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[Sjefen]

If Nintendo start pumping out some stellar first party games they could probably be financially success. The funny thing is Nintendo dont need a huge installbase to sell millions of copies of a game. The attach rate for their first party game is insanly high. In the eyes of other gamers Nintendo will probably be seen as not succesful because of low console sales compared to the "competition"(Nintendo dont care about the competition)

Personally I think the Switch will sell alot better than Wiiu and be a commercial success.

 

[CanUKlehead]

Japan is the mystery here. I would put the Switch on the gamecube level, but i don´t know how Japan will receive this.

This can go either way; Japan hasn't been big on consoles lately, no? If I had to bet for Japan, I see it doing well though--if NCL can market it successfully as a portable, but moreso because of Dragon Quest, and what should be the inevitable MonHun and mainline Pokemon.

Edit: Now if Japan by itself can lift up global/LTD NS sales overall past Xbox One, or at least make up for what I predict are low sales in Europe, that's the question.

 

[CommandThrower]

I'm of the opinion that the console will have a slow start, but titles like Mario Odyssey, Splatoon 2 and ARMS will get people interested in buying it.

I think it'll steadily do much better than the Wii U.

 

[Fou-Lu]

After more thought... If it really ends up getting mainline Pokémon I can't see it doing anything other than amazingly.

 

[Femto.]

After more thought... If it really ends up getting mainline Pokémon I can't see it doing anything other than amazingly.

Seems like more of matter of when than if.

That is when I'll probably jump on the Switch.

 

[Schopenhauerian]

To focus the question in the OP a bit more, do folks have specific predictions about exactly when/how this chart (Amazon's current 'Best Sellers in Video Games' Chart) will change, over time?

What will this chart look like a few days from now? What will it look like a few weeks from now?

...My understanding is that pre-orders were open for some time, long enough to sell through the quantities that were available for pre-order, and to thereby make an impact on the chart...

We knew the quantities of Zelda's Master Edition would be limited, and that Nintendo would not be making any additional quantities available after initial supply was exhausted. So it makes sense that the Master Edition has dropped from #4 on the Amazon Best Sellers list – at around 11AM (see the first post, above), when it was already listed as unavailable – to #15, at the present time.

The Switch itself is still at #1 (unchanged), and Zelda's Special Edition is still at #4 (down from #3 at around 11AM), even though these two items had also already been listed as unavailable as of 11AM. It's not clear why these two items – unlike Zelda's Master Edition – have managed to stay at the top of the chart: perhaps Nintendo made additional quantities of them available at some point (before selling out again), or perhaps their 'staying power' is simply due to a comparatively large initial supply.

In any case: when do you think this Amazon 'Best Seller' chart will take a turn for the worse, for Nintendo? And will it be due to a lack of demand, from consumers, or a lack of supply, from Nintendo? Will Nintendo be able to recover from whatever drop occurs, in your estimation? What is most likely to be the cause of such a drop, in your estimation? What would be the best way for them to recover?

EDIT: The Amazon US 'Best Sellers in Video Games' chart, as of 1:55AM EST on 01/14/16: http://imgur.com/a/BuxZQ

To quickly follow up on the posts above, Reggie's statements to Chris Kohler of Wired (published at 8:34PM EST on 01/13/16) on the subject of supply:

https://www.wired.com/2017/01/reggie-fils-aime-nintendo-interview/
What we've said publicly is that there will be 2 million units that will be shipped worldwide for the launch, essentially through month one.

I know, because I read the boards and I read the comments, that there is concern about supply. From what I've read, the concern seems to stem from the lack of ability to buy NES Classic. So what I would say is this: Two million for essentially the first month is a huge number, especially when you look and see that this is not peak seasonality. This is essentially the first three weeks of March. Our focus is making sure that the consumer who wants to buy a Nintendo Switch can buy a Nintendo Switch. That's how we build our supply chain, that's how we think through the amount of product that's available.

What happened with NES Classic is that was a situation where the global demand was well in excess of anything we had anticipated, and that's what created shortages. The good news, at least for consumers in the Americas, is we're going to continue to make the NES Classic available. With the ongoing level of supply, the ongoing demand is going to be met. We know the concern.

 

[Noctix]

In my opinion with price cuts and good bundles it should do better than WiiU. I don't think it will reach 3ds numbers.

 

[Rats Off To Ya]

Amazing how $10 can absolutely sink a platform's long term success in anyone's estimation.

The Pro controller is simply emblematic of the entire console. Nintendo is trying to nickel and dime us at every step. It adds up. It's the Nintendo Tax taken to the extreme.

 

[Choppasmith]

I feel like this will be at 3DS level within a year or two when the big games start rolling out and maybe a small price drop/hardware refresh/bundle deal.

 

[Stall19]

I think whether this succeeds or not entirely depending on how it does in Japan. Traditional consoles are pretty much dead in Japan so I'm curious to see how the move to a more portable form will perform over there.

 

[AppleSeason]

Unless it goes down to 200€, I don't think so. At this time only people with disposable income or that forcefully need Nintendo ip's in their life will bother to pay for this. So pretty much like apple people that are starting to hate the products but there's not a valid alternative for them.

Personally I don't care. I'm going back to PC and not coming back. I still have plenty of stuff to play on 3ds, so...

 

[MegamanPoweredUP]

You people must be out of your mind...

Switch will be the new handled console and is going to get pokémon sooner or later. There's no way this isn't going to be succesfull.

About the price, I'm totally expecting a price drop on Christmas. Don't forget 3DS was pricey too but eventually did good after the price drop.

 

[Sesuadra]

Unless it goes down to 200€, I don't think so. At this time only people with disposable income or that forcefully need Nintendo ip's in their life will bother to pay for this.

I don't know about that. I pre-ordered the switch for 330€ yesterday at amazon.de. The last remaining stock is now sold by amazon.de for 350€. There seems to be a lot of demand even at that price.

 

[Bowl0l]

I think whether this succeeds or not entirely depending on how it does in Japan. Traditional consoles are pretty much dead in Japan so I'm curious to see how the move to a more portable form will perform over there.

If it depends on Japan, I wonder how they react to the tablet size.
Is it portable to the Japanese?

 

[HotHamBoy]

This will be a fun thread to quote when the crow is served in about a year's time.

Point is, it will be a success. Probably Wii U + 3DS numbers at the least, with the potential of near Wii level success based on just which third parties decide to jump on board and with which games.

I already have a nice, fat bird picked out for you, friend.

 

[hipsterpants]

I think the system's success is dependent on how or when it truly becomes the 3DS' successor. With that library (plus maybe a price drop at some point...) it would have to be successful.

I'm more optimistic than I was yesterday. Nintendo better not dick around at E3 this year though. Considering they literally announced games not even in development maybe they ditched the silly "only games coming out in the next six months" thing.

 

[Toki767]

Do we even know what HD Rumble is yet?

Is it literally something along the lines of 3 things that shake instead of just 1?

 

[III-V]

31 people do not know what an iPhone is?

 

[farmerboy]

Yeah, the more I think about this the more I see it dead in the water.

I'm happy to be wrong but I doubt it.

 

[PdotMichael]

Marketing

Reality

 

[marc^o^]

It will succeed if the price can get way down over time.

Switch is everything I wanted it to be. I regret people need to be rich enough to enjoy it and its accessories. It will slow adoption.

But the philosophy, the LAN approach, new rumble and motions, Zelda and Bomberman, classic Street Fighter 2 and Arms, Splatoon and Mario Kart battle mode. Some of my favorite multiplayer games are already there, with local MP gaming sessions I can provoke everywhere, with whoever I am. This is new. This is bold. This is awesome.

I hope it will do well.

 

[HotHamBoy]

If this is truly the successor of the 3DS (which in turn, would mean that it would get all the sequels that would be expected out of Nintendo's next handheld-- i.e. a new Animal Crossing, Pokemon, Fire Emblem, Monster Hunter etc.), then yes, the Switch would definitely do better than the Wii U. It'll probably do whatever numbers the 3DS is doing.

It'll be a modest success, I think. It'll definitely get that portable-gaming Japanese demographic, but whether it succeeds in America is up for grabs in my eyes. I don't think it's gonna be a smash hit, but I also don't think that it's gonna do Wii U numbers either. I think that it'll do a bit better than Gamecube, possibly doing well enough to have multiple models that push its success forward.

Trying to imagine this...

With this...

 

[Malakai]

75 million units by 2022.

50 million by 2020.

That will happen if and only if Nintendo start cutting pricing of everything before launch...

 

[Malakai]

Trying to imagine this...

With this...

Nearly Everyone in the photo are carrying bags. It isn't that big of a deal to have the Switch in your bag. I guess by the design not being clamp-shell would require an a case or some type of protection.

 

[zewone]

First revision will definitely be a smaller, more handheld friendly version.

 

[watershed]

Because I didn't ever buy a WiiU and am happy to pick up (hopefully many) WiiU Nintendo ports to the Switch, I really like what the Switch is going to offer.

But 2 years from now, I think we'll all look back at the Switch as another WiiU in terms of sales and software support. I don't want to be pessimistic about it, and I'lm gonna play the hell out of BOTW, but I don't think the Switch is gonna catch on in a big way.

 

[Sesuadra]

Trying to imagine this...
]

Don't need to. while living in Tokyo I've seen more than enough people with gigantic phones and tablets on the subway and train.

 

[HotHamBoy]

Nearly Everyone in the photo are carrying bags. It isn't that big of a deal to have the Switch in your bag. I guess by the design not being clamp-shell would require an a case or some type of protection.

This true! But the case is going to add bulk and it isn't going to be a smooth "grab n go, toss it in the bag, whip it out" situation.

Hands on impressions are also saying it weighs more than the Wii U GamePad. It also costs more than a 3DS or Vita, it's going to be a tough sell in every region, IMO.

Are people really going to let their kids take these to school? To break them on the playground or lose joycons on the bus?

 

[Lucifon]

They'll price drop or bundle heavily at Christmas to try bring in more, by which point the software will be solid. Pokemon will probably be out by then. The fucks given for the hardcore fans who preorder and buy on day 1 will be zero.

Basically I think it'll probably do okay in the end... Better than the wiiU.

 

[beastlove]

Didn't stop the DSI XL/3DS XL from outselling the vastly more portable models 5 to 1.


Subjective. Nintendo fan parents will want their kid to play the newest, most innovative games. Especially when their friends all have one already. A kid can't easily set up multiplayer experiences on a cheapo android tablet.

It's one of the cheapest console launches adjusted for inflation (4th cheapest to be exact). Comparing it to the PS4 is a moot point, as the PS4 cannot be a portable. They did do a small console exactly how you said, and they can't even keep it on shelves.


It's too early to say if it does portable or home console well. It appears to be at least Wii U level, which was a fantastically capable console millions have had a blast with. And as far as portability, 6 hour battery life and the tablet with joycon detached fits in most back pockets/all bags.

Up until a few months ago I would have agreed on the multiplayer stuff. Last week we had a couple of his friends round. One of them brought his iPad. They played roblox with one of them using my PC, the other using the Amazon tablet and the other using the iPad. All they needed was an Xbox live ID. I would imagine that is the way they are going.


The Wii u may have been a fantastic console for fans but it wasn't a success by any means. Also the 3DS being out of stock is a combination of low production, aggressive pricing over Xmas and Pokemon. The 3DS sold worse then than DS. This time around Nintendo are competing against £40 tablets and phones that are able now to play Xbox 360 standard games. Being the 4th cheapest console ever doesn't help when it will be almost the same price as the PS4 or Xbox one.

 

[Terrell]

I'd say over GameCube sales numbers at the end of its run, but by how much is going to entirely depend on its reception in Japan, in my mind.

 

[Lucifon]

I'd say over GameCube sales numbers at the end of its run, but by how much is going to entirely depend on its reception in Japan, in my mind.

Are any Gaffers here based in Japan? I'm incredibly interested to know what the Japanese consensus is on this thing online?

 

[Bowl0l]

Are people really going to let their kids take these to school? To break them on the playground or lose joycons on the bus?

I am also interested to hear the opinions of parents@gaf about the detachable joycons. That joycons are more expensive than a game..

 

[opricnik]

There is no need to bet about this tbh. It will be more successful then Wii U but much worse then 3DS. Quite simple.

 

[M_A_C]

There is no need to bet about this tbh. It will be more successful then Wii U but much worse then 3DS. Quite simple.

oh yeah? wanna bet?!?!?

I said Wii U tier, but I have a Wii U and no way I'm getting this thing.

 

[opricnik]

oh yeah? wanna bet?!?!?

I said Wii U tier, but I have a Wii U and no way I'm getting this thing.

I mean if you bought that abomination(Wii U) i am pretty sure Nintendo will get you in a few years with it games.

It looks like what Wii U should have been.

 

[watershed]

One thing I think the Switch has done well is deliver on its central promise of being a portable console. We will be playing Nintendo quality hd console games portably with the Switch. With decent battery life on a great screen with very few compromises overall. To me this is a better delivery of the hardware's central promise than either the WiiU or 3ds.

The WiiU launched with the promise that the gamepad would change console gaming. The 2nd screen experience, off-tv play, touch control, etc. But it was a huge failure and Nintendo were still trying to sell the concept to the bitter end with stuff like Star Fox Zero.

The 3ds launched with the promise of glasses-free 3d but the initial 3ds released with no face tracking so the 3d "sweet spot" was very narrow and easy to break. A ton of people turned off their 3d and never looked back.

The Switch has Zelda:BOTW running in console and portable mode day 1. That's as good a delivery on the Switch's central premise as I can imagine. It works, it looks beautiful, people say it plays well. Premise met.

 

[Bowl0l]

I hope OT set one rule. Any radical revision should be excluded from the bet.

For example, like XBox One removed the Kinect, 2DS without clamshell and being much cheaper.

 

[nekkid]

Marketing

Reality

I'm not entirely sure which is worse.

 

[M_A_C]

I mean if you bought that abomination(Wii U) i am pretty sure Nintendo will get you in a few years with it games.

It looks like what Wii U should have been.

Why? I have absolutely no want or use for it's gimmick of a portable console. Also when the Wii U came out it was at least on par with the other consoles power-wise.

 

[BlackSalad]

It probably won't meet gamecube numbers but I still preordered one since I skipped out on WiiU but I need Zelda

I've also bought a virtual boy, saturn, and dreamcast. No regrets though, had enough fun to justify the purchases to myself. I still have great vision despite playing a lot of mario tennis, galactic pinball, and wario! I still bring out the virtual boy from time to time, I have a love for that version of mario tennis.

The lack of games in the first year doesn't worry me, I have enough backlog as it is

 

[III-V]

I'm not entirely sure which is worse.

she never makes any progress on her meal, while he is chomping thru them like a nathans contest

 

[HotHamBoy]

I hope OT set one rule. Any radical revision should be excluded from the bet.

For example, like XBox One removed the Kinect, 2DS without clamshell and being much cheaper.

Better comparison:

DS Phat had tepid sales

DS Lite was a sales phenomenon

 

[MegamanPoweredUP]

Do we even know what HD Rumble is yet?

I think it's like a more immersive rumble feeling. Sort of getting the most close feedback to the real thing.

Rumble HD seems to be an awesome feature but I know third party wouldn't even bother with trying.

 

[Apt101]

Reluctantly, I went with "GameCube" tier only because they face a meaner handheld market than they did in the past (smartphones and tablets). But if it did better I wouldn't be surprised.

Definitely not Wii-style success. I mean, come on.

 

[Bowl0l]

I'm not entirely sure which is worse.

The marketing one because it is false advertisement.

Better comparison:

DS Phat had tepid sales

DS Lite was a sales phenomenon

can I have a summary on why DS Phat was bad?

 

[Bowl0l]

Edit: Double post.

 

[Mushroomer25]

If I was putting money on it? Absolutely not. I think logistically, this follows a slightly more favorable path than the WiiU - serving a more consistent stream of first-party content. Everyone who isn't Nintendo will forget the thing exists, and loyalists will buy in at a more frontloaded pace. After a few years of support, Nintendo kills it and moves onto the next big thing. They rinse, they repeat.

But I don't think success is impossible. The hurdles for this device are large, but solvable. You can see them gutting the more interesting aspects of the Joycons, and using that to drive down the price after a weak 2017 holiday. You can see them finding serious momentum by launching with Zelda, which might resonate with mainstream players in a big way. You can even see them backtracking on the online missteps before they even go into effect. This thing could be a hit, but we aren't going to know for awhile.

 

[BitterFigDanette]

The Switch will be a success. Not an enormous one. Not right away, but it will get there.

At the moment, the Switch is in its console phase. Has the prices of a console both for hardware and software.

Down the line, it'll switch to the handheld phase. After a redesign (NVidia is pushing the chips R&D, so efficiency gains are to be expected there rather fast) and a price cut. It will then have the price of a handheld, the autonomy of a handheld and the old Mario & co games will be sold at 39,99€.

Basically, will start off selling like a WiiU and end up like a 3DS. At a higher pace than both though.

 

[Cheerilee]

Nintendo's market position is amazingly bad right now, if you ask me.

I'm thinking about how when the WiiU bombed and 3DS was wavering, it became clear that Nintendo should have done what Yamauchi advised them to do before he passed, come up with a third pillar, that way Nintendo can diversify and mix up their timing and take more risks by being more able to absorb hits. The WiiU was a punch to Nintendo's stomach and 3DS wasn't strong enough to deflect it.

Nintendo's home console pillar is now gone. And they're trying a rebranded WiiU to save the handheld pillar from the 3DS's wobbles. It looks horrible. It looks SO strategically horrible. The best case scenario, which is the Switch being accepted as a Nintendo handheld, more or less (which 2/3 of poll respondents don't even see happening) represents an astonishing collapse for Nintendo and puts them in a strategically bad place. The worst case scenario (Switch is a WiiU-or-worse bomb) has the potential to slam Nintendo completely unguarded.

Nintendo really did nothing with their ridiculously-fortuitous combined Wii/DS victory. It's mind-boggling.

Welp, there's always cell phone games. And going third party. And that theme park sounds like a good idea.

can I have a summary on why DS Phat was bad?

It was rushed to meet launch and people hated the form factor, and the market never bought into the "third pillar" nonsense so it only succeeded as a handheld after it picked up the remains of the GameBoy Advance.