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Betting time: Do you think the Switch will be a success?
- Thread starter Gurish
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Suburban Thug
Member
It's amazing that you seem to think 32GB memory and underpowered hardware will not affect how third parties view this thing. Sorry but Nintendo cannot thrive off of their first party offerings alone and the Wii U proved that. It had an amazing library of Nintendo made games but everybody else abandoned it after a year because of the gimmicky controller, gimped half-step hardware, and lack of consumer interest. Nintendo needs third party support whether or not you want to admit it. 3DS isn't just a Nintendo machine, it gets games from a wide variety of devs. Switch is a jack of all trades, master of none system that marketing alone won't save.
Think outside of this enthusiast forum bubble where most of us are skeptical for just a moment. How the heck are they going to sell this to a casual market with a $299 price point, $80 controllers, $50-$60 games, paid online that won't even have basic features at launch, and overpriced accessories? Who does this appeal to outside of brand loyalists who would buy a cardboard box with Nintendo written on the side? Seriously, can you answer that question? You think millennials are gonna drop their iphones to bring Switch to a rooftop party or basketball court like their marketing implies? Lets be real here.
Roufianos
Member
PS4 didn't need a great launch line up. It had COD, Battlefield, FIFA and Ass Creed all in higher resolutions / better frame rates.
Sure, Zelda might be a lot better than all of those games quality wise but it has a fraction of their sales potential.
Not like the Switch is exactly new technology either which the PS4 was to a lot of console owners. People were starving for better looking games after the long PS3 generation whereas this is literally a slightly portable Wii U.
Also Zelda is literally on its own, what else is there besides various indie and niche Japanese games?
The launch is an absolute clusterfuck in terms of actually getting people interested in the system.
Sure, Zelda might be a lot better than all of those games quality wise but it has a fraction of their sales potential.
Not like the Switch is exactly new technology either which the PS4 was to a lot of console owners. People were starving for better looking games after the long PS3 generation whereas this is literally a slightly portable Wii U.
Also Zelda is literally on its own, what else is there besides various indie and niche Japanese games?
The launch is an absolute clusterfuck in terms of actually getting people interested in the system.
Barry Burton
Member
2014 on PS4 was saved for me by Alien Isolation, Mordor and Wolfenstein. All of those were surprisingly awesome games. But again, those were all cross-gen too.
If someone were to argue that the PS4 wasn't worth getting until 2015 when Bloodborne rolled around (followed by Witcher, Batman, Metal Gear, etc.), I wouldn't say that's a crazy statement.
jts
...hate me...
No, it was an unknown thing and it was a slow burn until it caught fire.
GametimeUK
Member
What is wrong with the price exactly? Sure, it's not as powerful as a PS4, but it's a lot of tech crammed into a small space and has an actual screen on it too. Not to mention the dock. The price seems fair to me, or maybe I can't properly judge how much these devices should be made for and in turn what price is reasonable to sell at to make a profit.
The internet has in the last 2 or 3 years just gave me the impression that everything is an over reaction. Quite sad since I used to think it was a source of well thought out arguments and discussions at times.
The internet has in the last 2 or 3 years just gave me the impression that everything is an over reaction. Quite sad since I used to think it was a source of well thought out arguments and discussions at times.
It's definitely a possibility. For me it's not a hard sell 'cause I'll get it at launch anyway, but it will probably help to get it a little more competitive for people on the fence.
orthodoxy1095
Banned
Explain the Wii U then. Because I'm not sure where you're going with this since none of those titles are singular roads to a console success story.
QuantumBro
Banned
Does the common consumer even know what Splatoon is?
Rock And Roll
Member
I don't think it's going to reach Wii levels of popularity, but I do think it will get Nintendo back into the spotlight and be considered a success. It will definitely sell more than the GC and Wii U.
I'm convinced people had a harder time understanding that the Wii U was a next generation up from the Wii. That may have doomed it early. Pokemon, Zelda, and Mario Kart sold tons on the 3DS.
The dock is a charger and HDMI passthrough, nothing more. The concept of being "powerful" is as applicable to the Switch dock as it is to a desktop USB hub.
alexbull_uk
Member
It'll do fine, because by Xmas they'll be selling them for $250 with Pokemon Stars bundled, plus Zelda, Mario, Mario Kart, and Splatoon 2 will all be available to play too.
In the short term, I think it'll hit limited success with die-hard Nintendo fans and then start to fizzle out until the inevitable price reduction.
In the short term, I think it'll hit limited success with die-hard Nintendo fans and then start to fizzle out until the inevitable price reduction.
But then the cost would be higher? Would people be excited if it had the power of an XBONE but launched at $350 or higher?
The thing is portable, has a battery, and a screen, and several other features the XBONE doesn't have. I'm not saying $300 is a great price, but you can certainly see the difficulty of balancing power and cost for the Switch.
The Wii U didn't have all of those games within the first year. It was a slow trickle, which was evidently the system's downfall.
Having all of that available Holiday 2017 (and potentially Pokemon Stars if the rumors are right) is a big deal and is a considerably stronger lineup than the Wii U had going into its first holiday.
It sold five millions on Wii U so yeah
randomengine
Banned
Look at what VR is capable of and yet it is a total failure.
Let's not assume we can predict which features consumers will find interesting.
Obviously VR is interesting, but nobody wants to pay for the damn thing.
Hd Rumble in the switch will be experienced by more people than VR will.
Let's not assume we can predict which features consumers will find interesting.
Obviously VR is interesting, but nobody wants to pay for the damn thing.
Hd Rumble in the switch will be experienced by more people than VR will.
Parapraxis
Member
You seriously want to compare the first years?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_PlayStation_4_games
It's not even close, you Nintendo diehards never cease to amaze. PS4 had plenty of great games 1 year in.
And Zelda is available on WiiU (the version i'm getting).
A few games of note from year one PS4:
Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag & Unity
Battlefield 4
Call of Duty: Ghosts & AW
FIFA 14
Killzone Shadow Fall
Knack
Lego Marvel Super Heroes
Madden NFL 25
NBA 2K14
Need for Speed: Rivals
Resogun
Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition
Outlast
Rayman Legends
Metal Gear Solid V: Ground Zeroes
Infamous Second Son
Trials Fusion
Child of Light
Transistor
Wolfenstein: The New Order
Watch Dogs
The Last of Us Remastered
Diablo III
Hotline Miami
Infamous First Light
Metro Redux
Minecraft
Middle-earth: Shadow of Mordor
Alien: Isolation
Driveclub
Spelunky
The Evil Within
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth
Dragon Age: Inquisition
Far Cry 4
Grand Theft Auto V
Tales from the Borderlands
SmokedMeat
Gamer™
Huh? PS1 exploded out of the gate for its day. It surpassed total Saturn sales in its first month.
kraspkibble
Permabanned.
they'll need to turn it around if they want any success. start with a price drop and maybe...MAYBE make some games people actually want to play! oh and don't stick such a poor battery in it.
orthodoxy1095
Banned
I think that's only one piece of puzzle to the Wii U's failure.
nogoodnamesleft
Banned
No, as per my previous post, if the price was as is and nintendo was willing to take a hit on the cost and have higher specs, the backlash, imo, would be less.
Nothing1016
Member
I think Zelda and MK8 Deluxe can carry the console. Nintendo seems to have pinned the entire launch on Zelda's shoulders with MK8D to carry some of that momentum in April. They will also need to have a fantastic E3 that details games from July to early 2018.
They also NEED a direct or Q and A to clarify their online infrastructure.
I'm not worried about the Switch yet, Zelda, good marketing, and clearing up details can help the console have a successful launch.
They also NEED a direct or Q and A to clarify their online infrastructure.
I'm not worried about the Switch yet, Zelda, good marketing, and clearing up details can help the console have a successful launch.
OricWindstar
Member
I have four coworkers who preordered it last night. Not sure how indicative this is of overall interest, but I think it's going to do at least moderately well.
Nintendo making profit and getting 40-50 million consoles into homes would be a success in my book.
breveglieri
Banned
Switch is doomed
Xbox is doomed
Scorpio is doomed
In the end there'll be only PS4s
Xbox is doomed
Scorpio is doomed
In the end there'll be only PS4s
That's something I totally forgot. The Switch still has to prove a lot, but at least it can't be confused with the Wii like the Wii U did, or with the DS like the 3DS did.
I bet a lot of people think this is actually Nintendo's eight generation console.
I have seen a lot of people not recognizing the fact that you can get Zelda on the WiiU. If anything.. The WiiU is probably a better deal right out of the gate.
fluffydelusions
Member
I've loved Nintendo since the 80s but I don't get some of their decisions they made with the switch. The paid online blows my mind. Do they even have a proper account system yet where games are tied to your actual account rather than the hardware?
Barry Burton
Member
The one thing I would say in the Switch's favor is that even if Nintendo doesn't announce any more games for 2017, it's lineup over the first 9 months won't be nearly as disastrous as the Wii U's was.
I mean, the Wii U had literally nothing between launch and Pikmin, which came out in what, August? And honestly, the Wii U's launch would have been a total disaster as well had Zombi U not miraculously turned out to be great.
Not that BotW, SMO and Splatoon 2 will make the Switch an immediate smash hit but I have to imagine it'll get off to a better start than the Wii U did. Right...?
QuantumBro
Banned
WiiU is that tablet add on for the Wii right?
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
I think people saying "well the specs aren't high enough so it should be cheaper" are missing the real issue.
If you don't have an Xbox One, PS4, or Switch, and all three are the same price (and all three have pay online, and the Switch has the most expensive extra controllers but also sort of a second controller packed in), but the Xbox One and PS4 have 4 years worth of excellent games available for cheap and all the hottest new releases, while the Switch has Nintendo games and a handful of versions of third party games, most of which will almost by definition have smaller communities or technical limitations or both, then the Switch is going to seem like a worse value for a lot of people. It's true, Nintendo games count for a lot. That's why there are 12 million Wii Us sold and not 0.
If you do have an Xbox One or PS4, maybe you would consider the Switch as a second console. You'll buy most of your stuff on your primary console, but you'll check out Nintendo games. But the $300 upfront barrier, plus online subscription if you want to play online, makes it a much bigger hurdle when you know you could get 4 or 5 new release games for your primary console for the same price.
But the other major risk is that the Switch launches at $300 and then within 6 months the Xbox One or PS4 get to $249 or $199 or they are $299 with aggressive bundles that have two or three games. Now all the problems I mentioned above are actually exacerbated.
Now, maybe you say that there's a target audience with families who love Nintendo games and don't want AAA shooters because their kids are too young or whatever. I buy that, for sure. Except that almost everything in the kid/family market segment has run for mobile and tablets, which the family already has, and among licensed movie games, they can get those on Wii U, and if they want to buy a dedicated system, it seems to me like it still wouldn't be obvious that they'd pick the Switch as that system even just for family-dedicated titles.
I think if the value proposition of the Switch is "well, it's like the Wii U, except we stopped making a dedicated handheld so now you need one of these to play the games you used to play on the 3DS", then it will do better than Wii U but a lot worse than Wii U and 3DS put together.
(Full disclosure: I'm trying to choose between GameCube tier and "above GameCube and Wii U" tier)
What if it becomes so successful to even eclipse the iPhone, no even surpass and exhaust every market on Earth, essentially creating its own cult that will rule the world for generations, making Nintendo the most powerful entity of this planet, allowing it to shape the future of humanity for aeons.
I mean, it could happen.
I mean, it could happen.
fredrancour
Member
we're not really talking about if the price tag accurately reflects the tech inside. we're talking about how we think people will react to the price tag. I see it pretty much like this: the people who're willing to pay a fair price for high-end technology want that technology to be hardware power, not the hybrid features.
breveglieri
Banned
And that's why Nintendo removed the console from the market
nintendo always seems to focus more on maximizing the revenue they can extract from their hardcore fanbase than providing a compelling value
i won't say it'll fail because this whole industry and consumer electronics in general are fucking weird but i think it's a really bad deal
i won't say it'll fail because this whole industry and consumer electronics in general are fucking weird but i think it's a really bad deal
LoveCake
Member
I hope it is, but honestly no, I just cannot see it.
I think that it will do worse than the WiiU (the same at most), and one reason is that the people who would be most willing to get a Switch are WiiU owners, but what is there for them, there is little point in getting one in the first year at least with all the WiiU ports and upgraded games and yes Zelda does look good, but save a load of money and get it on the WiiU.
I think that MK8 is a very good game and I still have it, the same with Splatoon which I have since traded in, Super Mario Odyssey looks ok but I have not yet finished Super Mario 3D World, so in essence Nintendo I fear have cut out a large number of potential people with this move.
I watched the stream live this morning at 4am UK time, I was of course interested in the Switch but was never going to get one (at launch) unless it was sub £200 and had some great launch games and I don't mean WiiU games/ports, I didn't think it would be sub £200 as I have recently had to get a new 3DS at the Nintendo Store UK Xmas sale price of £149.99 (that was down from £189.99) I just could not see how the Switch could be below £250, and when watching the stream like many others here I was disappointed, very in fact, they have held back WiiU games it seems for the Switch, but what games, there isn't any ready.
Nintendo are stuck between a rock and a hard place, I have seen lots here saying that they didn't get a WiiU but would have liked some of the games, some of which are the best of the Nintendo franchises and other gems like Wonderful 101, Bayonetta 2 and then new franchises like Splatoon and Captain Toad Treasure Tracker, but these games amongst others were not enough, and it looks like this is the case again as the Switch is in the same place sort of as the WiiU amongst the likes of Xbox1/360 and PS3/4, it's not as powerful and the same price or more expensive, yes it is portable and so was the 3DS and that didn't do well at launch either (I still have my original day one 3DS and play it daily), the Switch imo is too big to be a hand-held that can be taken out and about, that good looking screen uses a lot of power and is also susceptible to damage.
Honestly, I just don't know, when the stream ended this morning I thought "is that it" and I couldn't believe it, there must be due to NeoGAF's size and scope in the gaming industry and community people at Nintendo reading what people are thinking and saying and I really do not know how they feel, maybe they know things that I and everyone else don't know, but it could well be heart-breaking for them, I don't think there is anything else like games and consoles that people are so passionate about and also so hard on and negative, the last few days here have been swirling about in a euphoric mood with the anticipation and then in fifty five minutes it's shredded.
Nintendo supporters on social media were trying their best and retailers were also promoting at 1000% this morning and today, but I couldn't believe it, I still cannot that reveal.
Maybe I am wrong and I hope I am, but only time will tell, my really worry though is if the Switch is not a success, where does Nintendo go from here.
I think that it will do worse than the WiiU (the same at most), and one reason is that the people who would be most willing to get a Switch are WiiU owners, but what is there for them, there is little point in getting one in the first year at least with all the WiiU ports and upgraded games and yes Zelda does look good, but save a load of money and get it on the WiiU.
I think that MK8 is a very good game and I still have it, the same with Splatoon which I have since traded in, Super Mario Odyssey looks ok but I have not yet finished Super Mario 3D World, so in essence Nintendo I fear have cut out a large number of potential people with this move.
I watched the stream live this morning at 4am UK time, I was of course interested in the Switch but was never going to get one (at launch) unless it was sub £200 and had some great launch games and I don't mean WiiU games/ports, I didn't think it would be sub £200 as I have recently had to get a new 3DS at the Nintendo Store UK Xmas sale price of £149.99 (that was down from £189.99) I just could not see how the Switch could be below £250, and when watching the stream like many others here I was disappointed, very in fact, they have held back WiiU games it seems for the Switch, but what games, there isn't any ready.
Nintendo are stuck between a rock and a hard place, I have seen lots here saying that they didn't get a WiiU but would have liked some of the games, some of which are the best of the Nintendo franchises and other gems like Wonderful 101, Bayonetta 2 and then new franchises like Splatoon and Captain Toad Treasure Tracker, but these games amongst others were not enough, and it looks like this is the case again as the Switch is in the same place sort of as the WiiU amongst the likes of Xbox1/360 and PS3/4, it's not as powerful and the same price or more expensive, yes it is portable and so was the 3DS and that didn't do well at launch either (I still have my original day one 3DS and play it daily), the Switch imo is too big to be a hand-held that can be taken out and about, that good looking screen uses a lot of power and is also susceptible to damage.
Honestly, I just don't know, when the stream ended this morning I thought "is that it" and I couldn't believe it, there must be due to NeoGAF's size and scope in the gaming industry and community people at Nintendo reading what people are thinking and saying and I really do not know how they feel, maybe they know things that I and everyone else don't know, but it could well be heart-breaking for them, I don't think there is anything else like games and consoles that people are so passionate about and also so hard on and negative, the last few days here have been swirling about in a euphoric mood with the anticipation and then in fifty five minutes it's shredded.
Nintendo supporters on social media were trying their best and retailers were also promoting at 1000% this morning and today, but I couldn't believe it, I still cannot that reveal.
Maybe I am wrong and I hope I am, but only time will tell, my really worry though is if the Switch is not a success, where does Nintendo go from here.
onemanasylum
Banned
Well put, this sums it up well.
Jubenhimer
Member
Realy? Okay, I heard from somewhere else that the PS1 started slowly, then gradually gained an audience following the release of games like Crash and Final Fantasy 7.
Majmun
Member
Oh, I thought it was more than that considering its $90 price tag
FantasticMrFoxdie
Mumber
This is a tough one.
Before yesterday, I did think this thing was going to be a big hit. Like Wii hit. Conceptually its amazing, but all these obstacles thrown in there have me worried.
Now i'm only seeing an improvement over WiiU
I do think once Mario & Pokemon hit (you would be insane to not put pokemon on here) it could catch on. Hopefully 3DS levels or redemption.
Before yesterday, I did think this thing was going to be a big hit. Like Wii hit. Conceptually its amazing, but all these obstacles thrown in there have me worried.
Now i'm only seeing an improvement over WiiU
I do think once Mario & Pokemon hit (you would be insane to not put pokemon on here) it could catch on. Hopefully 3DS levels or redemption.
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