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[Sho_Nuff82]

The launch is a little weak, I'll be the first to admit it. But they have some amazing software planned for the first year, and I think the core hook of the hardware is genius. 1 2 Switch and Snipperclips both show off the anywhere/anytime multiplayer really well, and while I don't think catch on as easily as the Wii did, I think it has potential to really take off. I think it'll be a success for sure, but we'll see if it's a Wii style phenomenon.


Resogun was amazing... and that's about it?

For all the talk of "step out of your hardcore pov" this is one of the most myopic posts in the thread. The PS4 didn't sell out ww for the first year on the back of Resogun and fucking Knack/Killzone.

It had FIFA, it had COD, it had Assassin's Creed, it had Battlefield, it had Destiny, it had 2k, it had Madden, and it was $100 cheaper than an Xbox One with a universally recognized retail recommendation of "better graphics". The rest is just fanboy window dressing.

 

[Flame Lord]

I think it will probably do about as well as the Wii U. The only way I see it ever being better than that is when we can see the benefits of them putting their handheld and console devs on one thing, but for now I don't think things are looking to good.

 

[haimon]

I see it as pretty much wiiu sales.

Nintendo did 2 things that we're good: it's not called Wii something. And it's region free.

Everything else (console related) has been between bad (flash memory) ND disastrous (paying for shitty online and a pay app for chat).

Might end up doing a bit better than wiiu and get to GC levels but I don't see it succeeding

 

[orthodoxy1095]

The Wii U didn't have all of those games within the first year. It was a slow trickle, which was evidently the system's downfall.

Having all of that available Holiday 2017 (and potentially Pokemon Stars if the rumors are right) is a big deal and is a considerably stronger lineup than the Wii U had going into its first holiday.

Their lineup by Holiday 2017 should be alright. Although I still think it'll have some stiff competition, but that's whatever.

The issue is the drought of stuff from April to July-August where there are like just 2 games lined up. Sure, it's better than the Wii U and nothing between launch and Pikmin, but how much better?

 

[LordOcidax]

Yes, actually almost all of my friends already preorder one (Only two for the WiiU), and looks like the public opinion outside Neogaf is pretty positive this time. That Zelda trailer is doing the Job.

 

[Stone Ocean]

There's so much doom and gloom on GAF that I can't help but think this will be a hit.

 

[Papacheeks]

Jeff is super into milking the cows

I asked what he actually thought of the unit and the showing from last night. Not the funny jokes of him milking even though it pretty hysterical.

 

[Mandoric]

Another big thing to note is that pricing is, in large part, a battle of asymmetrical information between the seller and the buyer, but Nintendo is far more predictable than other platform holders. When you price a Playstation or an XBox, the idea is always in the back of your head that you may get a year like 1998 or 2007, and that once you do you might actually go and buy its releases in 2000 or 2009. The $50 or $70 a year you pay to own the box during its viable life (or, now, the $100-$120) can sometimes result in ten amazing games for $300 total, $30/game years.

With Nintendo, you know you're getting 3-4 first-party tentpoles annually, and you know they're $40-$60 until they go out of print. That's four amazing games for $300 total, $75/game any given year.

Are all of Sony's years like 1998? Of course not. Are all of Microsoft's years like 2007? We'll probably never see that again. But Nintendo is in the uniquely weak pricing position where there's no real plausible chance of a jackpot for buyers.

 

[Rebel Leader]

I can't say. It could be a late hit.

There is no name confusion this time around and the name matches it greatly.

There's so much doom and gloom on GAF that I can't help but think this will be a hit.

I think it will be a late hit once all the multiplayer/party games come out

 

[MrMephistoX]

GAF trashed the Wii launch and Wii reveal. Went nuts for WiiU.

Going by GAF it should be massive.

I think if it continues to get mainstream press it will do ok but I think they're shooting themselves in the foot with the price when it's releasing after Christmas.

 

[Synth]

What are you talking about? PS4 launch year sucked dude

You had Resogun and Infamous and that was basically it

Meanwhile, while I fully admit the Switch's launch is anemic, you're getting Mario Kart, Splatoon, Mario, and Fire Emblem Warriors all within the first year

That is WAY better than the PS4's first year any way you slice it

If the Switch has Mario Kart, then the PS4 had The Last of Us.

 

[Maedre]

Oh man its hard.

Nintendo had everything in their hands but did everything to ruin it.

- paid online
- ridiculous prices
- nearly no launch lineup


They have to lower the price of the console to 249€/$
They have to lower the Price of the peripherals 50%
They have to unveil more GAMES.
They have to get their shit together.

 

[FantasticMrFoxdie]

and a pay app for chat).

WHAT is this for real.

 

[Papacheeks]

Yes, actually almost all of my friends already preorder one (Only two for the WiiU), and looks like the public opinion outside Neogaf is pretty positive this time. That Zelda trailer is doing the Job.

Are all your friends Nintendo fans like yourself? ANd have they owned the Wii U?

Because we are talking also about regular people who will but this not people who will buy anything Nintendo puts out.

 

[Nimby]

The big nos for me are the price. $299 wouldn't be bad if it launched with a couple of games (1 2 Switch, and a bunch of small, free mini-games) and maybe an SD card.

And the lack of launch titles. ARMS should have arguably launched with it, maybe Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, with Paper Mario or Super Mario Maker in April. Can't see myself picking it up until Odyssey comes out. You also have to buy a subscription to play online now, which is a bit too much for me. Hopefully it's on the cheaper side, which it should be.

I'm optimistic and hoping for a decent future for the system, launch year most likely isn't going to be great though. It will basically be a handheld for me, so I also have to wait and see if they do a dock-less version.

 

[DMONKUMA]

WHAT is this for real.

I think that's apart of the online pay subscription.

 

[onemanasylum]

If the Switch has Mario Kart, then the PS4 had The Last of Us.

I like how he names 2 games and says "That's it" lmao, I mean third party support alone gives PS4 a massive edge, plus there was MLB, TLOU, Resogun,bunch of indies, Drive club.....

 

[ckaneo]

PS4s launch was terrible. They were seriously advertising Knack. However, the PS4 at the mininum was getting all the great 3rd party games. Witcher 3, GTA V, Sports, and it was stronger than the Xbox One. This is where power matters, since the PS4 and Xbox One are not really that different. Throw in XBox One DRM, Kinect, and price and I cant think of any reason to not get one.

The problem is that we new games were coming for PS4 even if the sony made ones were garbage. The Switch is reliant on Nintendo games and Nintendo games have honestly slipped in quality since the switch to HD; All the good games are being ported.

Nintendo didnt even need a good launch, they needed to promise us games even if they were years away. Huge mistake on their part. Give us HD CGI trailers and let the hype go wild.

 

[NotLiquid]

I think people saying "well the specs aren't high enough so it should be cheaper" are missing the real issue.

If you don't have an Xbox One, PS4, or Switch, and all three are the same price (and all three have pay online, and the Switch has the most expensive extra controllers but also sort of a second controller packed in), but the Xbox One and PS4 have 4 years worth of excellent games available for cheap and all the hottest new releases, while the Switch has Nintendo games and a handful of versions of third party games, most of which will almost by definition have smaller communities or technical limitations or both, then the Switch is going to seem like a worse value for a lot of people. It's true, Nintendo games count for a lot. That's why there are 12 million Wii Us sold and not 0.

If you do have an Xbox One or PS4, maybe you would consider the Switch as a second console. You'll buy most of your stuff on your primary console, but you'll check out Nintendo games. But the $300 upfront barrier, plus online subscription if you want to play online, makes it a much bigger hurdle when you know you could get 4 or 5 new release games for your primary console for the same price.

But the other major risk is that the Switch launches at $300 and then within 6 months the Xbox One or PS4 get to $249 or $199 or they are $299 with aggressive bundles that have two or three games. Now all the problems I mentioned above are actually exacerbated.

Now, maybe you say that there's a target audience with families who love Nintendo games and don't want AAA shooters because their kids are too young or whatever. I buy that, for sure. Except that almost everything in the kid/family market segment has run for mobile and tablets, which the family already has, and among licensed movie games, they can get those on Wii U, and if they want to buy a dedicated system, it seems to me like it still wouldn't be obvious that they'd pick the Switch as that system even just for family-dedicated titles.

I think if the value proposition of the Switch is "well, it's like the Wii U, except we stopped making a dedicated handheld so now you need one of these to play the games you used to play on the 3DS", then it will do better than Wii U but a lot worse than Wii U and 3DS put together.

(Full disclosure: I'm trying to choose between GameCube tier and "above GameCube and Wii U" tier)

Depending on how Nintendo play their cards for the holidays this could be an advantage in releasing the console as early as March. It gives them more space to avoid any new hardware or specific bundles that may tear away at Switch's launch period. I think they could improve their release schedule a bit but the date in which we're getting the thing seems about the best it could be given the circumstances.

Hopefully, there's some good holiday deals/bundles for the Switch this year. Pushing a new Pokemon version (assuming the rumors are true that is) alongside Mario with some kind of deal for the Switch would be a smart move.

 

[Parapraxis]

For all the talk of "step out of your hardcore pov" this is one of the most myopic posts in the thread. The PS4 didn't sell out ww for the first year on the back of Resogun and fucking Knack/Killzone.

It had FIFA, it had COD, it had Assassin's Creed, it had Battlefield, it had Destiny, it had 2k, it had Madden, and it was $100 cheaper than an Xbox One with a universally recognized retail recommendation of "better graphics". The rest is just fanboy window dressing.

A few games of note from year 1 of PS4
Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag & Unity
Battlefield 4
Call of Duty: Ghosts & AW
FIFA 14
Killzone Shadow Fall
Knack
Lego Marvel Super Heroes
Madden NFL 25
NBA 2K14
Need for Speed: Rivals
Resogun
Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition
Outlast
Rayman Legends
Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes
Infamous Second Son
Trials Fusion
Child of Light
Transistor
Wolfenstein: The New Order
Watch Dogs
The Last of Us Remastered
Diablo III
Hotline Miami
Infamous First Light
Metro Redux
Minecraft
Middle-earth: Shadow of Mordor
Alien: Isolation
Driveclub
Spelunky
The Evil Within
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth
Dragon Age: Inquisition
Far Cry 4
Grand Theft Auto V
Tales from the Borderlands

(this is about 1/5 of the total games in year 1 btw 180 games launched year 1) ...how the "no games" meme was started and perpetuated is beyond me, likely people who just dislike Sony.

 

[RoodyPooUS]

WiiU tier, niche product but should retain the loyal nintendo fans

 

[The Cartographer]

It will certainly be more popular than the WiiU but that's not saying much.

But if the Switch will really get supported by all Nintendo studios then maybe it will be a real killer machine.

 

[Symbiotx]

I'm surprised people are so up in arms about the console price. I actually don't think that's unfair, and I definitely told people they were dreaming if they thought it'd be under $300. It's basically a gaming tablet with a TV dock and controller accessories. Find one cheaper that plays games like this and has this functionality. You can't, you won't, don't bother trying.

Now, the price of the accessories is ridiculous. Charging for online when their online and account stuff has been horrendous is not smart. The included monthly access to a NES/SNES game does NOT sweeten the deal. Don't even get me started on the app you have to use for chat.

Still though, you'll notice the same old scarcity and disappearing pre-orders. I know I will buy one but only for offline play. They already have Zelda and Mario and you can take it with you. The good parts are gonna be good enough to move a good amount of units. There's no way it's a flop. It'll probably do better than the WiiU as long as they can put games out for it.

 

[Jeronimo Jones]

I don't see it being super successful out of the gates, but it could eventually sell well later with aggressive price drops, bundles, etc., only if it actually delivers on the library of games the masses want.

 

[Lorcain]

I think it's going to be a good seller this year, even with games slowly trickling out throughout the remainder of the year. I don't think people fully realize the potential of being able to simultaneously own the next main Nintendo console and the best supported portable on the market.

Being able to play a mainline Zelda, SMT and Xenoblade on the go are worth it alone for me. The next iterations of Monster Hunter and Pokemon in HD will more than justify the cost. And I can play them on my HD TV or take them with me.

I remember the lack of enthusiasm and clarity for the WiiU, especially by developers. This feels different.

 

[Suburban Thug]

WHAT is this for real.

Lol yeah Nintendo makes you download a smartphone app to chat with your friends or set up gaming sessions. Can't do it through the console which is stupid.

 

[88random]

Gamecube tier. Maybe N64.

 

[Kodiak]

Really seems like Neogaf would have only been happy with:

+ PS4 level power or better
+ 5+ hours of battery
+ 199USD

Why? When has Nintendo ever been about cutting edge technology? The DS, Wii, 3DS, and Wii U all felt dated at the time they were released. But just because the Wii U was a massive flop, doesn't mean the Switch won't catch on.

I will say that the criticisms about the paid online are fair, as well as the lack of launch lineup and a pack-in game. 1, 2, Switch def should have been free with the system.

But the price? It's fine. $299 isn't bad for a system launch in 2017, and comparing it directly to the PS4 mistakes the audience for the system. The people buying the switch at launch are Nintendo fans, families, and people who already own a XBONE or PS4 and want a second system (and perhaps skipped the Wii U.)

 

[B.O.O.M]

Depends on how much they are willing to drop the price and how fast they do it..as it stands it's about to be a bigger failure than wiiU. I don't mean that it will not sell more than the wiiu..i mean it's a hybrid targeting both 3ds/wiiu markets ..so the expectations will be higher and hence a lot more riding on this

 

[Griss]

Really like this article by Oli Welsh of Eurogamer: Switch clicks in the hands but on paper it's in trouble

He loves the hardware itself (haven't quoted those parts) but thinks the way it's being brought to market sets it up for a big fall. Really mirrors my own reaction.

It is the product of a unique company that designs games consoles to be part of the games they play - to change the context and possibilities of the games themselves - rather than as engines of brute computing power. But, given what we've learned today about Switch, it looks increasingly likely that it will be the last of its line.

Very little about the way Switch is coming to market feels right. Software is the initial, glaring issue. It is a depressingly familiar situation for Nintendo fans: a thin smattering of very minor offerings from third-parties, some of them painfully late in the day (such as Skyrim, not due until autumn), which barely papers the cracks between the releases from Nintendo's own studios - studios that are being stretched pretty thin themselves. Switch's UK launch line-up of just five games must be the slimmest ever, and the star, Zelda, will also be available on Wii U. Super Mario Odyssey's end-of-year release is soon enough on paper, but right now it feels a lifetime away.

Then there is the aggressive game pricing. £60 for Zelda, a £20 premium over the Wii U version, which to the best of our knowledge is identical (though from what we've seen, it does run more smoothly on Switch). £50 for Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, a port of a three-year-old Wii U game - a devastatingly good one, but still. £40 for 1-2-Switch, a collection of mildly amusing but totally throwaway party minigames that is more Wii Play than Wii Sports, and should have been thrown in free with the console. £60 for Splatoon 2, which barely qualifies as a sequel and is closer to being an expanded port of a game that cost half as much when it was released two years ago. It's just not on.

Nintendo is marketing Switch as a home console you can take with you, presumably to underline the fact that it provides a console-quality gaming experience on the move, which it inarguably does. But that pits it directly against PS4 and Xbox One, which are both cheaper and manifestly more capable. Experienced as a pure home console, Switch feels underpowered and outdated - a minor advance on Wii U, which was underpowered in its own day.

Nintendo wants Switch to synthesize its handheld and home console offerings. It also wants it to bring its casual and hardcore customers together. And, going by the pricing, it wants it all to happen now and make huge piles of money on the double - or else. I worry that it's too much for this machine to bear, and that it won't be given a chance to develop its own personality, or play to its strengths. More than that, I worry that the threadbare slate and eye-watering pricing will be off-putting, even - especially - to the diehard Nintendo fans who've bought half of these games before. Their loyalty, it seems, will be squeezed for every last drop, and in doing so it will be sorely tested.

 

[FantasticMrFoxdie]

While we're speculating

Is not bundling 1,2 Switch a huge misstep here?

I feel like that could have been a saving grace. Families and friends would have eaten that up. No one is going to spend an extra $50 on this. lol

 

[hydragonwarrior]

I see it as pretty much wiiu sales.

Nintendo did 2 things that we're good: it's not called Wii something. And it's region free.

Everything else (console related) has been between bad (flash memory) ND disastrous (paying for shitty online and a pay app for chat).

Might end up doing a bit better than wiiu and get to GC levels but I don't see it succeeding

I think it'll be better for the sole reason that the marketing seems much, much better (i.e. it exists) than Wii U.

 

[ManeKast]

I bet it is;

I thought the Wii and Wii Sports was retarded, I know nothing of world economics.....

 

[Shiggy]

The first year will be a disaster if they keep that price. If they decrease the price dramatically (200€) and announce some games, it might have a chance.

 

[Azure Phoenix]

Considering that it's Nintendo's one and only system going forwards, they've got no choice but to put all their muscle behind it so a Wii U style situation won't happen again. That said, with such atrocious pricing and a pathetic launch window it's going to have all the impact of a passing breeze for the first year (or two) and I cannot easily see it getting anything above Gamecube levels of "success".

 

[88random]

Really seems like Neogaf would have only been happy with:

+ PS4 level power or better
+ 5+ hours of battery
+ 199USD

Why? When has Nintendo ever been about cutting edge technology? The DS, Wii, 3DS, and Wii U all felt dated at the time they were released. But just because the Wii U was a massive flop, doesn't mean the Switch won't catch on.

I will say that the criticisms about the paid online are fair, as well as the lack of launch lineup and a pack-in game. 1, 2, Switch def should have been free with the system.

But the price? It's fine. $299 isn't bad for a system launch in 2017, and comparing it directly to the PS4 mistakes the audience for the system. The people buying the switch at launch are Nintendo fans, families, and people who already own a XBONE or PS4 and want a second system (and perhaps skipped the Wii U.)

Than they should price it accordingly. Nintendo relegated itself to secondary console more than 10 years ago. When you have one console, you don't want to pay as much for the supplementary one.

Even now, you can buy PS4 + U4 for 299$. Next holliday season, PS4 will probably cost 199$ and there will be CoD/BF bundles for 249$. How will Nintendo compete with that?

 

[ViolentP]

Really seems like Neogaf would have only been happy with:

+ PS4 level power or better
+ 5+ hours of battery
+ 199USD

It's not the price people have issue with, it's what they're getting for that price.

 

[Synth]

Why? When has Nintendo ever been about cutting edge technology?

Pretty much any time prior to the Wii (handhelds excluded).

 

[onemanasylum]

Really like this article by Oli Welsh of Eurogamer: Switch clicks in the hands but on paper it's in trouble

He loves the hardware itself (haven't quoted those parts) but thinks the way it's being brought to market sets it up for a big fall. Really mirrors my own reaction.

Yep, seems like most reaction from what i've seen.

 

[mAcOdIn]

(Full disclosure: I'm trying to choose between GameCube tier and "above GameCube and Wii U" tier)

Yeah, picking an answer on the poll's hard, it'd probably be easier if it were numbers shipped since this thing's replacing the Wii U and 3DS. On that fact alone I think it'll sell more than the Wii U but I don't see it hitting the combined numbers of the 3DS and Wii U. I mean, if this thing does Wii U numbers alone then Nintendo's probably finished. Well, maybe not they may whip up a dedicated handheld and push it out quickly or something, I dunno.

 

[Betty]

But the price? It's fine. $299 isn't bad for a system launch in 2017, and comparing it directly to the PS4 mistakes the audience for the system. The people buying the switch at launch are Nintendo fans, families, and people who already own a XBONE or PS4 and want a second system (and perhaps skipped the Wii U.)

It's still too much, $250 or lower would've gotten more casual buyers much like the Wii did with it's low price.

There also isn't a pack in game, 1,2, Switch would've been ideal for this but they're selling it separate.

And for people yet to buy an Xbone or PS4, when you compare what you get and the games on offer day 1 the Switch will stay losing for a long, long while.

Short of Pokemon Stars becoming a runaway success or another lightning in the bottle market moment I think the Switch is going to end up just like the Wii U.

 

[NahaNago]

after pondering over the switch and its lineup of games for this year. I have to say that i do like the games they are bringing out more than the xbox but at the same time playstation utterly destroys it this year by around the time the switch releases. I do still think its too expensive for an immediate buy for folks and lets not even talk about the joy controller prices.

 

[Barry Burton]

(this is about 1/5 of the total games in year 1 btw 180 games launched year 1) ...how the "no games" meme was started and perpetuated is beyond me, likely people who just dislike Sony.

I think the point was not that there weren't plenty of good games on PS4, and more that you didn't have to buy a next-gen console to play most of those games. I held off until I got a decent deal on one w/ inFamous.

The first year will be a disaster if they keep that price. If they decrease the price dramatically (200&#8364 and announce some games, it might have a chance.

I agree with this. They'll be able to get away with $300 in March for the hardcore early adopters, but it'll be a pretty tough sell for the mainstream if it's still over $229 without a pack-in come this holiday.

 

[Sephzilla]

I voted Wii-U tier. When you step back and think about all of the hurdles this is going to have to jump over in order to not get smothered by the XB1 and PS4 while also winning over customers from the tablet/mobile market... I'm not optimistic. And I truly believe the hardcore Nintendo crowd is shrinking.

 

[AstroNut325]

I think it'll do 3DS numbers due to Pokemon and Monster Hunter. I'm not seeing the Wii audience returning for this. I could be completely wrong though.

It's not the price people have issue with, it's what they're getting for that price.

This. And that some people wanted a dedicated console with specs at least equivalent to the X1. Not a hybrid.

 

[AyaisMUsikWhore]

I don't know what to really categorize as a success tbh. What's the barometer that it needs to beat? Is that it's predecessor or what's acceptable for Nintendo standards? I'm mean obviously beating the Wii U but does it have to beat the other two to really be considered successful?

I think it might be but idk, I don't know what to make of this. In my eyes, it's a Wii U pro....

 

[Pizza]

We'll see once Pokémon stars and a new animal crossing drop. I feel like that will make or break the console as a successor to the 3DS, which is really what it needs to be to see widespread success

 

[pablito]

I want it to be, but I just don't know. It's hard to justify a Switch purchase if you don't have at least an OG PS4/X1 already.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Really seems like Neogaf would have only been happy with:

+ PS4 level power or better
+ 5+ hours of battery
+ 199USD

Why? When has Nintendo ever been about cutting edge technology? The DS, Wii, 3DS, and Wii U all felt dated at the time they were released. But just because the Wii U was a massive flop, doesn't mean the Switch won't catch on.

The DS didn't catch on at release, it caught on after a significant price reduction, the introduction of key best-of-breed software (especially Mario Kart in the West and Brain Age in Japan), and then took off like a rocket with the DS Lite. The 3DS never really caught on in a big way, but also went through a cycle of a massive price reduction and a model revision that materially impacted stuff. The Wii felt dated in a lot of ways but also had a revolutionary new control method that opened up an untapped audience. That untapped audience now has a smartphone and a tablet, which they can bring anywhere, use on the road to download things thanks to 3G, the software price is free, and the interface is so easy that literally toddlers who can't read or speak can use a tablet no problem.

But the price? It's fine. $299 isn't bad for a system launch in 2017, and comparing it directly to the PS4 mistakes the audience for the system. The people buying the switch at launch are Nintendo fans, families, and people who already own a XBONE or PS4 and want a second system (and perhaps skipped the Wii U.)

The question isn't if $299 is bad for a system launch, the question is if $299 prices it competitively against its competitors. You correctly acknowledge that this system isn't targeting PS4 buyers primarily--but then you identify a series of audiences where it's not clear how it would be competitive. Nintendo fans? Ok, that's your Wii U audience. Families? They've got mobile and tablets, does this clear an additional $300 hurdle + online subscription if necessary + $60 software prices? Shouldn't they be fairly price conscious, having been socialized even more than gamers to get away with barely paying anything. Let's say nothing of the collapse in packaged licensed software and the Toys to Live market resulting in almost all the family-focused software attention being free or near-free mobile titles; and if by families you mean "Nintendo fans", then how are we not back in category 1? People looking for a second system? Won't these be the most price conscious of all, since they already have 90% of their needs met and are just looking for something cheap to supplement?

 

[Mandoric]

Realy? Okay, I heard from somewhere else that the PS1 started slowly, then gradually gained an audience following the release of games like Crash and Final Fantasy 7.

No, you were right to begin with; for the first couple years it was a tight race globally, with Saturn leading in Japan but weaker in the west.

For perspective, roughly 80% of Saturn sales came before FF7 launched, and roughly 80% of PS sales came after.