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January 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes February 9th

J

jjonez18

Member
[PS4] 190,000
[XB1] 170,000
[3DS] 65,000
[WIU] 40,000

Consoles are dead.

If you're looking at January 2015 for reference, remember XB1 had its promotional price end at the beginning of NPD tracking and become permanent on the 15th. The crash will still be bad, but it won't be as bad. PS4 also got its first standard bundle late in January. TLOU was bundled with every system for 399$. CoD bundle should be able to keep it relatively strong throughout January.

So I'm expecting PS4/XB1 lower pricepoints to allow them to offset declines YoY. Moreso XB1 because of the reason stated above. 3DS and Wii U begin a year of massive declines.
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
So Donny are WiiU votes still counting towards points and units? Or is it just a courtesy vote at this point?

Nevermind. Found my answer in the op

Note: WIU will only be counted for unit results and cardinal order bonus. It is not included for point results directly.
Click to expand...
 
O

OléGunner

Member
Abdiel said:
Yo!

Division drawing a lot of interest. Bundle, not so much. Fucking seriously, another $399 bundle?

Christ it's like they don't even care.
Click to expand...

The Division will clean up in March.

The beta demo has done its job I think.
$399 bundle is eye watering though.
MS is back on the profit train it seems, not an ideal time for insane discount pricing anyway.

RED_RING said:
Mario and Luigi will sell 10 million in January NPD and will outsell Modern Warfare 3!
Click to expand...

Not Splatoon? That's the only metric I understand ;)
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
[PS4] 185k
[XB1] 137k
[3DS] 69k
[WIU] 43k

Thank you donny2112 for being our host to another season of "I have no clue but I must bet."
Starting with a really depressing month. No new games, no discounts, only inventories.

And please, always keep in mind these words:
A buyer's bonus structure trumps EVERYTHING ELSE.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
donny2112 said:
Pokemon and Fire Emblem Fates LE systems both release next NPD month, so that should have an impact. 3DS will still be way down YOY due to the n3DSXL launching last February, though.
Click to expand...

Meh, i hope so but i doubt, 3DS is just too old, i don't see games which can boost it's ssles ( maybe outside a main Pokèmon ).
The only thing which could have an impact is a pticedrop.


CorporateClown said:
[3DS] 75k
[PS4] 195k
[WIU] 166k
[XB1] 54k
Click to expand...

Maybe 166k was XBO and 54k Wii U? :p
 
S

Sterok

Member
[3DS] 85k
[PS4] 200k
[WIU] 50k
[XB1] 150k

Last year's 3DS sales were flatlined by the upcoming New 3DS, so it'll probably be up a bit this year now that I think about it. PS4 and XB1 should remain steady.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Sterok said:
Last year's 3DS sales were flatlined by the upcoming New 3DS, so it'll probably be up a bit this year now that I think about it. PS4 and XB1 should remain steady.
Click to expand...

huum, not really.

In December 2013 3DS has sold 1,100,000, and then 97,000 in January 2014, which is a -91.18% MOM drop.

In December 2014 3DS has sold 810,000, and 74,000 in January 2014, which is a 90.13% MOM drop.

Even with the New 3DS in February, the MOM drop in December 2014 - January 2015 was smaller than the year before that.

3DS has sold 580,000 in December 2015, which mean you expect a 85.34% MOM drop, which is way smaller than the others years...
 
A

Abdiel

Member
DriftingSpirit said:
Consoles are ded again confirmed.

And yeah, I don't know how that Division bundle is going to move much at all.

Thanks!
Click to expand...

No problem. The bundle is not going to do jack shit.


RexNovis said:
Well they said revenue for XB1 was down YoY in Q3 during their investor call. That is despite selling substantially more units this year. So that tells me that they arent making much if any profit on their lowest priced SKUs which would explain their insistence on creating higher margin bundles.
Click to expand...

Rex, I want to put some things in perspective here. This is just to help put some stuff out there for everyone too, just to indulge some curiosity for some folks too.

You can go to the Best Buy website, and click on the list of Xbox One bundles, and the list is frankly, insane. It's so fucking long. But what is insane about it, is how many of those bundles are still actually available.

The XBox One Holiday Bundle is available all but 3 of the stores within 400 miles of my home store.

The Tomb Raider Bundle is available at every single one of those same stores. No store is out.

The Halo Bundle is available at every one of those stores as well.

These are all readily available, but they're now releasing yet another bundle, and I don't think they really anticipate it doing anything. I almost want to tell my managers to say to take as minimal stock as possible because we're still carrying all of these, and most of those bundles don't move at all. They're too expensive and they present no real value to most of our customers at this point.

Conduit said:
Oh, you're alive! You survived. :D
Click to expand...

I'm a surviva' I'm gonna make it~

ThoughtsOfSpeaking said:
Any word on Street fighter?
Click to expand...

Decent numbers. Fighting game fans coming out of the wood work more with each beta/news update. I think it'll be the gradual burn that gives it legs.

Trust me said:
Appreciated^^ Is it all BO3 bundles now, or are some Star Wars and Uncharted ones still in stock?
Click to expand...

The Star Wars and Uncharted bundles are basically nonexistent.
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
Abdiel said:
Rex, I want to put some things in perspective here. This is just to help put some stuff out there for everyone too, just to indulge some curiosity for some folks too.

You can go to the Best Buy website, and click on the list of Xbox One bundles, and the list is frankly, insane. It's so fucking long. But what is insane about it, is how many of those bundles are still actually available.

The XBox One Holiday Bundle is available all but 3 of the stores within 400 miles of my home store.

The Tomb Raider Bundle is available at every single one of those same stores. No store is out.

The Halo Bundle is available at every one of those stores as well.

These are all readily available, but they're now releasing yet another bundle, and I don't think they really anticipate it doing anything. I almost want to tell my managers to say to take as minimal stock as possible because we're still carrying all of these, and most of those bundles don't move at all. They're too expensive and they present no real value to most of our customers at this point.
Click to expand...

I did not realize the back stock was that bad... Surprised retailers are still ordering new bundles at all in that case. How bad is it? Are we looking at the potential for buybacks?

Regardless my comment was more in response to the pricing aspect. Its obvious they are really eager to reinflate the purchase cost of the console. That combined with the statements they made regarding revenue being down despite higher unit sales would indicate that the $350 price point and below is not giving them a margin they are comfortable with. Until they are able to reduce manufacturing costs (perhaps a slim SKU) I expect to see more of the higher priced bundles being pushed out to market. It will be interesting to see if retailers will continue to stock these new bundles given what you have said though. We might see a lot more retailer exclusive style bundles or even MS store exclusive bundles.

edit: Holy shit you weren't kidding there are 12 separate XB1 skus on the Best Buy site. That's insane!
 
P

Prototype Viktor

Member
MS got stacks of bundles, ya'll already know that
Halo that, RoTR this, just got a Division chick
(Throw some Bundle's on that truck!)
Just got a Quantum Break chick
(Throw some Bundle's on that truck!)
Something feel different
Cute little yarn chick, lining up a preorder
Just got a marking dollars, spent that on some new tits
(Throw some Bundle's on that truck!)
Ain't that a true sells trick?
(Throw some Bundle's on that truck!)
Let me show you how to do this shit

Microsoft ft Kanye West - Throw some Bundle's (remix)
 
K

Kysen

Member
Why do they over ship every holiday? Someone at MS seems to think that any moment now a huge wave of 360 owners are suddenly going to upgrade. I don't think they realize those Kinect band wagoners are long gone.
 
N

Nightengale

Member
Kysen said:
Why do they over ship every holiday? Someone at MS seems to think that any moment now a huge wave of 360 owners are suddenly going to upgrade. I don't think they realize those Kinect band wagoners are long gone.
Click to expand...

Holiday is probably the only time of the year that sales people on both sides of the court are the most irrational.
 
T

ThoughtsOfSpeaking

Banned
Kysen said:
Why do they over ship every holiday? Someone at MS seems to think that any moment now a huge wave of 360 owners are suddenly going to upgrade. I don't think they realize those Kinect band wagoners are long gone.
Click to expand...

The COD sales numbers for 360 should illustrate that the active base has mostly moved on.

Kinect band wagoners dont care.
 
O

Ombala

Member
Abdiel said:
No problem. The bundle is not going to do jack shit.




Rex, I want to put some things in perspective here. This is just to help put some stuff out there for everyone too, just to indulge some curiosity for some folks too.

You can go to the Best Buy website, and click on the list of Xbox One bundles, and the list is frankly, insane. It's so fucking long. But what is insane about it, is how many of those bundles are still actually available.

The XBox One Holiday Bundle is available all but 3 of the stores within 400 miles of my home store.

The Tomb Raider Bundle is available at every single one of those same stores. No store is out.

The Halo Bundle is available at every one of those stores as well.

These are all readily available, but they're now releasing yet another bundle, and I don't think they really anticipate it doing anything. I almost want to tell my managers to say to take as minimal stock as possible because we're still carrying all of these, and most of those bundles don't move at all. They're too expensive and they present no real value to most of our customers at this point.



I'm a surviva' I'm gonna make it~



Decent numbers. Fighting game fans coming out of the wood work more with each beta/news update. I think it'll be the gradual burn that gives it legs.



The Star Wars and Uncharted bundles are basically nonexistent.
Click to expand...
Abdiel are your store forced to take a certain amount of a bundle if you want it or can you choose yourself the exact amount you take in?
 
S

serversurfer

Member
RexNovis said:
I did not realize the back stock was that bad... Surprised retailers are still ordering new bundles at all in that case. How bad is it? Are we looking at the potential for buybacks?

Regardless my comment was more in response to the pricing aspect. Its obvious they are really eager to reinflate the purchase cost of the console. That combined with the statements they made regarding revenue being down despite higher unit sales would indicate that the $350 price point and below is not giving them a margin they are comfortable with. Until they are able to reduce manufacturing costs (perhaps a slim SKU) I expect to see more of the higher priced bundles being pushed out to market. It will be interesting to see if retailers will continue to stock these new bundles given what you have said though. We might see a lot more retailer exclusive style bundles or even MS store exclusive bundles.

edit: Holy shit you weren't kidding there are 12 separate XB1 skus on the Best Buy site. That's insane!
Click to expand...
Having multiple SKUs helps them at retail in a lot of ways. First, it helps them maintain shelf space. If PS4 is selling at twice the speed, it would normally get twice the shelf space, but with a dozen Bone SKUs, it probably gets double shelf space instead.

Also, it helps increase shipments overall, as the various SKUs will help make retail feel obligated to order some minimum number of each, lest they come up short on the one that turns out to be popular. Similarly, the new bundle in January ensures more shipments because even though Best Buy are still sitting on tons of holiday stock, they don't have this one, so they'll need to order some.

Also, I imagine the higher-priced SKU's help to keep hardware in the black overall for the quarter. They continue to sell the hardware to maintain good will, but I doubt they're prepared to take any significant losses to that end. The "overpriced" bundles probably allow for the existence of the "reasonably" priced ones. The higher end bundles may even have some margin for retail, to help encourage them to stock up.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
What the hell, I didn't get the update from the Archive thread! AHHHHHH

[PS4] 214K
[XB1] 179K
[3DS] 60k
[WIU] 55k
 
K

KillerMan91

Member
RexNovis said:
Kinda baffled by these really high 3DS estimates I'm seeing here.


Some people expect 3DS to break 100k units sold in January? Last year they sold less than 80k units and the trend YoY has been one of substantial declines. I'm just not seeing how that would be feasible. What do you all know that I don't?

I do think both XB1 and PS4 will be up just a little bit from last year. Especially since XB1 didnt have a temporary price increase for the first part of the month.



Nah nothing that I'm aware of. Should be a pretty straightforward month.
Click to expand...

Last January was only one month away from New3DS launch in US so it could make sense that people were waiting for it and for that reason last January was extra weak for 3DS. Over 100k is pretty optimistic prediction I agree but I could see it hitting at least last years numbers.

Edit. It seems I am late as usual with my post lol.
 
A

Abdiel

Member
Welfare said:
And then I forgot to subscribe to the thread!

Busy morning lol


I was wondering where the thread was. I thought donny was just super late, but it was I that was late.
Click to expand...

I was speculating on how it was odd you had no comment on my retail musings. Heh. Welcome to the thread sir.
 
A

allan-bh

Member
Kysen said:
Why do they over ship every holiday? Someone at MS seems to think that any moment now a huge wave of 360 owners are suddenly going to upgrade. I don't think they realize those Kinect band wagoners are long gone.
Click to expand...

Stores are ordering these consoles so is not just a Microsoft thing.
 
T

Thebeardofknowledge

Banned
Prototype Viktor said:
MS got stacks of bundles, ya'll already know that
Halo that, RoTR this, just got a Division chick
(Throw some Bundle's on that truck!)
Just got a Quantum Break chick
(Throw some Bundle's on that truck!)
Something feel different
Cute little yarn chick, lining up a preorder
Just got a marking dollars, spent that on some new tits
(Throw some Bundle's on that truck!)
Ain't that a true sells trick?
(Throw some Bundle's on that truck!)
Let me show you how to do this shit

Microsoft ft Kanye West - Throw some Bundle's (remix)
Click to expand...

I feel like I lost IQ points reading this
 
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