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August 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes September 8th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
CosmicQueso
Member
noobie, as late as something memey about teraflops
perfectchaos007
Member
I thought I had more time.
I THOUGHT I HAD MORE TIME!!!
I THOUGHT I HAD MORE TIME!!!
Isn't deadline September 8?
Xenoflare
Member
Predictions are closed, it's at the end of the last page.
The data sometimes could get leaked ahead of it's "official" time
NOW BRING ON THE NUMBERS
Primethius
Banned
Thread title has incorrect date. The OP lists the correct timing.
Yeah, was looking at a calendar of August instead of September when posting the original deadline. Fixed it pretty quickly in the OP, though, and made a post about it on Aug. 26th.
NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - Aug-2016
1. XB1 - 284K
2. 3DS - 174K
3. PS4 - 170K
4. WIU - 24K
Predicting a pretty big landslide for XB1 this month. Wonder if it'll surprise even more going higher. Seems we almost never fully take into account these kinds of impacts to the monthly results (e.g. PS4 with White/Destiny bundle, 3DS and Pokemon Go effect).
NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - Aug-2016
1. XB1 - 284K
2. 3DS - 174K
3. PS4 - 170K
4. WIU - 24K
Predicting a pretty big landslide for XB1 this month. Wonder if it'll surprise even more going higher. Seems we almost never fully take into account these kinds of impacts to the monthly results (e.g. PS4 with White/Destiny bundle, 3DS and Pokemon Go effect).
Primethius
Banned
Personally, I think the aggregate for the XB1 is quite low and people are really underestimating the impact of a Slim revision.
If the XB1 numbers are anywhere near that, I'm considering the Slim a failure.
Xenoflare
Member
The Xbox One S seems to be pretty well stocked around me, but then again I am in Canada and everything is just inflating.
I'm not sure, I got one and I love it, but I will be pleasantly surprised if it ever makes over 250K.
I am actually terrible at numbers so that was pretty much an asspull.
The problem is that the cheaper models of the slim are not available until the 3rd week of the month.
What were the first month numbers for the 360S and PS3 Slim?
ThoughtsOfSpeaking
Banned
You probably will think the PS4 slim is a failure as well then because I'm not expecting much higher a jump for that either.
The Scorpio announcement at the same time as the one S really will have a marked effect on sales of the slim, just Neo is going to effect sales of the PS4 slim.
There is no point in comparing to previous revisions because we have never been in a situation where a console manufacturer is both showing off new hardware, but telling potential buyers that something better is just round the corner.
Welfare
Member
Kinda depends on how well the fat models held, I think. The Slim could do close to the 180,700 Xbox 360 slims that were sold in June 2010 but 100k fat models would be 280k.
500GB and 1TB models launched in the 4th week.
360S was 180.7k in June 2010 and I don't think we got PS3S numbers.
If Scorpio had any effect on hardware sales we would already see the effect now, yet Xbox One sales grew in June and stayed flat in July. The consumers that buy $299 hardware won't wait a year for a $499 device that is nothing but "6 Teraflops" and a code name, and the consumers wanting to buy a $299 PS4 are not overspending +$100 on a 4K device that isn't even going to be targeted towards them.
Primethius
Banned
Both quotes are fair points. But my reasoning is that July had lower sales then one would expect given the firesale that was occurring, there is bound to be some spill over there.
And if all the XB1 pulls is 260-280k, that indicates to me that the Slim revision wasn't good enough to offset, even for a couple of months, the significant downward trend of the XB1 over last year.
And that spells bad times for MS.
If PS4 Slim comes out in September (say next week) and PS4 sales are below <400k, yea, I'd consider it a failure.
Then again, PS4 sales have been pretty bad in NA for the past couple of months.
slavesnyder
Member
Depends on pricepoint as the ps4slim has no real added value.
If it's the same price expect no push.
50$ off and I'm with you.
mejin
Member
NOoooooooo....I missed this month. :-(
ThoughtsOfSpeaking
Banned
Scorpio is not going to have an effect on sales of the regular model for the simple fact nobody is upgrading to another regular.
The Scorpio effect will be people who would have normally upgraded to a slim who now will wait.
Conversely, people who upgrade from a OG to a Xbox S are less likely to be a day one buyer of Scorpio.
The close proximity of the Neo + slim release kinda alievates this problem, but it doesn't remove it entirely. There will be PS4 slim buyers who will never upgrade to NEO and Neo buyers who will wait it out until the Neo approaches OG or even Slim price points. These same people would of bought a slim day one if it was the only thing available.
archnemesis
Member
[3DS] 158k
[PS4] 155k
[WIU] 23k
[XB1] 235k
[PS4] 155k
[WIU] 23k
[XB1] 235k
Donny, since many people didn't predicted the month, are you ok if they get more time to predict?
slavesnyder
Member
It's measured in GB (Greenbergs).
So far the Greenbergometer hasn't indicated too much activity.
Being sold without software (given the box we have pictures of), the slim at $299 would honestly leave me cold as a buyer and thinking "yeah, I'll wait for a $249 slim around the Holidays.
OG 500 Gb PS4 w/ BlopsIII @ $349
Slim 500 Gb PS4 (cheaper made, no optical) w/ no software @ $299?
Does not compute imo, except if you really don't think about it and just look at the base price.
I don't think so.
Xbox 360 S sold "only" 40% of the total in june 2010, so the bigger mover of hardware was the price drop of old Xbox 360 models.
Now the price drop of old models started earlier and Xbox One S was initially available only in a 2TB version more expensive.
Welfare
Member
So PS4 Slim is $299 and launches on the 15th and PS4 Pro is $399 and launches November 10th.
Thanks to Wario. XB1 Battlefield 1 1TB bundle October 18, 2016 https://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/B01LI1ZUW2/81-521-20/
Minecraft 500GB bundle September 27, 2016 https://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/B01L1Y0RZQ/10-5009-20/
Thanks to Wario. XB1 Battlefield 1 1TB bundle October 18, 2016 https://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/B01LI1ZUW2/81-521-20/
Minecraft 500GB bundle September 27, 2016 https://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/B01L1Y0RZQ/10-5009-20/
slavesnyder
Member
299 for the slim is okayish but nothing to set sales on fire.
Pro has a very good price and should throttle PS4 sales in the 2 months wait. November and December will be a massive harvest.
Eh, crazier things could've happened, like Shigeru Miyamoto announcing a Mario game during the Apple Co- oh, right.
Microsoft insists in bundles of third party games with the 1TB model. Would have much better effect using the 500GB model.
slavesnyder
Member
That really sounds like nonsense.
They deserve more flak for this.
If the other threads on this are any indication they are getting plenty of it. I just can't rationalize it from a sales perspective when you're pushing 4K media. Was it going to cause the price to be too high or eat too far into their margins?
Maybe it really is true that MS completely caught them off guard with the S.
slavesnyder
Member
Boyes left and took the mojo with him.
OctaviusZarda
Neo Member
[3DS] 210k
[PS4] 160k
[WIU] 25k
[XB1] 300k
[PS4] 160k
[WIU] 25k
[XB1] 300k
I think bundling gears 4 would be better for the 500Gb. That 1 would be the most purchased most likely, and in turn it keeps the population high and they make money off the gears cards
Still not sure why it took them this long to bundle mine craft. I thought it would've been a no brainer but instead we get a Lego movie game bundle as the "family" bundle option
edit: it looks like Wario also found a 500gb BF1 bundle
Gears 4 bundle for $449 is bizarre. MS is exploring some fans like they did with Halo 5 bundle.
That's great.
Primethius
Banned
PS4 Slim priced at $299 means I don't really expect it to provide much of a boost in September. They're probably going to drop it to $249 for the holidays to cleanup. But the initial bump will be fairly mediocre.
As for UHD and 4K (and even HDR), as someone who is buying the PS4 Pro, I honestly don't care that it's not included. Especially on a personal level if it means the pricing is cheaper.
Hell, I could do without HDR as well but that seems to be something Sony has in all PS4's.
As for UHD and 4K (and even HDR), as someone who is buying the PS4 Pro, I honestly don't care that it's not included. Especially on a personal level if it means the pricing is cheaper.
Hell, I could do without HDR as well but that seems to be something Sony has in all PS4's.
Xenoflare
Member
At this pricing I almost see no reason to get the Slim, but however I do think it has quite of a wiggle room for steep sales and bundles.
The pro has a much more powerful hardware and twice the HDD space seems like a no brainer judged on MSRP alone.
Primethius
Banned
Okay, Slim pricing makes much more sense now.
PS4 Slim + UC4 for $299
I take back what I said about it's impact earlier.
PS4 Slim + UC4 for $299
I take back what I said about it's impact earlier.
CosmicQueso
Member
Well, I'm still shocked at the lack of UHD drive. I would have bet the house that it would have been included. Madness.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Sony just left the door wide open for Nintendo with that move.
One would assume that Sony knows the UHD Bluray market better than anyone else. Still very much surprised by the move. If nothing else just for feature parity sake.
According to Andrew House in an interview, Sony isn't seeing much demand for UHD physical media, hence the mention of only streaming UHD content.
I suspect PS5 will include it though, since by then 4K sets and content will be relatively ubiquitous.
Prototype Viktor
Member
[3DS] 160k
[PS4] 158k
[WIU] 25k
[XB1] 170k
[PS4] 158k
[WIU] 25k
[XB1] 170k
slavesnyder
Member
I figured that a game coming bundle was sort of implied/a given to begin with. It still doesn't really address the value proposition that the UHD sort makes apparent against the competing brand... which offers two (?) games. Having a game bundled is the defacto natural state of all consoles sans the 3DS, and it doesn't even bundle in its power adapter!
Dunno, I still feel generally underwhelmed.
It's pretty good value for someone who wants to pick up a PS4 next week. Personally I would not buy a slim when for a $100 more you could get a Pro but I realize that is not the case for most people/parents picking up consoles for the holidays.