titiklabingapat
Member
I said this last week, but these are all noise until the debates. The debates are about the only thing left that can change the dynamics of this race. It has been incredibly stable otherwise.
Untrue.
538 had him leading their forecast from July 30th-31st.
Really hoping the first debate is just full of time stamps and direct quotes. We need to hold everybody accountable for their claims at this point. The truth will shake this shit out.
If they treat this election like a "normal" presidential debate I can see Trump getting a huge boost.
My predicted map for election night aligns pretty closely with 538's current projection. Only difference is NH.
Trump's base of support probably bottoms out at 42% and frankly I don't see him doing much better than that in the general when all is said and done.What are you talking about?
This man could throw a tantrum, claim bias and unfairness from the moderators and walk out and his supporters would love him even more for it.
I don't think his supporters will be enough.
So why is the gap tightening every time I look at fivethirtyeight?
I said this last week, but these are all noise until the debates. The debates are about the only thing left that can change the dynamics of this race. It has been incredibly stable otherwise.
Let me ask you a question.
What the hell is Trump going to do to improve your life if he were to win?
Improve the economy how? I've mostly heard him talking about bad trade deals and currency manipulation.He'll repeal the ACA, protect 2nd amendment rights, and possibly improve the economy, assuming that markets don't automatically tank simply in reaction to him being elected.
He'll repeal the ACA, protect 2nd amendment rights, and possibly improve the economy, assuming that markets don't automatically tank simply in reaction to him being elected.
He'll repeal the ACA, protect 2nd amendment rights, and possibly improve the economy, assuming that markets don't automatically tank simply in reaction to him being elected.
He'll repeal the ACA, protect 2nd amendment rights, and possibly improve the economy, assuming that markets don't automatically tank simply in reaction to him being elected.
He'll repeal the ACA, protect 2nd amendment rights, and possibly improve the economy, assuming that markets don't automatically tank simply in reaction to him being elected.
That's a pretty large assumption.He'll repeal the ACA, protect 2nd amendment rights, and possibly improve the economy, assuming that markets don't automatically tank simply in reaction to him being elected.
He'll repeal the ACA, protect 2nd amendment rights, and possibly improve the economy, assuming that markets don't automatically tank simply in reaction to him being elected.
This falsely assumes they treat polls equally.because fivethirtyeight has the "let's include everything" approach in a year where almost everything is shit
aggregate of aggregates still has literally everyone else above 65% Clinton and the biggest substantive difference between them is only 538's including shit like those weird Ipsos polls where Vermont goes for Trump
Yeah, 538 is quoted a lot here, but it worth mentioning that they have been a pretty big outliner to actual percentage of a Trump win more or less since the general election starter. I don't say that to discredit 538, but I mean, it's kind of hard to ignore that they've consistently given Trump a higher chance than basically everyone else since generals officially started.
will trump be able to keep these lunatics long enough to get 2020 candidates to grovel before him for his endorsement? imagine kasich having to kiss his ass.If Trump wins the debates it galvanizes his base.
If Trump loses the debates it galvanizes his base.
Soundbites from the debates and interviews regarding the debates will serve as free advertising from now until election day.
Hmm, ok... wasn't fivethirtyeight 100% accurate for the last election? I thought their track record spoke for itself. They're suddenly not reliable anymore?
Even he has no faith in his boy.How the hell is repealing the ACA going to improve your life?
Edit: I also love how you say possibly...LMAO
He'll repeal the ACA, protect 2nd amendment rights, and possibly improve the economy, assuming that markets don't automatically tank simply in reaction to him being elected.
So fuck over a bunch of poor people, do nothing because the 2nd amendment isn't threaten?He'll repeal the ACA, protect 2nd amendment rights, and possibly improve the economy, assuming that markets don't automatically tank simply in reaction to him being elected.
They were probably an outliers when they called each state the way they did in 2012. The constant outlier bashing of 538 reeks of twisted rationalization in an attempt to reassure. Just like when people here attacked the first poll from a couple of weeks ago showing Trump pulling in very close. What you guys are doing is just a more informed version of over reacting.
So fuck over a bunch of poor people, do nothing because the 2nd amendment isn't threaten?
I'd really like to know what Hillary could realistically do to the 2nd amendment to make responsible gun owners concerned in the first place.
I'd really like to know what Hillary could realistically even do to the 2nd amendment to make responsible gun owners concerned in the first place.
I mean Obama been trying to take guns for the last 8 years, what is the ace she got Obama doesn;t?
He has a situation where the debates can only help him.
Anyone who would be scared away by his gaffes are already long gone. (Is there anything he could say at this point to drive away people who aren't already gone?)
The worst thing the media could probably do to him is embrace him.
Nice to have a polling thread that doesn't read like the world is ending. If the debates go well (and they should) I can't see her falling back again.
SCOTUS was one justice away from nullifying the 2nd amendment in 2008. If Hill gets to replace Scalia, all its going to take is California passing a total ban (something that is coming down the pipe regardless within the next 5 years) and a subsequent lawsuit and boom, for all practical purposes the 2nd amendment is gone.
Thanks to the fact that people hate both candidates, there's probably going to be a lot of hard swings in both directions up to election day.
Trump seems to have a ceiling that is basically tied with Clinton, but if the swings are timed perfectly for him, he'd be going into election day with a chance to win. On the other hand, if the swings don't line up perfectly for him, he has no chance at all.
SCOTUS was one justice away from nullifying the 2nd amendment in 2008. If Hill gets to replace Scalia, all its going to take is California passing a total ban (something that is coming down the pipe regardless within the next 5 years) and a subsequent lawsuit that is sure to follow and boom, for all practical purposes the 2nd amendment is gone.
SCOTUS was one justice away from nullifying the 2nd amendment in 2008. If Hill gets to replace Scalia, all its going to take is California passing a total ban (something that is coming down the pipe regardless within the next 5 years) and a subsequent lawsuit that is sure to follow and boom, for all practical purposes the 2nd amendment is gone.
SCOTUS was one justice away from nullifying the 2nd amendment in 2008. If Hill gets to replace Scalia, all its going to take is California passing a total ban (something that is coming down the pipe regardless within the next 5 years) and a subsequent lawsuit that is sure to follow and boom, for all practical purposes the 2nd amendment is gone.
You have no idea what you're talking about...
Indeed. Alucard, your priorities are something. You're supporting a white supremacist and homophobe (Pence) on the ticket at the end of the day. Having read your posts elsewhere, I feel pity for you honestly.another trump supporter shows they only give a fuck about their goddamned toys over the actual needs of the people.
fuck the second amendment. fuck trump supporters. fuck republicans. fuck trump
if hillary doesn't win the future of my country for the vast majority of my living life is fucked.