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[AbsolutBro]

Since I'm responding to a couple of you about my "You're all Despair!" post, I feel I should once again be clear:

That post is not made up of accusations. For many of you, I was truly stretching because there was so little ACTUAL scummy behaviour. Also it was like midnight and I really wanted to get to sleep. It's why some entries read like cliff notes and first marks.

>map stuff<

Also Agents of Shield is fun, I was just using it to call Launch.

One tactic I've seen for mafia is to basically repeatedly pose questions, hoping to draw out information or even hints from players.

Regarding the map, it would basically be looking for players to give up information about how it works, things that normal Ordinary Students shouldn't know. That's all I was getting at.

Re: AoS, yeah, I was just giving you a hard time.

Admit it, you're just letting Clippy play this game for you.

I'm not even sure Clippy would make a post that blatantly bad.

Absolut I don't understand what you mean by roundabout, but that was a cool exercise, might try it later

You have posts that commonly feel like "We shouldn't take about Crab/kg, but seriously, what about Crab/kg?!"

1677: I'm going to specifically not ask about Crab... by roundaboutly reminding everyone that we're in the THUNDERDOME and Tina Turner is watching us.

1610: we should talk about something else since no one is properly talking about Crab.

1685: Is pretty good. "Who would you vote for if we didn't have to vote KG or Crab?" "Crab."

I get that some of those (1610 especially) are a little tongue-in-cheek. There's just a noticeable amount of them is all.

And yes, AbsoluteBro, I am trying to avoid dogpiles. I prefer getting a good read of the situation before I commit.

Absolutely commendable. I just want to clarify that, to me at least, there is a difference between joining a vote train because it makes sense, and dogpiling. A major part of that difference is whether or not you can explain why you are deciding to jump on the train. I rarely have issues with a well explained post.

Like this one. ->

Nothing big as I've been busy, but looking a bit through AbsolutBro's posts (bless your postcount, especially with so little fluff) I found this kinda interesting. The important bit is below it. This starts almost 3 hours after Makai role claimed and 30 minutes before Hagi was lynched.

>snipped an explanation of my hunting non-bandwagoners, and then not bandwagoning onto Hagi<

It's as if he is avoiding the bandwagon, but he was busy at the time so I might be reading too much into it. Sorry for the long post, I don't like to cut away more than fluff/irrelevant content from quotes.

As per my above comment, I tend to separate band wagoning from "joining the vote". Chiefly the difference lies in whether there is a clear reason why a person is voting the way that they are. I didn't get a scum read at all on Hagi or Rest. And as I was coming down to the vote timer, I knew I had to get a vote in. In the end, I did exactly what you described: I avoided the two active bandwagons. I did exactly what I hunted before. A bit hypocritical? Possibly. Like I said, the chief difference being that I was able to articulate why I was voting for Makai instead of just "well, I don't think <candidate 1> is Despair, so I'll vote <candidate 2> instead".

But seriously, no snark, that's a damn good post. We need more like it.

 

[TL21xx]

Said it before, and I'll say it again, I was on the road for a significant amount of the past cycle, and was a late sub, that's why my post count is so low. I am playing, and will be able to continue to play going forward. Unfortunately, those days were out of my control. There will be a couple of days this coming weekend where I will be inactive, but other than those I'm in it to win.

 

[TL21xx]

Also, that post was made before yours Absolute Bro.

 

[AbsolutBro]

In case it wasn't clear from my mutilated post from last night, I will be voting for Crab before the deadline tomorrow. I am postponing the actual vote because I feel like we can actually utilize the time we have since our vote is in fact so limited.

I'm not particularly happy about the vote. I don't feel like Crab is Despair. Playing a bit, making himself a target, all sorts of reasons for his rather abrasive demeanor, but in the end his actual posts have always felt, to me, to have Hope's best interest in mind.

All that said, I don't see any way that we Hope can move forward, as a team, if Crab is alive. It sucks, but if we vote kgtrep out and he's Hope, then the people who have been after Crab will continue to go after Crab. We will almost certainly end up spending a lot of D3 discussing Crab being voted out again. That's two days that Despair gets to slip by as we focus on ourselves. It doesn't do us any good as a team. It's not quite as sweet to win while dead (RAINDOC!!! *shakes fist*), but it's still a win either way, alive or dead. It sucks for Crab, but he seems to understand it as well.

And if he's Despair, well, everything I said about him winning with us doesn't apply and good riddance to bad rubbish and all that.

 

[AbsolutBro]

Also, that post was made before yours Absolute Bro.

Which post? I don't think I commented on your post count, did I?

 

[sandalphon]

Yesterday, seeing that Crab went somewhat inactive, which, I was guessing, was due to real commitments and the lack of enjoyment he's gaining from this game, I was genuinely thinking to change my vote. However, I am glad he has returned today with a calmer air about him.

Crab, I understand it must difficult for you to participate, given your very visible status in the young GAF mafia community. Whichever approach you employ, your play will be scrutinized heavily, resulting in Crab-heavy discussion points.

Regarding your playstyle, some people have clearly found that it is difficult to gel with your approach. As a veteran, would you not agree that had you tailor your approach only slightly differently, you would have got a vastly different response from the other players? As you have observed yourself, once you’ve adopted a more laid-back stance, everyone seems to come out from their shells somewhat and discussions have been quite productive, even if the pace is a little subdued.

What were you trying to achieve with your aggressive mannerism and how would it have benefitted Hope when a lot of players seem not to be able to go parse through your disposition?


I have reviewed kgtrep’s Scene 2 and 3 a number of times. I will attempt to summarize both posts as follows:

• Scene 02 – kgtrep is pursuing a line of argument whereby Crab indirectly cornered Makai to roleclaim and once he did, Crab came down with admonishments heavily upon Makai, in order to establish that he possessed hindsight in the whole affair.
• Scene 03 – kgtrep is calling Crab out for being inconsistent in his stances despite a post early in the game where Crab advised people to suspect people with inconsistency in their posts. Kgtrep brought out examples such as vague voting reasons, vague defence of kingkitty, vague reason for townreading Rest and for Crab’s aggressive behaviour when accused of ‘flying under the radar’.

I hope that is a somewhat legitimate summation of those two posts. Bear in mind that I may misconstrue these big posts, therefore please take my summaries with the knowledge that they are simply my best attempts to decode kgtrep’s long posts.

My response:

• Scene 02 – Unfortunately, I do not read what had transpired as an intentional attempt from Crab to trap Makai to reveal his role only to establish hindsight in the matter later. He seemed genuine as he tried to get Makai to change his vote from a No Vote stance to be voting for any other player. He relinquished his pressure off SalvaPot to demonstrate his thought pattern.
  
  I do understand how kgtrep interprets the events, however. Undeniably, there can be multiple takes on the same sequence of exchanges, but I simply do not see the slant that kgtrep is presenting in Scene 02.

• Scene 03 – He makes a more compelling case here, and I can see how Crab’s stance can be seen as somewhat vague. To me, his various voting reasons were sound voting reasons for Day 1 call outs. He used his votes to incite activity and to obtain reactions from players.
  
  As for kingkitty, I believe I had also said a number of times that I consider him to have played a strange and bold hand in Day 1. And that his play did not read like a Despair play due to its high risks. I believe Crab felt the same and he was getting frustrated that this matter was dragged out further.
  
  For fairness’ sake, frustration is human but I do have to give kgtrep some points here because Crab started to adopt an antagonistic stance here onwards. Which later turned out to be something that does not benefit Hope since it polarized players towards behaving heavily on the basis of their like or dislike level of Crab.
  
  As for townreading Rest, I did not miss it for a second that he had townread Rest. I do not know how this was an inconsistency. But, as per demonstrated by CornBurrito, that it is very understandable to assume that once some people fight with each other, a degree of animosity will blossom between them. However, I did not see this from Crab. He commended Rest for his gumption and this came across quite clear to me.
  
  And finally, for his outburst at the accusation for ‘flying under the radar’. This is where Scene 03 lost me. It is unfortunate that kgtrep included this point in his presentation, to be honest. Simply put, Crab has been one that would personify someone who has NOT been flying under the radar. Following kgtrep’s many quotes of Crab, we can see easily that he’s ever-present, incredibly vocal and very intimidating. Placing this point at the end reads to me actually contradictory to the whole presentation.
  
  In short, I was not surprised that Crab had exploded when he was accused of ‘flying under the radar’. It is bordering on ridiculous, almost.

I hope that addressed a few things and I hope I have elucidated my position better with regards to this Day 2’s Time Bullet duel situation.

If there are further queries, please let me know and I will try to explain better.

 

[Terrabyte20xx]

This post was made 36 hours ago, and no one that has voted this way has addressed it at all. We've gotten reads from a lot of people, which is a good thing, but I don't like that so many votes for kgtrep are being given to him by default, especially since no one seems to think he's Despair.

Can people say if they went back and reviewed what he said?

If you haven't done so, would you mind doing so now?

I think it's better for Hope if people vote in a way that they actually think will help. As much as I was pleased to see Crab up on the chopping block at the time, now I'm not so sure. Many people have complained that they feel shoehorned in, and now it seems that the complacence that that has caused is making people throw up their hands and vote, instead of taking a look at the reasons for voting for Crab or kgtrep.

kgtrep voters need to respond to these two posts in particular:

Scene02
Scene03

I actually decided to go back and look at scene 2 again, and what I found was something.... Interesting.


First, KG gives us this:

Let us assess the damage on Day 1, when two people outed their PRs.

Given that goshujinsama had accidentally hinted at having PR, Makai wouldn't have wanted to reveal his own if his interest was for Hopes to have an advantage and win.

Makai did give us good reasons for no punishment on Day 1 (Posts #445, 450, 648, 790), and it was clear that he didn't want to change his mind.

And yet, Crab kept pursuing Makai (Posts #528, 644, 830) and continually asserted his suspicion (Posts #532, 535, 537, 540, 567, 631, 640, 709, 710, 852, 855), so that we would not forget about Makai and how his view did not align with ours and Crab's in particular.

As votes for Makai began to stack, he had no choice but to reveal having PR so that we would not lynch him.


I believe that this wouldn't have happened had Crab decided to pursue other leads and voted for them instead.

After all, he wanted all of us to, at all times, keep a list of suspects and use our votes to investigate them, so why didn't he do this himself?

Post #630




It's funny to see that, when Makai does reveal having PR, Crab claims that his aggressive action had actually been a preventive measure, i.e. to let Makai act normally in case he is Hope or has a PR.

Post #905


Post #909


Post #921


Post #951


Post #970



I want everyone to not fall into this kind of hindsight bias.

Take a good look on the bolded part, because that sentence is imidiately proceeded by this:

Crab could have knowingly set up this situation, so that Makai's response, whichever way, would garner him respect from us for being initiative.

Had Makai responded to Crab the way he wanted, he could take credit for hiding Makai in plain sight. Had Makai outed his PR under pressure, he could take credit for trying to hide Makai in plain sight.

We cannot know what Crab's true intent was.

See the problem yet? He says not to fall into hindsight bias, yet that is exactly what he does right away with his claim. He bases it off the idea that Crab is running some kind of gambit, maybe of the 'Xanatos' variety, by pointing out that Crab could easily claim either... But that only works as evidence under the assumption that he IS Despair. Not to mention it only works on the assumption that Crab knew he was a power role, another thing we only know from hindsight. He even highlights the flaw in this argument, namely that "We cannot know what Crab's true intent was." And then he goes on to say this:

In fact, Crab's degree of knowledge about Makai changes before and after Makai's reveal:

Post #559


Post #965

He brings up these two posts to highlight how Crab changed his stance of whether he suspected makai of having a PR. And here there is the most egregious of errors. In his post, his quote of #965 looks like this:

I suspected that there was something odd about Makai.

But the post actually looks like:

Because we;re about to lynch now (in the next forty minutes) and there are other people I would rather lynch. That seems obvious.



Nah bru. I suspected that there was something odd about Makai. That could mean he's a Hope PR, or it could mean he's a Despair PR. Surprisingly, the two are actually quite difficult to tell apart; both want to appear town-y while simultaneously not committing to much. That doesn't mean I know for definite which one, just that I suspect he is one of two.

HOWEVER, a Despair player knows full well he isn't a Despair PR - so they will *know* he is a (or is likely to be a) Hope PR. That's why I said Despair wouldn't need to rolefish - because they have the additional information Hope does not.

Finally, and most importantly, a vote does not mean I am going to lynch someone. It means I am considering lynching them at the present point in time. Sometimes, it's not even that - sometimes I just vote people to elicit reactions. In this case, I had a *number* of reasons to vote for Makai, all of which revolved around the key idea that I wanted him to actually play the game and not sit around doing nothing.



Yes, and then I'm chief lynch suspect. Mafia don;t win when they trade off 1 for 1 with Town, even if it IS Town PRs, simply because there's more town than Mafia. If I think Makai is Town PR, and I'm Despair, why do I try and lynch him? Why don't I kill him overnight? Especially because if he hadn't role-claimed, I could have been fairly confident nobody will be protecting him as he has been suspiscious all day.



I already have, so you're not reading. See my response to CzarTim.

Take a good long look at the bolded part, because that adds context to a statement that radically changes its perception. In the full post Crab explains that he felt something was off about makai which could mean anything from a regular Despair to a Hope PR. That means he doesn't suspect his is one or the other. Yet KG took it upon himself to cut up Crab's post in such a way that fits the narrative that he is trying to tell. Why couldn't he just shorten the post to include only relevant information? I implore all of you to look as KG's original post so that you may have confidence that I did NOT do the same. He finally closes with this:

Lastly, let us not forget that Crab was the one who gave us this friendly advice:

Post #451



Makai followed both suggestions, and Crab, rather than admitting his advice might have triggered Makai, instead told him,

Post #907

This... Is actually a valid point. FINNALLY! Too bad it only serves as mud that only has worth if the preceding argument is valid. And as I have just established, it isn't.

If you have been paying attention to the vote count, my vote is still on Crab. Do you know what I intend to do?

UNVOTE

There is already more votes for kgtrep than Crab, so I am confident in giving him the benefit of the doubt and letting him respond. But know this: I am very ready to vote you, so make it good.

 

[Makai]

Yesterday, seeing that Crab went somewhat inactive, which, I was guessing, was due to real commitments and the lack of enjoyment he's gaining from this game, I was genuinely thinking to change my vote. However, I am glad he has returned today with a calmer air about him.

Crab, I understand it must difficult for you to participate, given your very visible status in the young GAF mafia community. Whichever approach you employ, your play will be scrutinized heavily, resulting in Crab-heavy discussion points.

Regarding your playstyle, some people have clearly found that it is difficult to gel with your approach. As a veteran, would you not agree that had you tailor your approach only slightly differently, you would have got a vastly different response from the other players? As you have observed yourself, once you’ve adopted a more laid-back stance, everyone seems to come out from their shells somewhat and discussions have been quite productive, even if the pace is a little subdued.

What were you trying to achieve with your aggressive mannerism and how would it have benefitted Hope when a lot of players seem not to be able to go parse through your disposition?

It's all an act and he even admitted it.

do keep in mind that a huge part of mafia is social deception and that means the emotions people are displaying are not necessarily the ones they are feeling

For whatever reason, a lot of people associate anger with trustworthiness and it's clearly working. This is what Crab's accuser meant by "flying under the radar" - people don't suspect him because they are following his lead. It baffles me, because I had the exactly opposite interpretation of his outbursts. I voted for Crab because of Scene02, but I am certain he is scum because of his faux-indignation ploy.

 

[sandalphon]

It's all an act and he even admitted it.



For whatever reason, a lot of people associate anger with trustworthiness and it's clearly working. This is what Crab's accuser meant by "flying under the radar" - people don't suspect him because they are following his lead. It baffles me, because I had the exactly opposite interpretation of his outbursts. I voted for Crab because of Scene02, but I am certain he is scum because of his faux-indignation ploy.

I think that would be a TOO simplistic take on his response. Social deception can include a myriad of things, including role playing, fluff posting, playing dumb, barely posting and many other angles. I do not quite agree that angry disposition generates trustworthiness, but Mafia IS a game of social deception and a lot of people adopts different approaches to it. I don't think this discredits his reply in any manners, since he was telling the truth.

To illustrate, I have so far presented posts where there are very little emotionality contents. Is this the 'true me'? Or did I adopt it specifically for this game because I think people would trust posts without great emotional bias in them?

Are you not adopting a particular 'act', yourself?

My question remains, I would like to know how Crab explains his antagonistic approach if he was pro-Hope. How would this playstyle benefit Hope?

 

[Haly]

Are any of us really who we say we are?

 

[Makai]

Take a good long look at the bolded part, because that adds context to a statement that radically changes its perception. In the full post Crab explains that he felt something was off about makai which could mean anything from a regular Despair to a Hope PR. That means he doesn't suspect his is one or the other. Yet KG took it upon himself to cut up Crab's post in such a way that fits the narrative that he is trying to tell. Why couldn't he just shorten the post to include only relevant information? I implore all of you to look as KG's original post so that you may have confidence that I did NOT do the same.

Don't worry, I got you covered. Consider this discussion between CzarTim and Crab:

>facepalm<

Mafia wouldn't even have had to have rolefished, you made it pretty obvious by saying "wait for information, wait for information" when it's obvious no ordinary town role would get super useful information - CornBurrito surmised as much some time ago and I've suspected similarly. You then ignored *multiple* prompts to act like a normal town and not like an idiot or a power role. Well, at least you didn't say what your role does, so thank heavens for small blessings. For the love of god though, if you're ever a power role again, please play like you would an ordinary town.

... I'm really dumb when it comes to breadcrumbs which is why i made fun of them in one of my first posts, but if you suspected that he had a role why the hell were you still pushing him

like I'm not saying you are necessarily scum for that but I dont understand that play

A number of reasons: firstly, I wasn't super sure because I didn't want to think anyone would be that bone-headed as a PR, secondly, mafia don't kill people under suspiscion because they don't need to, town can do that, so by throwing a little bit of shade on potential PRs but steering away from them at the end you can keep them alive longer, and thirdly mafia knows he isn't mafia so they'd not have to worry like I do in the first point and would just know he's a PR and kill him, so by prompting him to give reads like an ordinary god damn player hopefully they'll think maybe he isn't a PR after all.

Shortly after, he posts this:

...

Pro-tip: I already have guessed about three to four players I think are at least somewhat likely to be town PRs. I have also guessed a further pool of about four more players I think are almost guaranteed to be town. Do you think this is useful information to be made public? How do you think Despair will respond to this information?

 

[Sawneeks]

Sawneeks I hadn't noticed this before, but you kind of did the same thing I was accusing TB of. First you made this statement when voting Hagi. I disagree with the logic but hey its an opinion, that isn't what I'm questioning here.

So Hagi dies, is revealed town, and you are now apparently 'considering' Crab and kgtrep.
Day 2 starts and, by chance, these two players are the only ones up for vote. But for some reason, you don't seem too happy about this (bolding mine):

I have stated it earlier but I don't like having my only power in the game, my ability to vote, restricted in such a way. While I was going to consider both as suspects that doesn't mean I was going to jump on them and call them out as Despair. For me, 'considering' them is going back, rereading, and keeping a much closer eye on their activity than before. Being confined to picking one or the other was not ideal and the responses from both sides reaffirmed my suspicions from Day 1 that something was up....they are both just very active, and sometimes aggressive, Town players.

Did your overnight considerations take you away from these two? Can you explain why?
Finally you return with this statement:

I explained it a bit above but I never stopped considering them. The 3 day rest period did allow me to think things over again without having to keep up with an active thread and instead of solely just looking at Kg and Crab I also looked at others. That, coupled with what Kg has said today and what Crab has said today, I'm feeling confident that both players are Hope aligned. To further that:

Unless I'm misreading this, kg's argument further convinced you that Crab is Hope. Could you explain why/what part of kg's posts prompted this conclusion?
I'm not accusing you based off of this alone but I'd like to hear more detail, if possible.

That is correct. A lot happened on Day 1 and I have to admit I messed up by not taking any notes at all during that period. So a lot of things I have either not remembered correctly or am a little hazy on but thanks to Kg's collection of what Crab said everything kind of clicked in to place for me. Almost everything Crab said during Day 1 was some form of advice or strategy to keep Town players from revealing things too early or making little mistakes. ( #630 , #909 , #451 ). A lot of the reasoning behind Kg's Scene2 post is that Crab purposefully lead Makai into roleclaming but Crab was doing nothing more than asking for a list of suspicions on top of giving advice. Makai's roleclaim legitimacy is on the table, but he clearly had a question being asked that he was avoiding when there didn't seem like a reason to avoid it. It was why myself and a few others voted for Makai; he was being cagey and dodgy for no real reason and it felt incredibly suspicious.

Also in regards to Kg's notion that Crab changed his feelings on Makai before and after the claim ( #559, #965 ) it simply proves to me that Crab was following his own advice. We simply do not talk about potential roles and who might have them, so if you think someone has one and is suspicious but you aren't sure if it's because of a Power or because they are Mafia, ask them questions. Calling out X because you think they have Y is a very easy way to get the Mafia to target Player X. So yeah, no duh Crab didn't say anything early on, we don't talk about it.

For the whole Crab/Rest argument that is almost one of the major reasons why I consider Crab to be Hope and it's one of the reasons why I think Kgtrep and Corn are also Hope. If you're on team Mafia why would you try to be in a fight with someone and be very vocal about it? Your job is to simply live and not get caught so why would you bring attention to yourself? That doesn't make sense. The more you post the more people look at you and look at what you say and it is easier for people to point out contradictions and inconsistencies. If you sit in the middle or the sidelines and either dodge arguments or try to end them then that becomes suspicious and feels like a 'you're hiding something' feel. Being open and willing to argue is more of a sign of transparency and it would be very hard to hide something when you are so open.

Aaand thats' what I have for now. Sorry if it's a little disjointed or weird, I'm fairly sick right now and I've been sleeping on and off all day so I'm really groggy. If you need anything cleared up just let me know.

All that said, I don't see any way that we Hope can move forward, as a team, if Crab is alive. It sucks, but if we vote kgtrep out and he's Hope, then the people who have been after Crab will continue to go after Crab. We will almost certainly end up spending a lot of D3 discussing Crab being voted out again. That's two days that Despair gets to slip by as we focus on ourselves. It doesn't do us any good as a team. It's not quite as sweet to win while dead (RAINDOC!!! *shakes fist*), but it's still a win either way, alive or dead. It sucks for Crab, but he seems to understand it as well.

And if he's Despair, well, everything I said about him winning with us doesn't apply and good riddance to bad rubbish and all that.

I believe someone said it a few pages back but voting for Crab simply because we won't shut up about him for the next few Days is not a good reason to vote. It's a very flimsy reason to vote for someone and it can be taken advantage of by Despair by always returning the conversation to that player in order to get them lynched.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

Are any of us really who we say we are?

I'm definitely who I say I am.

 

[Karkador]

Are any of us really who we say we are?

I'm a doctor and I'm here to help

 

[SalvaPot]

I'm a doctor and I'm here to help

Don´t let him touch your weewee, he is not a real doctor.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

Attention students, if you see a creepy-looking bipedal cat skulking around, please report it to the principal's office. Under no circumstances should you engage this lowlife nor let him touch your weewee.

 

[Ourobolus]

I'm a doctor and I'm totally here to help.

 

[Sorian]

I'm a crazy old man doctor and I'm here to touch weewees help.

Spoiler

I'm sorry

 

[sandalphon]

No response from Crab, sadly.

One note to keep in mind, for whichever camp: I would implore you all not to classify everyone who voted for your side to be 'good' and the ones that did not to be 'bad'. Another side effect of the duel mechanism is that it creates a polarity whereby players are divided into stark opposing sides, a clear and dangerously biased division of 'Us' versus 'Them'.

Logically, it would not be prudent or smart for Despair to put all of their eggs in one basket, therefore I believe there will be some hidden Despair in kgtrep's camp and there will be some in Crab's side.

This is why I dislike this particular ability in this game. It adds a very difficult layer for us, which as human beings, we are already very prone to our biases. We really do not need further schism between Hope players. Despair would be laughing their asses all the way to the bank when Hope players destroy ourselves from the inside out.

Should there be another player with this kind of power, I urge the player not to activate it. I would be very persuaded to vote against that player if this ability is employed upon us again in the future.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Regarding your playstyle, some people have clearly found that it is difficult to gel with your approach. As a veteran, would you not agree that had you tailor your approach only slightly differently, you would have got a vastly different response from the other players? As you have observed yourself, once you’ve adopted a more laid-back stance, everyone seems to come out from their shells somewhat and discussions have been quite productive, even if the pace is a little subdued.

What were you trying to achieve with your aggressive mannerism and how would it have benefitted Hope when a lot of players seem not to be able to go parse through your disposition?

Honestly? I still don't think aggressive play is bad; I think it has been made specifically bad by kgtrep's decision to use his power role. We *did* actually get a lot of information yesterday. The one "bad" piece of information - as in, having Makai supposedly outed as a PR - hasn't hurt us yet - and that's supposing it's revelation proved bad. Laid back play gives you games like AC last season, where everyone is cordial and everyone agrees with each other and people are non-controversial and nothing happens for days. It only becomes bad at the point there's a single conversation because then riling people doesn't get anything new because fundamentally there's nothing new to come out.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

No response from Crab, sadly.

One note to keep in mind, for whichever camp: I would implore you all not to classify everyone who voted for your side to be 'good' and the ones that did not to be 'bad'. Another side effect of the duel mechanism is that it creates a polarity whereby players are divided into stark opposing sides, a clear and dangerously biased division of 'Us' versus 'Them'.

Logically, it would not be prudent or smart for Despair to put all of their eggs in one basket, therefore I believe there will be some hidden Despair in kgtrep's camp and there will be some in Crab's side.

This is why I dislike this particular ability in this game. It adds a very difficult layer for us, which as human beings, we are already very prone to our biases. We really do not need further schism between Hope players. Despair would be laughing their asses all the way to the bank when Hope players destroy ourselves from the inside out.

Should there be another player with this kind of power, I urge the player not to activate it. I would be very persuaded to vote against that player if this ability is employed upon us again in the future.

I agree entirely with this post. As I've said a number of times, people who suspect you are not necessarily scum, people who disagree with you are not necessarily scum, and conversely people who don't suspect you and may agree with you can also be scum. There's a lot of tacit OMGUS voting go on this game, where if anyone feels pressured they immediately vote the other person and then try to find a reason why they did it, rather than finding the reasons for voting first.

And yes, kgtrep's role is not a pro-town role. Don't use it. If there is another person with it, and they use it, and it's not on me, I will lynch them immediately as a point of policy to discourage people from using it.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Also, Makai, my social deception point clearly isn't talking about me. I already made a post pointing out I was commenting on CzarTim's exchange with CornBurrito around the #1500 mark. Like, even supposing I was lying about how irritated I am, why would I then tell everyone that? I mean, I like to think that even if I was Despair, I wouldn't be the sort of evil villain who sits around laughing maniacally while proceeding to tell the valiant hero all the details of his secret plot so that it can be foiled. It just doesn't make any sense, and you're not thinking things through at all.

 

[SalvaPot]

 

[Deleted member 231381]

You have too much time on your hands.

 

[SalvaPot]

You have too much time on your hands.

Its the other way around, I am extremely busy.

And that is why I waste my time.

 

[kingkitty]

So we still have about a day before we hit the deadline, but there is something about day two that is now possible. Since we started actually looking at other people besides the two duelists, we have entered an unique and helpful position.

Knowing what we know now, we can make an educated vote, not for who we think is dispair, but who's death will give us the most information. I myself have an idea on who it should be, but I want to hear someone else's idea first, so that I don't sway the conversation one way or the other in the same post that I bring it up.

Even if I don't think Crab is despair, and I'm not voting for him, I suppose you could make an argument that Crab's death would bring more information. We don't know his role, while we already know kgtrep's, besides little details like how often he can truly use it. Crab is the unknown. And also, I have a nagging feeling if Crab survives this round, it won't subside some people's growing suspicion towards him, especially when kgtrep seems very hope-like. Half of the people will think "how can the school let Mr. Crabs get away with this!"

In the end, I think Crab can provide an interesting, proactive voice for the school. Maybe he prods too much for people's liking. But on Day 1, I liked seeing the tempo he was trying to push for, which is something I haven't really experienced much in other games. Animal Crossing had a bit more of a chill attitude.

 

[kingkitty]

pic

I want to be Jack Frost next time.

 

[*Splinter]

For the first time, I regret not having an avatar.

Crab: You've been responding to some accusations pointed at you, but I don't think you've made a case yourself yet. Who do you think Hope should vote off today, and why?

I'll have to re-read the conversation around your social deception comment, at the time I didn't see it as applying to Tim at all (unless you were agreeing with Corn?)

 

[kingkitty]

Not a fan of being reduced to my clueless jump on the AB bandwagon but the read lists are appreciated. I'll do that as well later today.

lol sorry I think I was going to type a little more, but I got a tad lazy.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

Funny to see who's law and who's chaos lol...

 

[Deleted member 231381]

For the first time, I regret not having an avatar.

Crab: You've been responding to some accusations pointed at you, but I don't think you've made a case yourself yet. Who do you think Hope should vote off today, and why?

I'll have to re-read the conversation around your social deception comment, at the time I didn't see it as applying to Tim at all (unless you were agreeing with Corn?)

I don't think it matters, particularly. I know I am town, I highly suspect kgtrep is town. From your point of view? Regardless of who you chose, tomorrow you need to not talk about them, at least until play has continued independently and you have new evidence to make a case on, which means you have to consider who to chose on the basis of that: that you're not going to carry on with them tomorrow.

kgtrep's abilities have largely been revealed, he's a known quantity. I am not. I am the high risk, high reward option; if I'm town I am much more likely to be useful than many other town players, if scum I am much more damaging. You also don't know whether I'm a power role or not, and if you suppose I am you can't really ask me to confirm or that wastes the point of making the gambit of keeping me alive in the first place. So, it depends on how conservatively you want to play.

Obviously I'd suggest keeping me alive, which is partially because it is in my interest, but partially because it is D2 and you can afford to play at least somewhat riskily in return for information or greater rewards.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Honestly, though, if I were mafia, I would almost certainly kill whoever you don't pick today just to spite everyone and make the day a waste of time; you'll go into tomorrow with close to nothing. So again, I'm not really sure it matters much. This day was probably wasted from the moment it began.

 

[CornBurrito]

Honestly, though, if I were mafia, I would almost certainly kill whoever you don't pick today just to spite everyone and make the day a waste of time; you'll go into tomorrow with close to nothing. So again, I'm not really sure it matters much. This day was probably wasted from the moment it began.

But you are mafia so you won't be killed in the night, ever.

 

[*Splinter]

I don't think it matters, particularly. I know I am town, I highly suspect kgtrep is town. From your point of view? Regardless of who you chose, tomorrow you need to not talk about them, at least until play has continued independently and you have new evidence to make a case on, which means you have to consider who to chose on the basis of that: that you're not going to carry on with them tomorrow.

kgtrep's abilities have largely been revealed, he's a known quantity. I am not. I am the high risk, high reward option; if I'm town I am much more likely to be useful than many other town players, if scum I am much more damaging. You also don't know whether I'm a power role or not, and if you suppose I am you can't really ask me to confirm or that wastes the point of making the gambit of keeping me alive in the first place. So, it depends on how conservatively you want to play.

Obviously I'd suggest keeping me alive, which is partially because it is in my interest, but partially because it is D2 and you can afford to play at least somewhat riskily in return for information or greater rewards.

I don't feel that the risk/reward is favourable here. With respect; we can win without Hope-Crab, we can't win with Despair-Crab.

Also for your last sentence: would you not agree that your death provides far more information than trep's?

I think you also undersell trep's value in the game. Some of his ideas may be a little 'out there' but it's nice to have a relatively trustworthy source offering a point of view that I can afford to place less doubt on (i.e I might disagree with him, but I can assume he believes what he says).

I'm not denying that Hope-Crab would be a valuable asset to us.

 

[kgtrep]

See the problem yet? He says not to fall into hindsight bias, yet that is exactly what he does right away with his claim. He bases it off the idea that Crab is running some kind of gambit, maybe of the 'Xanatos' variety, by pointing out that Crab could easily claim either... But that only works as evidence under the assumption that he IS Despair. Not to mention it only works on the assumption that Crab knew he was a power role, another thing we only know from hindsight. He even highlights the flaw in this argument, namely that "We cannot know what Crab's true intent was." And then he goes on to say this:

Hindsight bias does mean when an event has happened, a person says it should have been preventable/different, so you're right that I'm making a hindsight bias myself.

With his quotes, I wanted you guys to become better at looking at multiple sides to a story, rather than just accepting one person's argument.

With those quotes, I also wanted to show that Crab made an excuse for his actions rather than admitting that his aggressive actions might have caused Makai to out his PR.

Yet KG took it upon himself to cut up Crab's post in such a way that fits the narrative that he is trying to tell. Why couldn't he just shorten the post to include only relevant information? I implore all of you to look as KG's original post so that you may have confidence that I did NOT do the same.

I was definitely looking for evidences that would support my case, so I likely just missed the rest.

When I wrote my case, I always included the original post number so that you guys could go back to them and double-check my arguments.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I don't feel that the risk/reward is favourable here. With respect; we can win without Hope-Crab, we can't win with Despair-Crab.

I don't think that's true. If a) I am Hope Crab, and b) I am useful, then c) I will die. If I don't die, then either I'm not Hope or I'm not being useful, either of which gives you reason to ignore/lynch me. This will become increasingly true as the game goes on. I strongly feel town blew their powder going after me quite this early. There's a reason that if you ask any experienced mafia player, they'll tell you not to lynch the noisy people early. It's invariably a waste of time.

Also for your last sentence: would you not agree that your death provides far more information than trep's?

Yes and no. kgtrep's role is a known quality, his alignment is not. If you lynch him, your new information is an alignment. If you lynch me, it's an alignment and a role. Now, the odds are very probable my role is the default town role, in which case you didn't actually learn anything more by lynching me (other than that I'm not a PR, which is fairly useless information at the point I'm dead). If I am a PR, then you got more information... but it's now largely useless information and you got it by sacrificing potential future information that would stem from my PR. So, you do get more information, my I don't think it's useful information.

In terms of what you learn if I'm Despair, I think that's equal between both of us. For example, mafia normally plan things together and co-ordinate, so if kgtrep is Despair, you learn that mafia are not playing conventionally at all - they're playing much more aggressively than mafia ordinarily do. That's very valuable information to know, because it changes how you'll have to play completely.

I think you also undersell trep's value in the game. Some of his ideas may be a little 'out there' but it's nice to have a relatively trustworthy source offering a point of view that I can afford to place less doubt on (i.e I might disagree with him, but I can assume he believes what he says).

You're presupposing my guilt based on what you think of his innocence, then, which is not useful. Even if that weren't the case, it's not much good have a trustworthy source that makes bad decisions all the time. That's how town loses games, and I think it's pretty difficult to argue that kgtrep using his role now was a bad decision.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Should have read "but I don't think" not "my I don't think".

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Also "wasn't a bad decision".

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

Please proofread before posting.

 

[kgtrep]

You're presupposing my guilt based on what you think of his innocence, then, which is not useful. Even if that weren't the case, it's not much good have a trustworthy source that makes bad decisions all the time. That's how town loses games, and I think it's pretty difficult to argue that kgtrep using his role now was a bad decision.

It is a bad decision when we lynch you today, find out you were a townie, and then some of us think that it was. Until then, we do not know if my move was a good or bad one (we also can't without hindsight bias).

I don't regret using my PR on you. If anything, today just showed that you don't know how to build a case and support with evidence. I'm still waiting for that mega-post of yours that would have shown someone who had played more inconsistently than you.

The only thing you are good for is your knowledge of mafia.

 

[*Splinter]

Damn kg that's a little cold

If Crab is hope he's a valuable player, despite how things have turned out.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

It is a bad decision when we lynch you today, find out you were a townie, and then some of us think that it was. Until then, we do not know if my move was a good or bad one (we also can't without hindsight bias).

I don't regret using my PR on you. If anything, today just showed that you don't know how to build a case and support with evidence. I'm still waiting for that mega-post of yours that would have shown someone who had played more inconsistently than you.

The only thing you are good for is your knowledge of mafia.

I didn't write that post because there's no point. I asked you in a question earlier what you'd do with your vote today if I wrote a post that convinced you, beyond a shadow of a doubt, I wasn't scum. You effectively admitted you wouldn't change your vote - regardless of what I say. You'd already decided what you were doing with your vote before this day began, which is just dreadful play.

That, actually, is the real advantage of lynching you. You're a tunneller. You're the sort of person who will get a suspiscion, and then drive at that one suspiscion for the entire rest of the game until either they get lynched or you die, ignoring all other discussion, conversation, and potentialities. Mafia love those people, because they know exactly what they're going to do and can just let them get on with it. They're probably giggling right now at how stubborn you are.

 

[Swamped]

You know what? I think I'm going to wait until the next day phase to post my current list of suspicions and a full list of reads. This day phase is nearly over, and with this type of voting mechanic (two choices only) it's very easy for Despair to blend in, to rehash kgtrep vs Crab arguments and try to stagnate discussion. It's going to be nearly impossible to separate them from Hopes who adamantly believe Crab/kgtrep's alignment. If Crab does end up being Hope, then this day phase will be nearly useless in terms of rereads. Perhaps I'll read through again to look for wishy-washy-ness, that might be a sign of Despair.

I was away for a lot of this Day phase, but i hope I can start Day 3 with a fresh mind!

 

[Makai]

I didn't write that post because there's no point. I asked you in a question earlier what you'd do with your vote today if I wrote a post that convinced you, beyond a shadow of a doubt, I wasn't scum. You effectively admitted you wouldn't change your vote - regardless of what I say. You'd already decided what you were doing with your vote before this day began, which is just dreadful play.

That, actually, is the real advantage of lynching you. You're a tunneller. You're the sort of person who will get a suspiscion, and then drive at that one suspiscion for the entire rest of the game until either they get lynched or you die, ignoring all other discussion, conversation, and potentialities. Mafia love those people, because they know exactly what they're going to do and can just let them get on with it. They're probably giggling right now at how stubborn you are.

How can you call kgtrep a tunneller when his choices are you and himself? "Self doubt is creeping in. What if I'm Despair?"

 

[Terrabyte20xx]

My following statement means nothing more than exactly what it says, so don't read into it.


I find the above two posts hilarious and possibly ironic.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

How can you call kgtrep a tunneller when his choices are you and himself? "Self doubt is creeping in. What if I'm Despair?"

And whose decision was it to make the choices me or himself? Oh, that's right - his.

 

[Ty4on]

You know what? I think I'm going to wait until the next day phase to post my current list of suspicions and a full list of reads. This day phase is nearly over, and with this type of voting mechanic (two choices only) it's very easy for Despair to blend in, to rehash kgtrep vs Crab arguments and try to stagnate discussion. It's going to be nearly impossible to separate them from Hopes who adamantly believe Crab/kgtrep's alignment. If Crab does end up being Hope, then this day phase will be nearly useless in terms of rereads. Perhaps I'll read through again to look for wishy-washy-ness, that might be a sign of Despair.

I was away for a lot of this Day phase, but i hope I can start Day 3 with a fresh mind!

I think you should post something if you can. There is always a chance you could be killed tonight.

 

[CzarTim]

Awesome picture salva.

Should we end this day early? We're talking in circles again

 

[Deleted member 231381]

You know what? I think I'm going to wait until the next day phase to post my current list of suspicions and a full list of reads. This day phase is nearly over, and with this type of voting mechanic (two choices only) it's very easy for Despair to blend in, to rehash kgtrep vs Crab arguments and try to stagnate discussion. It's going to be nearly impossible to separate them from Hopes who adamantly believe Crab/kgtrep's alignment. If Crab does end up being Hope, then this day phase will be nearly useless in terms of rereads. Perhaps I'll read through again to look for wishy-washy-ness, that might be a sign of Despair.

I was away for a lot of this Day phase, but i hope I can start Day 3 with a fresh mind!

Got that right. What you've got wrong is that you've said it's very easy for Despair to stagnate discussion... and then said as a result of that you're going to withhold new material. That makes 0 sense. This day might actually be useful in terms of reads if people posted material.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

My following statement means nothing more than exactly what it says, so don't read into it.


I find the above two posts hilarious and possibly ironic.

Beat me to it.