Every single quote in the OP is legit. Even the Ted Cruz one that sounds like I made it up. I only use the realest of quotes.
The electoral college is misleading because it's winner-take-all. 332-206 in 2012 looks like a landslide right? Well, you flip Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado and Romney wins 275-263. Here's what Obama got in those 4 states:
50.01%
50.67%
51.16%
51.49%
We're talking about a 2-3% flip in 4 states and the Republicans win. Again that's with an incumbent president and arguably the best campaigner of our lifetime. With a slightly lower turnout due to Hillary's "inevitability" it's pretty easy for a GOP white house.
You act like flipping that kind of percentagge in every swing state is ridiculously easy. It's not impossible and would certainly be easier with a pretty moderate republican but this is also the party with trump at the forefront.
You act like flipping that kind of percentagge in every swing state is ridiculously easy. It's not impossible and would certainly be easier with a pretty moderate republican but this is also the party with trump at the forefront.
I'm not very familiar with Ben Carson, Cruz however represents my home state in the senate and unfortunately know what he's all about. He has also compared himself to Galileo, nothing he says will surprise me.
He's the only one of them that wants to do something about climate change.Its funny.. I think Lindsey Graham is my most liked choice.
I hate his views on foreign policy, but he seems relatively moderate otherwise.
I also cannot take Marco Rubio seriously. I think he pretends to know a lot more about foreign policy than he actually does. I'd love to see him get schooled by Hillary.
You act like flipping that kind of percentagge in every swing state is ridiculously easy. It's not impossible and would certainly be easier with a pretty moderate republican but this is also the party with trump at the forefront.
It sounds like they are chanting "waste of time" in that song. Which seemed quite appropriate.The music theme makes this thread B-Dubs. Thank you!
Is Lindsay Graham The Southern Belle?
It's not as hard as you think. Just look at the shifts from 08-12:
After a party has been in power for a while, it tends to shift to the other party, at least in the modern, polarized political climate. The country shifted right after 2 terms of Clinton, then left after 2 years of Bush, and now right again after 2 terms of Obama. We're already seeing it happening after 2014.
Here's another interesting statistic for you. Here are the states Obama won with less than 53% of the votes:
New Mexico
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Nevada
Iowa
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Virginia
Ohio
Florida
Here are the states Romney won with less than 53% of the votes:
North Carolina
The GOP has a very solid block of states while the Democrats barely won off a string of swing states.
It's not as hard as you think. Just look at the shifts from 08-12:
After a party has been in power for a while, it tends to shift to the other party, at least in the modern, polarized political climate. The country shifted right after 2 terms of Clinton, then left after 2 years of Bush, and now right again after 2 terms of Obama. We're already seeing it happening with 2014.
Here's another interesting statistic for you. Here are the states Obama won with less than 53% of the votes:
New Mexico
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Nevada
Iowa
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Virginia
Ohio
Florida
Here are the states Romney won with less than 53% of the votes:
North Carolina
The GOP has a very solid block of states while the Democrats barely won off a string of swing states.
Ben Carson really said that?
You're confusing shift and turnout. Almost 3 million less people voted for a Dem or GOP in 2012.
Romney got nearly the same total votes as McCain, especially when you adjust for voter population growth over 4 years while Obama lost 4 million votes that didn't go onto Romney's column at all.
If anything, 2012 might be the baseline. 2008 was unique in that there was both an economic collapse and a miserable war dogging the GOP AND a first time minority President happening so a bunch of people who normally wouldn't vote did.
Looking at percentages isn't good enough. You also have to compare it to raw totals. Romney essentially equaled McCain 4 years later in raw totals. That signifies no shift in 2012 right at all.
Furthermore, The Dems have won the popular vote in 5 of the last 6 elections. That's a long time. And has they won the electoral in 2000 along with the popular they did win, 2004 probably looks different.
What we're likely seeing if a permanent shift left overall while parts of the country shift right.
You realize Obama won New Mexico by TEN percentage points right?
Just saying he won with less than 53% is saying absolutely nothing.
First of all, Romney had 1 million votes more than McCain. Second of all, you're assuming, for some reason, that only Democrats had a lower turnout. There was a lower turnout overall in 2012; both parties lost votes. The fact that Romney gained in overall vote shows a large shift to the right. 2014 further cements this.
Saying the Democrats won 4 of the last 6 elections is like saying Bill had no chance in 1992 because the GOP had won 5 of the last 6 elections at that point. Look at a larger picture of history shows many periods of one party dominating for a while then a shift to the other.
It shows that the Democrats only has a slight majority in New Mexico. A lot of votes went to Gary Johnson who is a Libertarian, an ideology that's typically more associated with the GOP.
Gary Johnson was effectively kicked out of the GOP for being a true libertarian and not a fake one like the Paul's. True libertarianism is hardly something that the modern day GOP associates itself with.
And even giving Romney every single Gary Johnson vote still leaves Obama with a 60k vote cushion. That is not something easy to make up in most cases.
Your arguments are the same ones that have the GOP chasing Pennsylvania and Minnesota every year only to fail and lose.
And... subscribed. Tomorrow I'm done with classes, gonna order a pizza, kick back and watch me some primo, grade-A entertainment.
BTW, what happened to "Some, I assume, are good people" as a title? If Trump flames out, it's never gonna get its shot in the sun!
It's not as hard as you think. Just look at the shifts from 08-12:
After a party has been in power for a while, it tends to shift to the other party, at least in the modern, polarized political climate. The country shifted right after 2 terms of Clinton, then left after 2 years of Bush, and now right again after 2 terms of Obama. We're already seeing it happening with 2014.
Here's another interesting statistic for you. Here are the states Obama won with less than 53% of the votes:
New Mexico
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Nevada
Iowa
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Virginia
Ohio
Florida
Here are the states Romney won with less than 53% of the votes:
North Carolina
The GOP has a very solid block of states while the Democrats barely won off a string of swing states.
lol New Mexico still being a swing state. And when was the last time Penn swung Red?
First of all, Romney had 1 million votes more than McCain. Second of all, you're assuming, for some reason, that only Democrats had a lower turnout. There was a lower turnout overall in 2012; both parties lost votes. The fact that Romney gained in overall vote shows a large shift to the right. 2014 further cements this.
Saying the Democrats won 4 of the last 6 elections is like saying Bill had no chance in 1992 because the GOP had won 5 of the last 6 elections at that point. Look at a larger picture of history shows many periods of one party dominating for a while then a shift to the other.
Subscribed and ready. Also getting a pizza for tomorrow.
lol New Mexico still being a swing state. And when was the last time Penn swung Red?
So, forgive me for my ignorance on this matter but, stupid question time. I don't have cable. I've got an antenna that picks up the over the air channels. Via this antenna, I get my local Fox affiliate. Will they be broadcasting the debate, or will I only be able to watch it on Fox News proper?
No. Romney had the same vote total once you account for population growth in the 4 years. Romney made no inroads in votes.
Romney basically matched McCain's total in 2008 adjusted for population growth.
Obama lost votes. His turnout was down. The people who didn't vote were people who usually don't vote but did in 2008 because of special circumstances to that election.
(It should also be noted Obama lost a LOT of votes in NY and NJ because of Hurricaine Sandy which depressed turnout greatly).
Go look at the picture you posted. Most of the shift to the right come in very Red states where people who wanted to vote for the first black President or mad about the economic collapse stayed home like usual. All the blue state shifts are really tiny and mostly attributed to lower turnout for Obama's guys, not people switching votes.
2014 is a horrible example. 9 million less people showed up in 2014 compared to 2010. The GOP dominated 2010 MORE than 2012, so where is this shift, exactly? A higher percentage of 2014 voters voted for Dems than in 2010, not less.
You don't understand what "shift" means in electoral politics at all.
Anyway, back on topic, bold prediction time: Trump will do better than expected and his polls will go up after the first debate. Other candidates will try to attack him and look silly. Jeb Bush will do worse than expected and lose support.
Don't forget 4 years of demographic changes heading away from the current GOP voting coalition.
Hey, it's not just me. 270towin also think so. You've got a Republican governor, and being a border state I think Trump will appeal to certain voting blocks in that state. It's not as liberal as you think.
Last time Penn swung red was in 1988, but so what? Virginia voted Red for 40 years before going blue in 2008. Penn went from a 10.3% Obama margin in 2008 to 5.4% in 2012. 13 House Republicans compared to 5 House Democrats. It's definitely vulnerable in 2016.
It's not as hard as you think. Just look at the shifts from 08-12:
Here's another interesting statistic for you. Here are the states Obama won with less than 53% of the votes:
New Mexico
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Nevada
Iowa
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Virginia
Ohio
Florida
Here are the states Romney won with less than 53% of the votes:
North Carolina
The GOP has a very solid block of states while the Democrats barely won off a string of swing states.
No hopefully online
Yup, it's why voter ID is now a thing after such a long time despite virtually no evidence that fraud takes place (well, the kind of fraud the GOP wants to find).
- Silent Generation/ Baby boomers will be dying off over the next 4-5 presidential elections. Those are votes the GOP absolutely can't lose. They're already at a marked disadvantage in the Presidential elections even with these votes.
- White vote percentage will continue to decrease overall.
- Younger millennial population will be coming of voting age over the next 2 presidential elections including this one. Millennials will already be the single largest group in the country before 2016 and they generally trend democrat.
These should be HUGE red flags to the Republicans and their supporters. It will NOT be easy for them to stay the course they're on and expect to win the Presidency now or in the future. And once the rest of the country figures out that they can't govern for shit and that the public actually loves the ACA and want to go further with it, I'd expect the midterms to shift to the left's advantage, but we're probably a decade away from that or more. Gotta wait for more old people to die.
I mean, yeah, it's all about matchups. We could get a particularly shitty Dem nominee (Hilary might be disappointing, but not shitty), but relative to the politics of the majority of the nation, I would argue that every current GOP politician is shitty. Hence, lesser of 2 evils rears its head.
Let's not forget his recent exploits, like cooking bacon on a rifle barrel!
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/04/ted-cruz-sizzles-up-machine-gun-bacon.html
Let's not forget his recent exploits, like cooking bacon on a rifle barrel!
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/04/ted-cruz-sizzles-up-machine-gun-bacon.html