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[Metfanant]

Depends on your definition of success...I'm not a handheld gamer, so I may be underestimating its appeal there, but I kinda feel the price is going to be an issue there...And as a console, I just don't see it having the mass appeal to compete with the PS4 or Xbone...

I don't want to say DOA, because it will sell well initially, but I worry about its legs

 

[Comet]

it isn't portable with such low battery time

It has the same official battery life that the 3DS has. My N3DSXL doesn't last more than 3 hours playing Pokemon really..

 

[somecrazymember]

PS4 had a decent price for its specs.
Switch has a terrible price for its specs.

This is not hard to understand or a double standard.

Lol at specs being important for nintendo hardware.

If the marketing is good, the console will sell just fine. See how good the initial reveal video was perceived. Most people will see ads in that genre. The WiiU was a mostake because of the bad marketing and name. Lots of people thought it was a Wii accessory

 

[Milly Osworth]

Nintendo needs new leadership, people actually in touch with the market.

 

[Colonel Mustard]

When it's all said and done, I think somewhere in the ballpark of 3DS.

It will do well at launch. Portable Zelda, Mario Kart and Minecraft will carry it in the west for a few months. Splatoon 2, Minecraft, Mario Kart and maybe DQ Heroes will help it out the first few months in Japan.

The big question is how well the Switch ends up showing at e3. If we end up getting some heavy hitters announced there, it should end up doing fine. A Pokémon announcement will help out tremendously.

 

[MaximumSpider]

lol ok

You must be purposely blocking out the PS4 launch year. Only cons I could think of was the launch lineup up and PlayStation Plus being mandatory for multiplayer.

 

[Boy Wander]

My guess would be that it will sell somewhere in the region of 40-50 mill.

My reasoning is based on the fact that it will carry traditionally handheld franchises such as Pokémon as well as Mario/Zelda etc.

 

[BoosterDuck]

itll be a massive success in Japan and will have GameCube numbers everywhere else

Pokemon, Monster Hunter and Dragon Quest being adopted into hybrid consoles with the other first party games will keep Nintendo alive this gen

 

[Okami Haundo]

I was worried about the launch price and lineup, but I've come to accept that day one is really just for the fans. I think this holiday will make or break the Switch for sure. People buying then will have Zelda, Mario, Splatoon, Mario Kart, and likely some other big games to pick from. That's one hell of a first-party lineup for a console that'll be less than a year old.

 

[Buttonbasher]

Don't think anyone would choose HD rumble over HD graphics when picking up a game

That's not how development works. No one prioritized that over that. That's false equivalence.

 

[NotLiquid]

It was?

They hit all the right notes with that launch.

PS4's launch proved the power of having great marketing with a great message and that's about the only thing that stood out with it's launch.

 

[Hale-XF11]

If you were to put the Switch up against my PS4 Slim that I got for $250 with 2 free games, I'd easily take the PS4 all over again.

 

[TheJollyCorner]

Lol at specs being important for nintendo hardware.

If the marketing is good, the console will sell just fine. See how good the initial reveal video was perceived. Most people will see ads in that genre. The WiiU was a mostake because of the bad marketing and name. Lots of people thought it was a Wii accessory

If you think WiiU was a mistake just because of bad marketing and the name, I have some beach-side property in Arizona to sell you.

 

[Hoho for breakfast]

The saddest thing to me in this is that both the people defending it and the people talking about how bad it is mostly all just want it to succeed.

I am and will continue to be very negative toward it. Why would I be like that if I want it to do well? It's because I feel like Nintendo has to wake up asap in order for this thing to be successful. If I say anything positive about it I'm giving Nintendo the wrong message. I don't want them to think it's ok to sell this for $300 and I don't want them to think that after all this time it's ok that they have a single title anyone is really going to care about and I don't want them to think hardly any of the shit they are doing is right.

I don't want Nintendo to think these things are in any way a good idea because I don't believe that they are. People are not going to buy this thing imo plain and simple. If they don't adjust immediately I really think this thing is going to tank. I don't want that.

 

[TM94]

Definitely not.

It will do roughly Wii U numbers since only hardcore Nintendo fans will pick it up.

Doesn't appeal to anybody else.

 

[xaosslug]

the Switch will be a massive success in Japan and will have GameCube numbers everywhere else

Pokemon, Monster Hunter and Dragon Quest being adopted into hybrid consoles with the other first party games will keep Nintendo alive

IDK? Devs might just sit out Switch and stay releasing on 3DS, which is likely cheaper to dev, and the safer bet.

 

[Niks]

$300 is to milk the Nintendo faithful. We will see a price cut come the holidays.. probably will also introduce a battery pack or something to continue to milk said fanbase.

 

[Barry Burton]

No. PS4 launch year was great, the Switch launch year is abysmal. Take off the rose-tinted glasses.

It was pretty bad for exclusives, though, which is what that poster was talking about. Aside from inFamous, it was pretty rough prior to Bloodborne.

That said, Sony can afford to fall back on third-party support, where Nintendo cannot.

 

[Suburban Thug]

No. PS4 launch year was great, the Switch launch year is abysmal. Take off the rose-tinted glasses.

PS4 launch was pretty bad and so will Switch unless they announce surprises at E3

 

[psyfi]

When it's all said and done, I think somewhere in the ballpark of 3DS.

Yeah, that seems about right to me.

 

[Ploid 3.0]

If it wasn't for the already established PS4, Xbox One, and PC with it's increasing popularity, I'd say it would be better than Gamecube/WiiU. It seems like it'll be all on its own trying to draw a crowd with less interesting 3rd party game variety, fighting for handheld customers that will have phones and tablets already.

Pokemon Go, and Mario Go wouldn't be as popular if they required a device people already need for day to day life. So I'm not sure how much pull Pokemon switch will boost it's popularity.

 

[xaosslug]

PS4's launch proved the power of having great marketing with a great message and that's about the only thing that stood out with it's launch.

lmao, such bullshit. Are we back to "PS4 no gamez!" seriously? xD

 

[Parapraxis]

I'm thinking if they market is as a portable/handheld that comes with a TV dock, it'd have a better reception.

But the lack of launch games and price of peripherals is unacceptable no matter what.

2.5 hr battery life might by why the portable aspect isn't being so talked up atm.

 

[Dash_Riprock]

If you think WiiU was a mistake just because of bad marketing and the name, I have some beach-side property in Arizona to sell you.

WTF, people actually think Wii U only flopped cause of the name?

 

[BiggNife]

No. PS4 launch year was great, the Switch launch year is abysmal. Take off the rose-tinted glasses.

What are you talking about? PS4 launch year sucked dude

You had Resogun and Infamous and that was basically it

Meanwhile, while I fully admit the Switch's launch is anemic, you're getting Mario Kart, Splatoon, Mario, and Fire Emblem Warriors all within the first year

That is WAY better than the PS4's first year any way you slice it

 

[mysteriousmage09]

Nope.

 

[brickarts295]

Zelda as launch is huge. Could easily sell 1-2 millions during the first few months. But the popularity will drop hard until Splatoon 2 and again until Mario Odyssey. It's all down to Directs and E3 to save the Switch now and hype it up with all games and 2018 titles. Could end up seling 4-7 million by the end of the year. I'm still confident there will be more than Mario during the Fall.

I forgot, Mario Kart 8 could be a big deal so that might also help with sales.

 

[Mandoric]

So- can someone help me understand why 299USD is a bad price point? I'm not from the US (i'm actually from Norway and it's gonna be a lot more expensive here) so maybe that's why i'm missing the point. Anyway. I gathered some information on other consoles introductory prices:

PS4 - 399USD
Xbox One - 499USD
Wii U - 349USD
3DS - 249USD
Vita - 249USD (299USD for 3G-version)
Switch - 299USD

I'm not trying to offend anyone, i just don't get why some people hate so much on the price. I think 299USD sounds about right.

Btw, on topic: I can see it go either way but leaning towards a good outcome with 3DS-numbers. Once Pokémon, Mario, Animal Crossing, MH etc. hits it's probably gonna sell pretty fast. I can definitely see 2018 being a bigger year for it though.

Only one of those found success at its launch price point. Only two of them could even be kept viable, not on par with their predecessor just viable, by emergency price cuts when the launch model flopped.

A lot of people were expecting to pay $249 to play Nintendo exclusives through 2023 or so. Now that number's likely to be $599 or so. That's a very steep rise, even if it's paid in installments. And historically it's been a very poor choice for Nintendo: their only two systems over $199/$249 with pack-in game have been the Wii U and the 3DS, and launch day 3DSes were still on shelves until day 1 of the $169/20 free games price point.

 

[Gurnlei]

No. Not too good of a launch library and costs $50 more than what I think is the perfect price.

Voted for GCN tier, but I can see it doing a bit better.

 

[orthodoxy1095]

Resogun was amazing... and that's about it?

Enthusiast perspective aside, it had all the games that casual players would want for the holidays at launch: AC: Black Flag, Battlefield 4, CoD: Ghosts, FIFA, Lego Marvel, Madden, NBA, Need for Speed and Skylanders.

 

[fredrancour]

if pokemon stars is real and exclusive, it'll probably add enough momentum to get the thing to gamecube tier or beyond. BotW, Spla2n, and SMO alone would put it on the path towards wiiu sales at minimum, but stars would elevate the holiday lineup a lot. even if it moves 5 or 6 million in its life, that'll still be enough to get the console above wiiu.

i'll be really surprised if it takes off in a big way, though. accessory pricing is nuts. ignoring how ps+/ games with gold works is nuts. the amount of base storage is nuts. if voice chat really actually only exists through a companion app on phones, that's beyond nuts. i also still feel they're kind of screwed on price vs specs by aiming to avoid taking a loss per unit with a hybrid. i'm still not convinced the flexibility will be a source of value to a significant number of people.

if there are actually more 2017 games and they held announcements back, that was an awful decision.

 

[jerry5278]

I dont get all the negativity on here. 299 is a reasonable price point, and they showed some really great games. The only game i wasnt super excited for was 1 2 switch. And on todays nintendo treehouse live stream, they unveiled even more games for it. This is far and away the best console nintendo has had in quite some time. I think it will be a massive success. Ps4 launch lineup wasnt good either. Give the switch a chance here, people

 

[Stumpokapow]

It was?

They hit all the right notes with that launch.

I think everyone pretty much agrees that the hardware itself, the pricing, and positioning were all great. There's no doubt that the PS4 immediately assumed the thought lead and became the go-to hardware for AAA games.

But when it comes to the software coming down the pipeline in the first year, it was a stumble. Ghosts is not regarded as a good CoD. Watch_Dogs was widely regarded as not living up to potential. AC4 was viewed as superfluous, Unity was the technical disaster. Destiny had an extremely underwhelming launch critically -- it's a testament to Bungie's hard work that the game's reputation recovered.

Sony had Knack (generally held to be bad), InFamous, and Killzone (generally held to be forgettable). Other major titles included Thief 4, Wolfenstein TNO, and Murdered: Soul Suspect, and I think a late port of Tomb Raider. SKU counts collapsed across all publishers. Major indie titles included Resogun (excellent), Outlast (also excellent), ports of PS3's indie games, and TowerFall Ascension.

Probably the only unexpected success in the first year of the XBO/PS4 was Middle-Earth: Shadow of Mordor and there were many unexpected disappointments

It was a rough transition for the industry and even though PS4 got all the third party support, it was a pretty anemic year in general.

 

[.polybius]

I don't think most people are asking for $199. That's a disingenuous argument when what people are asking for is more of a value proposition from the $300 that Nintendo chose. And we're not really talking from a purely personal perspective in this thread. Yeah, I'm going to wait until probably at least late summer if not winter to pick one up. I get that. The question is whether the Switch will be a success, not whether we want to get it at launch. And looking at the year ahead, I don't see how the value proposition of a Switch stands up to the competition throughout the year and especially during the holiday season.

And no, that's not a charging grip. That's a plain grip. They're different.

Yeah, you're right- most people aren't asking for 199$, it was just a stupid example. And i don't disagree with you, i was just asking people to give me their opinions since i didn't get why people thought 299$ was too much- turns out it's more of a value proposition since it's no pack-in, just 32GB and so on. Thanks for your input. I guess we'll see how it goes

 

[prwxv3]

What are you talking about? PS4 launch year sucked dude

You had Resogun and Infamous and that was basically it

Meanwhile, while I fully admit the Switch's launch is anemic, you're getting Mario Kart, Splatoon, Mario, and Fire Emblem Warriors all within the first year

That is WAY better than the PS4's first year any way you slice it

Not for the common consumer it's not. The ps4 had games that the mainstream consumer buys.

 

[SmokedMeat]

If the marketing is good, the console will sell just fine. See how good the initial reveal video was perceived. Most people will see ads in that genre. The WiiU was a mostake because of the bad marketing and name. Lots of people thought it was a Wii accessory

The amusing part of this tired excuse is that 90 million Wii owners couldn't be bothered to buy this "accessory" for their Wii.

 

[mantidor]

They could've made the dock more powerful...

It seems to me Nintendo wanted an easy transition from docked home console to portable, like, so easy you can do it mid game. You can't really share horse power between the two with that in mind, games would need to reboot every time you do the transition.

 

[Okami Haundo]

Yeah, you're right- most people aren't asking for 199$, it was just a stupid example. And i don't disagree with you, i was just asking people to give me their opinions since i didn't get why people thought 299$ was too much- turns out it's more of a value proposition since it's no pack-in, just 32GB and so on. Thanks for your input. I guess we'll see how it goes

Yeah... I would feel better about the price if it had a pack-in of some kind, but oh well. I fully expect that we'll have a version with Mario or some other big title for the same $300 this holiday.

 

[DeadlyParasite]

I'm betting that it will never sucessfully entice me as a buyer, regardless of how well it sells to others.

 

[JJH]

Said that before in this thread, Mainline Pokémon, portable Monster Hunter and Animal Crossing will keep this from being another Wii U.

Is it too early to start the "Save the Nintendo Switch" chalkboard?

 

[BiggNife]

Not for the common consumer it's not. The ps4 had games that the mainstream consumer buys.

The common consumer also buys Zelda, Mario Kart, Splatoon and Mario so I'm not exactly sure where you're going with this

 

[DNAbro]

Zelda as launch is huge. Could easily sell 1-2 millions during the first few months. But the popularity will drop hard until Splatoon 2 and again until Mario Odyssey. It's all down to Directs and E3 to save the Switch now and hype it up with all games and 2018 titles. Could end up seling 4-7 million by the end of the year. I'm still confident there will be more than Mario during the Fall.

I forgot, Mario Kart 8 could be a big deal so that might also help with sales.

Isnt 2 million first month their goal?

 

[MaximumSpider]

What are you talking about? PS4 launch year sucked dude

You had Resogun and Infamous and that was basically it

Meanwhile, while I fully admit the Switch's launch is anemic, you're getting Mario Kart, Splatoon, Mario, and Fire Emblem Warriors all within the first year

That is WAY better than the PS4's first year any way you slice it

Mainstream casual gamers care about Cod, Ass Creed, NBA, Madden, etc than they do exclusives.

 

[Okami Haundo]

Isnt 2 million first month their goal?

Their goal is 2 million "shipped" by March 31st. They will definitely hit that figure without an issue. "Sold" will be a different story but I'm hoping it's not far off.

 

[Jubenhimer]

Yes, but not at first. I see this being like the 3DS or DS, or even the PS1. Where it starts slow out of the gate, with sluggish sales and little fanfare, then following a price drop and compelling software releases, it starts catching on with the masses. I don't see this being a Wii U style failure since Nintendo has been doing a much better job marketing and design wise with the Switch.

 

[prwxv3]

The common consumer also buys Zelda, Mario Kart, Splatoon and Mario so I'm not exactly sure where you're going with this

Hahahahaha if that were true the WiiU would have sold so much more then it has. The ps4 had games that sold the system to the mainstream audience. Those games did sell very well though I will admit.

 

[liquidtmd]

Yes, but not at first. I see this being like the 3DS or DS, or even the PS1. Where it starts slow out of the gate, with sluggish sales and little fanfare, then following a price drop and compelling software releases, it starts catching on with the masses. I don't see this being a Wii U style failure since Nintendo has been doing a much better job marketing and design wise with the Switch.

I was in HMV in '95 in the middle of Manchester for the launch of the Playstation, the hype was real and the fanfare (and especially marketing) was bananas.

Spoiler

I get what you're saying though

 

[badb0y]

What are you talking about? PS4 launch year sucked dude

You had Resogun and Infamous and that was basically it

Meanwhile, while I fully admit the Switch's launch is anemic, you're getting Mario Kart, Splatoon, Mario, and Fire Emblem Warriors all within the first year

That is WAY better than the PS4's first year any way you slice it

Only if you look at exclusives

 

[Dash_Riprock]

Yes, but not at first. I see this being like the 3DS or DS, or even the PS1. Where it starts slow out of the gate, with sluggish sales and little fanfare, then following a price drop and compelling software releases, it starts catching on with the masses. I don't see this being a Wii U style failure since Nintendo has been doing a much better job marketing and design wise with the Switch.

PS1 stumbled at first? I thought it was a smash hit from day 1.

 

[Sapientas]

Their goal is 2 million "shipped" by March 31st. They will definitely hit that figure without an issue. "Sold" will be a different story but I'm hoping it's not far off.

They're definitely hitting that mark, though even in best case scenarios the system will suffer for a bit after that