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[Cess007]

Also, Switch #1 in hardware:

“The Nintendo Switch was July’s best-selling hardware platform,” NPD analyst Mat Piscatella said. “[That was] driven by new inventory released in support of the launch of Splatoon 2.”

https://venturebeat.com/2017/08/17/nintendo-switch-outsold-playstation-4-and-xbox-one-last-month/

 

[donny2112]

”Nintendo's Splatoon 2 was the best-selling title of the month," said Piscatella.

The Gamepad part is interesting. Was there some type of sale or something, or did new model controllers pick up some steam from June?

Joycons are expensive.

 

[ethomaz]

Also, Switch #1 in hardware:

We already know that it got leaked early this week.

 

[Jotaka]

No comments from xbox hardware?

 

[Sangetsu-II]

Need dem prediction results. Still nothing?

 

[noobie]

Why so little discussion in NPD threads now.?

I will just request Mr. Mat to tell what type of question we can ask him? because i asked couple of generic question

Spoiler

(without asking numbers or position)

but he overlooked. So i m not sure what type of question we can really ask and what type of discussion we can have in these NPD threads.

 

[panda-zebra]

Why so little discussion in NPD threads now.?

Quality over quantity every time. Threads used to be filled with masses of throwaway congratulations to platform holders, cheerleading and vague "insider" infos that could be interpreted in various ways. Now we have someone from NPD who is prepared to sit down and take the time to discuss the state of play with us.

I will just request Mr. Mat to tell what type of question we can ask him? because i asked couple of generic question

Spoiler

(without asking numbers or position)

but he overlooked. So i m not sure what type of question we can really ask and what type of discussion we can have in these NPD threads.

Maybe you just have to keep asking and if your question seems worth a reply you'll get one.

Spoiler

Or maybe he's got you on ignore like half of GAF

 

[donny2112]

Since not all the results are public, no numerical results are shown here. Also, to prevent backing out the numbers, only the monthly results for the top 2 predictors are shown. Annual results are still full results, though.

NeoGAF Prediction Results - July 2017

Units

1. Kill3r7
2. OrangeGrayBlue


Points

     July 2017                       Overall 2017 Top (6/7)
01.  OrangeGrayBlue         ---.--   Primethius             ---.--
02.  Bitch Pudding          ---.--   noobie                 ---.--
03.                         ---.--   ethomaz                ---.--
04.                         ---.--   BlackBuzzard           ---.--
05.                         ---.--   allan-bh               ---.--
06.                         ---.--   Trust me, I'm a PhD    ---.--
07.                         ---.--   archnemesis            ---.--
08.                         ---.--   Sangetsu-II            ---.--
09.                         ---.--   Sterok                 ---.--
10.                         ---.--   jayu26                 ---.--
11.                         ---.--   mejin                  ---.--
12.                         ---.--   donny2112              ---.--
13.                         ---.--   Hammer24               ---.--
14.                         ---.--   CorporateClown         ---.--
15.                         ---.--   Welfare                ---.--
16.                         ---.--   Elandyll               ---.--
17.                         ---.--   Kayant                 ---.--
18.                         ---.--   theprodigy             ---.--
19.                         ---.--   Fdkn                   ---.--
20.                         ---.--   Darth Smurf X          ---.--
21.                         ---.--   Bitch Pudding          ---.--
22.                         ---.--   pitseleh               ---.--
23.                         ---.--   Kill3r7                ---.--
24.                         ---.--   freefornow             ---.--
25.                         ---.--   robo                   ---.--
26.                         ---.--   KillerMan91            ---.--
27.                         ---.--   Shizza                 ---.--
28.                         ---.--   noshten                ---.--
29.                         ---.--   1993dan1               ---.--
30.                         ---.--   jjonez18               ---.--
31.                         ---.--   Rymuth                 ---.--
32.                         ---.--   Stanng243              ---.--
33.                         ---.--   astrogamer             ---.--
34.                         ---.--   Pachter                ---.--
35.                         ---.--   jroc74                 ---.--
36.                         ---.--   sirronoh               ---.--
37.                         ---.--   vivekTO                ---.--
38.                         ---.--   kyser73                ---.--
39.                         ---.--   Chobel                 ---.--
40.                         ---.--   Opt1kon_               ---.--
41.                         ---.--   Shock32                ---.--
42.                         ---.--   Zedark                 ---.--
43.                         ---.--   slavesnyder            ---.--
44.                         ---.--   skedar897              ---.--
45.                         ---.--   Cow Goes Moo           ---.--
46.                         ---.--   Jigorath               ---.--
47.                         ---.--   Gaspard                ---.--
48.                         ---.--   WillySJ3               ---.--
49.                         ---.--   Graphics Horse         ---.--
50.                         ---.--   Raylan                 ---.--

Congratulations, Kill3r7 (Units) and OrangeGrayBlue (Points)!

 

[donny2112]

Since not all the results are public, this is a "Just for Fun" ranking. The way it works is that the #1 predictor for the month using the actual results is assumed to be 100% correct, and everyone else is measured accordingly. These results are not official and not used in the annual rankings. Since the real results can't be shown, these are a substitute to be used "Just for Fun." (^_^)

NeoGAF "Just for Fun" Prediction Results - July 2017
Note: Uses #1 predictor as "truth" and measures everyone else relative to them.


1. Kill3r7 - 0
2. Trust me, I'm a PhD - 29,000
3. Sikowitz - 31,000
4. archnemesis - 32,000
5. Darth Smurf X - 35,000
5. Sangetsu-II - 35,000
5. ThatRandomCliff - 35,000
8. McMoneyman - 37,000
8. panda-zebra - 37,000
10. Stanng243 - 40,000
11. GAF_Agg - 42,000
11. Grumplestiltskin - 42,000
11. OrangeGrayBlue - 42,000
14. freefornow - 43,000
15. Hammer24 - 47,000
15. Shock32 - 47,000
17. Anderson DL - 50,000
17. Bitch Pudding - 50,000
17. Elandyll - 50,000
17. ethomaz - 50,000
17. mejin - 50,000
22. BlackBuzzard - 54,000
23. Rymuth - 55,000
23. allan-bh - 55,000
25. Prototype Viktor - 57,000
26. sirronoh - 58,000
27. Pachter - 60,000
27. robo - 60,000
29. donny2112 - 64,000
30. Gaspard - 65,000
31. noobie - 67,000
32. vivekTO - 70,000
33. Jasong7777 - 75,000
33. noshten - 75,000
35. 1993dan1 - 76,000
36. astrogamer - 81,000
37. Chobel - 85,000
37. OfficerRaichu15 - 85,000
37. jayu26 - 85,000
40. Welfare - 89,000
41. pitseleh - 90,000
41. skedar897 - 90,000
43. Gradivus - 100,000
43. Jigorath - 100,000
43. gtj1092 - 100,000
46. KillerMan91 - 106,000
47. jbluzb - 109,376
48. Sterok - 110,000
48. WillySJ3 - 110,000
50. CorporateClown - 115,000
51. Graphics Horse - 120,000
51. Stilton Disco - 120,000
51. thestopsign - 120,000
54. Shizza - 125,000
55. Zedark - 130,000
56. LordOcidax - 135,000
57. perfectchaos007 - 137,000
58. jjonez18 - 145,000

 

[Primethius]

Thanks for the prediction roundup Donny, as always.

Whew, I missed this month but still topped out for the year? Oh baby, everything went better than expected.

Edit: Sorry for messing up the triple post!

 

[donny2112]

#1 Predictor by Units

[NSW] 220K
[PS4] 225K
[XB1] 115K

#1 Predictor by Points

[NSW] 243K
[PS4] 219K
[XB1] 128K

Note:
There's a 10 point bonus for getting the order of the systems correct that Kill3r7 missed.

 

[Bitch Pudding]

Well, seems like I improved since last time - which actually isn't a feat since I was dead last...

And thanks donny for your efforts !

 

[Sangetsu-II]

Top 5 fuck yeah!

 

[CorporateClown]

Switch kind of screwed me this month lol. I'll have to be more pessimistic next month!

 

[MatPiscatella]

I will just request Mr. Mat to tell what type of question we can ask him? because i asked couple of generic question

Spoiler

(without asking numbers or position)

but he overlooked. So i m not sure what type of question we can really ask and what type of discussion we can have in these NPD threads.

I remember your posts, and I responded to those I could (unless I missed some, the threads were moving pretty quick for a while there). I don't know for certain which questions I didn't touch on, but generally if I don't respond to certain questions either I can't because I don't know the answer or because it would be inappropriate for me to address. For example, speculating on a company's outlook or strategy isn't something that would be appropriate for me to do. Hope that makes sense.

If you had questions in particular that you'd like me to address or explain why I can't I'd be happy to take another look.

 

[Darth Smurf X]

Top 5

We are both #5. Congrats.

Probably my best month ever.

 

[noobie]

I remember your posts, and I responded to those I could (unless I missed some, the threads were moving pretty quick for a while there). I don't know for certain which questions I didn't touch on, but generally if I don't respond to certain questions either I can't because I don't know the answer or because it would be inappropriate for me to address. For example, speculating on a company's outlook or strategy isn't something that would be appropriate for me to do. Hope that makes sense.

If you had questions in particular that you'd like me to address or explain why I can't I'd be happy to take another look.

Requoting it below, I hope I am clear in what I am trying to ask

Dear Mat I have one question, I hope you can answer. How the 2017 first half exclusives of PS4 had impacted softwares sales of PS4. Let me explain it...

Had it expanded the market like PS4 owners bought regular 3rd party and catalog titles in the same numbers and additionally have bought PS4 exclusives, or the sales of other titles have been negatively impacted meaning PS4 owners bought less 3rd party and catalog titles. or the sales of other titles have positively impacted, more people bought PS4 because of exclusives and then they bought 3rd party titles and catalog titles also.

I think this question has multiple dimension. Sales in terms on numbers, sales in term of percentage with respect to PS4 exclusives, sales of 3rd party titles with respect to the sales of 3rd party on Xbox one (like if in 2016 Xbox average percentage in multiplatform titles was 42% then in 2017 uptil now it has decreased to 40% or increased to 45% because PS4 owners were buying exclusives). And may be other ways.

But your comment on this subject will be very worthy.

 

[MatPiscatella]

Requoting it below, I hope I am clear in what I am trying to ask

Phew, that's quite the question.

I can't get into super specifics.

What I'll say is that sales of title A do not, in almost all cases, impact sales of title B. There are some rare, outlier situations where two similar games may launch on the same day, or where one title is so huge and massive it sucks the air out of the rest of the market for a particular release date. Outside of that, however, it is very difficult to see sales of one game or group of games decreasing sales of another game or group of games.

I say it all the time, but the video game market is not zero sum, the more games that launch the higher sales can generally go. Of course, factors like quality, marketing, etc etc will determine how any particular game will perform. Competitive activities, however, are pretty low on the list.

As for the importance of exclusives, which I think is what your question really is, well I think it's safe to say that the performance of exclusives can explain, to at least some extent, performance of the consoles in the current gen.

I know you'd like more specific numbers around that. Unfortunately, I can't do that. But I hope this at least helps.

 

[Kill3r7]

Since not all the results are public, no numerical results are shown here. Also, to prevent backing out the numbers, only the monthly results for the top 2 predictors are shown. Annual results are still full results, though.

NeoGAF Prediction Results - July 2017

Units

1. Kill3r7
2. OrangeGrayBlue


Points

     July 2017                       Overall 2017 Top (6/7)
01.  OrangeGrayBlue         ---.--   Primethius             ---.--
02.  Bitch Pudding          ---.--   noobie                 ---.--
03.                         ---.--   ethomaz                ---.--
04.                         ---.--   BlackBuzzard           ---.--
05.                         ---.--   allan-bh               ---.--
06.                         ---.--   Trust me, I'm a PhD    ---.--
07.                         ---.--   archnemesis            ---.--
08.                         ---.--   Sangetsu-II            ---.--
09.                         ---.--   Sterok                 ---.--
10.                         ---.--   jayu26                 ---.--
11.                         ---.--   mejin                  ---.--
12.                         ---.--   donny2112              ---.--
13.                         ---.--   Hammer24               ---.--
14.                         ---.--   CorporateClown         ---.--
15.                         ---.--   Welfare                ---.--
16.                         ---.--   Elandyll               ---.--
17.                         ---.--   Kayant                 ---.--
18.                         ---.--   theprodigy             ---.--
19.                         ---.--   Fdkn                   ---.--
20.                         ---.--   Darth Smurf X          ---.--
21.                         ---.--   Bitch Pudding          ---.--
22.                         ---.--   pitseleh               ---.--
23.                         ---.--   Kill3r7                ---.--
24.                         ---.--   freefornow             ---.--
25.                         ---.--   robo                   ---.--
26.                         ---.--   KillerMan91            ---.--
27.                         ---.--   Shizza                 ---.--
28.                         ---.--   noshten                ---.--
29.                         ---.--   1993dan1               ---.--
30.                         ---.--   jjonez18               ---.--
31.                         ---.--   Rymuth                 ---.--
32.                         ---.--   Stanng243              ---.--
33.                         ---.--   astrogamer             ---.--
34.                         ---.--   Pachter                ---.--
35.                         ---.--   jroc74                 ---.--
36.                         ---.--   sirronoh               ---.--
37.                         ---.--   vivekTO                ---.--
38.                         ---.--   kyser73                ---.--
39.                         ---.--   Chobel                 ---.--
40.                         ---.--   Opt1kon_               ---.--
41.                         ---.--   Shock32                ---.--
42.                         ---.--   Zedark                 ---.--
43.                         ---.--   slavesnyder            ---.--
44.                         ---.--   skedar897              ---.--
45.                         ---.--   Cow Goes Moo           ---.--
46.                         ---.--   Jigorath               ---.--
47.                         ---.--   Gaspard                ---.--
48.                         ---.--   WillySJ3               ---.--
49.                         ---.--   Graphics Horse         ---.--
50.                         ---.--   Raylan                 ---.--

Congratulations, Kill3r7 (Units) and OrangeGrayBlue (Points)!

Thx, Donny. Even broken clock is still right twice a day.

 

[Sangetsu-II]

We are both #5. Congrats.

Probably my best month ever.

Congrats to you too, tough competition these days

 

[hanspampel]

Xbox One Sold between 119k and 127k if someone is interested in that number.


And I'm not sure, why so many expected sub 100k or less than 3DS, as the leaker on the other website never said anything about those numbers being the Top 3.

The leak actually specified that this was the Top 3? I thought that was just our assumption.

 

[Mikey Jr.]

Xbox One Sold between 119k and 128k if someone is interested in that number.


And I'm not sure, why so many expected sub 100k or less than 3DS, as the leaker on the other website never said anything about those numbers being the Top 3.

120k is still dogshit though for your strongest market.

If it's 120k in USA, then it is most likely abysmal everywhere else.

Probably why it feels like xbox one has been at 30 million sold for like 2 years, haha.

There seems to be hype for Scorpio, so we'll see what happens there. It's gonna be tough for Ms.

Switch is gonna be huge this holiday at 299 vs 499. And playstation has marketing for HUGE triple A games this fall.
Plus, Sony could drop both consoles by a 100 bucks on black Friday and it would be a massacre.

500 is just such a huge barrier for a mid gen upgrade...
I still to this day can not understand the reasoning that went into that console, specifically in its existence.
Like, hold off for 3 years, do the best you can, then come out fucking swinging with the next xbox.

 

[hanspampel]

120k is still dogshit though

Depends on your perspective, i wouldn't call it dogshit but definitely life support the last 2 months.
Since we now have leaks again and all sales numbers for certain, i would like to address the current sales performance of Xb1 and Ps4 in the US and also add some future outlook.


In May i had an argument with this onemanasylum guy about Ps4 sales being up YoY, but Xb1 heavily down, thanks to all the Ps4 exclusives early in the Year and other reasons. My stance was, that nothing major changed so far and both performed similar to last year. No huge discrepancy that would indicant any big shift.

January - May 2017
Ps4 up 4.1% YoY or 55k units
Xb1 down 6.5% YoY or 58.5k units

So that was right, but boy changed that in June and ongoing into July
Sony released a new special edition Ps4 Slim with more HDD space and also reduced the price by $50 for the launch of that SKU. They also had Crash a huge over performing exclusive titel.
Meanwhile Microsoft told their customer base, that they have something better in stores later the Year to buy. They also have no games to sell consoles (not even huge third party multiplats to drive sales).

June + July 2017
Ps4 up 51.2% YoY or 202.5k units
Xb1 down 27.8% YoY or 106.5k units

Ps4 is 4 times as many units up for just this last 2 months vs the first 5
Xb1 is 2 times as many units down for just this last 2 months vs the first 5
This is a real shift in sales performance, very noticeable and can also be explained by different events caused. A low single digit YoY change is normal fluctuation on the other hand.



Now talking about some Outlook:
I continue to see Xbox One being down significantly over the next 3 Months.
Last year in August Microsoft released the Xbox One S, that gave a noticeable sales boost.
This year in August, Microsoft has nothing. Not even a Madden Bundle. (okay there is a Madden bundle for 2 Days in August and it will sell the most units in September)
September is the Month, where some big games start to hit and that will drive consoles sales, but that should not be enough to match last years Xbox One S release numbers.
October will have new Shadow of War Bundles, the limited Minecraft Bundle, and the first high profile exclusive for Xbox One. But overall for the 3 Months, that will only lessen the YoY decline, not match last years performance. But i do expect the YoY decline to be below this Summer drought in June, July and August. Something between 15 and 25% for the next 3 Months combined.
Between August and October 2016 Xb1 - including the S - sold 936.5k units.
I expect this year to be between 700k and 800k at best

Ps4 on the other hand should continue its momentum. The next 3 Months won't be as strong as June and July. But the initial Ps4 Slim release was very mute last year and this year on the other had, Sony has its full Ps4 Pro and Slim Lineup, new Bundles and marketing deals for Destiny 2 and Fifa 18. Between 20 and 30% YoY growth for the next 3 Months combined is possible.
Between August and October 2016 Ps4 - including the Slim- sold 680.5k units.
I expect this year to be between 800k and 900k

Holiday season and November + December is another topic, i will address later when we have more information about Xb1 X preorders and Ps4 holiday bundles.
It's a totally different ball game, as proven over and over again

 

[Mikey Jr.]

^^^ Nice read!!

 

[Welfare]

Xbox has a $279 500GB Madden bundle out tomorrow.

 

[Kill3r7]

Microsoft has a $279 500GB Madden bundle out tomorrow.

It should be $250. I suspect they will run a free game promo in two weeks.

 

[hanspampel]

Xbox has a $279 500GB Madden bundle out tomorrow.

oh. that slipped my attention
but it won't be enough to match last years 2TB Xbox One S sales. especially as the bundle will be tracked for just 2 days.
27th August is already starting to be September NPD tracking period

August should be as dry as June and July for Xbox One sales compared to last year.
I just see September and October to be better

 

[blakep267]

It should be $250. I suspect they will run a free game promo in two weeks.

I wanna say that they raised the price of the 500 gb bundles from $249 to $279 lately. So likely there's gonna be a $50 price drop for the holidays so the bundles will be $229. I assumed this year would get to $199(without gift cards)

I can also see them doing a free game promo during Destiny launch

 

[Welfare]

I wanna say that they raised the price of the 500 gb bundles from $249 to $279 lately. So likely there's gonna be a $50 price drop for the holidays so the bundles will be $229. I assumed this year would get to $199(without gift cards)

I can also see them doing a free game promo during Destiny launch

Minecraft bundle is $249, but it looks like certain 500GB bundles are also $279 now instead of $299. Don't know when that happened.

I expect December to have the Minecraft bundle at a special $199 price. Other 500GB bundles at $229, 1TB at $279, and that Limited Minecraft bundle at $299. Go all out while your hardcore is buying the One X.

 

[cakely]

Now talking about some Outlook:

...

You portray yourself as an authority, or as someone with inside knowledge, but that's really not actually the case.

 

[Dash_Riprock]

You portray yourself as an authority, or as someone with inside knowledge, but that's really not actually the case.

So like the rest of GAF, then.

 

[Bitch Pudding]

You portray yourself as an authority, or as someone with inside knowledge, but that's really not actually the case.

Does he? From my point of view it is clear that he only made his very own assumptions, based on recent and well known sales performances as well as also well known releases in the upcoming months. Not saying I agree with it in every aspect, but I don't see him pretending he has inside knowledge.

 

[hanspampel]

Does he? From my point of view it is clear that he only made his very own assumptions, based on recent and well known sales performances as well as also well known releases in the upcoming months. Not saying I agree with it in every aspect, but I don't see him pretending he has inside knowledge.

Maybe he's talking about the Xbox One numbers?
But those are obtained by simple math using the known leaks for Ps4 + Switch and prediction results



I just found the sales pattern to be to obvious and prominent to be unnoticed.
One could argue, that Ps4 would be up YoY a bit more substantial if we just look at the January - April timeframe and leave out May, because Sony had a huge exclusive with UC4 including Bundles in 2016.
That would result in Ps4 being up 6.6% YoY or 75k units

But that is not unique to Sony, as Microsoft had Quantum Break in April last year.
Leaving that month out Xb1 would be down 0.1% or 1k units

So yeah for the first 5 months of 2017 Xb1 and Ps4 sold extremely similar and like they normally perform. Pretty different from June and July and likely also August to October
And by similar i obviously don't talk about "the same amount of units"
That would not make much sense.

 

[Humdinger]

Xbox One Sold between 119k and 127k if someone is interested in that number.


And I'm not sure, why so many expected sub 100k or less than 3DS, as the leaker on the other website never said anything about those numbers being the Top 3.

Yes, thank you, I was scanning the thread, waiting for someone to do the math and arrive at an accurate estimate based on prediction results.

So if we split the difference, it's 123K

 

[ethomaz]

Not good for me this month but at least I hold the 3rd place for the year.