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[Mmmkay]

PS3 will sell more players by next March than all HD-DVD player sales combined. I'm almost sure of this.

For what it's worth, HD-DVD backers are also almost sure of this too.

Today's CED:

Engineers familiar with blue-diode processing told us they’re not surprised by the low yields. “Technically yes, there's a problem for Sony and anyone trying to fab this chip,” said another HD DVD partisan. “But what retailers and the general public need to understand is the planned quantities for the PS3 are orders of magnitude larger than those for the BD players, or even HD DVD,” that executive said.

 

[Zaptruder]

There is no doubt that, via PS3, there will be more BR players sold than HD-DVD players.

The question is, will they actually be buying movies for it?

By the end of next year, there's a very high probability, that BD players on the market (including PS3s) will be a magnitude greater than HD-DVDs...

10 million vs 1 million.

Even if only 10% of PS3 owners use their PS3s as a BD, it's already beating the HD-DVD marketshare.

I think for the X360, about 30-50% of owners also own a HDTV. I'd imagine that figure will be even higher for the PS3, given that more people have picked up HDTVs since, and that the cost of the PS3 alludes to customers been more affluent; more likely to own a HDTV.

Not all HDTV owners but a good portion of them will be intrested in HD movies.

Maybe not necessarily in replacing their libraries; but if HD discs don't have an excessive premium over DVDs ($5-$10?), I'd imagine there'd be plenty wanting to experience their favoured movies in a better format, especially when they already have everything necessary to do so.

As the years go on, HD movies will become more common place, prices will fall, PS3 sales will continue to increase... and probably most importantly, HDTV growth will also increase.

BD won't take over the marketplace at the drop of a hat; but by the end of the PS3 lifecycle, it'll have cemented itself as THE format of choice for video media.

 

[cheekymunky]

other players are being delayed all over the place

I wonder if this has anything to do with the BR laser diode debacle?

 

[LOCK]

Well no shit, Kutaragi, you're to blame

QFT

 

[cheekymunky]

They invented it.

:lol :lol :lol

 

[Zaptruder]

Earmarked for future Playstation 5 vs Xbox1080 discussion.

"200GB is required to get the most out of games these days."

Given the increasing length of console cycles, it's likely that the PS5 will be out around 2020...

I'd expect nothing less than full online distribution by then.

 

[sugarhigh4242]

Let's say Blu-ray get's killed off as a movie format in three years(not likely). You know what, it won't affect the games in the least. The advantages for games will still be there.

it would be more likely PS3 gets killed off than Blu-Ray. If there's going to be HD movies, they are going to be Blu-Ray. The industry support is insurmountable for HD-DVD.

 

[DenogginizerOS]

:lol :lol :lol

What is so funny? Sony did not invent Bluray? Because practically every news story I have read gives them the credit for inventing it. Enlighten me if I am wrong.

 

[cheekymunky]

it would be more likely PS3 gets killed off than Blu-Ray. If there's going to be HD movies, they are going to be Blu-Ray. The industry support is insurmountable for HD-DVD.

That is also my point.


This is not VHS v. Betamax.

 

[sugarhigh4242]

I'd expect nothing less than full online distribution by then.

we're never gonna have the bandwidth for that.

By PS5, 200GB will be incredibly small, a terabyte is more like it.

I just don't see our internet connections improving proportionally with storage capacity.

 

[cheekymunky]

What is so funny? Sony did not invent Bluray? Because practically every news story I have read gives them the credit for inventing it. Enlighten me if I am wrong.

Its funny because you say they invented it but fail (seemingly) to understand that it also has the full support of the majority of companies. You start your assertion that Sony formats fail...which is completely untrue. That is why I said that CD and DVD say hi. You are trying to compare BR with Betamax...which is not possible to do unless you are completely blind.

 

[X26]

How much control does/did Kutaragi really have in regards to what went into the PS3? I mean in the end he can't possibly be the one who has the final say on things like blu-ray, push for 1080p, $599 USD, etc.

 

[DenogginizerOS]

Its funny because you say they invented it but fail (seemingly) to understand that it also has the full support of the majority of companies. You start your assertion that Sony formats fail...which is true.

Well, genius, what is holding back the consortium is the manufacture of a product Sony designed. I don't care if they have the world behind it, it is still not doing well for them right now and seeing that it is their design, they hold the responsibility.

 

[Confusion Illusion]

What is so funny? Sony did not invent Bluray? Because practically every news story I have read gives them the credit for inventing it. Enlighten me if I am wrong.

Sony alone didn't invent blu-ray, however they are apart of the "conglomerate" of companies of did. Together they call themselves!........................ the Blu-ray Disc Association.

 

[Zaptruder]

we're never gonna have the bandwidth for that.

By PS5, 200GB will be incredibly small, a terabyte is more like it.

I just don't see our internet connections improving proportionally with storage capacity.

15 years is a long time. Enough time to lay down the necessary infrastructure...

But you're also assuming that the player has to download the entire game at once, which doesn't necessarily have to be the case.

 

[DenogginizerOS]

it would be more likely PS3 gets killed off than Blu-Ray. If there's going to be HD movies, they are going to be Blu-Ray. The industry support is insurmountable for HD-DVD.

Just a year ago, people were saying PS3's would be crushing X360 in sales by this time this year and that Sony's lead in gaming is insurmountable. NOTHING is settled in the format war right now. Talk about counting your chickens before they hatch.

 

[cheekymunky]

Well, genius, what is holding back the consortium is the manufacture of a product Sony designed. I don't care if they have the world behind it, it is still not doing well for them right now and seeing that it is their design, they hold the responsibility.

So (one genius to another) its not going well for them right now. And this is why the format will fail..which is your assertion. Absurd. And pointless to argue more.

 

[jarrod]

CD and DVD say hi.

Philips and Toshiba say "hi".

 

[Mar]

People who are defending blu ray are idiots.

The simple fact remains. If PS3 went with DVD, XBOX360 would be dead and we'd all, EVERY ****ING ONE OF US, would have a PS3 in our homes right now. CHEAPER, LAUNCHED EARLIER. Oh noez!! Games might come in two discs or three? Holy ****ing shit you have to get out of your chair once every 13 hours?!?!?!!? GAME BREAKING.

Guys, wake up. Blu ray doesn't mean crap besides us all sitting here waiting for our console to be released. Shit, in reality, I'm not even waiting for a PS3. Blue ray has priced it out of my budget.

 

[cheekymunky]

Philips and Toshiba say "hi".

Agreed. But with HUGE support from Sony.

 

[DenogginizerOS]

Agreed. But with HUGE support from Sony.

And you could say the same about Bluray.

 

[Fafalada]

The "average" GPU is helping MGS4 to run. So I'd say your point is wrong.

Well he raises another point that is on the mark though. Console power isn't about what your hardware can do - it's entirely about what marketable spec you put inside it.

Sony engineers understood that with PS1/PS2/PSP, MS&ATI got the right idea with 360 but they are still working their way up.
The irony is - if NVidia didn't come in when it did, we'd right now have a PS3 where fans would quote the specs all googly eyed, and haters would hate it ten fold more because marketting would make 360 look like last gen.
And the games would at best look comparable to what they are now, or worse - but hey, noone would ever call the GPU average, and what else matters?

 

[cheekymunky]

And you could say the same about Bluray.

THANK YOU!! That is my point....that is all.



Anyway, this thread has spiraled off topic (with my help). Was it Kuturagi's decision to put BR in the PS3? I was under the understaning the Stringer wanted to streamline Sony and use the PS3 as the flagship to push Sony movies and pushed it...could be completely wrong on that account though.

 

[PepsimanVsJoe]

People who are defending blu ray are idiots.

The simple fact remains. If PS3 went with DVD, XBOX360 would be dead and we'd all, EVERY ****ING ONE OF US, would have a PS3 in our homes right now. CHEAPER, LAUNCHED EARLIER. Oh noez!! Games might come in two discs or three? Holy ****ing shit you have to get out of your chair once every 13 hours?!?!?!!? GAME BREAKING.

Guys, wake up. Blu ray doesn't mean crap besides us all sitting here waiting for our console to be released. Shit, in reality, I'm not even waiting for a PS3. Blue ray has priced it out of my budget.

I agree 100%. Still getting a PS3 eventually but it still annoys the hell out of me.

 

[Raistlin]

Well, genius, what is holding back the consortium is the manufacture of a product Sony designed. I don't care if they have the world behind it, it is still not doing well for them right now and seeing that it is their design, they hold the responsibility.

Did they design HD-DVD?

Because they use the same type of diode, and are similary ****ed as far as sourcing.

:lol

 

[sugarhigh4242]

Just a year ago, people were saying PS3's would be crushing X360 in sales by this time this year and that Sony's lead in gaming is insurmountable. NOTHING is settled in the format war right now. Talk about counting your chickens before they hatch.

that's really different model. if you're just making a bare "sometimes unexpected things happens, sugarhigh"-kind of argument, then fine. Maybe my face will explode tomorrow. It could happen.

But PS3 vs Xbox360 is essentially about 2 companies. Yeah, 3rd parties make a difference, but its really about Sony and Microsoft going at it.

Blu-Ray vs HD-DVD is like an multi-industry turf war. And the Blu-Ray camp run these streets. HD-DVD has some big, but largely unimportant friends (hello Intel, Microsoft). Blu-Ray has support from a wide variety of major electroncs (samsung, pioneer, phillips, sharp), computers (dell, apple, hp), and movie (Fox, Disney, Warner, ...) companies.

All the major players are behind Blu-Ray. It would take a massive shift to derail this juggernaut.

 

[jarrod]

And you could say the same about Bluray.

Or Betamax. Or Minidisc. Or UMD.

 

[Link648099]

"I see a major risk that Sony's presence in the game market will weaken," he said. "Investors will have to start considering the possibility in the future that the game division will not produce any real profits at all."

Wow. Who says that about their own division?

 

[Deleted member 1235]

You start your assertion that Sony formats fail...which is completely untrue. That is why I said that CD and DVD say hi.

mini disc
memory stick (god willing)
beta
UMD

 

[gofreak]

Wow. Who says that about their own division?

As outspoken as Kutaragi can't be, probably not even him (That was Shinko Securities analyst Hideki Watanabe that said that.)

 

[jarrod]

CD and DVD weren't "Sony formats". They were industry wide developed and adopted, and while Sony had an integral part in each (CD much moreso than DVD though, which actually went in a different direction from the earlier proposed Philips/Sony MMCD), that's still a far cry away from where we stand with blu-ray and HD-DVD. What we have with the current format war is actually much more like pre-DVD (Sony/Philips MMCD versus Toshiba/Warner/Matsushitsa SD disc).

 

[Tieno]

Wow. Who says that about their own division?

*ala Greg Kassavin* WoW indeed

 

[Link648099]

As outspoken as Kutaragi can't be, probably not even him (That was Shinko Securities analyst Hideki Watanabe that said that.)

Ah okay thanks. I kind of just skimmed the mess and read the quotes that were there.

 

[DarienA]

CD and DVD weren't "Sony formats". They were industry wide developed and adopted, and while Sony had an integral part in each (CD much moreso than DVD though, which actually went in a different direction from the earlier proposed Philips/Sony SD disc), that's still a far cry away from where we stand with blu-ray and HD-DVD.

And it's also a far cry from the UMD, Mini Disc and Beta formats as well... those all failed for different reasons... Blu Ray shares little to nothing in common with the failure of those formats except that Sony is involved... now unless you think any Sony involved formats are simply cursed to fail.... however someone listed memory sticks... sorry those aren't going anywhere.

 

[DenogginizerOS]

Are the movie studios who are exclusive to Bluray right now BOUND to Bluray? In other words, could they do both formats?

 

[Ajax]

Just a year ago, people were saying PS3's would be crushing X360 in sales by this time this year and that Sony's lead in gaming is insurmountable. NOTHING is settled in the format war right now. Talk about counting your chickens before they hatch.

Selective memory I see. A year ago xbox fans were claiming that 360 will sell 10-20 million its first year and that it would definately be the leader in USA and very possibly Europe.

 

[plagiarize]

Selective memory I see. A year ago xbox fans were claiming that 360 will sell 10-20 million its first year and that it would definately be the leader in USA and very possibly Europe.

you don't change his point. which was about not counting your chickens before they hatch. people saying the 360 would have sold 10 - 20 million by now were counting their chickens before they hatched too.

you actually helped argue his point.

 

[jarrod]

And it's also a far cry from the UMD, Mini Disc and Beta formats as well... those all failed for different reasons... Blu Ray shares little to nothing in common with the failure of those formats except that Sony is involved...

I'd say they strike a bit closer though, as Sony's pretty clearly the chief driving force behind each (arguably unlike CD/DVD). Sony learned from thgeir past failures well, they've amassed their own "forum" in an effort to reshift the potential industry returns in their favor (particularly compared to where the DVD Forum sits), but it's still pretty easy to see blu-ray as more of a "Sony format" than comparable to DVD or CD.

now unless you think any Sony involved formats are simply cursed to fail.... however someone listed memory sticks... sorry those aren't going anywhere.

Memorysticks also aren't leading the market though. There's nowhere near the adoption for MS that there is for SD or CF and if not for Sony almost single handedly pushing the format forward, it'd have died off years ago.

I also don't think "Sony formats" equal an automatic death knell... but I don't see exactly how blu-ray's really comparable to DVD or CD either.

 

[Mrbob]

I don't want to say if it would have been a better or worse decision, but Kutaragi definitely is not a yes-man.

Another example is that while he was in charge of electronics, when he was on the board, he pushed through with the plan to join up with Samsung on LCD production, to much internal opposition. Now latterly, after he was taken out of that position, that decision has turned out to be a very significant part of the Bravia rebound for their TV business.

Interesting. So Kuturagi is the driving force between two of Sony's most successful products at the moment (Playstation and Bravia).

Blu Ray may have been forced onto Sony Computer Entertainment too. We don't know the whole story. Anyway, it sounds like the rules, regulations, and standards are holding kuturagi back to be honst.

 

[jarrod]

Are the movie studios who are exclusive to Bluray right now BOUND to Bluray? In other words, could they do both formats?

Not besides Sony/MGM. The truth is, most studios will support both platforms until the format war shakes out.

 

[Ghost]

Selective memory I see. A year ago xbox fans were claiming that 360 will sell 10-20 million its first year and that it would definately be the leader in USA and very possibly Europe.

Your people and his people, are different people.

 

[Joeroll]

I might be the only one here. But, does anyone else refuse to use consoles as a movie player? Considering how fragile consoles seem to be these days I want it on as less as possible. So it will only be used for gaming.

Also did a lot of people here use ps2/xbox/360 for watching movies? Just curious.

 

[Ajax]

you don't change his point. which was about not counting your chickens before they hatch. people saying the 360 would have sold 10 - 20 million by now were counting their chickens before they hatched too.

you actually helped argue his point.

No I'm saying there are extremes in both sides. Don't have to listen to them or quote them a year later to proove that "things didn't go as expected".

 

[DenogginizerOS]

Selective memory I see. A year ago xbox fans were claiming that 360 will sell 10-20 million its first year and that it would definately be the leader in USA and very possibly Europe.

That is true, too. But more were in the Sony camp and were very cofident (and still are) that Sony will win the next-gen. Which may very well happen. My point is that things in this industry are not slam-dunks. And when you start saying things are slam-dunks, that is when they turn sour. And saying Blu-ray is a slam dunk is very relevant to this because it is married to PS3. Look, I want clarity on this issue. Nothing more. If Bluray wins, so be it. I hold no allegiance to one company or another. I am just speaking as a consumer who sees this whole war as a mess and I only have the events of the past to use as guidance right now because the two formats still seem to be fumbling in the dark right now.

 

[KeithFranklin]

Cant believe I am defending Sony, but hear goes.

Well the diode problem isnt just Sony. Every manufacturer of the diode is having problems producing them and they arent Blu-Ray specific. This is hurting Blu-Ray and HD-DVD as well. Last week yields were reported at 30%. Thus why I think that PS3 manufacturing isnt just one month behind scheduled like they said they other day. This will certainly hold up the price on the HD-DVD and Blu-Ray drives until the diode really is just a commodity. Other competitors are going to drive up the cost of those diodes as well.

 

[Mar]

I might be the only one here. But, does anyone else refuse to use consoles as a movie player? Considering how fragile consoles seem to be these days I want it on as less as possible. So it will only be used for gaming.

Also did a lot of people here use ps2/xbox/360 for watching movies? Just curious.

Nope. The DVD playback of a gaming console can't match the quality of a dedicated, admittedly expensive, DVD (or otherwise) player.

I attempted to play a DVD on the PS2 for shits and giggles, to compare it with my $2000 dedicated DVD player. It was a joke. A really bad joke. Let's just say I'll never do that again. And never expect a 'cheap' movie player to do anything worthwhile.

 

[plagiarize]

No I'm saying there are extremes in both sides. Don't have to listen to them or quote them a year later to proove that "things didn't go as expected".

that was seperate to what he was saying.

were people stupid to presume the 360 would be a run away hit?
YES!
are people stupid if they presume Blu Ray will be a run away hit?
YES!
both of those previous things are plausible outcomes, but to take them as given is stupid.

 

[Il Comodino]

[...]
Sony pushed back the PS3's European launch because production of a component for the laser in the optical disc drive had fallen behind schedule. It was the second delay this year for Europe. North America and Japan are still set for a November launch.
[...]

this is not true!

the first delay was only for japan.

 

[kaching]

One more point on the relevance of Betamax versus VHS. Those of us that are old enought to remember this and are now in a financial position to buy a BD or HD-DVD player cannot rinse the bad taste that Betamax left out of our heads. Sure, local news stations still use Betamax and it was blah blah blah, but VHS won the war hands down, and Sony's record on releasing a media format that emerges as a market leader is very poor. BD is superior to HD-DVD. But Betamax was superior to VHS. And consumers typically buy cheaper when the difference between the two is indistinguishable in the one area it will be used the most - MOVIES.

I'm old enough to remember Betamax v. VHS and the only reason why it leaves a bad taste in my mouth is that I keep having to watch people bring it up like this last great battle of the analog age really has that much relevance to the digital age.

For all the bitching and moaning that goes on around here about having to deal with multiple, proprietary formats, if you actually look at the reality of current tech. markets you see a number of competing formats supported almost transparently, moreso than VHS v. Beta ever managed. Take a look at a typical DVD player and you'll see it supports several more formats (basic playable CD, DVD, multiple recordable DVD formats, multiple audio/video codecs, etc.) than the two videocassette formats that sparked such a longlasting "bad taste" in people's mouths. Or look at the market for flash media where there's at least a half dozen physical formats to choose from.

Technology available today makes it far easier to absorb and assimilate multiple formats, should the circumstances suggest that such is worthwhile. The end result is a world where anyone who is using various tech devices in their daily lives is dealing with an increasing number of formats with a decreasing number of incompatabilities, on a scale that's beginning to make the VHS v. Betamax dilemma look positively pedestrian.

 

[KeithFranklin]

BD won't take over the marketplace at the drop of a hat; but by the end of the PS3 lifecycle, it'll have cemented itself as THE format of choice for video media.

By the end of the PS3 lifecycle optical media will be on its way out. Part of the reason I couldnt care less about HD-DVD or Blu-Ray is I dont want discs anymore to be the delivery mechanism.

Very soon I will be picking up a new PC for the house and I will set it up with 1 terrabyte of storage on it to start and serve up all the DVD's in our house via Media Center extenders.