Well what is it? And what is the message sent by "muslims" towards "french society" in recent years?
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François Fillon is officially the right's candidate for the French Presidency
- Thread starter Mass_Pincup
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DiipuSurotu
Banned
Damn, that's such a badass-sounding word (...for such a stupid idea).
Alx
Member
Unfortunately I think "cool names" have an impact on the way people consider it. I think it was the case for Brexit, for everybody it wasn't "the referendum about European Union adhesion" but "the Brexit referendum". Not really a neutral way to introduce the question.
It's interesting that there's always someone in these threads who doesn't know how statistics works. Also, Hillary was never even close to 70% of the vote and Brexit was well within the level of confidence of the polls.
On topic: Fillon doesn't sound that great to me and I definitely don't need a devout religious person at the head of the country that invented laïcité, but it's not like Le Pen isn't still much worse. I still hope for a miracle and at least one actual good candidate in the final ballot, but for "Anything but Le Pen" Fillon seems like good news.
witchedwiz
Member
whelp, as an italian, I see Renzi going back home as a lesser evil..
what I'm really concerned with is, who do we want up there...
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
As somebody way too familiar with Catholic nationalists of the neoliberalist persuasion (bless Supply Side Jesus), Fillon makes me wince real hard.
With that said, Fillon is a grey politician but at least he has the required estature and will face countless protests if he tries to enact most of the ugly stuff he wants. France and the EU will survive him if he wins.
Now he just needs to be extremely careful in facing leftist voters, not to scare them into not voting during the second round. Here's hoping he pulls a Chirac.
With that said, Fillon is a grey politician but at least he has the required estature and will face countless protests if he tries to enact most of the ugly stuff he wants. France and the EU will survive him if he wins.
Now he just needs to be extremely careful in facing leftist voters, not to scare them into not voting during the second round. Here's hoping he pulls a Chirac.
Nikodemos
Member
A lot of smarmy-ass fuckers, err, ahem, national politicians, want to gut the Commission in favour of more powers for the Council of Ministers. The Commission is autonomous trending towards independent, whereas the Council of Ministers is under the direct authority of the national governments (since it's composed of national ministers). And obviously the Parliament is toothless.
Basically, it would keep the Union powerless and locked to the whims of national politicians, again.
Sickboy007
Member
So you see him going as a lesser evil compared to...who the hell knows?
As someone who panicked for months with Trump chances, I know Le Pen has 0% chance winning french elections.
Fillon isn't a bad choice. After 2016 anglo saxons elections, by contrast he looks like a nobel price on every subjects.
He's just being a normal European these days. You can ask us anything and everyone will answer no first and ask questions later. People will vote against anything purely out of spite against the political elite, but definitely trust politicians to work out later what the question actually meant. It makes zero sense.
How?
Alx
Member
It would be irresponsible to dismiss her chances, but we're still a long shot from "she'll definitely win now" that many people claim here. Especially when they assume that left-leaning voters wouldn't want to vote at all in a Fillon-Le Pen second round. Such situation happens all the time during non-presidential elections, and the left almost always supports the party facing the Front National.
Also as it turns out, Fillon as right-wing candidate seems to be bad news for the FN. At least some of them admit it will be harder to face him than a more moderate candidate. Sarkozy would have been better news for them, since most people hate him anyway even if his politics aren't that different from those of Fillon.
Combination of taking votes from the Left and low turnout.
Black Republican
Member
can someone tell me why Hollande has low approval ratings i heard? Because of the recent terrorism? failed left policies? and hes not running for reelection?
damn
damn, even french politicians attack each other on twitter?
bruh or however you say that in french!
damn
damn, even french politicians attack each other on twitter?
bruh or however you say that in french!
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
If Fillon goes full National Catholic Thatcherite half of the country may very well sit this one out.
You don't want that.
It is time for him to emulate Chirac and try to grab some centrist and even leftist votes.
You don't want that.
It is time for him to emulate Chirac and try to grab some centrist and even leftist votes.
Alx
Member
Turnout is always big in French presidential elections, usually around 80%. Lowest it went was 70%.
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_des_élections_présidentielles_françaises_(Cinquième_République))
No, no, more in details. With numbers. How many votes she will take from the left and how low the turnout must be for this scenario to even reach plausibility levels?
Modern polling consistently underestimates right-wing voters. Brexit and Trump give La Pen an air of normalcy. People who voted for Obama twice switched to Trump.
It can happen. I'm not saying it's a done deal, but it's not something remote.
We have not entered post truth era in France. We have neither Fox News, nor Tabloïds. Le Pen has a terrible reputation.
Terrorists made Brexit and Trump, but just as France didn't buy into the "weapons of massive destruction" story, our country will not fall for the doom and gloom narrative.
Le Pen will make 40% at best.
Terrorists made Brexit and Trump, but just as France didn't buy into the "weapons of massive destruction" story, our country will not fall for the doom and gloom narrative.
Le Pen will make 40% at best.
Alx
Member
That is the only thing worrying me actually. We don't have that smearing campaign culture indeed, but this election may be the first one where internet social networks will play a significant role. And our politicians may not be prepared for it. Juppé was caught off-guard with strong twitter rumors about him being a salafist, antisemit or whatever. I don't know if it had real consequences on the votes (probably not to the point of making him lose), but he was quite bitter about it.
I only hope that the different teams are smart enough to anticipate such issues, considering it's more than isolated phenomenons right now. Maybe one of the benefits of those primaries is to be a rehearsal of the real thing, and will remember people not to take anything for granted.
There won't be a low turnout. French love the presidential election, there always is a bigger turnout for it than for the local or european elections. Right primaries did way better than announced.
If you look at the polls for both Brexit and US elections, the deviation from the polls is not that big. I would argue that considering the actual number of votes the US polls were actually pretty close to the reality, they just didn't get the weighting of each state properly. Which is a damn difficult thing to do having to play around with different turnouts that give for 1 vote a different weight in different states.
Yes, there are people who hide their options for polls, but their number is generally still within the margin of error. There is no case in history in which it can turn a difference of over 10% in polls, not to mention the current difference of 40%.
Even for a record lowest turnout of 65% Le Pen needs to find between the 1st round and 2nd round between 6 million (if she gets 30%) and 8.3 million (if she gets 22% as it's estimated now). In average she needs to double her number of votes. If there were so many left voters the left candidate should have no issue getting him or herself in the second round.
Franz Brötchen
Banned
And basically every country on earth doesn't allow for such high national spending on social issues, except for those in the EU or single market (effectively EU). So, if you want France to try being as independent as the US while simultaneously upholding any sort of wellfare state, good luck.
Also, why again did France want to not print its own money anymore in the first place?
Not seeing this pivot coming tbh. As it is, certainly not voting at all if a Fillon/Le Pen second turn happens.
Hold on to your butt, Breitbart is supposedly coming in France in time for the elections.
Franz Brötchen
Banned
Hahaha. Sure you're trying not to demonise Germany.
But seriously: Germany's economy isn't nearly as big as e.g. France and Italy combined. It is precisely this incompetence that is what's at hand not 'evil Germany' and precisely what I mean by 'absence of a functioning left'. France and Italy with some coordination would be able to call the economic shots, not Germany, so it's really just as much their fault not to present a viable alternative instead of kicking the can down the road.
And I am aware what you mean by stupid mistakes etc. Hartz IV, Schwarze Null undercutting neighbours blablabla.
That's what was needed to uphold employment in the world economy I'm afraid. How in the world is Merkel a neoliberal if Sanders, would he've become president, would preside over a country with STILL far less social spending and lower minimum wage.
Don't be an idiot and blame the successful country for other's lethargy, it gets you nowhere.
KonradLaw
Member
What message? Muslims in France are getting radicalized on their own just fine and nothing will stop it. already almost half of young ones think suicide bombins are always justified.
This train is driving straight into catastrophe and nothing will stop it now.
I love it when people use numbers coming right from their asses to legitimize looking down on people for having a different religion.
It's not that I love Renzi, it's that I dislike the alternatives.
Don't sell the hide before you shot the bear. I've been telling Clinton supporters that as well. Or you'll be the third nation waking up to a nightmare of a split up country and racists running through the street beating people up.
Sigh, Putin seems to be really good in funding states to mess up their well being.
.... I guess I"ll soon have to be quiet again about being gay , lest I piss off some babyboomer alt righter or "edgy" neoreactionary college white kid.If only he was a fraction as good at not fucking up the Russian economy.
Of course, but also remember that with the French electoral system, Clinton would have won. It's a popular vote.
His Majesty
Banned
His claim that half of the French muslim youth thinks suicide bombing is always justified, is a wrongful interpretation from a 2006 poll conducted by Pew Research. According to this poll 42% of French muslims in the category of 18-29 years old thinks there are circumstances when suicide bombing is justified.
That is still a very worrying number though and a sign that radicalization is not a problem to be taken lightly or ignored.
Well that is why I start to beleive that the whole reason neoreactionaries like him is that he is a good "Daddy figure" to them.
I mean the biggest thing that makes me laugh is their use of "cuck" and "beta male". Have they ever seen a pack of wolves or group of animals with a pack/social structure? There is ONLY ONE Alphas. The rest is brutally killed or submits. So they can't all be alphas. At best they'd all be Betas
. So if they really were "in touch with their instinct", they should beat the living daylights out of each other. Oh well it is the age old NAZI tactic, make people believe they are "special" or "chosen" and all the others are "inferior" and the cause for their "pain and suffering". We are in for a rough few decades.. especially if you're a minority. Get ready to be beaten up, disowned and put in camps again!
As we know that people like Bannon don't care one BIT about his fellow human beings.. as long as he gets what he wants... and so do their followers.
I just am reminding Francegaf, to not stay home and think "Don't worry the others got it!". Vote in the first round for your candidate.. but in the second.. please don't abstain and get a bitch like Le Pen in there... that only stopped being antisemitic as it was no longer fashionable... so she now is antisemitic to "Arabs" only (and other Muslims). Wait till the other Semitic people find out ... that it is only an excuse to reintroduce the good ol' conspiracy theories about Rothschild, Hollywood, Banks and other shitty crap.... because if you really beleive it stops with Arabic people? Then I got news for you, the only thing they changed with their anti Semitic cartoons, is the caption... the hooked nose and other insulting imagery stayed exactly the same.
.... Sigh... Jewish ancestors.. and gay... so I"m screwed
... oh and from a Hippie commune... so.. smelly hippy traitor too. . Well when I go, I'll go with pride .Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
This is an spectacularly shortsighted assessment as the French economy (which finances the welfare system) has reformed itself in order to make the best of the EU. Good luck trying to put that genie back in the bottle. It would make Brexit look like a walk in the park.
Mass_Pincup
Banned
I've searched and failed to see the methodology used to poll french muslims.
Is it in that paper or in another one?
When your leader fail to apply left values and policy, what's the point?
gutter_trash
Banned
why does the Left always resort to infighting instead of rallying behind a leader? don't they care about their country?
They just to handed it over to the Right on a silver platter
They just to handed it over to the Right on a silver platter
Intrinsic limitation of a less authoritarian climate.
Do others think Fillon is an hasshole?
He's rigorist and has convictions that you may not share, but in terms of behavior he has always been moderate and dare I say, exemplary through his political career. Did I miss something?
Also, Le Pen unlike trump is a known quantity. French people depise the Le Pen family from what I heard, but they may be receptive to their ideas.
His Majesty
Banned
page 57 of the paper
Alx
Member
Because they don't have a decent leader to rally behind, so everybody is considering taking its chance. The last politician of the left who had a chance of rallying most of the party was Dominique Strauss Khan.
Hollande doesn't have much charisma, and comes out of the presidency with one of the lowest approval rate ever. But not running for the elections would be an admission of failure and the end of his political career. Manuel Valls has better chances and probably wants to go for it, but he's currently stuck precisely because he's supposed to "rally behind the leader" (aka Hollande).
Then you have the usual far left parties that always go on their own since they have their own vision for the country and wouldn't accept any compromise. Those are actually just as dangerous than Front National, and better left alone.
The only outlier for now is Emmanuel Macron, who was supposed to be in "team left" but decided to run on his own. In normal situations his chances would be low, but with the current trend of anti-establishment votes and surprise results, you never know. (not that he's really anti-establishment, but he can be preceived as such since he "rebelled" against the government).
Oh no, is France also becoming part of the decay of western democracy? I always thought they were super liberal and progressive about everything.
I know Canada is still locked down, how is Germany holding up?
We need at least one country to continue making progress. 2017 is looking like the beginning of the end.
I know Canada is still locked down, how is Germany holding up?
We need at least one country to continue making progress. 2017 is looking like the beginning of the end.
Nikodemos
Member
As long as the lefties hold their noses and slap their stamp on Fillon in the second round, it'll squeak by once more. Same goes for the righties and Macron (slim though his chance might be).
NYCmetsfan
Banned
The polls were right about hillary nationally. She won about the margin expected.
The problem is the US uses a messed up system. France uses a national vote.
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