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July 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, August 8th
Bitch Pudding
Member
With NSW being #1 and PS4 a couple of units behind - let alone Xbox's sales performance in the last couple of months - I strongly doubt that.
lwilliams3
Member
It still sold around twice as much as the original in its first month in the US, the Switch's supply still have issues, and those numbers doesn't include digital sales.
How many Wii U was sold in the US when Splatoon was released anyway?
I've been saying Xbox will take the 'also ran prize' while the PS4 and NX (back then) duke it out if MS kept doing what they were doing.
I'd like to go off on something Obliterator said which is about people losing faith in the brand. I think we're seeing the extent of the 'Phil Spencer - Good Guy(R)' strategy. Certain people mock Sony for their trailers showing games coming 2018 and beyond but I think it sends a strong message ala 'We're focused on gaming and we've got software all the through 2019-2020 and beyond' - it helps sustain momentum and makes it easier to commit to the platform, knowing that there's a roadmap.
It doesn't hurt that there's a new exclusive announcement every other week. Heck, last week we got an annoucment that Sony Japan is co-developing a AAA title with a Chinese developer. It helps keeps the PS4 always relevant to the conversation.
Phil doing the cool uncle schtick was enough to make people believe he's different from Mattrick but after four years his 'the games are coming, I PINKIE SWEAR!! Just...err..buy three years worth of XBL subs, yeah?' is a well that's run out.
I'd like to go off on something Obliterator said which is about people losing faith in the brand. I think we're seeing the extent of the 'Phil Spencer - Good Guy(R)' strategy. Certain people mock Sony for their trailers showing games coming 2018 and beyond but I think it sends a strong message ala 'We're focused on gaming and we've got software all the through 2019-2020 and beyond' - it helps sustain momentum and makes it easier to commit to the platform, knowing that there's a roadmap.
It doesn't hurt that there's a new exclusive announcement every other week. Heck, last week we got an annoucment that Sony Japan is co-developing a AAA title with a Chinese developer. It helps keeps the PS4 always relevant to the conversation.
Phil doing the cool uncle schtick was enough to make people believe he's different from Mattrick but after four years his 'the games are coming, I PINKIE SWEAR!! Just...err..buy three years worth of XBL subs, yeah?' is a well that's run out.
NintendosBooger
Member
Around 4.5 million.
NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - Jul-2017
1. NSW - 260K
2. PS4 - 224K
3. XB1 - 116K
What podcast?
1. NSW - 260K
2. PS4 - 224K
3. XB1 - 116K
What podcast?
lwilliams3
Member
Thanks. So the Switch has a little more than 1/3 of the userbase of the Wii U when the original came out.
Hmm.. considering how the Switch should be close to 6 million right now, it already show how unsuccessful the Wii U was in other countries.
Really? I thought it was considerably lower. Reports show Wii U at 2.9m in "The Americas" by end of March 2015, then 4.8m end of June 2015.
Prior to Splatoon it must have been quite a bit lower than 4.5m (like mid to high 3m?)
MS need to beef up their first party efforts and get more aggressive at not losing 3rd party games.
I'd be shocked if PS4 doesn't end up YoY with the marketing deals/bundles and price cut/holiday promotion incoming. It should end up YoY by a healthy margin.
I'd be shocked if PS4 doesn't end up YoY with the marketing deals/bundles and price cut/holiday promotion incoming. It should end up YoY by a healthy margin.
Skullwaker
Member
It was at 4.65m end of March 2015, and then 4.85m end of June 2015.
Samanosuke Akechi
Member
If Xbox is this low now, how will the X perform at $250 more then the S? By comparison, Sony PS4 pro only sells a fraction of the base model sales. Ppl will be looking for the cheapest and best deals this holiday and a $500 offering of an already struggling console won't do much to reverse the Xbox's declining sales.
Ah my mistake, i see what i was viewing wrong, 190k not 1.9m sold in April-June 2015!
Skullwaker
Member
Yeah, 1.9m would've been insane for a non-holiday quarter.
Hell, it would've been insane for any Wii U quarter, lol.
Splatoon 2 number looks fine imo. You would expect a significant increase over the first, and that is what we're seeing. Adding the fact that Switch has a third of thee install base, and I think Splatoon 2 is primed for legs. Of course, we will see in thr coming months how big those will be.
Switch number is disappointingly low compared to the Japan numbers. Looks like they prioritised Japan, which is a sensibele move, but it would have been nice if the rest of the world got better stock too.
Switch number is disappointingly low compared to the Japan numbers. Looks like they prioritised Japan, which is a sensibele move, but it would have been nice if the rest of the world got better stock too.
I didn't think and just attributed it to the Splatoon effect lol! Dumb dumb.
Shipping times factor in, too. Unless Nintendo is air-shipping systems, there's some extra weeks transit time for systems compared to Japan.
Right, that makes sense. I did see that Gamestop US is apparently getting restock for all its 5k or however many stores, which would indicate a massive restock, so that could line up with this reason as well.
ShadowFox08
Member
Nintendo only sold 200k switches in July? You gotta be kidding me.
Numbers has been leaked few hours ago
Hardware:
NSW: 222K
PS4: 217K (+34.7%)
3DS: 105K (-44.3%)
Software:
PS4: 2299K (+52.0%)
NSW: 736K
3DS: 384K (-49.2%)
Splatoon 2 #1 332k
What caused this huge spike in PS4 Physcial Software? I dont think anything worthwhile launched in this July? Wish our NPD guy can inform the number of new releases for PS4 in this july (2017) vs the last july (2016). What is the percentages of sales for this year (2017) releases vs catalog releases (2016 or earlier releases) and how it varies with last year number...
WhatWeLeftBehind
Member
222k Switches to be exact. It puts Switch at 1794k sold through five months.
For reference:
3DS at 5 months
US: 922k
Wii U at five months
US: 1079k
Graphics Horse
Member
How soon Crash is forgotten
Katana_Strikes
Member
Jarod McChicken
Member
Now that you mention it, it's damn good. There was indeed no significant release on PS4/Xbox One in July, hence Splatoon 2 taking the first place with an average performance. That spike shows how healthy the PS4 ecosystem is right now. When you don't have new software at retail, the back catalog is doing the work + the agressive sales on the digital area. My guess is Crash Bandicoot did a good second month, then you have the usual evergreen titles (GTA V, NBA 2K, Call of Duty, Overwatch, Rainbow Six Siege) and the contributions of solid spring/summer titles like Horizon Zero Dawn and Tekken 7. Final Fantasy XII The Zodiac Age was also released in July.
Here goes to August now, and with Agents of Mayhem being the biggest multiplatform release I can find, I can see Uncharted The Lost Legacy taking the top spot, unless Ark Survival Evolved find a new unsuspected audience with the retail release.
Graphics Horse
Member
But Crash crashed so it can't be that
That's true looking at Spla2's #1 it can't make up all that much. The massive userbase increase last month could be part of it, I guess. Definitely don't think software released in month X is the answer.
Katana_Strikes
Member
Isn't Madden August and usually takes the top? Can't see AoM putting up any fight unless it's some surprise hit out of nowhere which is highly unlikely. Uncharted should do well of course.
Jarod McChicken
Member
Haha never mind, I'm dumb, living in Europe I made the mistake to overlook completely good old Madden. It's out August 25th so yeah, there will be no fight here.
I dont think these numbers include digital sales numbers. I can be wrong
PS4 software got a jump of almost 800k in July to 2299k from ~1500k (from July 2016). and Crash cannot do above 300k. So still there is a gap of 500k.
I will be more interested to see how much all the exclusives of PS4
- Nioh
- Nier
- Horizon
- Crash
- Persona
- Others
have done versus the last year exclusives of First Half including Uncharted 4.
With Gamestop receiving the first restock that rivals the launch it appears the increased production might finally be materializing.
Luckly we should have other indications about increased stock with Obon in Japan ending in a couple of weeks. If Switch stock falls considerably that will give us an indication for next months NA numbers if it remains at the current level(60-100K per week), I'd expect Switch to be >350K for August on the NPD, which would roughly be 75% than majority of slower summer months.
Luckly we should have other indications about increased stock with Obon in Japan ending in a couple of weeks. If Switch stock falls considerably that will give us an indication for next months NA numbers if it remains at the current level(60-100K per week), I'd expect Switch to be >350K for August on the NPD, which would roughly be 75% than majority of slower summer months.
Elvin Atombender
Member
So PS4 sold 2299K of software and Xbox One is below 384K?
That is an astonishing difference.
That is an astonishing difference.
KillerMan91
Member
I would assume that even in these leaks Splatoon 2 being number one is revenue based so Crash can be above it in units sold. Also FFXII remaster launched in July and maybe did decently.
wapplew
Member
All we know is Xbox numbers missing from the leak, don't assumed numbers missing because it's below.
Elvin Atombender
Member
Oh, I thought someone said that NPD list the top 3?
KratosEnergyDrink
Member
Data would be more interesting If the Switch has not been so supply constraint, and still is, at least in US. EU got more Switch shipments since a few days (at least it is available on amazon in some countries).
Would be interesting to see the sales numbers without supply constraints, that would give a more substantial outlook of its potential future/holiday sales.
OrbitalBeard
Member
There's no way that's true. If it is, XB1 sold half as much software as a five month old console.
That was only an assumption for the hardware leak, not NPD numbers in general. These numbers were not officially revealed from NPD btw, it is a leak.
XB1 software is for sure much higher than 384k.
LordRaptor
Member
What are your comparative titles?
It did about double the numbers of Titanfall 2 for example, also an iterative sequel to a new multiplayer IP launched this gen.
Obliterator
Member
Remember Crash is $40 compared to Splatoon 2 $60. It's a revenue based chart.
Crash very likely sold a lot of units. It's probably 2nd for the month in total units sold
Crash very likely sold a lot of units. It's probably 2nd for the month in total units sold
CaviarMeths
Member
Why do people say that Splatoon is much bigger in Japan when ~70% of the sales of the first game came from overseas? This isn't Dragon Quest or Monster Hunter.
OrbitalBeard
Member
You're comparing Japan to the rest of the world. Splatoon is bigger in Japan than any other single region.
But yes, Splatoon is a successful IP pretty much everywhere, that is true.
Much of the time I think it is born out of the fact that Asia is the primary market for many japanese games.
Thats a good points. Thanks
What is the grand scheme of things that make a potential sub-100k US Xbox One number respectable? It's a disastrous result for a few reasons.
- The US is a market where Xbox One and PS4 all the time before 2017 has performed fairly close and even in several months with Xbox One as winner. So to go from being competitive in that market to suddenly sell way below half of the PS4 in June and July and a little above half of PS4 in February, March, April and May* is very bad on it's own and it makes a much, much worse implication for the worldwide sales.
- The US is where Xbox One gets most of its sales (~60%), so that would mean PS4 did more in the US alone in July than Xbox One did worldwide and PS4 did that in a market that is less important for it (~30% of worldwide). So that "only a difference of 120k or so" becomes more than Xbox One can do in total worldwide before adding the huge PS4 worldwide sales.
*The source of the XB1/PS4 2017 month comparisons is this post: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=243872091&postcount=243
ethomaz
Banned
Well it is supposed to be always up YoY because the userbase grew over a year unless of course in the last year you had a big hit that sold millions.
Plus this year catalog looks to be "better" than last year for the first half of the year and that add sales.
ethomaz
Banned
Any idea what is worthwhile in everything else?
$140 million is a big slice of total game market and if Xbox have >$120 million than it is doing quite respectable in comparison to PS4 n Switch
mejin
Member
You're doing the wrong question. What is worthwhile on Xbox to have those numbers?
ethomaz
Banned
Well I can only make guess with these data... PS4 and Switch had close numbers in hardware and supposing the price of both are similar:
PS4 hardware: ~$91 million
Switch hardware: ~$91 million
* I believe PS4 revenue is bigger than Switch due the Pro being sold at $399 but I will stay with 50/50.
Now let's say software is 75/25 for PS4 using the 2299k/736k... I'm again supposing games have close prices between PS4 and Switch.
PS4 software: ~$137 million
Switch software: ~$46 million
In total...
PS4 ~$228 million
Switch ~$137 million
If we assume XB1 did ~$120 million (that is ignoring Vita, PS3, 360, PC, etc... that is indeed a small part):
- XB1 revenue is close to Switch revenue with a way bigger userbase.
- XB1 revenue is close to half PS4 revenue with similar userbase (the difference is around 10% only).
I don't think my assumptions shows anything "quite respectable" for MS... the opposite it is doing pretty bad in US.
frankie_baby
Member
Only 20 million for 360, ps3, vita, wii u, pc seems pretty low
Great SW numbers for ps4, considering it was a slow month.
Why so many people forget that?
Why so many people forget that?