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August 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes September 9th

B

Blanquito

Member
Duxxy3 said:
Strange, I thought I had read 5. Thanks for looking out.
Click to expand...

I mentioned earlier in the thread that September would be a 5 week period (I think! It was last year and that's what I'm basing this on, but correct me if I'm wrong). That was maybe the confusion
 
J

jryi

Senior Analyst, Fanboy Drivel Research Partners LLC
Dragonborn said:
Jesus, that bundle is going to sell more PS4s than anything else so far. Not to mention, it being seen as a PS game will help the PS4 keep up momentum throughout the Holiday season.
Click to expand...

Well, at some point the online player base will be so heavily skewed to PS4 side that it might just as well be an exclusive.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
jryi said:
Well, at some point the online player base will be so heavily skewed to PS4 side that it might just as well be an exclusive.
Click to expand...

Wouldn't go this far. New IP releasing during the early point of the gen -- don't think the gap will be as big as something like COD last gen.

Destiny is also releasing on last gen consoles -- wonder how it will do though.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Bgamer90 said:
Wouldn't go this far. New IP releasing during the early point of the gen -- don't think the gap will be as big as something like COD last gen.

Destiny is also releasing on last gen consoles -- wonder how it will do though.
Click to expand...

Not to mention...in general, third-party games sell better on the PS4, but the ratio isn't always heavily in the PS4's favour.

For example, Call of Duty: Ghosts has a 49% PS4 and 51% XBO revenue split.


I'm willing to bet that Destiny will have a healthy player base on XBO and 360.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
Aquamarine said:
Not to mention...in general, third-party games sell better on the PS4, but the ratio isn't always heavily in the PS4's favour.

For example, Call of Duty: Ghosts has a 49% PS4 and 51% XBO revenue split.


I'm willing to bet that Destiny will have a healthy player base on XBO and 360.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I honestly think many are overestimating the split. The game will definitely sell more on the PS4 but there's a very big online shooter userbase on the XB1 -- would say that the sales of Destiny on XB1 will be closer to 100% of the system's userbase than it will be for the PS4.

The game should do very well on both systems.
 
J

jryi

Senior Analyst, Fanboy Drivel Research Partners LLC
Bgamer90 said:
Yeah, I honestly think many are overestimating the split. The game will definitely sell more on the PS4 but there's a very big online shooter userbase on the XB1
Click to expand...
But there is already Titanfall, which apparently still has quite a healthy player base. CoD is very Xbox focused game, and in November there's going to be Halo collection. For all practical purposes Destiny is teh FPS on PS4 this holiday season.
 
N

noobie

Banned
Abdiel said:
Hey everyone, sorry for any delay in getting to this thread. I saw it was up the other day, but I've been a bit busier and wasn't able to really scan the system for general trends. And honestly, it hasn't really been all that 'interesting' as far as trends go.

PS4 remained in a similar pacing to what it has been, whether it's a bit up in some stores (Madden saw new systems purchased for both consoles), or a bit lowered in others. No real steep drop offs or anything, but not an exaggerated upsurge, either. We've got well over 500 of the White PS4 bundle preorders just in our district, which is kind of crazy. That game is going to be crazy. I await September's thread with wide eyes.

XB1 sales are still not great, but they haven't tanked, either. (The madden bundle has been the primary one sold since release, to coincide with the Madden-fever) The new bundles got a few pre-orders each, but that was kind of it. I feel like they will do better once they're on the floor, and customers are in 'grab from the shelf' mode. The PS4 mindshare is still really hurting them though. Customers come in aware that PS4 is 'winning' and that the gap between the two consoles continues to grow in terms of player base, too, which is a hard hurdle to leap.

Wii U seems to only be consistent at being all over the place. Some stores continue to sell the thing well, with MK8 still doing solid sales... Other stores haven't moved a unit in a week. It's pretty head-scratching, honestly.

So, yeah. Pretty boring month over all. I do feel like the Destiny PS4 bundle is tempering their monthly sales, because there's plenty of customers that ask about it, and choose not to pre-order, as well, but the scale in terms of who is even asking about the various bundles is very skewed in favor of the PS4.
Click to expand...

Can you kindly tell what is the normal preorder in your district. I dont know how to take 500, how big or small it is. For a reference you can even compare it with any PS3 or XB 360 preorder of your district..
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Blanquito said:
Interesting. Can you provide a source for this? I would like to research it
Click to expand...

Yeah. The source is USA NPD data.


General split for multiplatform titles is 57% PS4, 43% XBO.


FPS titles in particular (like Battlefield 4 and Call of Duty: Ghosts) are more equal...another indication that Destiny won't be so heavily PS4-skewed as other titles like Watch_Dogs.
 
Chobel

Chobel

Member
Aquamarine said:
Yeah. The source is USA NPD data.


General split for multiplatform titles is 57% PS4, 43% XBO.


FPS titles in particular like Battlefield 4 and Call of Duty: Ghosts are more equal...another indication that Destiny won't be so heavily PS4-skewed as other titles like Watch_Dogs.
Click to expand...

Weren't both BF4 and CoD: Ghosts mostly advertised for Xbox? That could explain why split for these games is not similar to the general split.
 
A

Asd202

Member
Abdiel said:
So, more anecdotal evidence for next month, at least. I stopped into my local Gamestop to check on the used PS3/PS4 games, and I chatted with the guy at the register for a bit.

Next Monday night, their store is anticipating over 1500 people for the Destiny midnight release. 2/3 of those are the White PS4 bundles. They are handling the midnight release for their store, and the local mall location as well, but even so. That number is insane.

That number kinda blew me away, cause I'd only seen our pre-order numbers, and it doesn't scale the same, cause GS is still the most heavily used for that purpose, it seems.

So, yeah. September is going to be crazy.
Click to expand...

Damn can't wait for September numbers.
 
B

blakep267

Member
Chobel said:
Weren't both BF4 and CoD: Ghosts mostly advertised for Xbox? That could explain why split for these games is not similar to the general split.
Click to expand...

but anybody with a 360 or xbox one knows about destiny. MS has made sure of that. Destiny may have ps4 commercials but whenever I walk into gamestop its fairly clear that its on other stuff
 
A

Abdiel

Member
noobie said:
Can you kindly tell what is the normal preorder in your district. I dont know how to take 500, how big or small it is. For a reference you can even compare it with any PS3 or XB 360 preorder of your district..
Click to expand...

Our district (13 stores) had almost 200 of the Kinectless SKU preordered. At launch of the current gen systems, we had several thousand PS4 and XB1 preorders. Any post-launch bundles are expected to have much lower numbers, because customers know they can already get the system itself any time. Currently, I think we're just shy of 100 SO bundles preordered.

Keep in mind, that the PS4 bundle doesn't give you the game for free, while every XB1 bundle we currently sell does. Even the COD bundle gives a limited edition console/controller, and double the hard drive space, and the game, to justify the $100 price difference... Though it's not racking up big numbers yet in preorders.

Edit: Also, our district covers northern New England. The largest city in our territory is Manchester, NH, a city of just over 100,000, which is why I try to check other districts with larger populations for comparisons' sake. Boston alone has 4 Best Buys within its boundaries (used to be 5, but they closed one).
 
J

jayu26

Member
blakep267 said:
Chobel said:
Weren't both BF4 and CoD: Ghosts mostly advertised for Xbox? That could explain why split for these games is not similar to the general split.
Click to expand...
but anybody with a 360 or xbox one knows about destiny. MS has made sure of that. Destiny may have ps4 commercials but whenever I walk into gamestop its fairly clear that its on other stuff
Click to expand...

Are you saying that people with PS3/4 did not know that BF4 and CoD:Ghosts were coming to their consoles?
 
A

allan-bh

Member
Destiny PS4 Bundle is doing very great on Amazon, but I noticed that standard Xbox One version of the game was ahead of PS4 version for several days.

Right now is not the case, but I saw oftentimes.
 
Chobel

Chobel

Member
blakep267 said:
but anybody with a 360 or xbox one knows about destiny. MS has made sure of that. Destiny may have ps4 commercials but whenever I walk into gamestop its fairly clear that its on other stuff
Click to expand...

And Sony made sure people know about CoD and BF4 yet MS have more sales for both games even with lower userbase.
Also MS made sure people know about AC4/WD but sales were highly skewed toward PS4.

allan-bh said:
Destiny PS4 Bundle is doing very great on Amazon, but I noticed that standard Xbox One version of the game was ahead of PS4 version for several days.

Right Now is not the case, but I saw oftentimes.
Click to expand...

One explanation is many people are buying Destiny bundles instead of buying PS4 copies. So we need Bundle+Copies number to get the full picture.
 
B

Blanquito

Member
Aquamarine said:
Yeah. The source is USA NPD data.


General split for multiplatform titles is 57% PS4, 43% XBO.


FPS titles in particular like Battlefield 4 and Call of Duty: Ghosts are more equal...another indication that Destiny won't be so heavily PS4-skewed as other titles like Watch_Dogs.
Click to expand...

Is it DLC then that makes up the difference in revenue totals? Or where does the revenue difference come from?

Edit: oh sorry I thought you were still talking about ghosts, not overall sales. Disregard.
 
S

SuperLeviathan

Member
I'm still a little astonished that the Wii U wasn't able to break six figures for July. If anything, the sales will be less this month since the "get a free game with Mario Kart" promotion is over.

[PS4] 165k
[XB1] 135k
[3DS] 115k
[WIU] 85k
[360] 35k
[PS3] 20k
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
jryi said:
But there is already Titanfall, which apparently still has quite a healthy player base. CoD is very Xbox focused game, and in November there's going to be Halo collection. For all practical purposes Destiny is teh FPS on PS4 this holiday season.
Click to expand...

There's a decent number of shooters on both consoles -- you are right that there's a few more on the Xbox One but I really don't think that's going to greatly impact how Destiny does on the system. The game should do very well on both consoles.
__________________________________

Aquamarine said:
Yeah. The source is USA NPD data.


General split for multiplatform titles is 57% PS4, 43% XBO.


FPS titles in particular like Battlefield 4 and Call of Duty: Ghosts are more equal...another indication that Destiny won't be so heavily PS4-skewed as other titles like Watch_Dogs.
Click to expand...

Wasn't it stated that Wolfenstein was pretty much even on both systems too a month after it released? Are things still pretty much the same in terms of that game?
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Bgamer90 said:
There's a decent number of shooters on both consoles -- you are right that there's a few more on the Xbox One but I really don't think that's going to greatly impact how Destiny does on the system. The game should do very well on both consoles.
__________________________________



Wasn't it stated that Wolfenstein was pretty much even on both systems too a month after it released? Are things still pretty much the same in terms of that game?
Click to expand...

Like 53% PS4, 47% XBO for Wolfenstein. It's yet another example of a relatively equal PS4 / XBO ratio for FPS games.
 
B

Blanquito

Member
Final amazon rankings are in and my post updated.

Combined with Abdiel's very useful posts, there's some good info to be found for predictions.
 
Cornbread78

Cornbread78

Member
[XB1] 200K
[PS4] 190k
[3DS] 85k
[360] 60k
[Wii U] 50k
[PS3] 40k



Ok, that Madden bundle has actually been moving units (mostly college kids.) It's actually the first time ever our store has sold more XB1s than PS4s,even if it's only been a week. I'm not saying that translates nationally into greater sales, but I think we might all be surprised here....
 
D

Dragonborn

Member
Aquamarine said:
Not to mention...in general, third-party games sell better on the PS4, but the ratio isn't always heavily in the PS4's favour.

For example, Call of Duty: Ghosts has a 49% PS4 and 51% XBO revenue split.


I'm willing to bet that Destiny will have a healthy player base on XBO and 360.
Click to expand...

I'm sure it'll do well enough (in NA only), WW it will heavily in PS4's favor so the community as a whole should be way bigger on PS
 
D

donny2112

Member
Cornbread78 said:
XB1 - 200K
PS4 - 190k
3DS - 85k
360 - 60k
Wii U - 50k
PS3 - 40k
Click to expand...

Have said it multiple times, and it's in the OP. If you intend for your prediction to be counted in the results, please use the format in the OP. If you just want to post numbers to discuss, that's fine, too, though. :)
 
K

kinoki

Illness is the doctor to whom we pay most heed; to kindness, to knowledge, we make promise only; pain we obey.
[PS4] 210K
[XB1] 126K
[3DS] 110K
[WIU] 80K
[360] 55K
[PS3] 35K

There we go. I missed out on last month's predictions by sheer negligence. I was hopeless my first time and I hope this second go works better. Really looking forward to see the numbers for both August and September.
 
J

jhmtehgamr20xx

Banned
Aquamarine said:
Like 53% PS4, 47% XBO for Wolfenstein. It's yet another example of relatively equal PS4 / XBO ratio for FPS games.
Click to expand...
That's interesting. I wonder how that split'll hold up over the gen. If trajectories remain the same and all, PS4's install base is going to double XBO's in NA in maybe a year or 1 1/2 years, so I'm thinking if that split remains the same, it either means:

  • MS is extremely associated with the FPS console scene
or
  • The FPS console market is stagnating or receding in growth

Seeing that FPS games didn't sell like complete crap on PS3, if it was the latter that's a pretty bad sign for that market.
 
N

N.Domixis

Banned
Cornbread78 said:
XB1 - 200K
PS4 - 190k
3DS - 85k
360 - 60k
Wii U - 50k
PS3 - 40k



Ok, that Madden bundle has actually been moving units (mostly college kids.) It's actually the first time ever our store has sold more XB1s than PS4s,even if it's only been a week. I'm not saying that translates nationally into greater sales, but I think we might all be surprised here....
Click to expand...
There will be no surprises. Ps4 will be ahead like always.
 
M

mrklaw

MrArseFace
Cornbread78 said:
[XB1] 200K
[PS4] 190k
[3DS] 85k
[360] 60k
[Wii U] 50k
[PS3] 40k



Ok, that Madden bundle has actually been moving units (mostly college kids.) It's actually the first time ever our store has sold more XB1s than PS4s,even if it's only been a week. I'm not saying that translates nationally into greater sales, but I think we might all be surprised here....
Click to expand...

I wonder if the 360 userbase (which seems to be relatively slow to convert) will start to shift over to Xbox one now? Hasn't PS3 activity dropped off more than 360, suggesting that maybe sony have converted more of those consumers early on.
 
Cornbread78

Cornbread78

Member
mrklaw said:
I wonder if the 360 userbase (which seems to be relatively slow to convert) will start to shift over to Xbox one now? Hasn't PS3 activity dropped off more than 360, suggesting that maybe sony have converted more of those consumers early on.
Click to expand...


That appears to be the case. Like gaming clans, these <adden season Franchise leagues are pretty big for college kids (dorm wars) and groups of friends appear to be all jumping at once. At least that's what I've gotten by talking to some of the kids that worked all summer to save money to buy an XB1 on their way back to school especially for Madden.
 
A

A_Gorilla

Banned
I'm wondering if all those bundle announcements will hurt XB1 sales this month like they did in May with the Kinectless version...
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
A_Gorilla said:
I'm wondering if all those bundle announcements will hurt XB1 sales this month like they did in May with the Kinectless version...
Click to expand...

Eh the KL version offered a new entry point for consumers looking into an XB1, so while I think the Madden XB1 bundle clearly offers better value than the regular KL SKU I don't think it will have as strong an effect in persuading consumers to wait on it especially considering it's the same monetary amount even if the contents are better.

Sunset Overdrive I don't think is overly mainstream yet whereas Madden is superbly mainstream so I doubt that bundle will do much until October

COD:AW bundle is $100 more than KL and doesn't include kinect, I doubt it will persuade consumers interested in a XB1 to wait two months

For some subjective evidence on it

Code: 
Amazon Rankings

Month  | TF Bundle | KL Bundle | Madden Bundle |
-----------------------------------------------
June   |     50    |     49    |      N/A      | 
August |     NC    |     52    |       49      |

*NC = Not charted in Top 100 for month

Which would suggest the announcement of the Madden bundle probably didn't completely kill the sales of the KL bundle earlier in August unlike the early announcement of the KL bundle killing the sales of the kinect SKUs in May. Although it's worth noting that the Madden Bundle was announced I think August 12th or thereabouts? And was released on August 26th so within the same NPD tracking period which is important in regards to moving sales around as such
 
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