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Ampere Analysis: Console market 2022 review: Hampered by lack of hardware availability
- Thread starter Alex Scott
- Start date
DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
Xbox doing quite well considering, managing to claw back a tiny bit of share, but until they sort their hardware constraints in series X they are in trouble. No where near 2 to 1 which people are trying to claim on here so thats good for MS.
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Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Even 18.5 million for Xbox is a bit lenient. But look how close we've been throughout all this time with our estimates, even while working with extremely limited information! 
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El Pistolero
Banned
In a world without shortages and Covid, the gap between the PS5 and the Series would have been much larger.
ChorizoPicozo
Member
I think the last claim is for this year.
MikeM
Member
MS said themselves to CMA that global market share between PS and Xbox is 70/30.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
This is the opposite of good.
3-4 months ago, people were celebrating when VGChartz claimed that Xbox Series X|S had crossed 20 million consoles. Now it's only 18.5 million.
Aaron Greenberg implied that Xbox was at almost 14 million by April 2022.
Most of us saw that he was likely misleading people by retweeting VGChartz. But let's assume he was right. What does that mean then?
It means that since April 2022, Microsoft has only sold 4.5 million consoles in 8 months? That means:
- they are averaging 0.5 million consoles per month or
- 1.5 million consoles per quarter or
- 6 million consoles per year?
HOW exactly is that good?
TheGodfather07
Member
It's the US that Microsoft really need to worry about. They've always been competitive there but last years numbers were bad. Worst holiday for xbox in 10 years apparently. Getting outsold by PS5 2 to 1 in the US is the worst case scenario for Microsoft. Factor in the rest of the world and you get the picture.
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DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
but that's not reality, so it doesn't matter and you have no way of stating this as a fact.
This, I completely agree. They are slipping in the US and need to turn it around ASAP. Starfield needs to be first half and they need more games for Q3 and Q4 or they are in trouble.
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remember_spinal
Banned
This happened in a year where ps5’s were almost non-existent for the 6 months of the year. This year is gonna be insane, with a new SKU and Spider-Man
Sony already got a defacto current gen smash hit with Hogwarts ths quarter.
Sony already got a defacto current gen smash hit with Hogwarts ths quarter.
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feynoob
Member
MS is sending XSX to their xcloud data centers.
Take that away, and those numbers would be higher.
2H 2022
PS5 9.0 M
X|S 4.7 M
Spain 2023, Week 6
PS5 9,150 / 43,850 YTD
NSW 3,850 / 49,050 YTD
X|S 1,100 / 5,850 YTD
Famitsu 2023, Week 8
PS5 88,653 /509,582 YTD
NSW 48,896 /587,760 YTD
X|S 6,600 /30,180 YTD
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Thirty7ven
Banned
Their Xbox numbers are just estimates, and they have gone with the very upper end of the estimates. I very much doubt they actually got there.
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Poltz
Member
Nowhere near is a bit generous here..
Mr.Phoenix
Member
30 vs 18.5 is nowhere near 2 to 1? that's 1.62 to 1. And this was at the end of 2022. What do you think it is now?
I feel this is a moot point though, it's an exercise in futility trying to debate market share between PS and Xbox. Unless the Xbox somehow starts outselling the PS5 for the rest of this year,by the time this year is done, we will be looking at at least a 2 to 1 figure.
That doesn't matter though, MS can still have a very successful Xbox even with a 2 to 1 market share difference.
Topher
Gold Member
Smh putting Sony in green and MS in blue
The colors used in general are horrible. Someone having a baby shower?
adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
18.5m is a respectable number.
Hopefully they're able to resolve the massive SX production choke point that they're seemingly having right now.
Hopefully they're able to resolve the massive SX production choke point that they're seemingly having right now.
feynoob
Member
What matters is having a good software output this gen. If they do it, then their next gen would be good.
As for console sales, MS is still focusing on xcloud. Allocating some of those xsx consoles to their data centers. They won't be able to get do close to PS at anytime.
Topher
Gold Member
What "massive SX production choke point"? Anyone can buy an Xbox Series console at any time.
adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Xbox Series X: Microsoft Appears To Be Facing Limited Supply
Microsoft could be facing stock shortages for the Xbox Series X, with the console being out of stock at major retailers.
tech4gamers.com
Topher
Gold Member
Xbox Series X: Microsoft Appears To Be Facing Limited Supply
Microsoft could be facing stock shortages for the Xbox Series X, with the console being out of stock at major retailers.
Right......so you were being hyperbolic.
Thirty7ven
Banned
Its just the new “wait for”
adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
I don't know about hyperbolic, but they are seemingly having some production issues. Maybe not yay big, but ya know.
Tsaki
Member
Right? Fucking pink. Who uses this colour?The colors used in general are horrible. Someone having a baby shower?
Topher
Gold Member
Hard to say why stock isn't flowing as much as PS5 really. Could be as others have speculated that MS is putting more units in cloud. Could be part of overall cost cutting measures. Have a hard time believing this is a production issue when that problem was experienced by every other company relying on chips and those problems were solved.
Especially in a damn pie chart. Can barely read the titles
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
How is it a respectable number? Xbox One, at this point, had sold 18-19 million consoles.
if Xbox Series is not able to surpass Xbox One despite (1) Game Pass, (2) buying Zenimax, (3) buying 13 additional studios, (4) Spending $10 billion in the division, (5) and selling a $229 console, how is that respectable?
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
Microsoft is not putting more units in cloud anymore. They had finished doing that by October 2021.
Microsoft Has Now Completed xCloud Server Upgrades to Xbox Series X Hardware
Xbox has confirmed that its Xbox Series X server blade upgrades have been completed, and users should see improvements very soon.
They are not producing enough Series X because Series S is in low demand. The wafer distribution is such that MS will have to make up to 3 Series S for each Series X. So they will either have to make excessive Series S (which isn't selling as well) or deal with the Series X shortage (which is what we're seeing right now).
Having said this, however, Series X is still widely available. And that shortage is not at all like the PS5 and XSX shortage around launch.
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adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
According to this website, approx 18 million were 'activated' in a similar time frame (2 years + change)
Xbox One
The Xbox One is a video game console made by Microsoft that competes in the eighth generation of video game consoles with the Wii U and the PlayStation 4. It will be succeeded by the Xbox Series X in 2020. The Xbox One X is a mid eighth generation upgrade of the Xbox One. The system launched...
Going by Ampere, the Series are still estimated higher. Not sure what 'activated' means in the XBO context, the website doesn't use the word sold there.
Thirty7ven
Banned
Stores around here used to have Series X available all the time and gradually but surely they were replaced by the Forza bundle in terms of availability. I take it this is Xbox’s version of a price hike.
Series S are constantly sold at a discount.
Series S are constantly sold at a discount.
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El Pistolero
Banned
It's rather simple, actually: The success of the PS4 would have carried over, making the transition to adopting the PS5 even faster had Covid not happened. Are you really suggesting that that is a far-fetched idea? MS benefited tremendously from the crisis, in a sense: They were not prepared at all, software wise, and their previous machine did not do that well; It is Sony that got slowed down. Things will certainly change a great deal throughout 2023...You'll see!
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Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
I'm going by EA executives who shared the 18-19 million sold-through number. But whether we use that, or VGSales or pacing data by MS, we arrive at roughly 18-19 million -- which roughly matches Xbox one (+/- 500K).According to this website, approx 18 million were 'activated' in a similar time frame (2 years + change)
Xbox One
The Xbox One is a video game console made by Microsoft that competes in the eighth generation of video game consoles with the Wii U and the PlayStation 4. It will be succeeded by the Xbox Series X in 2020. The Xbox One X is a mid eighth generation upgrade of the Xbox One. The system launched...vgsales.fandom.com
Going by Ampere, the Series are still estimated higher. Not sure what 'activated' means in the XBO context, the website doesn't use the word sold there.
But Xbox One was a more expensive console and less powerful console. It didn't even have Game Pass or the positive word of mouth that Series X|S has.
With a $229 console, Game Pass, Zenimax, 13 studios, etc. XBS was supposed to be better than Xbox One. If it is only matching Xbox One at best, I don't think that's the result Microsoft or the gaming industry expected before the launch.
Even I was predicting 60-70 million XBS sold lifetime, and XBS is not pacing to that. So these numbers are underwhelming to me.
adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
I can still see it reaching this figure easily. They need more high profile content to push hardware, they had very little to none of that last year.
Ar¢tos
Member
They are Art Deco colors. Why use them on this? I have no idea.The colors used in general are horrible. Someone having a baby shower?
Topher
Gold Member
If demand for cloud increases, so will need for additional units. That wouldn't be a one-time thing. I'm not saying that is where the stock is going. Just speculation.
Henry Panic
Banned
These estimates are bad.
Xbox is higher than 18.5M. just the US alone makes that unlikely.
Xbox is still the pacing ahead of every other Xbox, that's been in recent data that's come out as Microsoft has been trying to prove they are downtrotten to buyout Activision. But recently they have been slowing down so covered that up with their PR about market share. Everyone's missing this.
They are basing their estimates off the previous VGchartz estimate before their monthly report. They are assuming VGchartz is off my a certain percentage, they had 18.5M before their update at the end of the year.
They flooded shelves with series s in Nov and Dec but Xbox still sold over 1.5M in the US alone as a family, close to 4M globally. That would have already placed it over 20M we just don't know how much.
What is true is they are slowing down. If they screw up this year they'll be tracking way below Xbox One because this year would be Xbox Ones 2016, where reception turned around and sales were rebounding. They released the One S that year too.
But they have quite a few big games this year, so unless they all don't sell I doubt that's going to happen.
Xbox is higher than 18.5M. just the US alone makes that unlikely.
Xbox is still the pacing ahead of every other Xbox, that's been in recent data that's come out as Microsoft has been trying to prove they are downtrotten to buyout Activision. But recently they have been slowing down so covered that up with their PR about market share. Everyone's missing this.
They are basing their estimates off the previous VGchartz estimate before their monthly report. They are assuming VGchartz is off my a certain percentage, they had 18.5M before their update at the end of the year.
They flooded shelves with series s in Nov and Dec but Xbox still sold over 1.5M in the US alone as a family, close to 4M globally. That would have already placed it over 20M we just don't know how much.
What is true is they are slowing down. If they screw up this year they'll be tracking way below Xbox One because this year would be Xbox Ones 2016, where reception turned around and sales were rebounding. They released the One S that year too.
But they have quite a few big games this year, so unless they all don't sell I doubt that's going to happen.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
Yeah, the upcoming releases -- if they are really good -- might help them pick up the pace.
But H1 so far has shown up to 30% YoY decrease in HW sales, and Ampere Analysis also expects the gap to widen in the first 6 months. If Starfield releases in June/July, things might change around that time.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
No. As of Nov. 2022, Xbox Series X|S lifetime sales in the US were 8.76 million. And they are less than 2 million units in the UK and 400,000 in Japan. So that's like 11 million units in 80% of the Xbox markets.
7.5 million in the Rest of the World territory is already stretching it. 18.5 million is already on the higher side as this puts ROTW at 40%, and Xbox has never been this high in ROTW. The best was 20% during Xbox 360.
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Mr Moose
Member
Turned on and downloaded day one patch to make it work.According to this website, approx 18 million were 'activated' in a similar time frame (2 years + change)
Xbox One
The Xbox One is a video game console made by Microsoft that competes in the eighth generation of video game consoles with the Wii U and the PlayStation 4. It will be succeeded by the Xbox Series X in 2020. The Xbox One X is a mid eighth generation upgrade of the Xbox One. The system launched...
Going by Ampere, the Series are still estimated higher. Not sure what 'activated' means in the XBO context, the website doesn't use the word sold there.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/14518397/DSCF2588_copy.1419980071.jpg)
Xbox One won’t play games out of the box, requires day-one patch
The Verge is about technology and how it makes us feel. Founded in 2011, we offer our audience everything from breaking news to reviews to award-winning features and investigations, on our site, in video, and in podcasts.
www.theverge.com
Topher
Gold Member
These numbers are not based on VGChartz. These are Ampere's own estimates. When did Micrsoft say that Xbox Series is still outpacing previous Xbox consoles? That was last year sometime as I recall.
feynoob
Member
Gamingbolt is quoting this article
https://www.theverge.com/2021/10/7/22714067/xbox-cloud-gaming-custom-xbox-series-x-hardware-upgrade
mS still providing xsx to their data centers.
Topher
Gold Member
That is still just speculation. We don't know that to be true.
FriulHado
Member
Ampere says no. Do you sort only bad news like numbers of units sold from the article ?
feynoob
Member
It's not speculation.
Xcloud is tied to gamepass ultimate, and had around 10m users (people who played on xcloud).
With MS expanding xcloud data centers globally, they will need more xsx for these data centers.
They can't finish it that fast, or else they will have tons of issues with xcloud.
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analog_future
Resident Crybaby
30m to 18.5m is a lot closer than I would've guessed, especially with all the FUD being tossed around about Xbox as of late.
2023 is a big year for MS. They could really start to gain marketshare if the Actiblizz aquisition goes through and Starfield gets that GOTY type attention that they're hoping for.
On the other side of the coin, brand positivity could really sink if Actiblizz is blocked and Starfield is a let down.
2023 is a big year for MS. They could really start to gain marketshare if the Actiblizz aquisition goes through and Starfield gets that GOTY type attention that they're hoping for.
On the other side of the coin, brand positivity could really sink if Actiblizz is blocked and Starfield is a let down.
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DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
Has ps5 now overtaken ps4 sales like for like? I imagine it has?
feynoob
Member
It did. And it will continue to outpace the PS4 since there is no shortage for the PS5 now.