NYCmetsfan
Banned
I think they'll face russian interference but since they have a strong multiparty parlimentary democracy I think they'll likely be able to cobble a majority of liberals
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François Fillon is officially the right's candidate for the French Presidency
- Thread starter Mass_Pincup
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I think they'll face russian interference but since they have a strong multiparty parlimentary democracy I think they'll likely be able to cobble a majority of liberals
Peter Ian Staker
Member
Alx
Member
Don't get caught in the hyperbole too much. People read "supported by anti-gay marriage association" and imagine a hateful politician with a puritan program, but Fillon is still a moderate everything considered. The right has always been more conservative on social questions, and the gay marriage law is a product of the left government.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
First of all there are still more votes to count. The margin will likely be about 2% the real clear politics average (which I think is a straight average had 3.2). http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
and most importantly they hit what hillary's percentage would be. They missed trumps support.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Isn't he pretty extreme in cutting workers rights and the public sector?
(to be fair this has been a common thing in the EU since the crash. I remember spain pushed through some new limits and cuts and the UK pushed Zero-hour contracts more when the torries won)
Ironically I think the workers who've had it the best have been places with out rigid contracts like the nordic countries and germany where the unions are much less reliant on the government for good contracts
Alx
Member
Extreme by French standards, but not that much compared to the rest of Europe. "Cutting workers right" is actually allowing companies to have work weeks longer than 35 hours (in agreement with the workers, which will be the unrealistic part), adding firing conditions to unlimited contracts (which seems fair to me), and such things.
The public sector part is more drastic indeed, but all candidates of the right claimed they would cut thousands of public jobs anyway, he was just the one with the highest number (and probably not realistic either).
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Alx
Member
I wasn't sure how to translate it in English. There are basically two types of work contracts in France, "Contrat à Durée Déterminée" (CDD) that only run for specific durations (a few months/years), and "Contrat à Durée Indéterminée" (CDI) that don't have any limitation.
Culturally, everybody wants a CDI (unlimited) for the safety and stability it provides (most people are still looking for a comfortable job they'll keep their whole life). It's very difficult/expensive for an employer to break such contracts, and many employers claim it makes them more "afraid" to hire people when the market is fluctuating.
It's worth noting there's already a way to end such contracts through mutual agreement ("rupture conventionnelle"), but it's more of a best case scenario, when both employer and employee want to end the contract.
Fillon's idea is to let employers add conditions that could end the contract if they're not met. He isn't exactly clear on what kind of conditions he's considering, he'd probably leave the decision to the employer.
Nikodemos
Member
Exactly what it says on the tin. Contracts with no time limit for renewal. Basically renewal-free contracts.
It's been terribly difficult to fire people on continuous contracts in France, which is why many companies have resorted to multiple fixed length ones, however there are limits on those as well, since after a certain number you need to either fire the worker (but you risk a lawsuit, which you'll likely lose) or give him/her a continuous contract.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Ah. I don't think those exist in the US
Like I worked for a union with a super good contract but it expired after so many years (it was an industry wide contract) though it contained stipulations about how you could fire someone (basically there's an independent judge)
I'm not voting for Fillon and I'm not voting for Le Pen, they're both just as bad for me.
Fillon, c'est Le Pen version "lisse", c'est Sarko sans le "bling bling", c'est du pareil au même.
Mass_Pincup
Banned
Unless I'm missing something it only explains the methodology for US muslims. I meant the methodology for the french muslims.
Alx
Member
Fillon won't actively try to destroy the EU, and that's already a big enough difference for me.
Also let's not play into the last trending rumors, why has Fillon suddenly become a despicable being in the last few days, when he's been active for years and never changed his position ?
It's a bit absurd that I'm here defending him when I voted against him yesterday, but come on, who do you think is fanning the flames right now ?
Franz Brötchen
Banned
Of course there was a much 'better' wellfare system in France before, let's say the 1990s. As was also the case in (West) Germany and pretty much all over Europe (even in pre-Thatcher UK!).
That was however a time when China was basically as influential economically as Africa still is today. The point is that others have roughly caught up to the West's industrial capabilities w/o completely enlarging the corresponding market. Competition simply has become tougher and unless you don't own a single piece of electronics made in China, Taiwan, or even Korea, you've directly contributed and profited from those circumstances.
I've never liked him at all. That's nothing new for me. But I'll be honest, I hate most of the current political lineup in France.
I will be hard pressed to vote for anyone beside Melanchon and I don't even like him.
Valls? GTFO, Holland? Shitastic president, Bayrou? Hypocritical asshole, Le Pen? human trash, Fillon? Thatcher in France
No thanks
Yes, I understand disliking him for his positions fine, but the level of distaste for him seems unusual, and it's worrying that people intend to help Marine le Pen end the EU by not voting for him because of this distaste.
Well this is how it would pan out if we had a PS - FN second round.
Most of the right minded voters will pick Le Pen over the left candidate, because the border between the far right and the "traditionnal right" has been muddied so much that it's barely distinguishable outside of a few bullet points like the EU on which Le Front National can't do shit about even if somehow Marine got elected.
Why is it always the left's responsability to prevent FN officials from beeing elected? As seen time and time again, right wing politicians will abstain or stay in the running when they're third place
Lagspike_exe
Member
Mass_Pincup
Banned
You can get fired, just not because your employer feels like it.
More like the french people fought tooth and nail to keep actual human working conditions. Unless you're somehow thinking that the US model is to be emulated?
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
It's everyone's responsibility to prevent the EU from being lost, and it's extremely juvenile to say "Yeah but the other kid talked too and he isn't getting punished". It's not like the person you're replying to is a member of Les Républicains, and if there was any evidence this was going to be a PS-FN election he'd be asking LR voters to vote PS. Spite should not be the primary animator of your politics.
Why is it the lesser evil? If we get pd again it's gonna be fucking D'Alema, the right is obviously awful, M5S is the worst...
I don't like Renzi at all, but I think he is the lesser evil. Furthermore, we're not voting Renzi, we're voting on the constitutional reform, which I was not a fan of but the more I read about it the more positive I am honestly.
Lagspike_exe
Member
US model is one thing, 35 hour week with extreme worker protection is a joke in this economy. How exactly are you supposed to compete in manufacturing with Asian competition with these types of laws?
And yes, I think your employer should be ablest to fire you without due explanation. If you're not generating value, private enterprise won't pay you. That's why welfare exists.
I'm just saying that it's not as clear cut as, say, "Stop le FN" like it was in 2002.
If it's a FN - PS confrontation, Le Pen will win.
Edit : also having either Le Pen or Fillon as president barely changes anything for me, they're both equally bad.
And here we go again, both sides of the same coin, right? Despite one being the most racist/isolasionist there is France. Don't vote against Le Pen and you are part of the problem.
So when you're seeing the terrible working conditions in china, your first thought is to join that race to the bottom? Why not go back to industrial revolution era working conditions while we're at it?
You can't be naïve enough to think that the people that push for more flexibility in firing practices are not the same that want to gut welfare right?
I mean, it's crazy. The United States are literally a living example of how much bullshit this whole line of thinking is.
(And if it's any consolation for you, the 35h work week is not applied uniformly. 1/5 of the working people fall under the "cadre" status ((which seems to translate to executive)), people who don't get paid for overtime. That's not even going into the fact that more hours of work != more/better work produced)
Palette Swap
Member
Five months before the first round, I'd say the biggest concern of people who disagree with him shouldn't be to talk themselves into or out of voting for him but making sure their voice is heard on the first round and carried into the run off.
I'm pretty doubtful on his ability to deliver and even stay this "hardline" course over the next few months, given that:
- much smaller labor reforms have been met with public outcries and protests over the past decades.
- I don't know that his current platform and approach will get him any kind of working class (in a broad sense) vote. We're already seeing this as that's what Le Pen has begun attacking him on.
It's partly on Fillon himself, as he campaigned on this before the first round of the primary: he needed to distance himself from Sarkozy and basically played the narrative that all these years, Sarkozy was dragging down his willingness to reform the country, and that he'd deliver diligently but intransigently on it if given the mandate. So there's that.
I'm pretty doubtful on his ability to deliver and even stay this "hardline" course over the next few months, given that:
- much smaller labor reforms have been met with public outcries and protests over the past decades.
- I don't know that his current platform and approach will get him any kind of working class (in a broad sense) vote. We're already seeing this as that's what Le Pen has begun attacking him on.
Lagspike_exe
Member
Fairytale economics that don't make logical sense don't work. If the Chinese are working more for less you'll either have to adjust working conditions, boost productivity, depreciate you're currency or a mix of these. The other path is hollowing your industrial base so no one is left to pay for the entitlements and fund pay-as-you-go pension schemes.
I agree that working more does no always equal more productivity. But putting random work hour caps makes no economic sense.
He's probably going to moderate some of his policy positions eventually but keep his hardlined stance on some issues to steal reluctant FN/le pen supporters. Dude's going to be playing games with her.
I didn't say that. And I don't know why you're being so aggressive.
Nikodemos
Member
Because we've just had the most unprepared, incompetent, opportunistic, in one word worst possible candidate take the driver's chair of the world's most powerful empire.
Do we really need more similar fucktards in positions of power throughout the world?
Franz Brötchen
Banned
I agree very much with this. Also, I'll bet money that anyone seriously crying foul over slave-like labour in China, still greatly appreciates the upside of those busines practices when it comes to buying electronics...
France and others are just hoping that globalization will breeze past them, still allowing them to operate as if China were still a 3rd world country. Well no lovelies, other people can build working nuclear plants and high speed trains, too. And they are willing to make them cheaper. Can't escape that competition.
Some level of manning up to that, just as oh-so-despicable Germany has done in the past decade must take place. It's inevitable because, as mentioned, French people just as anybody else don't really like paying stupid premiums when cheaper alternatives exist.
What "fairytale economics"? The one that brought the 2008 economic crisis? The same one that is most likely going to cause another one in the decade? Still the same one that squeezed the working class so hard that they made them flee in the arms of egotistical maniacs, now twice this year?
It's too easy to dismiss socialist ideas with diminishing epithets, especially when the current economic policies are demonstrably not working anymore for most people.
Gurgelhals
Member
Franz Brötchen
Banned
Why are you only quoting the American example? I know that for us continental Europeans the absence of any welfare state is allegorical hell on earth, but what about Germany if I may ask?
I very much think that to a certain level, a balance was found where there still definitely is a strong welfare state but simultaneously low unemployment. Extremely low youth unemployment I might add. Thinking black and white won't solve any of France's non-imaginary problems, I'm afraid.
Lagspike_exe
Member
Fairytale economics where you ignore the revolutions in industrial development in previously 3rd world countries and keep insisting that everything can be the same. The iron curtain fell, so the huge human potential of Russia got unlocked. They are now exporting nuclear powrplants left and right and gearing up with the Chinese to build wide-haul planes, targeting French strategic exports.
The bamboo curtain also fell so now you have Huawei developing telecom networks in Africa supported by ultra cheap Chinese credit. This would otherwise be done by Alcatel / Ericsson. Also, cheap manufacturing which is a reality.
You can claim that increasing competitivness of an economy destroys the working class. The reality is that Eastern countries would eat Western companies for breakfast if the wages didn't (in real terms) fall during the past three decades. It's simple mathematics.
Franz Brötchen
Banned
Pretty sure that some in this thread quoted the existence of the French welfare state before the EC and EU as proof that the French model is viable. Well, so I claim the same for Germany then.
And if you don't like the German example, take Switzerland which doesn't even need that sort of 'manipulation'.
I know you didn't even name it, nevertheless I can also adress another elephant in the room: 'German currency manipulation', by which I simply mean the bizarre fact that Greece and Germany are supposed to be largely the same economy due to having the exact same currency including the same central bank.
I very much agree that this is just bullshit and that anyone in €-land who isn't Germany suffers from it (except maybe Austria, the Netherlands, even Finland struggles). But it's just a historical fact that it was exactly France that wanted to share Germany's currency in exchange for allowing German reunification. If the idea there was indeed to secure Germany not outperforming France, Italy or any 'soft' currency holder prior to the €, this obviously backfired spectacularly. But still, neither German government nor the German electorate wanted this particular detail, that's on you France.
It isn't about being Liberal, infact Germany is currently ruled by a Conservative woman (Christian Democrat). It is about personal morals, you know.. not wishing your fellow human being to die for being black, gay, hispanic, arab, jew... those kind of things.
You might despise Merkel, but at least she doesn't do that. The Bavarian branch of that same party though....... they never really moved beyond the NAZI part
.Well in their defense: WE produce far to much, our electronics consumption alone is a burden on this earth. So we actually ALL can work far less, and concentrate more on science and art.. while still working enough to maintain our food and electronic production. But for that we first need a change in world ethos
.Thanksgiving kinda made me forgot about this.
As everyone we celebrated Nicolas Sarkozy's demise (again), at least we're rid of him for a while.
As for Fillon, I'm not going to support that guy.
He's not going to support the left if it's going to block the extreme right so I don't see a point in entertaining to support his position when they're roughly similar to the far right.
I'm never supporting anyone who wants to go back on abortion right, Europe be damned.
As everyone we celebrated Nicolas Sarkozy's demise (again), at least we're rid of him for a while.
As for Fillon, I'm not going to support that guy.
He's not going to support the left if it's going to block the extreme right so I don't see a point in entertaining to support his position when they're roughly similar to the far right.
I'm never supporting anyone who wants to go back on abortion right, Europe be damned.
exmachina64
Banned
This was the exact logic used by many Americans and I can assure you -- they're not equally bad.
Sickboy007
Member
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Remember that there are 400,000,000 people in Europe and not France, many of whom depend on the EU project for quality of life, dignity, and access to resources they need. And they don't get to vote in the French election, even though it impacts them in a very profound way.
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