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August 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes September 8th

The one for Xbox s is hundreds of pages long

And that's really not a good ratio "GAF hype / real sales" considering what we know now about the Xbox One S debut o_O

About the PS4 slim, looking at Amazon we are at the same point as two weeks ago : the Uncharted Slim SKU is most of the time beaten by the Black Ops III OG SKU and it's only when you combine both that you can obtain what could be... good PS4 sales ? Clearly above Xbox One S in any case.

But as always that's only Amazon, so an update from Abdiel could be very interesting at this point of the month.

I summon you, retail overlord. ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

EDIT : Haha, this has just arrived on the PlayStation EU channel. Sony doesn't seem in a hurry to promote the slim.
 
Slim's not gonna do big numbers, I'm almost positive. Maybe around 300k for PS4 if it's lucky.

It's going to end up like last year's price drop but the effect a month earlier. The lack of a big hitter in Sept almost guarantees this I feel.
 

ethomaz

Banned
Pro will be the big hit this year.

Said that OG PS4 plus Slim will push good numbers for September (>300k).

PS4 Slim will indeed have a better sales:pages ratio than Xbone S.
 

sense

Member
i personally thought the slim would be 249 but from the looks of it, sony just wanted to go the route of bundles and sell for 299 and throwing in additional games/controllers.
 

ethomaz

Banned
i personally thought the slim would be 249 but from the looks of it, sony just wanted to go the route of bundles and sell for 299 and throwing in additional games/controllers.
I can bet they will go $249 Black Friday with games bundled.
 
The slim is important for Sony. They can replace quality parts with cheap garbage and sell it for the same price while packing in a tomb raider clone as "added value".
For consumers it doesn't change much, just for the few tin foil hat hippies who think that energy saving is somehow good for himalaya dolphins and stuff.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Price drop is the big factor for PS4 in september, not the Slim.

This.

The Black Ops III bundle did strong all year, at $299 will do crazy. I think Black Ops III bundle will be easy above all others bundles, it will easy outsell XBO S and PS4 Slim by a lot.
 

Raylan

Banned
This would be atrocius. PS4 not only has the slim, but most important a pricedrop. I think PS4 can be close to 400K this month. Still not sure about XBO, but i think should be easy above 300K.
Not really. A lot of people are waiting for the Pro, or for November/December deals. So I can see it around 300k.
 

Welfare

Member
The PS4 slim just replaces current PS4 sales with the added bonus of a $50 price drop. If it were a more dramatic difference like the PS3 slim then I could see it doing much better but right now it seems like the cheaper cost is what people care about, and the PS4 fat is the same price or cheaper right now.

And of course there is the PS4 Pro. That should do good in November.
 

Abdiel

Member
The slim arrival has been interesting. Mostly because it was basically a stealth launch for our stores. It simply arrives, and we can start putting it on shelves. Alongside the cheaper price, the ps4 momentum saw a solid jump, but it's not really driven by the New model. Amusingly, as I train my staff and show them the perks, they're really pleased with the offering, the better Wi-Fi is nice, though most of them assume it will be a much bigger splash with a title like cod bundled. Uncharted is nice as a game included that Sony eats at no cost, but it's not going to get the same mainstream attention as star wars or cod.

Definitely an increase though. Sony rep that comes in to do the demos of psvr talks about stock numbers. I don't think the og models will stick around much longer. They must be drying up in back inventory.
 
Thanks for the retail insight Abdiel, totally in line with what we can see publicly on the web rankings. The OG model stock better be gone by the end of October, because obviously only the slim will be bundled with Infinite Warfare, and from that moment I guess it would be hard to sell the OG without slashing the price.
 

ethomaz

Banned
The slim arrival has been interesting. Mostly because it was basically a stealth launch for our stores. It simply arrives, and we can start putting it on shelves. Alongside the cheaper price, the ps4 momentum saw a solid jump, but it's not really driven by the New model. Amusingly, as I train my staff and show them the perks, they're really pleased with the offering, the better Wi-Fi is nice, though most of them assume it will be a much bigger splash with a title like cod bundled. Uncharted is nice as a game included that Sony eats at no cost, but it's not going to get the same mainstream attention as star wars or cod.

Definitely an increase though. Sony rep that comes in to do the demos of psvr talks about stock numbers. I don't think the og models will stick around much longer. They must be drying up in back inventory.
Thank you again ;)

Let me ask if do you have plans to demo PS4 Pro? Because I guess most of enhancements via HDR + 4k can be saw only in live store and not via streams or pictures.
 
It is only high budget no matter how it sells or it is received by critics.

The $$$ put in the project means AAA.

Ryse, The Order, Knack are AAA games.
I thought Cerny said Knack was done by a comparatively small team.


The ps4 slim thread is like 4 pages. Maybe slim flopped or isn't doing good? The one for Xbox s is hundreds of pages long.
That brings up something I'd been wondering about the SlimBone… Looking at the wall of shame for the OT, it seems like mostly the usual suspects. Do we have any data on how many SlimBone buyers already had a Bone, either here at GAF or among the general population? SlimBone has certainly caused a lot of excitement, but I'm not sure how much excitement it's really causing outside of the XBox camp. It seems like the vast majority of XBox fans around here are trading up, so who does that leave actually buying in to the ecosystem? Have there been any surveys or polls?


And that's really not a good ratio "GAF hype / real sales" considering what we know now about the Xbox One S debut o_O
What do we know about it?


The slim arrival has been interesting. Mostly because it was basically a stealth launch for our stores. It simply arrives, and we can start putting it on shelves. Alongside the cheaper price, the ps4 momentum saw a solid jump, but it's not really driven by the New model. Amusingly, as I train my staff and show them the perks, they're really pleased with the offering, the better Wi-Fi is nice, though most of them assume it will be a much bigger splash with a title like cod bundled. Uncharted is nice as a game included that Sony eats at no cost, but it's not going to get the same mainstream attention as star wars or cod.

Definitely an increase though. Sony rep that comes in to do the demos of psvr talks about stock numbers. I don't think the og models will stick around much longer. They must be drying up in back inventory.
<3


Let me ask if do you have plans to demo PS4 Pro? Because I guess most of enhancements via HDR + 4k can be saw only in live store and not via streams or pictures.
Good question. Seems like live demos are really the only way to sell this thing, especially if the focus is on increasing resolution over other enhancements.
 
That brings up something I'd been wondering about the SlimBone… Looking at the wall of shame for the OT, it seems like mostly the usual suspects. Do we have any data on how many SlimBone buyers already had a Bone, either here at GAF or among the general population? SlimBone has certainly caused a lot of excitement, but I'm not sure how much excitement it's really causing outside of the XBox camp. It seems like the vast majority of XBox fans around here are trading up, so who does that leave actually buying in to the ecosystem? Have there been any surveys or polls?
So it might be a salesdriver but no mausdriver?
 

Welfare

Member
Hmm I guess.

But 7th gen actually saw an increase this month from July. PS360 sold 18.8k in July and saw a 14% increase in sales this month. I'd say the increase is thanks to the 360.
 
Hmm I guess.

But 7th gen actually saw an increase this month from July. PS360 sold 18.8k in July and saw a 14% increase in sales this month. I'd say the increase is thanks to the 360.
360 should sell more than PS3 until the end of stock.
But why the increase?
 
So it might be a salesdriver but no mausdriver?
Could be? That was sorta my question. lol In a nutshell, does "a new XBox" appeal to anyone who wasn't already on board with XBox?


Not really. Yes is tecnically almost a given, but to be fair we know the total is < 160k, not > 150k.

...Btw, about this, Aqua/Claire posted that the total sales of XBO, PS4, Wii U, 360, and PS3 were 479,100.
Yeah, we just know SlimBone was less than 33.3% of that 479k, and it was probably more than 25%, which would be 120k. 30% would be 144k, so "approximately 150k" seems like a reasonable guess.

That would mean around 45% of their sales for the month came from the clearance-priced OG. That doesn't seem to indicate a huge amount of demand for the new hotness overall.
 

Welfare

Member
Yeah, we just know SlimBone was less than 33.3% of that 479k, and it was probably more than 25%, which would be 120k. 30% would be 144k, so "approximately 150k" seems like a reasonable guess.

That would mean around 45% of their sales for the month came from the clearance-priced OG. That doesn't seem to indicate a huge amount of demand for the new hotness overall.
Doesn't mean much this month since 2 of the 3 models only had 5 days of tracking. The 360S only represented 40% of June 2010, doing 180k, and the XB1S did ~150k. Seems like a good showing in comparison.
 
Doesn't mean much this month since 2 of the 3 models only had 5 days of tracking. The 360S only represented 40% of June 2010, doing 180k, and the XB1S did ~150k. Seems like a good showing in comparison.
How so? Their slim was down 17% from 180k to 150k, and their OG was down 54%, from 270k to 125k. At the time, OG360 actually sold almost as much as all Bones combined did this month.

So this slim generated less interest than their last slim did — despite being an actual improvement over the existing model — and overall sales in the ecosystem are down almost 40% gen-over-gen. (450k vs. 275k)
 

Welfare

Member
How so? Their slim was down 17% from 180k to 150k, and their OG was down 54%, from 270k to 125k. At the time, OG360 actually sold almost as much as all Bones combined did this month.

So this slim generated less interest than their last slim did — despite being an actual improvement over the existing model — and overall sales in the ecosystem are down almost 40% gen-over-gen. (450k vs. 275k)
You have to compare the different environment each Slim launched into.

The 360S launched in mid June 2010 at $299 and sold 180k. That's 3 weeks of sales.

The XB1S had 3 different models launch in August (a slower month than June). The $399 model had the most time to sell with 4 weeks and the cheaper $299 and $349 bundles only had 1 week. Selling slightly worse numbers to the 360S in August is alright I'd say since the cheapest model didn't have 3 weeks to sell.

Also the fat 360's had just received a price cut at the same time the S launched, to $149 and $249 for the Arcade and Elite respectively. The fat XB1's got price cuts back in June with the 500GB models going down to $249 in July.

The abso!ute month to month comparison doesn't give the full picture.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
How so? Their slim was down 17% from 180k to 150k, and their OG was down 54%, from 270k to 125k. At the time, OG360 actually sold almost as much as all Bones combined did this month.

So this slim generated less interest than their last slim did — despite being an actual improvement over the existing model — and overall sales in the ecosystem are down almost 40% gen-over-gen. (450k vs. 275k)

You have to compare the different environment each Slim launched into.

The 360S launched in mid June 2010 at $299 and sold 180k. That's 3 weeks of sales.

The XB1S had 3 different models launch in August (a slower month than June). The $399 model had the most time to sell with 4 weeks and the cheaper $299 and $349 bundles only had 1 week. Selling slightly worse numbers to the 360S in August is alright I'd say since the cheapest model didn't have 3 weeks to sell.

Also the fat 360's had just received a price cut at the same time the S launched, to $149 and $249 for the Arcade and Elite respectively. The fat XB1's got price cuts back in June with the 500GB models going down to $249 in July.

The abso!ute month to month comparison doesn't give the full picture.

I think a fair comparation should be XBO S in August + XBO Fat in July 2016 VS 360 in June 2010.

July 2016 - 171,000 + August 2016 ~ 150K = ~320K

So it's basically ~320k VS 452,000.



Not as great as 360 slim launch, but i guess it's ok?
 

Welfare

Member
If you do that, why not just do June + Slim? And again, the 360 had a $149 model which did almost 160k in June alone. The $249 model did slightly over 110k. The XB1 in June was more expensive than that with the lowest model being $279. This isn't an apple's to apple's comparison.
 
If you do that, why not just do June + Slim? And again, the 360 had a $149 model which did almost 160k in June alone. The $249 model did slightly over 110k. The XB1 in June was more expensive than that with the lowest model being $279. This isn't an apple's to apple's comparison.
It was your comparison! lol

In any case, I was just surprised that nearly half their sales were the OG model, especially since they'd already done clearance pricing on the OG in the month prior; I figured most of the OG units would be gone by now, leaving just the slim to be sold. Instead, I see Amazon still have OG bundles available for <$250. I guess they had a bunch of them, but I suppose they're not exactly flying off the shelves either. /shrug

Speaking of stuff I was surprised to find in stock… is the 2TB SlimBone no longer a limited edition? I remember people complaining about the limited supply, but Amazon is selling it with a free game. Did MS ship another batch, or are Amazon tossing in extras to move the initial, "limited supply" stock? I thought the 2TB model sold out immediately. so what's being sold now? =/
 

Welfare

Member
My comparison was that the XB1S 150k is good compared to the 360S 180k. I wasn't comparing total month sales.
 
My comparison was that the XB1S 150k is good compared to the 360S 180k. I wasn't comparing total month sales.
Right on. I was just comparing Bone sales to SlimBone sales.

So you don't know whether MS shipped more Launch Editions? Does anyone? Did it not sell out after all? Did I imagine the part where people complained about not being able to get one? Were they just complaining about anticipated unavailability? =/
 
So you don't know whether MS shipped more Launch Editions? Does anyone? Did it not sell out after all? Did I imagine the part where people complained about not being able to get one? Were they just complaining about anticipated unavailability? =/
Either it wasn't as limited as they told us
or it wasn't as sold out as they told us.
 

jryi

Senior Analyst, Fanboy Drivel Research Partners LLC
It is only high budget no matter how it sells or it is received by critics.

The $$$ put in the project means AAA.

That's kind of a silly thing to promote: "We really blew some dough on this game!"

I mean, I could easily spend millions of dollars on developing something that is absolute crap. If anybody wants to dare me, I can send you my Swiss bank account number...
 

Fdkn

Member
That's kind of a silly thing to promote: "We really blew some dough on this game!"

I mean, I could easily spend millions of dollars on developing something that is absolute crap. If anybody wants to dare me, I can send you my Swiss bank account number...

That would be an absolute crap AAA game, yeah

There are a ton of them also
 

Welfare

Member
$299 Minecraft bundle announced and available today. http://news.xbox.com/2016/09/20/explore-minecraft-xbox-one-s-favorites-bundle/#kz67At683cD8twby.99

XboxOneS_500GBConsole_Minecraft-Favorites-Bundle.png


Looks like retailers have different release dates. It's out now at the MS Store and Best Buy. Gamestop is the 27th, Amazon the 30th, and both Walmart and Target don't have it in their systems yet.
 
Minecraft is 20$.
Has there ever been an older and/or cheaper game in a bundle?
Not that I doubt the power of Minecraft. Au contraire, this is proof of it's force.
It's just... strange.
But the box design is ace. MS did a good job with their XboxS design guide.
 

Welfare

Member
Minecraft is 20$.
Has there ever been an older and/or cheaper game in a bundle?
Not that I doubt the power of Minecraft. Au contraire, this is proof of it's force.
It's just... strange.
But the box design is ace. MS did a good job with their XboxS design guide.


That was $20 and was a bundle for holiday 2015. Game released February 2014.

But Minecraft is a great choice for those that their kids play Minecraft on the 360. $299 is a good price and will get better come Black Friday.
 
That was $20 and was a bundle for holiday 2015. Game released February 2014.

But Minecraft is a great choice for those that their kids play Minecraft on the 360. $299 is a good price and will get better come Black Friday.
That wasn't meant negatively as I know that Minecraft defeats all laws of logic, physics and economics. Personally I don't get Minecraft at all. But it's traction is enormous.
Thanks for the hint with Lego.
 

cakely

Member
$299 Minecraft bundle announced and available today. http://news.xbox.com/2016/09/20/explore-minecraft-xbox-one-s-favorites-bundle/#kz67At683cD8twby.99

XboxOneS_500GBConsole_Minecraft-Favorites-Bundle.png


Looks like retailers have different release dates. It's out now at the MS Store and Best Buy. Gamestop is the 27th, Amazon the 30th, and both Walmart and Target don't have it in their systems yet.

That is a nice-looking box.

I wish the console itself had a tasteful minecraft design, aka, something that looks nothing at all like the new Gears of War design.
 

donny2112

Member
Personally I don't get Minecraft at all. But it's traction is enormous.

I don't get Minecraft's appeal on consoles. The game itself would seem to nominally play itself out in a few months after you've built the things you thought of, played some rounds, and enjoyed the cuteness of the creatures. Maybe if you had consistent playmates coming over to Minecraft with? Now on PC, that I totally get. Infinite designs to enjoy by others. Server play worldwide for free is an incredible draw. Themes, limits, challenges, and if you want actual gameplay, 10m people out there probably have a level for you to really get through. As long as the audience remains, Minecraft PC should be around for a long time. Maybe the mod community on consoles is more robust than I'm giving it credit for? *shrugs*
 

Welfare

Member
I don't get Minecraft's appeal on consoles. The game itself would seem to nominally play itself out in a few months after you've built the things you thought of, played some rounds, and enjoyed the cuteness of the creatures. Maybe if you had consistent playmates coming over to Minecraft with? Now on PC, that I totally get. Infinite designs to enjoy by others. Server play worldwide for free is an incredible draw. Themes, limits, challenges, and if you want actual gameplay, 10m people out there probably have a level for you to really get through. As long as the audience remains, Minecraft PC should be around for a long time. Maybe the mod community on consoles is more robust than I'm giving it credit for? *shrugs*

Consoles are just where someone's friends are. If the game you want to play is Minecraft and your friends are on say, the PS4, why get it on PC? Minecraft is THE game that having friends/community is essential.
 
Consoles are just where someone's friends are. If the game you want to play is Minecraft and your friends are on say, the PS4, why get it on PC? Minecraft is THE game that having friends/community is essential.

Yep, I know plenty of my young cousins whose gateway drug into consoles was Minecraft with friends.

It's like CoD in a way, they always go back to it.
 

Welfare

Member
gamestop.com has cut the fat Xbox One's a further $20. Amazon has also cut the fat 500GB by $20 as well.

I guess Amazon only has the Name Your Game bundle and the Elite left as everything else is sold by third party.
 
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