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January 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes February 9th

Welfare

Member
Feb 24, 2014
14,512
0
430
Call of Duty: Black Ops III (Xbox One, PS4, 360, PS3, PC)
Grand Theft Auto V (PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3, PC)
NBA 2K16 (PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3)
Star Wars: Battlefront (Xbox One, PS4, PC)
Fallout 4 (PS4, Xbox One, PC)
Minecraft (360, Xbox One, PS4, PS3)
Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six: Siege (Xbox One, PS4, PC)
Madden NFL 16 (PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3)
Lego Marvel Avengers (PS4, Xbox One, 360, Wii U, PS3, 3DS, Vita)
FIFA 16 (PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3)
 

slavesnyder

Member
Nov 18, 2013
4,304
0
355
Call of Duty: Black Ops III (Xbox One, PS4, 360, PS3, PC)
Grand Theft Auto V (PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3, PC)
NBA 2K16 (PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3)
Star Wars: Battlefront (Xbox One, PS4, PC)
Fallout 4 (PS4, Xbox One, PC)
Minecraft (360, Xbox One, PS4, PS3)
Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six: Siege (Xbox One, PS4, PC)
Madden NFL 16 (PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3)
Lego Marvel Avengers (PS4, Xbox One, 360, Wii U, PS3, 3DS, Vita)
FIFA 16 (PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3)
GTA 5 second?
This is madness. No need for RDR3. Ever.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
0
865
29
theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
I was expecting Lego to be higher.
Not surprised to see Lego performing better on PS4 and One, it was the same on Amazon. Wondering how sales will look in the next months: Lego Jurassic Park saw big changes in the SKU between first and second month.
 

Chobel

Member
Mar 26, 2013
15,673
3
515
Call of Duty: Black Ops III (Xbox One, PS4, 360, PS3, PC)
Grand Theft Auto V (PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3, PC)
NBA 2K16 (PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3)
Star Wars: Battlefront (Xbox One, PS4, PC)
Fallout 4 (PS4, Xbox One, PC)
Minecraft (360, Xbox One, PS4, PS3)
Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six: Siege (Xbox One, PS4, PC)
Madden NFL 16 (PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3)
Lego Marvel Avengers (PS4, Xbox One, 360, Wii U, PS3, 3DS, Vita)
FIFA 16 (PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3)
Damn! MS got the FPS audience on lock.
 

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
1
0
NeoGAF Prediction Results - January 2016

Units

1. Twinsanity - 37,000
2. Tubie - 45,000
2. biglittleps - 45,000
4. EventHorizon - 47,000
5. Stanng243 - 48,000
6. Elandyll - 50,000
6. pitseleh - 50,000
8. Raylan - 52,000
9. Fat4all - 55,000
10. slavesnyder - 56,000
11. Raist - 58,000
12. FullMetaltech - 59,000
12. Hydrargyrus - 59,000
12. Toli08 - 59,000
15. 1st Course - 60,000
15. ConfusedGamer - 60,000
15. Maniel - 60,000
15. gtj1092 - 60,000
19. Javin98 - 62,000
19. freefornow - 62,000
21. KillerMan91 - 63,000
22. jbluzb - 64,256
23. 5Twist - 65,000
23. Elios83 - 65,000
23. Fdkn - 65,000
23. Jamix012 - 65,000
23. Loris146 - 65,000
23. andy_lhc - 65,000
23. anexanhume - 65,000
30. GAF_Agg - 66,900
31. GifGafIsTheBestGaf - 67,000
31. Tarrin - 67,000
33. travisbickle - 68,000
33. wachie - 68,000
35. Rymuth - 69,000
36. Cornbread78 - 70,000
36. Darth Smurf X - 70,000
36. DieH@rd - 70,000
36. Nouzka - 70,000
36. daniel77733 - 70,000
36. orfax - 70,000
36. theprodigy - 70,000
43. Tratorn - 70,852
44. noobie - 72,000
45. Opt1kon_ - 73,000
45. allan-bh - 73,000
47. AmaterasuOni - 74,000
47. Krakn3Dfx - 74,000
47. robo - 74,000
50. BlackBuzzard - 75,000
50. Crimson_Gold - 75,000
50. Megadragon15 - 75,000
50. RED_RING - 75,000
50. Rand6 - 75,000
50. Sterok - 75,000
50. madp0k - 75,000
57. ZachzOOming - 76,000
57. archnemesis - 76,000
57. jayu26 - 76,000
60. ascii42 - 77,000
61. Danthrax - 78,000
62. astrogamer - 79,000
63. GribbleGrunger - 80,000
63. Hammer24 - 80,000
63. OleGunner - 80,000
63. Shizza - 80,000
67. Final Verdict - 82,000
67. skedar897 - 82,000
69. Bruno MB - 83,000
69. TheCarrotKiller - 83,000
71. mejin - 84,000
72. Kill3r7 - 85,000
72. The Last One - 85,000
72. harrisk954 - 85,000
72. jjonez18 - 85,000
76. Tsosie - 86,000
76. ferrasvansen - 86,000
78. RexNovis - 87,000
79. Kayant - 89,000
79. Xumbrega - 89,000
81. Bgamer90 - 90,000
81. Conduit - 90,000
81. Primethius - 90,000
81. Welfare - 90,000
81. anothertech - 90,000
81. prag16 - 90,000
87. Chobel - 91,000
87. Trust me, I'm a PhD - 91,000
89. donny2112 - 92,000
89. panda-zebra - 92,000
91. Ombala - 94,000
92. Apt101 - 95,000
92. Bioshocker - 95,000
94. Jigorath - 97,000
95. Cow Goes Moo - 100,000
95. DriftingSpirit - 100,000
95. Pillville - 100,000
95. Possumowner - 100,000
99. jroc74 - 105,000
100. Asd202 - 110,000
101. madstarr12 - 114,000
102. Pachter - 115,000
103. Vena - 120,000
104. foxbeldin - 129,000
105. Jack The Nipper - 142,000
106. ghost4soul - 160,000
107. CorporateClown - 242,000
108. Prototype Viktor - 284,300


Points
Code:
     January 2016                    Overall 2016 Top (1/1)
01.  biglittleps            117.54   biglittleps              117.54
02.  Tubie                  116.09   Tubie                    116.09
03.  Twinsanity             112.42   Twinsanity               112.42
04.  EventHorizon           110.83   EventHorizon             110.83
05.  Raylan                 105.92   Raylan                   105.92
06.  Stanng243              104.94   Stanng243                104.94
07.  Elandyll               104.59   Elandyll                 104.59
08.  pitseleh               102.75   pitseleh                 102.75
09.  slavesnyder            102.21   slavesnyder              102.21
10.  1st Course             100.52   1st Course               100.52
11.  Fat4all                100.49   Fat4all                  100.49
12.  Jamix012               100.17   Jamix012                 100.17
13.  ConfusedGamer           99.92   ConfusedGamer             99.92
14.  FullMetaltech           99.22   FullMetaltech             99.22
15.  Maniel                  99.07   Maniel                    99.07
16.  Raist                   98.78   Raist                     98.78
17.  freefornow              98.50   freefornow                98.50
18.  travisbickle            98.36   travisbickle              98.36
19.  Toli08                  98.22   Toli08                    98.22
20.  jbluzb                  98.00   jbluzb                    98.00
21.  theprodigy              97.96   theprodigy                97.96
22.  Javin98                 97.95   Javin98                   97.95
23.  Tratorn                 97.85   Tratorn                   97.85
24.  Megadragon15            97.81   Rymuth                    97.81
25.  Rymuth                  97.81   Megadragon15              97.81
26.  DieH@rd                 97.61   DieH@rd                   97.61
27.  Darth Smurf X           97.42   Darth Smurf X             97.42
28.  wachie                  97.39   wachie                    97.39
29.  ZachzOOming             97.20   ZachzOOming               97.20
30.  panda-zebra             97.10   panda-zebra               97.10
31.  gtj1092                 97.03   gtj1092                   97.03
32.  andy_lhc                96.88   andy_lhc                  96.88
33.  Loris146                96.71   Loris146                  96.71
34.  allan-bh                96.68   allan-bh                  96.68
35.  Fdkn                    96.55   Fdkn                      96.55
36.  noobie                  96.54   noobie                    96.54
37.  Hammer24                96.53   Hammer24                  96.53
38.  Tarrin                  96.45   Tarrin                    96.45
39.  Nouzka                  96.32   Nouzka                    96.32
40.  astrogamer              96.31   astrogamer                96.31
41.  KillerMan91             96.24   KillerMan91               96.24
42.  ascii42                 96.21   ascii42                   96.21
43.  anexanhume              95.93   anexanhume                95.93
44.  orfax                   95.76   orfax                     95.76
45.  archnemesis             95.62   Kayant                    95.62
46.  Kayant                  95.62   archnemesis               95.62
47.  skedar897               95.37   skedar897                 95.37
48.  BlackBuzzard            95.24   BlackBuzzard              95.24
49.  GifGafIsTheBestGaf      94.94   GifGafIsTheBestGaf        94.94
50.  Hydrargyrus             94.83   Hydrargyrus               94.83
Congratulations, Twinsanity by Units and biglittleps by Points! :D

I'm going to spot check some results, but feel free to double-check your own results, since the calculation was modified this month. Points per system (3 of them) were 33.333 (just 3 decimal points used). Thanks!

Edit:
For reference, here's the Top 10 Units Bonus for your calculations, too. Checked Twinsanity and biglittleps, and both looked good to me.
1. 17
2. 13
3. 11
4. 9
5. 7
6. 5
7. 4
8. 3
9. 2
10. 1
 

Welfare

Member
Feb 24, 2014
14,512
0
430
Such a terrible performance to start the year. Too optimistic on the XB1.

Congrats, Twinsanity and biglittleps!
 

slavesnyder

Member
Nov 18, 2013
4,304
0
355
What's the difference between me and Tomb Raider?
I charted!
Will print it out and hang over my bed.
And congratulations to those that are even bigger experts then I am. You deserve all the praise and your own show on Gametrailers.

Oh, and for donny:
 

Tubie

Member
Nov 12, 2013
9,258
0
405
NeoGAF Prediction Results - January 2016

Units

1. Twinsanity - 37,000
2. Tubie - 45,000
2. biglittleps - 45,000



Points
Code:
     January 2016                    Overall 2016 Top (1/1)
01.  biglittleps            117.54   biglittleps              117.54
02.  Tubie                  116.09   Tubie                    116.09
03.  Twinsanity             112.42   Twinsanity               112.42
[/QUOTE]

Damn, my best month ever!

Off to a good start this year. Grats to biglittleps and Twinsanity.

I thought my PS4 prediction was too high, but it was too low in the end and that's where I was off the most.
 

Elandyll

Banned
Oct 13, 2014
7,121
0
0
Arizona
Must be the first time I'm in the top 10! (I tend to overestimate chronically, as I'm an eternal optimist)...
Won't last, so I'll enjoy it while I can :)

Fakedit: I almost made the top5... #oldmanshakesfistatclouds

Realedit: Thanks Donny!
 

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
1
0
Wait so what values did you use for each system?
Discussion was over in the NPD thread.

1. PS4 - 230K
2. XB1 - 130K
3. 3DS - 70K
4. WIU - 40K

Edit:
Thanks, all! January is always tough trying to get a feel on how systems will do in the year. XB1, Wii U, and 3DS all had pessimistic starts, but PS4 really knocked it out of the park this month. Here's looking forward to a more optimistic February with tax returns rising all ships in the tide!
 

Chobel

Member
Mar 26, 2013
15,673
3
515
*Chobel nowhere to be found in Top 50



-----------------------

Congrats for the winners and as always, thank you Donny for doing this!
 

Tratorn

Member
Sep 2, 2011
2,362
1
0
[3DS] 65,432
[PS4] 188,888
[WIU] 49,494
[XB1] 145,678

PS4 really killed my score, but at least I charted.
 

Javin98

Banned
Nov 30, 2014
6,851
0
0
Ipoh, Malaysia
Hmm, #19 for the month isn't too shabby, but could have been better. Congratulations to the winner and thanks, donny! Looks like I underestimated the PS4 and overestimated the XB1, like many others.
 

Raylan

Banned
Oct 27, 2015
3,393
0
0
NeoGAF Prediction Results - January 2016

Units

8. Raylan - 52,000

Points

Code:
     January 2016                    Overall 2016 Top (1/1)
01.  biglittleps            117.54   biglittleps              117.54
02.  Tubie                  116.09   Tubie                    116.09
03.  Twinsanity             112.42   Twinsanity               112.42
04.  EventHorizon           110.83   EventHorizon             110.83
[B]05.  Raylan                 105.92   Raylan                   105.92[/B]
Not bad. Not bad at all :)