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August 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes September 8th

D

donny2112

Member
ITT, predict for the NPD August 2016 retail period (July 31-August 27, 2016) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, September 6th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: July 31-August 27, 2016 (4 weeks, July was 4 weeks)
NPD Physical Release: Thursday, September 8th @ 4 p.m. EDT (public thread with physical+digital posted 1 week later on September 15th ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:
Note: WIU will only be counted for unit results and cardinal order bonus. It is not included for point results directly.

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K       [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000    [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000     [XB1] - 200000


Potential hardware impacting events in August:
Xbox One S 2TB released Aug. 2 @ $399 (26 days)
Xbox One S 1TB Madden bundle released Aug. 23 @ $349 (5 days)
Xbox One S 500GB Halo bundle released Aug. 23 @ $299 (5 days)
New 3DS (non-XL) bundle released Aug. 27 @ $149 (2 days)

Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

July's Results (used for predictions)
3DS - ~185K
Aquamarine @ Gamrconnect/VGC per NPD said:
XB1 - 171.1k
PS4 - 161.2k
WIU - 24.9k
Click to expand...

July 2015 NPD thread
August 2015 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Uh, anyone home?

Well... since no one is here...

Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of July and August.Both of these months have 4 weeks. I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for August to help show how August might be impacted by certain software *cough*MADDEN*cough*. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts.

Code: 
2010

Xbox 360 July: 443,500 / 4 = 110,875
Xbox 360 August: 356,700 / 4 = 89,175

Weekly average down 20%

PS3 July: 214,500 / 4 = 53,625
PS3 August: 226,000 / 4 = 56,500

Weekly average up 5%

Wii July: 253,900 / 4 = 63,475
Wii August: 244,300 / 4 = 61,075

Weekly average down 4%

Code: 
Notable Releases in August

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Madden NFL 11 [3 weeks] [920,800]
Mafia II [1 week] [121,600]

[u]PS3[/u]
Madden NFL 11 [3 weeks] [893,600]

PS3 Slim 160GB model $299 [2 weeks]

Code: 
2011

Xbox 360 July: 277K / 4 = 69,250
Xbox 360 August: 308K / 4 = 77,000

Weekly average up 11%

PS3 July: 145K / 4 = 36,250
PS3 August: 218K / 4 = 54,500

Weekly average up 50%

Wii July: 190K / 4 = 47,500
Wii August: 190K / 4 = 47,500

Weekly average flat 0%

Code: 
Notable Releases in August

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Deus Ex: Human Revolution [1 week]

[u]PS3[/u]
PS3 Slim 160GB model $249 [2 weeks]
PS3 Slim 320GB model $349 [2 weeks]

Deus Ex: Human Revolution [1 week]

Code: 
2012

Xbox 360 July: 203K / 4 = 50,750
Xbox 360 August: 193K / 4 = 48,250

Weekly average down 5%

PS3 July: 139K / 4 = 34,750
PS3 August: 143K / 4 = 35,750

Weekly average up 3%

Wii July: 69k / 4 = 17,250
Wii August: 60k / 4 = 15,000

Weekly average down 13%

Code: 
Notable Releases in August

N/A

Code: 
2013

Xbox 360 July: 107K / 4 = 26,750
Xbox 360 August: 96k / 4 = 24,000

Weekly average down 10%

PS3 July: 79k / 4 = 19,750
PS3 August: 71k / 4 = 17,750

Weekly average down 10%

Wii July: 34k / 4 = 8,500
Wii August: 30k / 4 = 7,500

Weekly average down 12%

Wii U July: 29k / 4 = 7,250
Wii U August: 31K / 4 = 7,750

Weekly average up 7%

Code: 
Notable Releases in August

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Madden NFL 25 [1 week]
Saints Row IV [2 weeks]
Disney Infinity [2 weeks]
Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Blacklist [2 weeks]

[u]PS3[/u]
PS3 Super Slim 12GB  $199 [3 weeks]

Madden NFL 25 [1 week]
Saints Row IV [2 weeks]
Disney Infinity [2 weeks]
Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Blacklist [2 weeks]

[u]Wii U[/u]
Pikmin 3 [4 weeks] [115k]

Code: 
2014

Xbox 360 July: 54k / 4 = 13,500
Xbox 360 August: 50k / 4 = 12,500

Weekly average down 7%

Xbox One July: 131K / 4 = 32,750
Xbox One August: 160K / 4 = 40,000

Weekly average up 22%

PS3 July: 32k / 4 = 8,000
PS3 August: 27k / 4 = 6,750

Weekly average down 16%

PS4 July: 187K / 4 = 46,750
PS4 August: 190k / 4 = 47,500

Weekly average up 2%

Wii July: 14k / 4 = 3,500
Wii August: 13k / 4 = 3,250

Weekly average down 7%

Wii U July: 81k / 4 = 20,250
Wii U August: 59k / 4 = 14,750

Weekly average down 27%

Code: 
Notable Releases in August

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Madden NFL 15 [1 week] [>242k]

[u]Xbox One[/u]
Madden 15 bundle $399 [1 week] [41k]

Madden 15 [1 week] [>297k]
Diablo 3 [2 weeks] [<112k]

[u]PS3[/u]
Madden NFL 15 [1 week] [>176k]

[u]PS4[/u]
Madden 15 [1 week] [>385k]
Diablo 3 [2 weeks] [<156k]

Code: 
2015

Xbox 360/PS3/Wii = Basically dead (and some months have not leaked yet for 2015) 

Xbox One July: 187,800 / 4 = 46,950
Xbox One August: 202K / 4 = 50,500

Weekly average up 8%

PS4 July: 217,000 / 4 = 54,250
PS4 August: 209k / 4 = 52,250

Weekly average down 4%

Wii U July: 45.900 / 4 = 11,475
Wii U August: 43k / 4 = 10,750

Weekly average down 6%

Code: 
Notable Releases in August

[u]Xbox One[/u]
40-Inch 1080p TV Bundle $499 at Best Buy [1 week]
Madden 16 1TB  bundle $399 [2 weeks]
Gears of War Ultimate Edition 500GB Bundle $349 [1 week]

Madden 16 [1 week]
Gears of War Ultimate Edition [1 week]
Rare Replay [4 weeks] [<109k]

[u]PS4[/u]
Madden 16 with every PS4 for free at Gamestop and Amazon [1 week]

Madden 16 [1 week]

Code: 
2016 July Weekly Averages

Xbox One: 171,100 / 4 = 42,775
PS4: 161,200 / 4 = 40,300
Wii U: 24,900 / 4 = 6,225

Some notes:

- The weekly average going into August is slightly down from July. There was a big, random increase for the 7th gen in 2011 and I don&#8217;t know why as Madden got pushed to September, and no other year has had that type of increase, so I will remove it as an outlier.

The Xbox 360 dropped an average of 11%, but in 2010 the average was worse than usual because of slowed demand for the 360S. The average drop without 2010 is 8%.

The Xbox One has had Madden bundles in both 2014 and 2015, in addition to Gears of War Ultimate Edition in 2015. Because of this, it is the only console in this comparison to be up from July in August, with it going up by an average of 15%.

IMPORTANT NOTE
The Xbox One S launched this August. Slim models always increase sales by a big amount.

Sony liked to release new models for the PS3 in August, but even then the average drop was 4%.

PS4 has been pretty flat in performance, with averaging a 1% drop.

Both the Wii and Wii U drop an average of 9%.

Recap.

360 weekly average drop: -8% to -11%
PS3 weekly average drop: -4%
Wii weekly average drop: -11%

XB1 weekly average rise: +15%
PS4 weekly average drop: -1%
WIU weekly average drop: -11%

Average of Averages: ~3% to -4%

- The biggest August ever recorded between the 7th and 8th gen was the Wii with 453,000 back in 2008. Second biggest? Wii again with 403,600 back in 2007.
 
J

jjonez18

Member
[XB1] 315K
[3DS] 165K
[PS4] 160K
[WIU] 25k

No Man's Sky: 400k
Madden: 1.2m (45% on XB1)

Expecting the S to really pay off over the holidays. Nice sized bump in the short term, but it's easily doing over 1.5m in Nov and Dec. PS4 gonna continue to lament until it either gets a pricecut and/or a slim.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Wow. Really slow thread. No one even caught that I had the wrong dates in the OP for the cutoff and release! OP updated with the correct dates now. (^_^)
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
[XB1] 325K
[3DS] 205K
[PS4] 157K
[WIU] 22K

...Donny, in the possible hardware impact you missed the New 3DS pricedrop, $150 with Mario 3DLand bundle.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Ryng_tolu said:
...Donny, in the possible hardware impact you missed the New 3DS pricedrop, $150 with Mario 3DLand bundle.
Click to expand...

Will add in the n3DS bundle. Is it a price drop, though? The n3DS hasn't had a non-limited release in the U.S., so maybe there hasn't been a normal MSRP set for the system. Compared to the previous limited releases, this one is a lot cheaper, though. It's what the regular DS launched at now.
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
[PS4] 150k
[XB1] 300k
[3DS] 190k
[WIU] 25k

Ryng_tolu said:
[XB1] 350K
[3DS] 205K
[PS4] 165K
[WIU] 22K

...Donny, in the possible hardware impact you missed the New 3DS pricedrop, $150 with Mario 3DLand bundle.
Click to expand...

Almost 200k differential? mmh. Will be an "interesting" month anyways :)
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
donny2112 said:
Will add in the n3DS bundle. Is it a price drop, though? The n3DS hasn't had a non-limited release in the U.S., so maybe there hasn't been a normal MSRP set for the system. Compared to the previous limited releases, this one is a lot cheaper, though. It's what the regular DS launched at now.
Click to expand...

I hearded it was a pricedrop.

Though i don't know the official 3DS price in USA, i live in Europe.

Elandyll said:
Almost 200k differential? mmh. Will be an "interesting" month anyways :)
Click to expand...

i based my XBO estimate on how did the 360 slim first month, which boosted 360 to 452,000 unit.

I expect XBO to do about 100k under that cause i don't think after that XBO can continue to sells at the 360 levels, but still a nice boost.

PS4 estimate is basically cause lot of recent Slim rumor should hurt the sales, but No man's Sky can help it a bit.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Ryng_tolu said:
PS4 estimate is basically cause lot of recent Slim rumor should hurt the sales, but No man's Sky can help it a bit.
Click to expand...

But that never happens. Internet rumors don't slow sales down just like how Scoprio's/XB1 S official announcement and Neo rumors haven't impacted XB1/PS4 sales regardless of Gamestop says.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Welfare said:
But that never happens. Internet rumors don't slow sales down just like how Scoprio's/XB1 S official announcement and Neo rumors haven't impacted XB1/PS4 sales regardless of Gamestop says.
Click to expand...

More like rumors we saw A LOT of leaks, with many photo on internet.

I agree with you Neo and Scorpio should have not decreased XBO/PS4 sales by much, but i think this time is a bit difference...

Also i expect a minimal impact, i still see PS4 up MOM so... btw, if you don't believe PS4 slim leaks will hurt PS4 sales, you do you expect PS4 down MOM?
 
C

CalamityPixel

Member
Welfare said:
But that never happens. Internet rumors don't slow sales down just like how Scoprio's/XB1 S official announcement and Neo rumors haven't impacted XB1/PS4 sales regardless of Gamestop says.
Click to expand...

Also I gotta say I don't think the PS4 slim news blew up that big. A lot of people I've talked to still don't know it exists.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Ryng_tolu said:
More like rumors we saw A LOT of leaks, with many photo on internet.

I agree with you Neo and Scorpio should have not decreased XBO/PS4 sales by much, but i think this time is a bit difference...

Also i expect a minimal impact, i still see PS4 up MOM so... btw, if you don't believe PS4 slim leaks will hurt PS4 sales, you do you expect PS4 down MOM?
Click to expand...

Leaks don't slow down sales. There is no evidence for this.

PS4 is experiencing natural sales slow down in June and July, and the XB1 has actually beat the natural June to July drop by having an increase in its weekly average. Scorpio and Neo are devices that will be purchased by the hardcore, the very same hardcore that have more than likely already purchased an XB1/PS4. A consumer that buys consoles at <$299 isn't go to wait months to a year for a +$400 device. They just buy the <$299 console.

I think the PS4 will be down MoM because nothing unique has happened this month.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Welfare said:
Leaks don't slow down sales. There is no evidence for this.

PS4 is experiencing natural sales slow down in June and July, and the XB1 has actually beat the natural June to July drop by having an increase in its weekly average. Scorpio and Neo are devices that will be purchased by the hardcore, the very same hardcore that have more than likely already purchased an XB1/PS4. A consumer that buys consoles at <$299 isn't go to wait months to a year for a +$400 device. They just buy the <$299 console.

I think the PS4 will be down MoM because nothing unique has happened this month.
Click to expand...

I talk about slim, not Neo/Scorprio :-/

Also PS4 this month has No man's Sky which apparently sold very good in UK and Steam. Better than nothing, but overall i expect +- 5% of last month, nothing more.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Ryng_tolu said:
I talk about slim, not Neo/Scorprio :-/

Also PS4 this month has No man's Sky which apparently sold very good in UK and Steam. Better than nothing, but overall i expect +- 5% of last month, nothing more.
Click to expand...

Still no evidence that leaks, slim or new console, affect sales of current consoles. Slim leaks are just pictures that only the internet knows about and even then, no one knows the release date or price of the thing, so it has even less relevance to casual consumers even if they did somehow hear about the slim before the Sony conference.

Also, looking to Amazon, it looks like No Man's Sky actually had no effect on PS4 sales? Both it and the no game SKU fell in rankings in that week.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Welfare said:
Still no evidence that leaks, slim or new console, affect sales of current consoles.
Click to expand...

I never said that. It's just what i believe... Btw now that i think so, July got prime day which boosted sales a bit?

Then i'll go with PS4 down a bit even with No Man's Sky..
 
V

Vena

Member
Totally missed this even being made.

Welfare said:
But that never happens. Internet rumors don't slow sales down just like how Scoprio's/XB1 S official announcement and Neo rumors haven't impacted XB1/PS4 sales regardless of Gamestop says.
Click to expand...

Having seen the S (friend traded in his old X1 for the S) in person now, I think I can actually say its one of the few smart things Microsoft has truly done with the brand this gen. Which is weird because I didn't think I'd be saying that when they announced it and the Scorpio hand in hand, but the UHD/4K additional functionality definitely helps make it a very nice multimedia machine.

Excellent kit for a media center.
 
P

Primethius

Banned
Will post predictions in a bit but I'm expecting the Xbox to win by a sizeable margin, especially since last month's sales seem to be pointing to a huge pent up demand for the Slim.
 
C

Cow Goes Moo

Member
Sub 300k for a new model seems low to me
My xb1 prediction is probably too high but so far it looks pessimistic for some
Even if it is August with limited releases
And consoles are now even more concnetrated for holidays
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Cow Goes Moo said:
Sub 300k for a new model seems low to me
My xb1 prediction is probably too high but so far it looks pessimistic for some
Even if it is August with limited releases
And consoles are now even more concnetrated for holidays
Click to expand...
Depends on how much wind the stock cleaning of July took away. First promos for S appear already.
 
R

Reineldinho

Member
Let's try:

[3DS] 120K
[XB1] 380K
[PS4] 185K
[WIU] 22K


I think that 3DS will be down no that the Pokémon Go fever is starting to calm down. XB1 will be up due to the S model. PS4 will be delivering correctly, but not just enough this month to fight the XB1 S momentum. Wii U I really really don't know.
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
slavesnyder said:
Depends on how much wind the stock cleaning of July took away. First promos for S appear already.
Click to expand...
Yeah I'm surprised in seeing the 10% off already. A new model, with upgraded abilities, launching alongside Madden and in the Back to Dorms window?

Kinda weird. #shrug
 
A

Abdiel

Member
I'm really curious to see how the S is doing everywhere else for stores, because we haven't sold out of them anywhere. We had our burst of preorders, and then some initial interest beyond that, but it really hasn't been all that explosive. The reduced price models have helped more interest, but again, neither bundle has come close to selling out in any store within 200 miles of my home store without any replenishing shipments so far.

They've still had enough new hardware interest to most likely win out over the ps4 for the month in our stores.

Though there hasn't been any dip in ps4 momentum due to comments on the slim or anything. That's basically a non factor. Ps4 keeps trucking along. Just a matter of price saturation I think. New model at a lower price and the premium model will be interesting to see.
 
V

Vena

Member
slavesnyder said:
Depends on how much wind the stock cleaning of July took away. First promos for S appear already.
Click to expand...

Elandyll said:
Yeah I'm surprised in seeing the 10% off already. A new model, with upgraded abilities, launching alongside Madden and in the Back to Dorms window?

Kinda weird. #shrug
Click to expand...

Wasn't that from Target Day? Pretty sure everything was 10% off and has nothing to do with the S specifically. Or is there some other discount I am unaware of?

This seems like trying to read tea leaves, and very premature.
 
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