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[flatearthpandas]

Confirmation is confirmation. Unless you have more to claim, you don't have a night action and won't have anything new to tell us tomorrow and this game is way too slow for there to be value in dragging things out any longer than they need to be.

 

[Kawl_USC]

Confirmation is confirmation. Unless you have more to claim, you don't have a night action and won't have anything new to tell us tomorrow and this game is way too slow for there to be value in dragging things out any longer than they need to be.

Look at today's flip.

I was hoping you could read between the lines without me having to outright say it for scum.

 

[Kawl_USC]

Vote: No Lynch

But what you are saying now is making me hella suspicious of you FEP.

Your logic today doesn't seem to be lining up with your logic yesterday.

 

[flatearthpandas]

Call me thick but I don't get it.

 

[Kawl_USC]

Call me thick but I don't get it.

You watched Gorlak night 2, correct?

 

[Flame_AC]

Why should we even lynch Kawl if we're all supposedly so sure he is town. Why not hit one of the other unknowns. Is it because on the next day scum could hammer-win?

 

[Kawl_USC]

Why should we even lynch Kawl if we're all supposedly so sure he is town. Why not hit one of the other unknowns. Is it because on the next day scum could hammer-win?

Wait. Six is still 4 for majority. Minus one is only 3.

FEP you getting me all worked up over nothing?

 

[flatearthpandas]

Of course, should kawl be scum caught in some gambit gone horribly wrong, we won't need to no lynch tomorrow and can instead hunt the last scum. If Kawl is town, we need to lynch him anyway.

So there's a reason not to do it today.

Kawl, would appreciate a read list. If you have more to spill, there's no harm right now. You won't be around the next time scum can act. Again, I recommend everyone save more claims for tomorrow.

 

[Kawl_USC]

Of course, should kawl be scum caught in some gambit gone horribly wrong, we won't need to no lynch tomorrow and can instead hunt the last scum. If Kawl is town, we need to lynch him anyway.

So there's a reason not to do it today.

Kawl, would appreciate a read list. If you have more to spill, there's no harm right now. You won't be around the next time scum can act. Again, I recommend everyone save more claims for tomorrow.

You aren't getting anything from me until you answer the question I've asked several times now.

 

[flatearthpandas]

Wait. Six is still 4 for majority. Minus one is only 3.

FEP you getting me all worked up over nothing?

Oh shit.
Hold on. My bad.

 

[Kawl_USC]

Oh shit.
Hold on. My bad.

If you believe no lynch is the correct option, your only other move is to lynch me.

Lynch in someone not me, plus NL into NK is scum win next day by hammering me. I'd prefer 2 lynches with me involved obviously as I know I'm town, and I believe on the whole most people have been reading me as town.

 

[flatearthpandas]

Why should we even lynch Kawl if we're all supposedly so sure he is town. Why not hit one of the other unknowns. Is it because on the next day scum could hammer-win?

Yeah. At 3 vote majority, scum can hammer the win on a hated.

Wait. Six is still 4 for majority. Minus one is only 3.

FEP you getting me all worked up over nothing?

So wait. Let's pretend we nl today.
I count from beginning of the phase, not the end.

D4: 5/2 4 maj
D5: 5/2 4 maj
D6: 3/2 3 maj game over unless kawl is the d5 lynch, lylo otherwise
+N4, 5 investigations

Let's pretend we lynch hated kawl

D4: 5/2 4m
D5: 4/2 4m mylo
D6: 3/2 lylo if nl d5
+n4 investigation

Please check this, but I think kawl needs to go regardless.

 

[flatearthpandas]

I think the only lynch we can afford you to be in is your own, kawl. Let's go over it carefully though. Math is definitely not my thing, so apologies.

And yes, I watched Gorlak n2.

 

[flatearthpandas]

Guess this is a worthwhile scenario to add.

We lynch anyone besides kawl today:

D4: 5/2 4 maj
D5: 4/2 4 maj lylo (kawl is scum hammered next day)

 

[Kawl_USC]

Aka the variables are always 2 lynches. It comes down to whether you think the additional night actions/removal of another townie outweighs the chances of lynching another person who is more than suspicious of me.

It's either lynch me and someone else.
Or lynch two someone else's.

 

[flatearthpandas]

I see. If we you alive our effective lylo is with 6 players instead of 5. Worse odds of hitting scum. We also have less night action results because we can only guarantee getting to d6 buy lynching you.

So how does you being alive outweigh an extra night of results and a smaller pool of candidates in lylo?

 

[flatearthpandas]

...and I basically paraphrased lol.

But really, same question stands. Why are you more valuable to us than the extra day?

Sophia and Flame have both been suspicious of you. Gryvan was suspicious of you.

 

[Kawl_USC]

There just isn't a logical explanation for why I would openly volunteer that I am hated if I'm scum.

And I know I'm town so obviously I think two lynches on people who aren't me versus just the one gives us better info. 1/7+1/6 is better than the 1/5 chance on the one shot yall have after I'm lynched and the no lynch. But as I've said to Sophia yesterday, that doesn't exactly mean shit to yall.

But FEP can you answer the second half of my question regarding watching Gorlak then? It should expose the problem I had with your logic earlier.

 

[Kawl_USC]

Also for the love of God can someone, any one else weigh in on this issue.

 

[Sophia]

...and I basically paraphrased lol.

But really, same question stands. Why are you more valuable to us than the extra day?

Sophia and Flame have both been suspicious of you. Gryvan was suspicious of you.

For what it's worth, as I said on Day 3, my suspicions were a bit quelled after I couldn't figure out a counter argument to much of what Kawl was saying.

Flame seems pretty confident that for whatever reason Kawl wouldn't have died tho.

 

[flatearthpandas]

There just isn't a logical explanation for why I would openly volunteer that I am hated if I'm scum.

Sure there is. You're trying to use it right now to convince us not to lynch you for the rest of the game. That would be a cozy spot for scum. Risky, but not an impossible play.

And I put Gorlak's visitor in the thread yesterday. Was hoping you of all people would have picked up on it.

 

[Kawl_USC]

Sure there is. You're trying to use it right now to convince us not to lynch you for the rest of the game. That would be a cozy spot for scum. Risky, but not an impossible play.

And I put Gorlak's visitor in the thread yesterday. Was hoping you of all people would have picked up on it.

Be so kind as to quote that post then.

 

[Sophia]

Also for the love of God can someone, any one else weigh in on this issue.

I'm undecided right now.

If you are truly a Hated tho, lynching you right away seems like a logical move at first glance. We can confirm it and gain information based upon voting patterns and arguments made against you.

There's a few things that are bothering me tho:

• What was the point of that back and fourth between Gorlak and FEP?
• If Flame is so suspicious of you, why didn't he chime in earlier or assist me with the arguments I made?
• Why did FEP wait so close to day end to roleclaim? He roleclaimed with fucking 20 minutes on the clock, and barely gave anyone time to discuss it.
• What did Flame mean by this?

 

[flatearthpandas]

Causing the tie was a push to lynch Zipped. I didn't have much time but when there was a three way tie, I read over Flame, Zipped, and Sophia's posts and decided Zipped was most suitable for a lynch. With him confirmed scum, not sure what you think my scum play was there.

If Sophia was scum, why would I try and save her by bussing another scum? If she's town, why would I try and save her by bussing a teammate?

Now, I feel really good about crimson after last night. Either an opportunistic as hell bus or he's town. Think town is more likely.

I spent a lot of time looking at Gorlak last night but didn't come up with much. Kind of weird exchange with kawl. I feel okay about Gorlak as well despite him almost actually tying us up.

Sophia, I'm not sure about now that we know squid was town. I already mentioned I found zipped's comments odd when he voted her. She was happy to eat a lynch, rather than have a tie, urging the town to look closely at me in the context of her flip, which I found weird. If she was scum that would look pretty bad for me, rushing to "save" her (not really) but in the context of the actual flip (my target, a scum) i don't think i look that bad. I do think that if she was town, a tie should have been preferable to a ml if she was on the block. I think she knew she wouldn't be lynched. Otherwise, why so eager to allow an ml? If she also knew zipped would eat it, i would tend to think she was town. At any rate, think it's time for Sophia to fess up.

I feel pretty good about Stanley, sitting on scum both nights, even if not with great explanation.

Kawl I'm iffy on but i found most of his posts yesterday as being useful. His votes look... eh.

Star dropped out. Was nervous and inactive before. Seen nerves cause her to fumble her own role descriptions even as town, but I could see this time being scum. Want to hear plenty from gryvan today.

Royal still super inactive. Content and votes seem okay.

Going to read up on Flame again today. He seems to slip through the cracks for me, but votes aren't screaming scum.



I think it's unlikely all three scum were on droplet, but very possible two were. Here's my scenario: zipped is on her. Scum buddy kawl puts a vote on zipped to spread things out and set up the tie allowing the vote to stay in the realms of zipped, droplet, or squid, two of whom were town. Royal breaks toward droplet and scum buddy star seals the deal.

Question is was there a scum on the squid vote? Flame spoke in squid's defense and followed his vote onto droplet. Squid thought there several. His vote had droplet, crimson, gorlak, and very briefly kawl (safe to say he wasn't in this suspicion). I would be inclined to think it would be gorlak before crimson. Could have been none.

Why did FEP wait so close to day end to roleclaim? He roleclaimed with fucking 20 minutes on the clock, and barely gave anyone time to discuss it.

This is partly why. I thought there was a chance I'd found scum RB and was worried no one would figure out who it was unless I specified that I posted it (which I did, saying people would need to dig through in case I got nk'd).

Also, gryvan came on strong and you were having doubts yourself so I thought maybe the vote could swing last minute if Gorlak could give me some confirmation. Also, it just takes a long time to post. I didn't mean for it to be quite so late.

 

[Sophia]

Gonna re-read over the end of day real fast, seeing as we're still waiting on more from Stanley, Royal, and Flame.

 

[Kawl_USC]

So with that in mind FEP, were you just posturing earlier?

 

[Kawl_USC]

Also I assume if a banana was given out that it was given to one of the three who haven't checked in? Royal? Did you get a visit from our favorite giver of oddly shaped fruit

 

[Flame_AC]

What if Kawl is a scum hated and then there's some sort of bonus for scum if he gets lynched, like there was with the virgin.

 

[Sophia]

What if Kawl is a scum hated and then there's some sort of bonus for scum if he gets lynched, like there was with the virgin.

Wouldn't Kawl be arguing for his lynch then...? Or are you suggesting he's taking a counter-stance intentionally against his benefit? Why would he take a counter-stance instead of just agreeing with the person who is in favor of lynching him? Either way, this suggestion of yours throws unknown variables into it.

And again, may I ask why you were so certain Gorlak and Kawl wouldn't be lynched during the night? And why at the end of the day you told people not to be careful what they say, and don't reveal too much? At the end of Day 3, you seemed like you had a gut read on Kawl, but your posts today make it seem like you have information...

 

[Flame_AC]

Wouldn't Kawl be arguing for his lynch then...? Or are you suggesting he's taking a counter-stance intentionally against his benefit? Why would he take a counter-stance instead of just agreeing with the person who is in favor of lynching him? Either way, this suggestion of yours throws unknown variables into it.

And again, may I ask why you were so certain Gorlak and Kawl wouldn't be lynched during the night? And why at the end of the day you told people not to be careful what they say, and don't reveal too much? At the end of Day 3, you seemed like you had a gut read on Kawl, but your posts today make it seem like you have information...

We don't know what happens when he dies, he very well could be the opposite virgin and then we lose the next day. At this point in the game, he could know the numbers and be trying to appear pro-town, yet it'll actually ruin us.

I just had a really strong feeling on it. I knew that if I was scum, then they wouldn't kill me as I still have suspicion, Kawl has been read as a potential neutral or scum for a lot of the game. Gorlak has been low key and no one is certain as to his alignment, he also has the movements hanging over his head. Smart scum targets would be people who are viewed as town, CrimsonFist fits this. I also didn't think you would die Sophia. I was expecting CF, RF, Stanley, maybe FEP.

 

[Sophia]

We don't know what happens when he dies, he very well could be the opposite virgin and then we lose the next day. At this point in the game, he could know the numbers and be trying to appear pro-town, yet it'll actually ruin us.

I just had a really strong feeling on it. I knew that if I was scum, then they wouldn't kill me as I still have suspicion, Kawl has been read as a potential neutral or scum for a lot of the game. Gorlak has been low key and no one is certain as to his alignment, he also has the movements hanging over his head. Smart scum targets would be people who are viewed as town, CrimsonFist fits this. I also didn't think you would die Sophia. I was expecting CF, RF, Stanley, maybe FEP.

What you are effectively saying is with that suggestion is that we need to find the other scum today/tomorrow and lynch them first then? Because, hypothetically, if Kawl is scum, and his other scum member will gain a benefit from Kawl being lynched, then they're going for the win. They wouldn't sacrifice one of their members like that otherwise... : \

 

[flatearthpandas]

So with that in mind FEP, were you just posturing earlier?

I suppose you could say that, depending on when you mean.

What if Kawl is a scum hated and then there's some sort of bonus for scum if he gets lynched, like there was with the virgin.

Seems like that would be kind of broken to punish town for lynching scum. I doubt that's the case.

 

[Kawl_USC]

I suppose you could say that, depending on when you mean.


Seems like that would be kind of broken to punish town for lynching scum. I doubt that's the case.

Given your decision to not reveal the information you had from N2 at the end of D3, what has changed? Because given your current position, it feels like something has changed.

 

[Flame_AC]

What you are effectively saying is with that suggestion is that we need to find the other scum today/tomorrow and lynch them first then? Because, hypothetically, if Kawl is scum, and his other scum member will gain a benefit from Kawl being lynched, then they're going for the win. They wouldn't sacrifice one of their members like that otherwise... : \

I do think it'd be best to find the other person first, from the list of people not likely to be killed. Also, they might sacrifice one of their own if all the remaining player had to do was make it one day, that wouldn't be that bad.

I suppose you could say that, depending on when you mean.


Seems like that would be kind of broken to punish town for lynching scum. I doubt that's the case.

Scum got punished for killing a town player, could certainly work in reverse.

 

[flatearthpandas]

Anyway, for me, I think I'd still rather have Kawl's role confirmed with a lynch today and then mass claim and no lynch tomorrow.

With a claim and reads list from kawl first, of course.

I'm not convinced he isn't scum roleblocker but I'm also not convinced he isn't town. His play at the end of day one always struck me as town. But it is a gamble to lynch anyone else unless we're certain he's town and I'm not certain.

 

[flatearthpandas]

Given your decision to not reveal the information you had from N2 at the end of D3, what has changed? Because given your current position, it feels like something has changed.

Not much has changed. I always prefer to err on the side of caution when possible.

Scum got punished for killing a town player, could certainly work in reverse.

It does work in reverse. We would have been in a lot of trouble if we lynched crimson.

 

[Kawl_USC]

Anyway, for me, I think I'd still rather have Kawl's role confirmed with a lynch today and then mass claim and no lynch tomorrow.

With a claim and reads list from kawl first, of course.

I'm not convinced he isn't scum roleblocker but I'm also not convinced he isn't town. His play at the end of day one always struck me as town. But it is a gamble to lynch anyone else unless we're certain he's town and I'm not certain.

Then lynch me after a no lynch. Once you lynch me (or go for a no lynch), you are committed to the other day being a no lynch (or lynching me). So if you are dead set on lynching me, I don't see any benefit in making it the first day over the second. You say reads can improve based on my flip, but I'll be flipping sooner or later before the second round of night actions is submitted. everyone should make actions based on assuming I'm town, and if on the second lynch I flip scum, who gives a shit, you just earned town another shot so you can reevaluate during the 24 hours.

Either I'm lying scum or truthful town. If you are going to lynch me, in what scenario does it help town to lynch me this day versus tomorrow. Hypothetically, lets assume I'm the scum role block, the only other role scum has (big assumption, sue me) is the kill. That's not happening tonight. so I don't give a shit about you watching the night kill. Then it has to happen that you pick the target I'm going to role block. Actually not bad odds for that to happen given our claim situation. of the 6/7 unconfirmed roles lets say both happen to pick the same one, well damn you found out i'm scum. You turn around and lynch me tomorrow. The only way this works out as a positive for town to lynch me today versus tomorrow is if in this hypothetical situation the person we both end up choosing is a investigative PR. The smarter move is for role block to shutdown the lone confirmed town PR (that would be you FEP my man). In that case, it's shutting you down from getting info, but that's better than preventing another investigative role from doing its job while only giving you the person you were going to lynch any ways, correct?

I believe I went off on a bit of tangent, I blame the alcohol and having to defuse a tense situation between my friend bartender and his on again off again on again off again not girlfriend, but seriously FEP, if you can make a strong case for why lynching me today versus tomorrow gives you guys any more useful information to go off of, that you can't just get by assuming I'm town and then adjusting if I flip scum given the extra day you just earned, I won't go quietly into this good night.

 

[flatearthpandas]

Either way, you can't be alive another night scum are able to kill even if we decide to trust you as full town and lynch two other targets. Is there a reason for you not to claim before we decide when/if to lynch you?

 

[Flame_AC]

Either way, you can't be alive another night scum are able to kill even if we decide to trust you as full town and lynch two other targets. Is there a reason for you not to claim before we decide when/if to lynch you?

Didn't he already claim?

 

[flatearthpandas]

Didn't he already claim?

Name

 

[Sophia]

I'm about to go to bed, but a math question before I do as math isn't my strong point.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but lets say we take Kawl's suggestion, and use these two days to scum hunt instead of a no-lynch. If we hit one scum, that puts us at 3/1 on Day 6 correct?

5/2 right now. Four votes to majority. Three on Kawl.
5/1 or 4/2 on Day 5. Four votes to majority. Three on Kawl.
3/1 on Day 6. Three votes to majority. Two on Kawl.

That would mean, of the four players remaining, the sole remaining scum cannot hammer Kawl unless someone prematurely votes. On the flipside, we'd be screwed if we hit two town in a row?

 

[Sophia]

Oh, shit, I see where I went wrong. I forgot about the night kill on between Day 5 and Day 6. Nevermind.

 

[Sophia]

Wait... no I didn't.... gah, math is confusing. I'll let you all answer it.

 

[flatearthpandas]

I'm about to go to bed, but a math question before I do as math isn't my strong point.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but lets say we take Kawl's suggestion, and use these two days to scum hunt instead of a no-lynch. If we hit one scum, that puts us at 3/1 on Day 6 correct?

5/2 right now. Four votes to majority. Three on Kawl.
5/1 or 4/2 on Day 5. Four votes to majority. Three on Kawl.
3/1 on Day 6. Three votes to majority. Two on Kawl.

That would mean, of the four players remaining, the sole remaining scum cannot hammer Kawl unless someone prematurely votes. On the flipside, we'd be screwed if we hit two town in a row?

At 3/1 we are in lylo if kawl is still with us. We need to hit scum that day or we lose, where otherwise we could nl and finish the game at a 2/1 day.

 

[Gorlak]

The mass claim idea doesn't sound too bad. What is the benefit of claiming tomorrow instead of today? Having less information to discuss about today? Giving scum another day to think of fake claims? I don't see a benefit. My opening post today had a different view, but I didn't think through the implications of crimson's role.

We effectively have two lynches now. 7 players, probably 5 town and 2 scum.
D4: 4 town - 2 scum
D5: 3 town - 2 scum
N5: nk, game over.

If there is one person I would lean town on it's Kawl. I understand the thought of lynching him to be on the safe side, but at the same time it looks like an easy lynch to focuse on for today.

Lynching him today, with him being town would lead to
4 town - 2 scum

If we do this we must decide to no lynch, to up our probability of hitting scum D6. There is no other way unless we can say 100% who is scum.

Thinking about it, if we don't lynch Kawl, but mislynch we would end up in the same situation but with the drawback of his claimed role losing us the game.

D4 mislynch - 4-2
D5 no lynch - 4-2
N5 Kill 3-2
D6 Kawl gets voted out by scum and we lose the game.

Basically we need to decide now if we want to try our luck with the next two lynches* Or if we want to eliminate the doubt on Kawl, no lynch and put everything in the hand of the last 5 people if Kawl is town.

*damn you probability...

Chances of hitting scum:

Scenario a)
Lynch today (28.6%) + [Mislynch today + Lynch tomorrow] (23.8%) = 52.4%

Scenario b)
Lynch Kawl + No Lynch leads to a 2 out of 5 chance D6 (if Kawl is town) = 40%

The numbers tell me that option a) is superior... but maybe I'm wrong? (math isn't my strongest quality, especially probability) Please tell me if that is the case, because I'm basing my decision on this!

---
If I made no mistakes I prefer to try our two lynches. I'll go ahead and make a read list soon. I'll also claim as well, because I don't the benefit of holding back anymore if we decide to use our lynches now.

 

[Gorlak]

Yes, my scenarios depend on wether Kawl is scum or not and up to this point I would say he is town.

 

[Gorlak]

If we decide to lynch Kawl today a mass claim isn't necessary today, that's what you said fep, right? Makes sense. Depending on wether he is scum or not we could even avoid telling more tomorrow and let scum in the dark for the possible last night before the final day.

 

[Gorlak]

Thoughts on why FEP is still with us despite being our first claimed PR?

Fear of a doc? And Scum has chosen weird kills all game. Also as fep himself said, maybe they want to throw shade at him? Of course he could simply be scum and use this as a defense.

Gorlak early posting with the target's role. Interesting...

Do you want to add anything? You really think this coincidence is worth noting and diverting attention to?

No vote from Royal yesterday?

I second this, what's up with that Royal?

Anyone get anything last night?

Nope.

But given how close the margin of error is I will say that I have the Hated role.

Hm, seems convenient to have both roles in the game, but the hated does not balance out the virgin in this case here. Crimson's role had a huge negative effect, so a very swingy role depending on his type of death. . You think it's beneficial to clarify wether or not you are a similar case?

Just to be clear, everyone is aware who I was suspicious of last night, yes?

Nope. But I didn't understand any of your arguments or the late behaviour yesterday as well. You openly admit you wanted to swing the vote yesterday shortly before deadline. But I didn't deliver you the reason you wanted? We basically wasted yesterday yelling at each other. I tend to tunnel, this much I know. But I can't see a reason why you would wait with your announcement this late. Either you choose to openly discuss the topic at length yesterday or open today with it, but what was on your mind the last minutes yesterday?

---
I now read the full discussion. You were already at the point of wether lynch Kawl today or tomorrow. Am I too trusting of Kawl at this point?
Will come back later with a reads list, which everyone should make today as well. No reason to hide your opinion until tomorrow.

Sophia your focus on Flame and the Kawl vote is noted, I'll look into this as well

 

[flatearthpandas]

If we decide to lynch Kawl today a mass claim isn't necessary today, that's what you said fep, right? Makes sense. Depending on wether he is scum or not we could even avoid telling more tomorrow and let scum in the dark for the possible last night before the final day.

Yeah, basically.

With your math above, does factoring in the final day I'm assumption we do hit the first scum change anything. I feel like we have better chance of hitting one scum, but keep in mind that we still have another to find in both scenarios and lynching kawl makes that last day better.

Can't even begin to try the math now but I'll try later if no one pitches in.

 

[Kawl_USC]

Gorlak I can confirm that there is no ill effect if I am lynched.

And I believe your math seems right but I'll double check it.

And FEP that's not really how checking probability works friend. You can't assume you hit that first scum but let me crunch numbers.