So with the end of fiscal year fiscal calls almost upon us, I thought I'd list out some things to watch for among Japanese publishers.
Square Enix: Square's call is in an awkward timeframe for them, because they're clearly in the middle of a transition, and have to weigh how much they want to say now versus how much they want to save for later. Most of their current initiatives have been a mixed bag of results, even though the company as a whole is very profitable, and they've been clear that they want to address that.
There's lots of experimentation with service games across every part of the company, the handheld market is now very blurred with console and/or mobile, their mobile division is going under a large strategy shift, their Western division is shifting to new series, and their Japanese console division still seems lost in the woods. This is before we even get to things like their Japanese esports efforts.
Traditionally, Square Enix would literally try to address all of this, but they don't want to shit talk products from their old strategies that haven't come out yet, especially without new ones to show.
Since I'm sure not everyone has been following, their recent changes include:
- Switching their Western studios to ongoing services (a la Hitman) or Marvel titles (Crystal Dynamics, Eidos Montreal) in the face of headwinds for mid-tier titles, a category which their games like Tomb Raider and Deus Ex have recently fallen into. There are still two new Tomb Raider games in development though, one of which is the Eidos Montreal title that's presumably exactly like the last game which underperformed, so this would be the hesitation in talking about games like this being outdated and hard to sell.
- They want to switch to making mobile games that are unique ideas and really stand out in the market. You usually can't overpower Fate/Grand Order's 200 person development team and brand power with even higher production values and brand strength, so Square Enix has announced they will do it by instead focusing on creating new categories. Their existing successful games will of course see continuous updates. The hard part here is that they made this decision not all that long ago, so it's not clear they will have any examples to point to.
- Square Enix also noted last time around that they wanted their handheld games to also all be on mobile as mobile premium title, but they were obviously slow rolling that one. Not sure they're ready to talk about anything related to that yet.
- As Final Fantasy XV's fascinating update cycle shows, along with some of their other titles, they would like to expand most of their products to the service model. That said, again, with the exception of their MMOs, the products aren't like to be ready to discuss.
- They're still very committed to Japanese esports despite canning all their old titles. Here, they'll probably talk about FLAME x BLAZE, as it's an upcoming title that's largely done.
- I'm not sure if they have any brand revivals left in the pipeline given most of those seem to have come out.
- It's hard to talk about Japanese HD console games that are still years off, so I imagine that discussion would largely be limited to Dragon Quest XI and a look back at recent games.
I guess they could just vaguely repeat all their old statements and give whatever updates they can. To be clear, by "talk about", I mean even in the sense of referencing unspecified upcoming titles and the strategy behind them, since it's awkward to announce a brilliant new strategy, and then titles that don't fit that strategy later.
Bandai Namco: Namco doesn't really say things in their fiscal calls to my knowledge, but they're already a king on mobile and their licensed business is going okay. Things like the Western indie business aren't worth mentioning. While I don't think they'll talk about it, the thing to watch for from them this year is actually probably their increased output of HD console titles with an actual budget. They've seen some success in the mid-tier boutique game space, and seem to be chasing it aggressively in a way they haven't in 5+ years, bringing back titles like Ace Combat, funding another Ni no Kuni, and even starting up new brands like Code Vein.
Konami: I imagine they're just going to stay the course with mobile and lower budget console/PC service titles. Nothing's really going wrong for them, and they haven't saturated any of these to the point that it makes sense to expand in new directions.
Koei Tecmo: I think Koei has to address their Japanese business at this point by either discussing what will replace their tumbling domestic sales, or how they're going to get them back. They've had a rough year with only a few bright spots, and there's not much reason for investors to believe the future is bright unless Koei sells them on it.
Sega: Yeah, I can't imagine they'll have much to say. Not exactly an ambitious company, and still have plenty of room to focus on their current business strategies and transitions. They can also fill as much air as needed with gambling and not look ridiculous doing so.
Nintendo: This should be a pretty easy fiscal call. They have 6-9 months of content announced already and they can spend a lot of time pointing to current successes. The main thing people will want to hear about it the full year Switch projection (they can just pick a safe-ish number like 10 million and likely be okay) and then talk about their mobile business (they can report Fire Emblem's sales, but I think they'll also be forced to talk about Animal Crossing, or at least set a date for talking about Animal Crossing).
Capcom: I think they'll need to promise some interesting things. I expect their three flagship titles to be at least somewhat under expectations, so they'll want to focus on the future, and that means they have to actually talk a lot about the future and why it will be better. They've got both four mobile games, and presumably more than one console game for this fiscal year, and I expect a lot of talk about them even if they don't say exactly what they are.
Overall, should be pretty informative.