minefield of potential hang ups. How do you guys think Sony is going to pitch the whole concept to the mass market?

I don't know if historical trends matter when you have history making/record breaking events going on at the same time. The affect of GO has been visible in multiple markets now, and the US is almost assuredly going to follow but probably not as significantly. Ryng's analysis is based on an inflection point which would be largely irrelevant/oblivious to previous months or previous YoY performance before the release of the trigger event (Pokemon GO).

Moreover, Pokemon is definitely on an upward swing this year in terms of mindshare and attempts to reinvigorate interests with the changes being brought about and advertised with Sun&Moon (the Sun&Moon updates are also coming much faster now, and are gaining traction the internet over). As these things develop further, the hardware intrinsically tied to said property is going to behave very differently from previous months before said events kicked off into full gear.

I'm not disregarding the phenomenon I just don't see it making enough of an impact to eschew historical trends to the degree that you or Ryng do is all. I also clearly have a different idea of what sort of results would be "impressive" than either of you do. Both my and your point of view have enough supporting evidence to be reasonable. I'm by no means dismissing the possibility that you guys will be right I just think my prediction is more likely because I hold historical norms to a higher degree of importance than the other pertinent data.

Whelp looks like my tag is no longer sales GAF relevant... Not sure what I did to deserve that.
 

Vena

Member
I'm not disregarding the phenomenon I just don't see it making enough of an impact to eschew historical trends to the degree that you or Ryng do is all. I also clearly have a different idea of what sort of results would be "impressive" than either of you do. Both my and your point of view have enough supporting evidence to be reasonable. I'm by no means dismissing the possibility that you guys will be right I just think my prediction is more likely because I hold historical norms to a higher degree of importance than the other pertinent data.

That's fair, I suppose.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
The trend of the 3DS outside of a couple months has been significantly down YoY Ryng. You know that. A ~20% weekly bump MoM from June to July while also being up YoY is, in my opinion, pretty impressive given the state the system has been in the market the entire rest of the year. You are free to disagree. We are talking about July here Ryng. Historically speaking this isnt exactly a big sales month for gaming HW. I'm placing more stock in historical trends where as you are placing more stock in recent trends in other international markets it will be fun finding out which wins out this month.

I don't think so honestly. To me, the only trend is that 3DS withouth April always did over the expectations or at least didn't was not disappoint.

January: nothing to say, a bad month which was expect (well i personally though was gonna be even worse)
February: Waaaaaaaaaaaay better than the expectations, Fire Emblem fates and Pokémon first gen made an unexpect strong boost
March: About the same of February, which is impressive considering March is a worse month and February got two strong release
April: well in that case was a disappoint month, yes.
May: up MOM even if April is a worse month, that's only with a $20 pricedrop for the 2DS which is basically the model most people hate, i didn't expect an increase MOM (even if in the end was still a bad month but that's not the point, we talk about better/worse performance than we though)
June: up YOY, and 70% up MOM, i mean, nothing to say

Basically 35% down YOY is great if we considering the first half of year was the release of the New 3DS which boosted the handheld to almost 400K in a single month.

Withouoth February and March, 3DS didn't do that bad YOY.

I mean, in some months 3DS was also doing better/close to 2014 or even 2013 in February:

February
2013 - 189,000
2014 - 153,000
2016 - 176,000

March
2014 - 159,000
2016 - 171,000

June
2014 - 152,000
2015 - 125,000
2016 - 130-135K


I don't know what people expect, but at the start of the year i though 2016 was gonna be a death year for 3DS, not at Wii U level but yeah nowhere close to old years for example, while in my opinion is holding pretty good.

Again July and August are gonna be a surprise month for many people with 3DS, all signs show that 3DS is gonna have strongs months:

In Italy was up MOM by 33%, in UK the week of Pokémon GO release 3DS sales more than doubled and then continued to increase, and for the US, we have Amazon which show 3DS is gonna have a close month to PS4 in July (this even if in the last week 3DS was sold out on Amazon, and not in the others stores) and in August is doing WAY better.
 

Welfare

Member
3DS May and June performance was definitely thanks to the 2DS price cut, otherwise it would have performed worse. March was a worse month than February. Weekly average dropped 22%.

Also, what are you comparing to get the 3DS at only a 20% drop YoY? It's -35%.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
3DS May and June performance was definitely thanks to the 2DS price cut, otherwise it would have performed worse.

Surely it helped, is not what i said.

March was a worse month than February. Weekly average dropped 22%.

PS4 was down MOM by 18% and down in weekly avg by 35%, this with The Division release.

XBO was down MOM and down in weekly avg by 22% (same as 3DS), this with The Division release and most important an official pricedrop.

3DS was down MOM by seriusly an insignificant margin with....... nothing. seriusly nothing. While February got Fire Emblem fates with a bundle and Pokémon first gen digitally and another Pokémon bundle, March was only 3% down MOM, which is VERY good if you look at PS4/XBO.

I mean i remember the March prediction thread, if i remember correctly only Ethomaz predicted 170k for 3DS, all others users way less than that. If i remember correctly your prediction was about 150k?

EDIT: 140k

Mine was 135k as well. Is impossible say 3DS didn't do better than expect that month.

But anyway, look at the trend if others region...
If 3DS was up MOM by a good margin in Italy / UK, and in Japan was flat (even if Pokémon GO released way after the west so that's normal), why USA should be down?

Again, i know Amazon is not all ecc, but for USA is the only thing we have, and show that 3DS is gonna have a close month with PS4 (even if was sold out the last week, while in the others stores was in stock), and outside USA we have continue news about 3DS boost.

Really don't get why USA should be difference.

Also, what are you comparing to get the 3DS at only a 20% drop YoY? It's -35%.

Wrong math lol
 
I'm by no means dismissing the possibility that you guys will be right I just think my prediction is more likely because I hold historical norms to a higher degree of importance than the other pertinent data.
Pokémon Go is such an anormally that historical norms might step aside for a moment. It's like if you had a flowershop in central London in September '97 and stuck to your historical norms for supply management.
Whelp looks like my tag is no longer sales GAF relevant... Not sure what I did to deserve that.
Rex Novis - Danger Seeker
a cookie for those who get the reference
 
I'm by no means dismissing the possibility that you guys will be right I just think my prediction is more likely because I hold historical norms to a higher degree of importance than the other pertinent data.

Pokémon Go is such an anormally that historical norms might step aside for a moment. It's like if you had a flowershop in central London in September '97 and stuck to your historical norms for supply management.
Whelp looks like my tag is no longer sales GAF relevant... Not sure what I did to deserve that.
Rex Novis - Danger Seeker
a cookie for those who get the reference
 

Welfare

Member
Surely it helped, is not what i said.

I read what you posted as if the 2DS price cut wasn't going to give a good boost to sales. That 71% MoM increase / 37% weekly average increase in June wouldn't have happened without the 2DS price cut.

PS4 was down MOM by 18% and down in weekly avg by 35%, this with The Division release.

XBO was down MOM and down in weekly avg by 22% (same as 3DS), this with The Division release and most important an official pricedrop.

3DS was down MOM by seriusly an insignificant margin with....... nothing. seriusly nothing. While February got Fire Emblem fates with a bundle and Pokémon first gen digitally and another Pokémon bundle, March was only 3% down MOM, which is VERY good if you look at PS4/XBO.

You can not look at MoM when comparing February and March because of March being 5 weeks. Why bring up it only being down 3% MoM like it's something special (it's not for the 3DS when it was up MoM in 2013 and 2014) when the XB1 was only down 2% MoM?

I mean i remember the March prediction thread, if i remember correctly only Ethomaz predicted 170k for 3DS, all others users way less than that. If i remember correctly your prediction was about 150k?

EDIT: 140k

Mine was 135k as well. Is impossible say 3DS didn't do better than expect that month.
Mine was 140k, but that was because I underestimated Fire Emblem.

But anyway, look at the trend if others region...
If 3DS was up MOM by a good margin in Italy / UK, and in Japan was flat (even if Pokémon GO released way after the west so that's normal), why USA should be down?

Again, i know Amazon is not all ecc, but for USA is the only thing we have, and show that 3DS is gonna have a close month with PS4 (even if was sold out the last week, while in the others stores was in stock), and outside USA we have continue news about 3DS boost.

Really don't get why USA should be difference.
I think it'll be up in weekly average and MoM.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
I read what you posted as if the 2DS price cut wasn't going to give a good boost to sales. That 71% MoM increase / 37% weekly average increase in June wouldn't have happened without the 2DS price cut.

What i said is that yes, it did a good boost to 3DS, but i honestly didn't expect that, i mean not that much, expecially June, and i think i'm not the only one.

You can not look at MoM when comparing February and March because of March being 5 weeks. Why bring up it only being down 3% MoM like it's something special (it's not for the 3DS when it was up MoM in 2013 and 2014) when the XB1 was only down 2% MoM?

Because XBO got an OFFICIAL pricedrop and The Division release. You may think The Division did nothing for hardware, ok, but it still got an official pricedrop, so for XBO the increase/drop MOM or in weekly sales should have been way better than 3DS, while in the end was the same, even if 3DS got nothing while XBO an official pricedrop (and The Division)

Mine was 140k, but that was because I underestimated Fire Emblem.

In March?

I think it'll be up in weekly average and MoM.

Well then we agree it will be up, i was originally talking with Rex who expect a 15% MOM drop, or a 6% weekly sales increase, which is quite low, July or not July imo.

******************************************************************

Honestly i think most of you are too "worry" to predict a good month for 3DS because you think could be strange, but at the same time you see all sings show 3DS should have a better month than you expect.

I think you should just go bolder than that. There is a really strong possible 3DS this month will do way better than last month, i think you know that but for some reason you wanna be conservate.
 

Welfare

Member
Because XBO got an OFFICIAL pricedrop and The Division release. You may think The Division did nothing for hardware, ok, but it still got an official pricedrop, so for XBO the increase/drop MOM or in weekly sales should have been way better than 3DS, while in the end was the same, even if 3DS got nothing while XBO an official pricedrop (and The Division)
The XB1 did disappoint in March, but that has nothing to do with the 3DS performing in March, which was nothing special.

In March?
I somehow confused March with February. Yeah I expected a worse drop because I didn't expect the 3DS to hold as well as it did.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
The XB1 did disappoint in March, but that has nothing to do with the 3DS performing in March, which was nothing special.

I think XBO in March did about right. February is WAY stronger than March, is not even close with the situation we have in June to July or September to October, February is the stronger month of the year withouth holidays. Sells the about the same in March as in February is not bad, even with 5 weeks.

And in a scenario where a console has not one, but two important release in February, and two bundle, while March has nothing, then yes is very good be flat MOM.

I somehow confused March with February. Yeah I expected a worse drop because I didn't expect the 3DS to hold as well as it did.

...Well that's kinda confirm what i said? :p
 
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