Cesare Borgia
Banned
Republicans are scared about 2018. Tonight isn't pretty for them, although of course Estes will/should win.
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Kansas 04 special election results thread
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Four_Chamber
Member
It's more the DCCC that is involved. The DNC is more big picture in its involvement but it certainly sets the strategy for the 50 states. I hope Perez/Ellison see what happened in Kansas as inspiration- if the race in ruby red Kansas (which has idiotically elected Brownback several times) is competitive, that can only mean good things nationally when 2018 elections roll around. Build a good slate and Congress will suddenly become a lot tighter.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Seriously peeps, this is on the DCCC.
This close and it could have swung with the right investment and infrastructure.
This close and it could have swung with the right investment and infrastructure.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
He's actually bounced back a little and is back up to 46%. Not enough to win though 
You need a better strategy than to just dump big dem money in red districts like this. It's going to have to be way more indirect.
It's not "on" anybody. This is an amazing result for dems. Let's not start fighting.
R+30 not 15
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Yeah, but it wouldn't have hurt.
That was mainly for the peeps who keep saying DNC lol.
This has been a great result overall.
Or, national Democrats getting involved could have turned off Kansas voters who don't like the national Democratic Party.
He won by 60%? Holy crap.
BoogieWoogie
Banned
FYI: "There are over 100 Republicans sitting in districts that wouldn't have been heavily GOP enough to overcome the D swing we saw in KS tonight."
https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/851982607587921920
https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/851982607587921920
Let's see how Georgia goes. If there is a trend, it should be a decently comfortable victory. But, imagine everything right of that -20 swinging the Dems way...
DCCC better start throwing money at Ossoff
Also I can't fucking math tonight, that's a 6% margin, nuts. With Trump, Pence and Cruz on the case, wow.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Totally possible.
Ossoff already has millions and millions. Honestly he doesn't need DNC money. It would be a waste. Montana would be a better strategy. Or even putting infrastructure in place for 2018
No, he didn't. He's using the percentage points the Republicans won by to say "R+30" (Trump +27%, Pompeo +30%), instead of the spread method (Dems have to gain +15% vote, and Repubs would have to lose 15%). R+15 is correct by the traditional political way of tabulating it.
I've heard that the less the DCCC does for Quist the better.
That's the tricky part. There are many areas in country where outright helping is going to hurt some candidates. Sending them money and having a hands off approach is going to work best in these areas.
titiklabingapat
Member
The problem for the GOP is that many gerrymandered districts are now just R+5 or so. They basically exchanged their margins for seats and it will bite them in the ass hardcore if we even only get a very mild uprising next year of D+5. If R+20 districts are in danger, that's a looooooooooot of seats.
Okay. I was gonna say...
Here are KS districts in 2016. With results like tonight, that's 2 out of 4 that could be Ds in 2018:
ErasureAcer
Banned
Democrats wont win unless they show up. Dumbasses cant get off their ass to vote in special election. People still dont care.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Ossoff has sucked up a lot of national money for his race. I'm local (not the district) and dude has prime TV, radio ads everywhere. Doing much better than the GOP in name recognition.
Vestal
Gold Member
THIS IS FUCKING KANSAS. There are not a lot of Democrats in Fucking Kansas
Wow
If dems were to regain 100 seats on the house, would them obtain supermajority?
Losing the Congress that badly after only two years in power would be disastrous for Trump. I would like to see his face after it haha.
I see the hot takes are in. How about waiting for numbers that actually go with your narrative before spouting it?
Someone isn't paying attention to these results
titiklabingapat
Member
They actually did show up this time. The problem was this is a R+25 district.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
lol this is the opposite of what happened
Looks like all precincts except Sedgewick are in. Even if there is zero gain in the remaining votes the percentage should actually shrink unless Estes gains a bunch more votes proportionally in those final tallies. That means 5-6% win for Estes and that means a 25% swing since Pompeo and 20% swing from Trump. Despite not winning the actual seat, it is going scare the ever living shit out of a ton of house republicans.
R+15 not 25.
Roland_Gunner
Member
There are way more Republicans in this district than Dems. If the national Dems invested more in the race the GOP would have done the same. Some times 'infrastructure' isn't enough to overcome the voters.
GiantEnemyGoomba
Member
This is... not really supported by today's election.
ErasureAcer
Banned
81,000 votes in 2016 for the Dem in KS04. Good effort but a lot sat on their ass and that's why the GOP will win again.
bruh
These are just people like ErasureAcer who don't understand American politics, don't mind them. The same types people who think a socialist revolution is coming even though they have no idea how to strategically win elections or pass legislation and we just needed to focus on white working class voters and that racism is all about economics.
Four_Chamber
Member
With a proper election cycle leading up to 2018, Democrats can make a lot of noise in midterms. These special elections are nice and all but are mainly bellweathers for next year.
I would encourage Thompson to run again against Estes. My feeling is that the GOP brand in Kansas is only going to be in worse shape. Estes has no charisma and is not an appealing candidate at all.
I would encourage Thompson to run again against Estes. My feeling is that the GOP brand in Kansas is only going to be in worse shape. Estes has no charisma and is not an appealing candidate at all.
ErasureAcer
Banned
Yup. I'm stupid. You're smart.
Nazgul_Hunter
Member
The Republicans have won that seat by an average of 30+ points since 2002. The fact that they came this close is remarkable in itself. Ossoff might be the happiest candidate in the country tonight.
It was election year, though. Everyone turns out for that.
Yes but it works both ways. 167k votes for the Republican in 2016.
BoogieWoogie
Banned
Also, people are forgetting that Trump will be fucking up for one more year before mid-terms. Christ look what's happened in under 100 days.
A supermajority is 290; if the Democrats gained 100 seats (which, to be clear, will not happen) they'd have 294.
Midterms and special elections always have depressed turnout relative to a presidential year. The Democratic base turned out much better than the GOP did.
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