Media Create Sales: Week 19, 2012 (May 07 - May 13)

Weird stuff: Famitsu says "Fire Emblem: Seisen no Keifu" for the SNES has sold 422k on this week's blurb. But in their 1996 top 100 they have it at 429,763.
Yeah, noticed that. Since they only gave a rounded number and it's only ~7K, I'll just keep the higher number for record-keeping. Small decreases like this for past data happen from time-to-time but not very often.

I noticed it but since it's Famitsu most likely someone mixed 2 with 9
Or that. :)
 
It's the mind games. If you can plainly see that you've got a one in a million chance of winning something, you might not invest so much into it. When that's hidden behind layers of seemingly-easy collection, it becomes more difficult to see. And by the time you realize it's a big scam, you've invested so much that it's hard to walk away.
I see that, but I'm curious what the actual *law* is that makes it illegal and yet keeps normal gacha intact. As an additional query, do the 'things you have to collect' have worth in their own right or are they only valuable in terms of being part of the trade-in for the big item?
 
I see that, but I'm curious what the actual *law* is that makes it illegal and yet keeps normal gacha intact. As an additional query, do the 'things you have to collect' have worth in their own right or are they only valuable in terms of being part of the trade-in for the big item?
I believe what they do is make you trade in x specific new "rare" cards for 1 "super rare." The rares are usable on their own, but obviously are of no worth to the people wanting the super rares.

The gov made it pretty clear that they'll be willing to add more regulation if things remain to be an issue, so for a while DeNa/GREE are likely going to be careful as to what they do. They ARE searching for workarounds, for sure -- Mobage Idolmaster's started some "second chance" gachas that let you draw again if you don't get anything good the first time, or something like that.
 
Capcom-unity tweeted that DD broke half a million pre-orders in Japan!
The number of pre-orders for the game in Japan has also reportedly exceeded half a million
http://www.capcom-unity.com/gregaman/blog/2012/05/18/lots_of_love_for_dragons_dogma_in_japan

Even if we assume that is somewhat true (and that someone is not confusing Gold award from review with Gold award from record sales in the US), it means Capcom is
over
shipping 500k copies of this game. It absolutely does not mean pre-orders from consumers.
 
I believe what they do is make you trade in x specific new "rare" cards for 1 "super rare." The rares are usable on their own, but obviously are of no worth to the people wanting the super rares.
I think I'm following, but just to clarify: The base *game* remains legal throughout, it's merely the *trade-in* component that is breaking the law?

The issue I'm having is that if you break it down to that level, it boils down to saying that "If you give me A, B and C, I will give you Z" is illegal... which strikes me as absurd, even if it is well-intentioned.

If an independent party were to offer the trade-in, who would be deemed as having broken the law? We've established that gacha without a trade-in component is legal, so I can't see how it can be the gacha controllers; yet the independent party is basically just offering a barter of legal items, so I struggle to see how they've broken the law either.
 
New IP's rarely launch with numbers that high on the PS3 in Japan. If there's anything that my years of MC threads have taught me is that Japan likes familiarity (and they aren't alone in that so don't think I am picking on them) and it takes an established franchise to pull in numbers north of 250k for an opening week.

Of course there's a first time for everything and I could be completely wrong. And that would be fine, really, as DD looks to be a fine game.
 
it takes an established franchise to pull in numbers north of 250k for an opening week.
Opening Weeks (Famitsu)

PSP God Eater - 276K (Feb-2010)
WII Wii Fit - 254K (Dec-2007)
PS2 Devil May Cry - 353K (Aug-2001)
PS2 Onimusha: Warlords - 517K (Jan-2001)

That's pretty much it since 2000, excluding new game series based on an existing IP/fanbase (e.g. Kingdom Hearts, Xenosaga, Love & Berry, a Square Baseball game).
 
The issue I'm having is that if you break it down to that level, it boils down to saying that "If you give me A, B and C, I will give you Z" is illegal... which strikes me as absurd, even if it is well-intentioned.
Gatcha is a specific product/marketing system that's implemented on a software level, it has nothing to do with people trading real goods individually or reselling things and the decision has no impact on such things. Japan has a consumer affairs agency that has the ability to issue regulation regarding consumer product offerings that are potentially misleading, abusive, or otherwise inappropriate, and they identified this form of offering as falling in that category, so it's banned. It's not that complicated, I don't understand why you're trying to make it difficult.
 
New IP's rarely launch with numbers that high on the PS3 in Japan. If there's anything that my years of MC threads have taught me is that Japan likes familiarity (and they aren't alone in that so don't think I am picking on them) and it takes an established franchise to pull in numbers north of 250k for an opening week.

Of course there's a first time for everything and I could be completely wrong. And that would be fine, really, as DD looks to be a fine game.
Onimusha:


Capcom has a history of establishing new franchises at high levels. Resident Evil was similar. What will hold DD back though is the relative lack of strength of PS3 versus earlier PSes.
 
Onimusha:

Capcom has a history of establishing new franchises at high levels. Resident Evil was similar. What will hold DD back though is the relative lack of strength of PS3 versus earlier PSes.
While your point is correct, you really need to emphasize the word "history". The last franchise with an opening week over 500k was Onimusha, and that was 11 years ago. When you have to go back more than a decade for an example, it really becomes more of a campfire story about the olden days of yore rather than a point of reference as to what should be expected in the near future.
 
Opening Weeks (Famitsu)

PSP God Eater - 276K (Feb-2010)
WII Wii Fit - 254K (Dec-2007)
PS2 Devil May Cry - 353K (Aug-2001)
PS2 Onimusha: Warlords - 517K (Jan-2001)

That's pretty much it since 2000, excluding new game series based on an existing IP/fanbase (e.g. Kingdom Hearts, Xenosaga, Love & Berry, a Square Baseball game).
If God Eater made 276k riding on the MH on PSP popularity I'd say that DD making 250k debut will be big success for Capcom.
 
Wasn't DD very high on a list for the most anticipated game for 2012. Sure it's from one magazine/website but I'm not really surprised if it ends up doing quite well.
 
Gatcha is a specific product/marketing system that's implemented on a software level, it has nothing to do with people trading real goods individually or reselling things and the decision has no impact on such things. Japan has a consumer affairs agency that has the ability to issue regulation regarding consumer product offerings that are potentially misleading, abusive, or otherwise inappropriate, and they identified this form of offering as falling in that category, so it's banned. It's not that complicated, I don't understand why you're trying to make it difficult.
It's the 'on a software level' that's throwing me, I think. I was assuming the name was derived from Gachapon, which would be the same basic concept applied to physical objects, and I couldn't see how the same principle applied to *that* could have the 'simple' version being legal but the 'complete' version being illegal. If this law only applies to situations where the company running the gacha have total control over the environment in which the gacha is relevant, that's a key difference I wasn't taking into account.

I'm not arguing from a standpoint of "I don't think this should be illegal" as much as I am "I don't understand why one's legal and the other isn't". I think it might be the name that's a stumbling block for me, making me think in terms of a false equivalence.
 
I did some pixel counting.

Hardware Shipments:

Code:
FY	Famicom      	Sega 8 Bit   	PC Engine    	Mega Drive   	Super Famicom	Saturn       
84	450,000      	200,000      	             	             	             	             
85	1,650,000    	240,000      	             			
86	3,740,000    	280,000      	             			
87	3,900,000    	280,000      	             			
88	1,780,000    	240,000      	560,000      			
89	1,590,000    	200,000      	840,000      	400,000      		
90	1,520,000    	             	940,000      	600,000      		
91	1,360,000    		        1,310,000    	900,000      	660,000      	
92	1,240,000    		        1,030,000    	700,000      	3,150,000    	
93	820,000      	        	660,000      	400,000      	3,580,000    	
94	540,000      	        	380,000      	450,000      	4,430,000    	
95	280,000              		180,000      	100,000      	2,650,000    	840,000      
96	80,000       	        	             	30,000       	1,780,000    	1,660,000    
97	80,000       			                             	620,000      	2,310,000    
98	30,000       			                        	190,000      	810,000      
99	50,000       				                        50,000       	150,000      
00	50,000       				                        30,000       	             
01	50,000       			                         	10,000       	
02	60,000       	                         			10,000       	
03	60,000                                    	               	10,000       	
04	30,000                               				10,000
http://ocw.u-tokyo.ac.jp/wp-content/uploads/lecture-notes_eng/Eco_07/e-shintaku-09-3.pdf
http://www.stat.go.jp/english/info/meetings/iaos/pdf/tanaka.pdf
http://seminar.econ.keio.ac.jp/tamada/thesis/mitasai/2007/game.pdf

"Sega 8 Bit" includes SG-1000 and SMS , however as one of the links above gives SG-1000 LTD as 400k it's probably safe to assume that SG-1000 only sold notable numbers from FY84-FY85, and FY86-FY89 is almost all SMS. That link also gives a LTD of 300k for Epoch's Super Cassette Vision.
 
While your point is correct, you really need to emphasize the word "history". The last franchise with an opening week over 500k was Onimusha, and that was 11 years ago. When you have to go back more than a decade for an example, it really becomes more of a campfire story about the olden days of yore rather than a point of reference as to what should be expected in the near future.
Other franchises by Capcom weren't as big out of the door but MonHun (which already sold better than FFXI on PS2, also held back by the need for the HDD adapter) ended up being even more impressive than Onimusha. Capcom is the one 3rd party company that consistently builds a different (multi) million seller franchise each gen (SFII, RE, Onimusha, MH). Onimusha actually is the least impressive one.

Lost Planet also didn't do too shabby for being on 360 although it was mostly a Western success.

Onimusha, same as Dino Crisis, was similar enough to RE (engine or genre-wise) to attract part of the same audience. Even though the similarities of DD with MonHun are limited they can be compared to the above group of games, superficial but it might appeal to the same fans.

Anyway, I'm not saying DD will be big but I wouldn't be surprised if it will. But I did state that it would be harder to replicate that kind of success on the HD consoles. Capcom has some trust among a large part of the audience that makes their buyers more receptive to new franchises. Question is, how many of them are on PS3? I don't expect great cross over with RE but with MH.
 
I did some pixel counting.

Hardware Shipments:

Code:
FY	Famicom      	Sega 8 Bit   	PC Engine    	Mega Drive   	Super Famicom	Saturn       
84	450,000      	200,000      	             	             	             	             
85	1,650,000    	240,000      	             			
86	3,740,000    	280,000      	             			
87	3,900,000    	280,000      	             			
88	1,780,000    	240,000      	560,000      			
89	1,590,000    	200,000      	840,000      	400,000      		
90	1,520,000    	             	940,000      	600,000      		
91	1,360,000    		        1,310,000    	900,000      	660,000      	
92	1,240,000    		        1,030,000    	700,000      	3,150,000    	
93	820,000      	        	660,000      	400,000      	3,580,000    	
94	540,000      	        	380,000      	450,000      	4,430,000    	
95	280,000              		180,000      	100,000      	2,650,000    	840,000      
96	80,000       	        	             	30,000       	1,780,000    	1,660,000    
97	80,000       			                             	620,000      	2,310,000    
98	30,000       			                        	190,000      	810,000      
99	50,000       				                        50,000       	150,000      
00	50,000       				                        30,000       	             
01	50,000       			                         	10,000       	
02	60,000       	                         			10,000       	
03	60,000                                    	               	10,000       	
04	30,000                               				10,000
http://ocw.u-tokyo.ac.jp/wp-content/uploads/lecture-notes_eng/Eco_07/e-shintaku-09-3.pdf
http://www.stat.go.jp/english/info/meetings/iaos/pdf/tanaka.pdf
http://seminar.econ.keio.ac.jp/tamada/thesis/mitasai/2007/game.pdf

"Sega 8 Bit" includes SG-1000 and SMS , however as one of the links above gives SG-1000 LTD as 400k it's probably safe to assume that SG-1000 only sold notable numbers from FY84-FY85, and FY86-FY89 is almost all SMS. That link also gives a LTD of 300k for Epoch's Super Cassette Vision.
Interesting numbers. Sure, the Famicom was a monster at that time. Super Famicon was shorter lived though. Probably because on the Playstation.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Anyway, I'm not saying DD will be big but I wouldn't be surprised if it will. But I did state that it would be harder to replicate that kind of success on the HD consoles. Capcom has some trust among a large part of the audience that makes their buyers more receptive to new franchises. Question is, how many of them are on PS3? I don't expect great cross over with RE but with MH.
I'm sure we would have heard something from retailers blogs if hype and preorders for this game were so big.
 
I'm sure we would have heard something from retailers blogs if hype and preorders for this game were so big.
How big is so big? I never gave any number. I only said it should be less than 500 000 first week. I could add considerably so. For the reason already stated twice.

I'm not saying you are wrong in your expectation, I just find it annoying that you try to nail me on a prediction I'm not making.

I simply put some things said here and elsewhere into perspective. When the guy at Capcom says one million is doable he might turn out to be wrong but I see where he's coming from expectation wise.
 
I did some pixel counting.

Hardware Shipments:

Code:
FY	Famicom      	Sega 8 Bit   	PC Engine    	Mega Drive   	Super Famicom	Saturn       
84	450,000      	200,000      	             	             	             	             
85	1,650,000    	240,000      	             			
86	3,740,000    	280,000      	             			
87	3,900,000    	280,000      	             			
88	1,780,000    	240,000      	560,000      			
89	1,590,000    	200,000      	840,000      	400,000      		
90	1,520,000    	             	940,000      	600,000      		
91	1,360,000    		        1,310,000    	900,000      	660,000      	
92	1,240,000    		        1,030,000    	700,000      	3,150,000    	
93	820,000      	        	660,000      	400,000      	3,580,000    	
94	540,000      	        	380,000      	450,000      	4,430,000    	
95	280,000              		180,000      	100,000      	2,650,000    	840,000      
96	80,000       	        	             	30,000       	1,780,000    	1,660,000    
97	80,000       			                             	620,000      	2,310,000    
98	30,000       			                        	190,000      	810,000      
99	50,000       				                        50,000       	150,000      
00	50,000       				                        30,000       	             
01	50,000       			                         	10,000       	
02	60,000       	                         			10,000       	
03	60,000                                    	               	10,000       	
04	30,000                               				10,000
http://ocw.u-tokyo.ac.jp/wp-content/uploads/lecture-notes_eng/Eco_07/e-shintaku-09-3.pdf
http://www.stat.go.jp/english/info/meetings/iaos/pdf/tanaka.pdf
http://seminar.econ.keio.ac.jp/tamada/thesis/mitasai/2007/game.pdf

"Sega 8 Bit" includes SG-1000 and SMS , however as one of the links above gives SG-1000 LTD as 400k it's probably safe to assume that SG-1000 only sold notable numbers from FY84-FY85, and FY86-FY89 is almost all SMS. That link also gives a LTD of 300k for Epoch's Super Cassette Vision.
Very nice find, thx BKK. :)

Are these calendar year shipments or fiscal year shipments?
 
Why there is no data for Saturn in 1994 ?
It was released on 22 Nov, so at least it was available for 5 weeks on that year

Also, Famicom did 30k in 2004 ? How was it possible ? Nintendo still manufacturing after 10 years ?
 
Also, Famicom did 30k in 2004 ? How was it possible ? Nintendo still manufacturing after 10 years ?
Famicom has been produced during 20 years. They stopped after 20 years (alongside the super famicom) because it was becoming nearly impossible to get the parts, IIRC.

I don't know who was still buying it circa 2004, though. Produced to replace broken ones sent to SAV?
 
I simply put some things said here and elsewhere into perspective. When the guy at Capcom says one million is doable he might turn out to be wrong but I see where he's coming from expectation wise.
But the perspective that you are using isn't based in sales data. That's why people are commenting.

The last Capcom franchise with an opening week of 500k was Onimusha 11 years ago. The last Capcom frachise to open with 1M LTD was - well, never, other than Resident Evil, and that one and only example was 16 years ago (Onimusha didn't even make it to 1M without the budget rerelease). And that's with almost 30 years of history.

Of course there's always a first time for everything, but there's nothing to suggest that DD will be that first time in 15+ years. And yeah, maybe they'll grow and nurture DD into a big franchise, and maybe DD2 or DD3 will become a million seller - but we're only talking about DD1 right now.

As for the Capcom guy that said he thought it could sell a million in Japan, IIRC, he also said he thought it could do 10M worldwide. That's just someone who wants to see the game that he's been working on succeed. That's not based on any actual market analysis. Believe me, Capcom isn't expecting 1M in Japan, and they certainly aren't expecting 10M worldwide.
 
But the perspective that you are using isn't based in sales data. That's why people are commenting.
How is it not based in sales data? I said that Capcom has a history of establishing new franchises at high levels (a statement that isn't limited to million sellers or 500 000 launch weeks, the original MH outselling FFXI 2:1 on a very expensive platform is impressive as well). This is especially true of PS1 and PS2, yes. I acknowledged from the very beginning that on the current HD consoles Onimusha like success was not to be expected from DD. My point was purely that

If there's anything that my years of MC threads have taught me is that Japan likes familiarity (and they aren't alone in that so don't think I am picking on them) and it takes an established franchise to pull in numbers north of 250k for an opening week.
is not true in general. If this sentence was supposed to be limited exclusively to PS3 (not clear from the wording as he speaks about Japan, not the Japanese PS3 audience) then so far matmanx is right but in general Capcom does not need familiarity or established franchises to achieve impressive results.

In my reply to your post I did widen the scope of my statements and I still wasn't arguing in favor of DD doing 500 000 first week (why would I start now?) but the new perspective I gave was still based in sales. SFII did 2.88 million on SFC. Of course there was SF before it. But the sudden rise in popularity had little to do with familiarity, the rise was much too drastic for that. Again, MH doing multi million on PSP had little to do with familiarity with the ~500 000 selling PS2 franchise. It's because MHP provided a new experience which met the taste of a lot of players. Capcom can provide exceptional quality and the audience knows that.

And while I'm not making any predictions, DD has been getting good pre-orders and ranked high on Famitsu's most wanted list (with the number of votes also rising in general recently). I'm not expecting miracles from DD but Capcom has a history of successfully establishing new franchises, some right out of the door, some over time. That is a perspective and the examples I gave are all based on actual sales.

I don't need to refute the particular argument you choose to make to provide sales based perspective.
 
Those are fiscal years ending March 31. Saturn's 1994 sales are included in the year ending March 31 1995.
thanks


Famicom has been produced during 20 years. They stopped after 20 years (alongside the super famicom) because it was becoming nearly impossible to get the parts, IIRC.

I don't know who was still buying it circa 2004, though. Produced to replace broken ones sent to SAV?
probably, but 30k yearly means over 600 units a week, so many people still used a Famicom in the early XXI century ? :D
 
probably, but 30k yearly means over 600 units a week, so many people still used a Famicom in the early XXI century ? :D
I truly don't know, and that has bothered me since I heard that they were stopping producing famicom and super famicom after the twentiest anniversary of the famicom.

I'd welcome an explanation, too.
 
How is it not based in sales data?
I don't know, maybe we're just misinterpreting each other's comments. But your initial post was made in light of the discussion about DD selling 500k in the first week, followed by matmanx1 stating that it was highly unusual for a new franchise to open above 250k. And in Capcom's case, matmanx1 is absolutely right. The last time a new Capcom franchise opened above 250k was Devil May Cry, back in 2001 - more than a decade ago.

Using Monster Hunter as an example makes no sense. That is a franchise that has been cultivated and has grown over time. It started wtih 300k on PS2, then MH2 did 600k on PS2, then Freedom did 670k on PSP with another 300k in a budget release. Then the next version went over a million on PSP, with Freedom Unite then going over 2 million, etc.

And as you pointed out, Street Fighter had an initial run in the arcades, and then ports to consoles before Street Fighter 2 was released. But even if you want to use Street Fighter 2 as an example, that was more than 20 years ago, and started off its success (and familiarity) in the arcades before it ever reached consoles.

Honestly, there just aren't any examples of Capcom finding big success from the first entry of a new franchise in the past decade. Again, that isn't to say that they can't grow series into big franchises over time (a la Monster Hunter).

But their biggest (and this is actually kind of sad) first week for a new franchise in the last decade is Monster Hunter at 120k, and their biggest LTD for a new franchise in the last decade (and this is even more sad) is also Monster Hunter at 289k. Dragon's Dogma could potentially end up beating both of those quite easily, but that's Capcom's past decade with the first entry of a new franchise. Pretty damn miserable actually.

And in light of those kinds of numbers, your comment about understanding how the Capcom guy expected a million in sales for Dragon's Dogma in Japan was kind of baffling.
 
is not true in general.
Opening Weeks (Famitsu)

PSP God Eater - 276K (Feb-2010)
WII Wii Fit - 254K (Dec-2007)
PS2 Devil May Cry - 353K (Aug-2001)
PS2 Onimusha: Warlords - 517K (Jan-2001)

That's pretty much it since 2000, excluding new game series based on an existing IP/fanbase (e.g. Kingdom Hearts, Xenosaga, Love & Berry, a Square Baseball game).
Yes, it is true, in general.
 
How is it not based in sales data? I said that Capcom has a history of establishing new franchises at high levels (a statement that isn't limited to million sellers or 500 000 launch weeks, the original MH outselling FFXI 2:1 on a very expensive platform is impressive as well). This is especially true of PS1 and PS2, yes. I acknowledged from the very beginning that on the current HD consoles Onimusha like success was not to be expected from DD. My point was purely that



is not true in general. If this sentence was supposed to be limited exclusively to PS3 (not clear from the wording as he speaks about Japan, not the Japanese PS3 audience) then so far matmanx is right but in general Capcom does not need familiarity or established franchises to achieve impressive results.

In my reply to your post I did widen the scope of my statements and I still wasn't arguing in favor of DD doing 500 000 first week (why would I start now?) but the new perspective I gave was still based in sales. SFII did 2.88 million on SFC. Of course there was SF before it. But the sudden rise in popularity had little to do with familiarity, the rise was much too drastic for that. Again, MH doing multi million on PSP had little to do with familiarity with the ~500 000 selling PS2 franchise. It's because MHP provided a new experience which met the taste of a lot of players. Capcom can provide exceptional quality and the audience knows that.

And while I'm not making any predictions, DD has been getting good pre-orders and ranked high on Famitsu's most wanted list (with the number of votes also rising in general recently). I'm not expecting miracles from DD but Capcom has a history of successfully establishing new franchises, some right out of the door, some over time. That is a perspective and the examples I gave are all based on actual sales.

I don't need to refute the particular argument you choose to make to provide sales based perspective.
I was speaking specifically about the PS3 but as Donny2112 has pointed out it really doesn't matter which system you look at. The numbers don't lie. Brand new franchises have a very established history of opening far short of 250k.

I'm certainly not saying that DD couldn't buck that trend and open up much higher but statistically speaking when looking at past performance and especially performance this generation on the PS3 it's not likely.

Edit - Something just occurred to me regarding DD. It is a major franchise launch by a major publisher very late in the PS3's life. The userbase is certainly there to support it and Capcom seems to be advertising it well. Perhaps there are reasons to conclude that it will buck the statistical model? Just a thought.
 
I'm not arguing from a standpoint of "I don't think this should be illegal" as much as I am "I don't understand why one's legal and the other isn't". I think it might be the name that's a stumbling block for me, making me think in terms of a false equivalence.

I'm still reading though the thread... but to answer your question: it's because of the ever fun topic of the fine lines of the law!.

Based on famitsu's legal explanation: A gatcha is considered an actual business transaction, whereas complete gatcha is considered an extra incentive to try and lure you into a transaction,

When dealing with these type of incentive goods, it's illegal to offer things where you have to match more then one pictures/ words/ to get a set(aka, why a point card is okay but not complete gatchas, also why it would be okay to have you have to collect 10 potions to get a mega potion).


______________________________________________________________________

The actual law is a fun 30 year old artifice that was made when companies were tricking poor little children into spending every cent they had on collecting full sets of baseball cards. It hasn't has had a ruling on it since 1999.

Aka... a lot of good old cynical political commentators say the police just hit the books looking for any law they could apply to crack down on social games.
 
I don't know, maybe we're just misinterpreting each other's comments. But your initial post was made in light of the discussion about DD selling 500k in the first week, followed by matmanx1 stating that it was highly unusual for a new franchise to open above 250k. And in Capcom's case, matmanx1 is absolutely right. The last time a new Capcom franchise opened above 250k was Devil May Cry, back in 2001 - more than a decade ago.

Using Monster Hunter as an example makes no sense. That is a franchise that has been cultivated and has grown over time. It started wtih 300k on PS2, then MH2 did 600k on PS2, then Freedom did 670k on PSP with another 300k in a budget release. Then the next version went over a million on PSP, with Freedom Unite then going over 2 million, etc.

And as you pointed out, Street Fighter had an initial run in the arcades, and then ports to consoles before Street Fighter 2 was released. But even if you want to use Street Fighter 2 as an example, that was more than 20 years ago, and started off its success (and familiarity) in the arcades before it ever reached consoles.

Honestly, there just aren't any examples of Capcom finding big success from the first entry of a new franchise in the past decade. Again, that isn't to say that they can't grow series into big franchises over time (a la Monster Hunter).

But their biggest (and this is actually kind of sad) first week for a new franchise in the last decade is Monster Hunter at 120k, and their biggest LTD for a new franchise in the last decade (and this is even more sad) is also Monster Hunter at 289k. Dragon's Dogma could potentially end up beating both of those quite easily, but that's Capcom's past decade with the first entry of a new franchise. Pretty damn miserable actually.

And in light of those kinds of numbers, your comment about understanding how the Capcom guy expected a million in sales for Dragon's Dogma in Japan was kind of baffling.
Instead of seeing it as 11 years ago. Why dont you see it as just last generation? Every generation capcom has a success new establish franchise. And most of that came from their reputation and the audience who trust the quality. If you really follow jp sale back then when onimusha release , nobody has a clue that the game will be that success. It just came out at the time when PS2 did not very well on its first year due to the lack of good software.

You try to point out that capcom havent made a good success for the first entry in new franchise ( well in case you want to exclude MH which doent have the explode opening ). That is because they havent had much new establish franchise too? What is their big budget game in last ten years? Besides RE , no. It doesnt mean DD will be a great success just because they put a lot of money into it. But your statement about the game is not going to be a success seems a bit wrong compare to capcom whole history.

Also After the sale of Xillia and one piece. I would say the ps3 user is quite active now. And any game half decent will sale fine. PS3 is really lack of good software in japan rightnow. DD has some hype i dont expect. And i believe that could translate into sale in some way. If the shop made 500k preorder which is even more than xillia and one oiece then i dont see why is that could be seen as bad potential of the game?