Primethius
Banned
I just wanted to use this. Especially after trying to decipher that sentence.
It was 1.2m at one point IIRC.
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June 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes July 14th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
It was 1.2m at one point IIRC.
I'm really late for this reply, but
I know, but beating the competitor when one of its biggest exclusives ever releases is pretty damn good PR. Not that I think it is over for Sony if they lost October or anything. Besides, if it were really announced at PGW, the holidays would get a really good boost.
Yeah, but Microsoft reduced the gap between the PS4 and XB1 to less than half last holiday season. I don't think Sony wants that to happen again. I hope they learnt their lesson and will be far more aggressive in pricing and bundling this time. Also, I agree that announcing a price drop in September will guarantee Sony amazing sales for the fall.
Being console market leader worldwide is already good PR. Get over it, there's no lesson to be learnt here.
True, but are you suggesting that Sony should just stick to the strategy they had for last year's holidays?
If PS4 is 299 then the gap would be very smaller and they might even win depending on the bundles they do.
They wouldn't be able to stick with last years strategy even if they wanted to because by that time they'll have almost already spent 2 years on the current price point that's probably or already reached saturation with consumers. They need to start cutting not to beat Microsoft but to improve their own sales, especially if they're aiming to ship more than they did last fiscal year.
John Bender
Banned
Well, my guss is it will look like this:
PS4 price-cut + Call of Duty Bundle -> Especially for the FPS fans
PS4 price-cut + MGS5 Bundle
PS4 price-cut + Star Wars Battlefront Bundle
PS4 price-cut + Family Bundle (Black Friday) ala Tearaway + "Something Lego"
PS4 price-cut + Assassins Creed Bundle
And maybe a Uncharted bundle, too.
Sony will market the hell out of these games/bundles.
They would probably win the NPD for nov and dec if they have several 299 bundles that you listed.
Agreed. Like I said, whether Sony wins the holiday season really depends on their bundling and pricing.
Yeah, pretty much this. I'm sorry if my posts made it seem like I was saying Sony must drop the price to beat Microsoft, but that was not what I meant.
I honestly think they were caught off guard last year because they didn't think MS would be so extreme with prices and bundles.
To be fair, no one was expecting those insane deals. In fact, most people would probably call you crazy if you told them the XB1 would go from $499 to $329 in a year.
lol yeah that's true. I wonder how low they will go this time.
They removed Kinect, so was not that insane.
NeloAnjelo
Member
I don't believe Sony will drop the price this holiday. Not when worldwide sales are so strong. The PS4 is outselling the XB1 3:1 and in some places higher in Europe. This is maintained during the holiday season.
If MS closes the gap over the holidays, and wins NPD for these months, what is stopping the gap from expanding again next year when Sony does drop the price? Seems a small victory in the overall business scope of things. Why bring your 1st party games up against COD, MGS, Star Wars, etc, when you can have deals with these games and release your exclusives spaced out over the year, and still expand the Gap over time?
Winning NPD gives bragging rights and yes the US market is key. However, when you almost have a 2:1 lead worldwide and everything is looking like this being maintained, why would NPD over the holidays be a "win"? For MS it will be yes. And yes if Sony wants to put pressure on MS it can lower the price. Given the overall state of the company though I think profitability is key. A price cut when you have the most market share worldwide, and maintaining this over the next few years just doesn't make business sense.
Personally i would love a price cut and more games over XMAS.
If MS closes the gap over the holidays, and wins NPD for these months, what is stopping the gap from expanding again next year when Sony does drop the price? Seems a small victory in the overall business scope of things. Why bring your 1st party games up against COD, MGS, Star Wars, etc, when you can have deals with these games and release your exclusives spaced out over the year, and still expand the Gap over time?
Winning NPD gives bragging rights and yes the US market is key. However, when you almost have a 2:1 lead worldwide and everything is looking like this being maintained, why would NPD over the holidays be a "win"? For MS it will be yes. And yes if Sony wants to put pressure on MS it can lower the price. Given the overall state of the company though I think profitability is key. A price cut when you have the most market share worldwide, and maintaining this over the next few years just doesn't make business sense.
Personally i would love a price cut and more games over XMAS.
A good list. I think they should have more than one "Black Friday" bundle, similar to last year. The one without the family games should be marketed much more, however. I also believe special consoles will exist for a few of these games, perhaps for larger ones.
My edit:
Limited Edition PS4 + Call of Duty: BOIII - $349
Limited Edition White PS4 + Star Wars: Battlefront - $349
Limited Edition White PS4 + Destiny: The Taken King - $349
Standard PS4 + Assassin's Creed Syndicate + The Uncharted Collection (BF Bundle #1) - $299
Standard PS4 + Tearaway Unfolded & LEGO Marvel's Avengers (BF Bundle #2) - $299
Standard PS4 + The Uncharted Collection (Post BF Perma-Bundle) $299
1 TB PS4 + God of War III: Remastered (Post BF Perma-Bundle) $349
This is leaning towards what I'd like to happen instead of what would actually happen, but it seems plausible enough. The first BF Bundle is somewhat difficult to choose since I have to pick a game with mass appeal. Not sure what else I could use that Sony had a marketing deal for. Didn't think GOWIII:R would be big enough.
Grimgrillz
Banned
I can't be the only one who thinks a $100 price cut is unnecessary for PS4 to move units. I think dropping the price from $399 to $349 would be enough especially if they continue with these limited edition bundles with the bonus content.
Sony has exclusive dlc for
Mad Max
Just cause
NFS
AC victory
BOPS3
Battlefront
Imagine the bolded titles each with an exclusive limited edition bundle for $349. They'd take holiday irrespective of what MS does. But admittedly, that theory is predicated on whether or not Sony manages to sell a significant number of consoles in June despite the insane bundles MS gave away to counter the arkham bundle.
I say insane because from memory MS gave away: AC Unity + MCC + free game of your choice + $50 + 3 months online.
So in my humble opinion if PS4 manages to take the month by a significant margin and also sell more Arkham knight discs then we here at gaf might need to readjust this $100 price cut. Especially if Sony theorize that they can achieve what they want with sales and the subsequent PR this holiday at $349
Sony has exclusive dlc for
Mad Max
Just cause
NFS
AC victory
BOPS3
Battlefront
Imagine the bolded titles each with an exclusive limited edition bundle for $349. They'd take holiday irrespective of what MS does. But admittedly, that theory is predicated on whether or not Sony manages to sell a significant number of consoles in June despite the insane bundles MS gave away to counter the arkham bundle.
I say insane because from memory MS gave away: AC Unity + MCC + free game of your choice + $50 + 3 months online.
So in my humble opinion if PS4 manages to take the month by a significant margin and also sell more Arkham knight discs then we here at gaf might need to readjust this $100 price cut. Especially if Sony theorize that they can achieve what they want with sales and the subsequent PR this holiday at $349
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
Oh, I agree that they will continue to sell even without a price cut, but as costs go down it only makes sense to try and broaden your audience to as many people as possible. My personal feeling is 50USD drop in September and 100USD drop for just Black Friday that becomes permanent some time next summer.
DustyVonEric
Member
The lowest point of entry to get a XB1 went from $500 to below $350 with multiple free games and even gift cards in some cases. That was pretty insane to witness. MS killed it last holiday season.
They removed Kinect. So? It's a different sku. So?
The gate for buyers to get a XB1 now opens at a significantly lower price. Just one year later with free games and other incentives thrown in.
I'm hoping things get even more insane this holiday with MS and Sony. I'd think that if PS4 drops price (even by $50 or so to match XB1), MS would be ready to move lower to get the price advantage again. Even if MS has the exclusives edge, I'm not sure they want to chance price parity with the ps4 heading into the holidays.
Now Sony dropping to $299 might be our best chance of having a straight up battle and seeing how things shake out. I don't know if MS, with the exclusives in their holiday line up, would be willing to drop below $299 to undercut PS4 at that point. But if anyone would or could do it, it's MS.
The possibilities for this holiday are nuts
Nah, I'm with you. A $50 drop would be enough to give PS4 a significant sales boost, I think. Heck, it might not even need a price cut if Sony goes silly with the bundles.
But I think a PS4 drop to $349, prompts MS to go as low as $299. And from a recent post from Abdiel, that $50 saved makes a difference with some people, and was enough to sway some originally prospective PS4 buyers to purchase a XB1 instead.
I think the only way for Sony to "checkmate" MS is to just drop to $299. Though MS could drop lower, I'm not so sure that they would try to undercut PS4 at $299. And Sony won't have to worry about a $50 advantage chasing buyers to their competitor.
That all depends on Sony's goal though. Whether Sony wants to "win" or if they just want to continue working their own schedule to make money.
Wait, what exclusive DLC do they have for NFS? I haven't heard any deal about this.
Grimgrillz
Banned
No official announcement has been made but it's pretty obvious.
How is it obvious? Sorry I don't really pay attention to NFS so I may have missed it and it wasn't in Sony's conference either. Does every NFS trailer have PS intro or something?
All those for $299? I doubt it. I'm seeing something more like:
$299 500GB PS4 standalone
$329 1TB PS4 standalone
$349 1TB Batman AK PS4 bundle
$349 1TB MGSV PS4 bundle
$399 1TB Star Wars Battlefront + Bloodborne/The Order/Driveclub PS4 bundle
The Kinectless SKU was not insane. The $329 AC Unity bundle, on the other hand, was pure insanity.
Obliterator
Member
Only thing I predict is a big month in total hardware sales for June. Given the great trade in deals, Batman bundles, free games, etc. both systems should have a great month
DiiGoliath
Banned
A Halo 5: Guardians Themed Xbox One Bundle would win it:
- Halo Bundle: $449 - Halo 5 Guardians + Themed 1TB Xbox One + Themed Controller, maybe they could add Halo TMCC to the bundle.
- TR bundle: $399 - Rise of the Tomb Raider + 1TB Xbox One
- Then we already have the Forza 6 Limited Edition 1TB Bundle, $399.
- We already have a Gears Bundle and the HMCC Bundle out there too, $349
- Some 3d party bundles.
And I wouldn't expect a price cut for the PS4.
- Halo Bundle: $449 - Halo 5 Guardians + Themed 1TB Xbox One + Themed Controller, maybe they could add Halo TMCC to the bundle.
- TR bundle: $399 - Rise of the Tomb Raider + 1TB Xbox One
- Then we already have the Forza 6 Limited Edition 1TB Bundle, $399.
- We already have a Gears Bundle and the HMCC Bundle out there too, $349
- Some 3d party bundles.
And I wouldn't expect a price cut for the PS4.
SnowFlakeCake
Member
IMO: PS4 1TB + Battlefront + Black Ops III + Assassins Creed + FIFA 16 + diet Pepsi bottle = $39.99 would win NPD this year.
The Last One
Member
That's cheaper than a game! Easy win =p
There will certainly be a noticable boost for June compared to May. But i'm remaining cautious about just how big that boost will be.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
I used to think you were a complete troll, but you're alright in my eyes now.
They're not going to have the main holiday bundle be that expensive.
There's gonna be a
-TR bundle 500gb for $299
- Halo 5 bundle 500gb 299
- Halo 5 1 TB custom console for 399
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Sony wants to improve on sales, not just beat Xbox.
This is only way the bundles you mentioned would win.
Grimgrillz
Banned
The trailer Intro has the PS4 splash screen and all footage debuts on Sony media outlets such as their youtube and blogs first. MS then reups hours later adding the XB logo. Devs also dropped a few hints on twitter and in interviews.
Also that EU audience where racing games tend to do well and sony owns "frequently" 90% of that console market. Again it's just speculation but I doubt anyone in their right mind would bet against it given the signs and hints we've had so far. It's all leaning towards PS4 marketing.
DiiGoliath
Banned
This is only way the bundles you mentioned would win.
Well, Microsoft wouldn't have it very difficult. I can see a 299$ Xbox One easily, but that won't happen with the PS4.
I think you all are too optimistic here. The Halo bundle I mentioned before won't be $399 and there won't be a $299 PS4. Get real and deal with it.
MS and Sony are not ONGs. If this year they reach $299, what is supposed to happen in 2016? $199 price cut? Come on, you know that won't happen.
Why not on a Sony price drop? Historically, haven't their first price drops been $100?
DiiGoliath
Banned
They've just dropped the 500GB basic PS4 to $349.
Not happening. Not this year and not bundled with games.
Maybe they drop the 500GB basic PS4 price again, to $299, but that's all.
Bundles will be $339 <
The PS4 is still $399. Unless you're talking about retail deals.
Goodacre0081
Member
Sony has been coasting off the horrible XB1 reveal for the last two years now. I think it's time for them to take a look at their competition and act accordingly because MS hasn't provided them with an empty net this time. XB1 is looking better and better with it's proactive updates, capable network, and the willingness to actually provide feedback in response to user requests.
There hasn't been a price drop yet though.
DiiGoliath
Banned
Oh, my mistake, it's a retail deal. Well then, they may cut the price to $349 on holidays, but I don't think a $299 price cut is happening.
Obviously, there's a chance, and if it happens well... Microsoft will have to drop their prices even more.
All PS consoles had $100 as their first price drop.
A $50 price cut would be a waste since it just doesn't have that psychological impact, not only that but it would also lower the impact of the next $50.
$100 would be the sweet spot to increase momentum. That is what it's about at this point, increasing momentum and selling as many consoles as they can to increase the user base.
It isn't about fighting the competition, those asses have been kicked a long time ago and pose no threat.
Goodacre0081
Member
pretty much. when you have retailers doing $50 price cuts all year long then an official version wouldn't be a big deal at all. it needs to be a headline grabber.
Lol They haven't dropped anything. Retailer deals != manufacturer's suggested price. Sony has already stated in their projections for this fiscal year that they intend to sell more PS4s, but make less money. That most certainly is a price cut. A $50 cut would help Sony out, but a cut to $299 with the usual holiday deals would sew up NA for Sony pretty quickly.
I'm not sure if you realize this, but this has nothing to do with last year's holiday season at all...
Darth Smurf X
Member
If we are talking fall NPDs already, what do you guys think will happen with this?
http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2015/07...l-be-up-there-with-gta-wall-street-bank-says/
http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2015/07...l-be-up-there-with-gta-wall-street-bank-says/
That would be an impressive result. It will be interesting how they move consoles.
joecanada
Member
depends on manufacturing costs. There's a huge difference between making money on every console, breaking even, and losing money on every console. Losing money on every console equals less money the more you manufacture, the opposite of "selling well".
I have no doubt they will pull a price cut but I'm kind of doubting the 299 claims....
Jimmyfenix
Member
I think the biggest loser this holiday will be Rainbow Six Siege. I just don't see it selling 7 million with other shooters right next to it.
DiiGoliath
Banned
Also, it will be interesting to see what impact have the Halo TV show (holiday 2015) and the Quantum Break TV series (January 2016). If they turn out to be good, it could have an impact on sales.
It's been a long time since PS4 had been in the first place on Amazon ( at least on hourly chart ) :
http://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-video-games/zgbs/videogames/ref=zg_bs_nav_0
http://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-video-games/zgbs/videogames/ref=zg_bs_nav_0
It must be that 99 cents off that is doing it lol.
The Batman bundle has been a steady mover on Amazon since release rarely leaving the top 10.