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[Cygnus X-1]

I think that's 20 billion yen actually :O

But it's still a little too early to say they're in trouble.

Thanks for the tip.

 

[Celine]

Iwata will stay put. Yamauchi put him there.

.
Unless Yamauchi don't want him anymore.

 

[GDGF]

Yamauchi is still Nintendo's largest shareholder. Iwata is safe, and rightfully so. Look at how much ass the 3DS is kicking in Japan. Reggie and Kimishima on the other hand....

I want them to fire Reggie and drag Arakawa out of retirement.


Just the wish of an old timer.

 

[Leonsito]

Well, the money wasted on getting GTA V exclusive for WiiU has to come from somewhere.

Btw, how does the foreign exchange rate affect losses? It's because you make less money from sales outside of Japan?

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Sales of 3DS games better explode in Q3. This anyway will teach them a lesson to not being lazy just because things were going well.

Is lazy shorthand for something?

There are actual applications of the word "lazy" being used on this board - accurate ones, at that. Like, IGN's Pixeljunk review was lazy. No online play in Sonic and Sega All-Stars Racing PC was lazy. Like, they had work to do, they didn't want to do it, so they didn't.

Is there any evidence that, like, Konno was blowing off working on the 3DS (which is what I'm presuming this is referring to) to take naps?

Complacent is a usable word in this situation. Arrogant, maybe. Stubborn, definitely. But lazy?

 

[lordfroakie]

*Looks at avatar*

...

Not sure if troll, or just trying to be ironic or... something else.

Im talking about the brief meeting, not the results lol

 

[Orayn]

Well, the money wasted on getting GTA V exclusive for WiiU has to come from somewhere.

Btw, how does the foreign exchange rate affect losses? It's because you make less money from sales outside of Japan?

Yep. Even if they make a lot of dollars and euros, it doesn't translate into a lot of yen because the yen is crazy strong right now by comparison.

 

[Sempuukyaku]

I want them to fire Reggie and drag Arakawa out of retirement.


Just the wish of an old timer.

Arakawa AND Lincoln both. No way would they tolerate having such a sparse lineup for their flagship home console (Wii). They really GOT what Nintendo is all about.

 

[watershed]

If this is their plan, it is reactionary and short-sighted.

Maybe its too early to tell but if you look at the 3ds in Japan Nintendo is clearly positioning it as their sole handheld while phasing out the entire ds line. They're giving it a ton of software in hopes of making a big splash this holiday and sustaining that momentum into the new year. Europe is getting serious with the 3ds with two new bundles but mainly relying on 1st party games (Super Mario 3d Land and Mario Kart) to carry the system. In NA Nintendo seems to want one more big holiday out of the 3ds with the new bundle announced and lack of 3ds bundle.

The big 3ds games will be coming to EU and NA but localizations take time so in the mean time Nintendo seems to secure as many new Japanese 3ds games as possible.

 

[Erethian]

Well, the money wasted on getting GTA V exclusive for WiiU has to come from somewhere.

Btw, how does the foreign exchange rate affect losses? It's because you make less money from sales outside of Japan?

It could be because of a devaluation of the foreign assets they hold, or because of hedging losses, or a number of other things.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Arakawa AND Lincoln both. No way would they tolerate having such a sparse lineup for their flagship home console (Wii). They really GOT what Nintendo is all about.

Man, what? Lincoln was supportive of picking and choosing what games came over. He and Arakawa were all for the rule that only allowed publishers to produce a few games a year!

 

[Sempuukyaku]

Weren't analysts predicting a $1.3 billion dollar loss btw? It ended up being a $263 million dollar loss. Nikkei was WAY off with their projections.

 

[Erethian]

Maybe its too early to tell but if you look at the 3ds in Japan Nintendo is clearly positioning it as their sole handheld while phasing out the entire ds line. They're giving it a ton of software in hopes of making a big splash this holiday and sustaining that momentum into the new year. Europe is getting serious with the 3ds with two new bundles but mainly relying on 1st party games (Super Mario 3d Land and Mario Kart) to carry the system. In NA Nintendo seems to want one more big holiday out of the 3ds with the new bundle announced and lack of 3ds bundle.

The big 3ds games will be coming to EU and NA but localizations take time so in the mean time Nintendo seems to secure as many new Japanese 3ds games as possible.

Outside of securing Monster Hunter, which Nintendo would have done whatever the situation, I don't see any change.

I think you're confusing the traditional reliance on Japanese developers for serious handheld support with an actual shift in strategy. As well as NCL just generally being better about doing business in Japan compared to how NoA and NoE operate.

 

[thirty]

I can't help but feel that WiiU is going to be the straw that breaks the camel's back at Nintendo. I just don't see how it'll be able to compete if the other 2 out muscle it graphically.

 

[watershed]

So what can Nintendo realistically announce/reveal/discuss at tomorrow's briefing to boost investor confidence or just to generate some positive head lines? By realistically I mean not a new Mother game.

If nothing new comes out of it, it will be the saddest Nintendo financial briefing to date.

 

[Furoba]

They recently announced to have a war chest of about 1,05 trillion yen, right? Still 980 billion yen left, then. They can swallow these kind of losses for +7 years on end without even going into debt. The question for the following decade is if Nintendo will slowly decline and shrink, retain its position, or grow further in new directions.

 

[Orayn]

I can't help but feel that WiiU is going to be the straw that breaks the camel's back at Nintendo. I just don't see how it'll be able to compete if the other 2 out muscle it graphically.

You mean like how the DS, PS2, and Wii failed because of their inferior graffix?

Fucking hell, 3DS sales almost ground TO A HALT in between the early-adopter rush and the price cut.

On the bright side, they look pretty good now.

 

[Medalion]

I can't help but feel that WiiU is going to be the straw that breaks the camel's back at Nintendo. I just don't see how it'll be able to compete if the other 2 out muscle it graphically.

Yeah cuz graphics was a defining factor of the last gen of what sold the most eh

 

[Cygnus X-1]

Is lazy shorthand for something?

There are actual applications of the word "lazy" being used on this board - accurate ones, at that. Like, IGN's Pixeljunk review was lazy. No online play in Sonic and Sega All-Stars Racing PC was lazy. Like, they had work to do, they didn't want to do it, so they didn't.

Is there any evidence that, like, Konno was blowing off working on the 3DS (which is what I'm presuming this is referring to) to take naps?

Complacent is a usable word in this situation. Arrogant, maybe. Stubborn, definitely. But lazy?

There were definitely signs of slowdown concerning Wii and DS during last 2 years. They underestimated the situation and this is the result. 3DS, surprisingly, is their only system which is selling exactly in line with their predictions and I suspect the software will follow too during Q3. But Wii dropped like a rock and their inability to balance development over two/three systems also damaged them considerably. Also, their sales especially dropped in the States because...there were no games at all recently! Localization would have helped, but of course it was just a part of the story.
Anyway, underestimating a situation and do not act toward some signs to me sounds like pure laziness, i.e. the willingly decision to not act and stay still, because it was easier.

 

[GDGF]

So what can Nintendo realistically announce/reveal/discuss at tomorrow's briefing to boost investor confidence or just to generate some positive head lines? By realistically I mean not a new Mother game.

If nothing new comes out of it, it will be the saddest Nintendo financial briefing to date.

Majora's Mask 3DS?

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

If I were Nintendo, and mind you this is a purely business-driven decision, the fire lit under my ass would result in waaaaaay more Japanese-only games meant to appeal solely to Japan.

They can't do shit about the weak dollar and euro and only the Stonecutters can do something about the pound, so if Nintendo were the type of company that would go "Fuck it, our fans can deal without 1/3rd of our output until the dollar and the euro stop sucking," then that would be the "fire" I'd expect.

Ignoring the European and American markets does not make much sense from business-driven decision. It takes a few 100k to dub/translate a game. Let´s say Xenoblade costed 10 million to make in Japan, than they dub it and market it. Let´s say the total cost becomes 20 million. If Nintendo sells around 2 million in the EU and the US, add in the currency difference and the project will still be profitable ( it just hypothetically speaking, i have not done calculations). Not only that they would have built a base for a sequel to be made. The EU and the US are too huge to ignore imo.

 

[Sempuukyaku]

Man, what? Lincoln was supportive of picking and choosing what games came over. He and Arakawa were all for the rule that only allowed publishers to produce a few games a year!

Look at NOA's localization track record when they were at the helm vs Reggie's (and Kimishima). It's not even close. Furthermore its because of Arakawa that we have NST as well. They really championed NOA having more involvement in software development.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

So what can Nintendo realistically announce/reveal/discuss at tomorrow's briefing to boost investor confidence or just to generate some positive head lines? By realistically I mean not a new Mother game.

If nothing new comes out of it, it will be the saddest Nintendo financial briefing to date.

I doubt there will be any game announcement they've been sitting on to calm investors.

Investors don't give a shit about games. They want numbers.

I mean, maybe he'll talk about how Dragon Quest X is going to be a Wii U launch title or something? Investors understand Dragon Quest = money.

But I imagine it will mostly be "Foreign exchange rates, we'll be looking closely at how we do business overseas from now on, we believe software drives this industry, Mario Kart Dragon Quest Monster Hunter give us one fucking christmas goddamn"

 

[Medalion]

Its the lowest price i've ever seen for a new handheld, its crazy low already.
Its the software prices that need to change, having them the same as home console games is just laughable.
Its not lack of hardware sales that kills a system, its lack of software sales that will do it in.

He meant the cost to produce, not to sell

 

[Orayn]

He meant the cost to produce, not to sell

But they can't skimp on the Nintendium, man. They just can't!

 

[Duxxy3]

I can already tell what the conference will be

Iwata: *bow Good morning

Iwata: Nintendoomed /sadface

cue snoopy sad music as Iwata walks off stage with his head down

 

[Medalion]

Iwata will do hairflips for several mins and the investors will be so tantalized they will cheer and applaud and he walks off stage they'll all be like... HEY WAIT A MINUTE!

 

[thirty]

Its the lowest price i've ever seen for a new handheld, its crazy low already.
Its the software prices that need to change, having them the same as home console games is just laughable.
Its not lack of hardware sales that kills a system, its lack of software sales that will do it in.

So true. When your main competitors games cost 1 to 2 dollars and yours cost FOURTY there's a problem.

 

[NIghtWolf]

I can already tell what the conference will be

Iwata: *bow Good morning

Iwata: Nintendoomed /sadface

cue snoopy sad music as Iwata walks off stage with his head down

lol..I actually laughed at this, you should get banned, just saying.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

But I imagine it will mostly be "Foreign exchange rates, we'll be looking closely at how we do business overseas from now on, we believe software drives this industry, Mario Kart Dragon Quest Monster Hunter give us one fucking christmas goddamn"

Though they will predict losses over the year. Their sales forecast over the FY dropped from 900 billions yens to 750 billions yens. And this is not their first revision of their forecast. I can't see how these can be considered good signs for the next year. If 3DS doesn't explode worldwide and keep selling like crazy, Nintendo could face more than just one year of losses.

 

[watershed]

I doubt there will be any game announcement they've been sitting on to calm investors.

Investors don't give a shit about games. They want numbers.

I mean, maybe he'll talk about how Dragon Quest X is going to be a Wii U launch title or something? Investors understand Dragon Quest = money.

But I imagine it will mostly be "Foreign exchange rates, we'll be looking closely at how we do business overseas from now on, we believe software drives this industry, Mario Kart Dragon Quest Monster Hunter give us one fucking christmas goddamn"

Aren't these briefings the ones where Iwata does a slide show presentation? He's made announcements that way before. Specifically I remember the new Kirby game and Pandora's Tower. Investors may not care but announcements do break the cycle of purely negative news and change the conversation for a bit. Its a tactic Iwata has used before so I hope he does so again.

Specifically I'm hoping for news on demos, flipnote 3d, and some surprising new games.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Though they will predict losses over the year. Their sales forecast over the FY dropped from 900 billions yens to 750 billions yens. And this is not their first revision of their forecast. I can't see how these can be considered good signs for the next year. If 3DS doesn't explode worldwide and keep selling like crazy, Nintendo could face more than just one year of losses.

This is ultimately part of the problem, because there's nothing they can do within the next year to prevent those losses.

Iwata might just need to admit that. He might have to go up there, sell his case that this is about more than 2012, and hope they don't boo him off the stage, even if they believe him.

 

[Kazerei]

Iwata will deflect questions with the flick of his bangs.

 

[Azure Dream]

Yeah cuz graphics was a defining factor of the last gen of what sold the most eh

I'm actually a little concerned about what Skyward Sword shows about Nintendo's current developmental output limitations. Not so much about the title itself, but that a single major Wii game really seemed to throttle their output for a very long period. It's only going to get worse on an HD platform.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

Ignoring the European and American markets does not make much sense from business-driven decision. It takes a few 100k to dub/translate a game. Let´s say Xenoblade costed 10 million to make in Japan, than they dub it and market it. Let´s say the total cost becomes 20 million. If Nintendo sells around 2 million in the EU and the US, add in the currency difference and the project will still be profitable ( it just hypothetically speaking, i have not done calculations). Not only that they would have built a base for a sequel to be made. The EU and the US are too huge to ignore imo.

Ignoring them: no. Focussing more on the domestic market: yes. After all, the percentage of sales realized in Japan w.r.t. the world were of just 15% last year. And this is a value that kept dropping over the last years. Since the problems with the euro and the weakness of the dollar and not going to be solved anytime soon, it is in the interest of Nintendo to increase their sales in Japan. And I believe that's the reason why their line-up over there is so damned good for this Q3.
Second place is Europe, because the change euro/yen is not as bad as for dollar/yen an this could also explain why NoA looks way less active in localization than NoE. Though is just a guess, it is based on the refusing to believe that some decisions (like localization) comes from the incompetence of NoA. I believe they simply do what the order in Japan. Period.

 

[legend166]

If I were Nintendo, and mind you this is a purely business-driven decision, the fire lit under my ass would result in waaaaaay more Japanese-only games meant to appeal solely to Japan.

They can't do shit about the weak dollar and euro and only the Stonecutters can do something about the pound, so if Nintendo were the type of company that would go "Fuck it, our fans can deal without 1/3rd of our output until the dollar and the euro stop sucking," then that would be the "fire" I'd expect.

Alternatively, and this might not make any sense because I don't really know what I'm talking about - but could they launch NoA and NoE as full fledged subsidiaries rather than divisions?

Would that have any impact on the currency situation?

 

[Medalion]

I'm actually a little concerned about what Skyward Sword shows about Nintendo's current developmental output limitations. Not so much about the title itself, but that a single major Wii game really seemed to throttle their output for a very long period. It's only going to get worse on an HD platform.

Nintendo has been readying the deployment of the 3DS and Wii-U their resources are spread pretty thin and yet still have time to work on Skyward Sword and Mario Galaxy games

 

[AniHawk]

3ds will probably meet their forecast. 3m in each region for the next six months won't be hard to do, even if it means stuffing the channels in q4.

i think it came at the expense of the nds though. judging how much hardware was cut compared to software, i think they're intentionally killing the device in the western side of the world instead of selling it as a cheaper option for a while (like sony did/is doing with the ps2).

 

[ThatObviousUser]

I'm actually a little concerned about what Skyward Sword shows about Nintendo's current developmental output limitations. Not so much about the title itself, but that a single major Wii game really seemed to throttle their output for a very long period. It's only going to get worse on an HD platform.

I doubt this was caused by SS. If anything, I think it's them prepping and gearing up for HD development, which while still isn't absolutely insanely costly like at the start of this gen, is still a bitter pill to swallow for a developer that has only done SD and under until now.

I'm not saying Nintendo can't do HD or that they're ill-prepared, but that it affects every developer, major and minor. And that effect can't be shrugged off.

 

[Erethian]

I'm actually a little concerned about what Skyward Sword shows about Nintendo's current developmental output limitations. Not so much about the title itself, but that a single major Wii game really seemed to throttle their output for a very long period. It's only going to get worse on an HD platform.

How did it throttle their output?

 

[mdtauk]

Never mind...

 

[cajunator]

I'm pretty sure some of this is caused by RandD for WiiU. How much nobody knows of course. the rest I have no idea. Do they lose money on 3DS?

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Only because it was another price-drop rush, most retailers in the UK had it for a INSANE £105 for the price-drop week, it was flying off the shelves, i couldn't see one anywhere by day 3.
Now, its back on the NDS shelf, looking like a 3D version of an old handheld everyone already has, retailers just don't seem excited by it and don't push the thing as much as they should.
This christmas will be the key to its survival.

What I don't understand is why NoE - speaking only from experience of seeing this in the UK, but it's perhaps a worldwide issue - are allowing this to happen. Why is the 3DS software mixed in with DS software on shelves, and why is there never a separate 3DS section in any shop I go into?

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

Whodathunkit? The 3DS met its software and hardware forecast afterall! (in fact it surpassed it by quite a bit!)

Very good attach rate too! (2.6 games per 3DS. For comparison's sake, the DS' attach rate after around 4-5 months on the shelves was 1.99 games per console - and that's with a holiday season in hand as well!)

Its the lowest price i've ever seen for a new handheld, its crazy low already.
Its the software prices that need to change, having them the same as home console games is just laughable.
Its not lack of hardware sales that kills a system, its lack of software sales that will do it in.

He means the manufacturing costs of the 3DS and yes he's right, that's the biggest problem they are facing right now (aside from the exchange rate, which is largely unavoidable) since they're making a loss on each 3DS hardware sale.

I'm pretty sure some of this is caused by RandD for WiiU. How much nobody knows of course. the rest I have no idea. Do they lose money on 3DS?

Ok, just to empahasis this point. NINTENDO ARE MAKING A LOSS ON EACH 3DS SOLD SINCE THE PRICE DROP

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Nintendo has been readying the deployment of the 3DS and Wii-U their resources are spread pretty thin and yet still have time to work on Skyward Sword and Mario Galaxy games

It was dumb of them to (plan to) launch two systems a year apart.

They were probably between a rock and a hard place, but it was still a move with a lot of negatives.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

This is ultimately part of the problem, because there's nothing they can do within the next year to prevent those losses.

Iwata might just need to admit that. He might have to go up there, sell his case that this is about more than 2012, and hope they don't boo him off the stage, even if they believe him.

Do we know when 3DS is going to be profitable as hardware, approximately? I mean: if the handheld can already become profitable during early 2012, I think that most problems will be solved.

After all, let's think for a moment: Nintendo has two big problems now. The foreign exchange losses, which cannot be solved by any company, if not to try sell more in the domestic market, and the losses generated by 3DS itself, which is an unusual situation for Nintendo, since they always sold every system with profits (excluding the first months for the GC). If Iwata dropped the price so massively without knowing that the handheld anyway would have became profitable in a relatively short amount of time, then we can affirm that it was a big mistake.

 

[jonno394]

Nintendo in their re-forecast still expect to sell 16 million 3DS units by teh end of the financial year, do people think they are over reaching, just under 10 million between now and April?

 

[Knux-Future]

What if they announce Pokemon Gray exsculsively for the 3DS and it uses the 3d models from the pokedex?

Wouldn't that be a megaton?

or Smash Bros.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Nintendo in their re-forecast still expect to sell 16 million 3DS units by teh end of the financial year, do people think they are over reaching, just under 10 million between now and April?

It might require some midnight-hour channel stuffing, but it's definitely doable.

 

[Erethian]

Do we know when 3DS is going to be profitable as hardware, approximately? I mean: if the handheld can already become profitable during early 2012, I think that most problems will be solved.

After all, let's think for a moment: Nintendo has two big problems now. The foreign exchange losses, which cannot be solved by any company, if not to try sell more in the domestic market, and the losses generated by 3DS itself, which is an unusual situation for Nintendo, since they always sold every system with profits (excluding the first months for the GC). If Iwata dropped the price so massively without knowing that the handheld anyway would have became profitable in a relatively short amount of time, then we can affirm that it was a big mistake.

From the comments Iwata made when they cut the price of the 3DS, they expect to be making a profit on each unit sold relatively soon.

That the price cut came so early in the lifecycle of the system meant that economies of scale hadn't begun to fully factor into manufacturing costs.