Support NeoGAF

[AniHawk]

10 million more Wii's over Christmas? Really, Nintendo?

no- 7.65m more wiis from october through march.

 

[m.i.s.]

I reckon if Nintendo could rewind back to the beginning of 2010 they'd do this:

- Put the Wii U in the pipeline to launch November 2011.

- Put the 3DS in the pipeline to launch November 2012.

I still think it was completely silly to launch the 3DS so early. A $99 DSi would have been pretty massive this Christmas I think.

Both excellent points [in theory]. I think Nintendo got tempted with the low hanging 3D fruit.

 

[wsippel]

I reckon if Nintendo could rewind back to the beginning of 2010 they'd do this:

- Put the Wii U in the pipeline to launch November 2011.

- Put the 3DS in the pipeline to launch November 2012.

I still think it was completely silly to launch the 3DS so early. A $99 DSi would have been pretty massive this Christmas I think.

Agreed.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

no- 7.65m more wiis from october through march.

8.65m, assuming about 1.5m for Q4 that leaves over 7m shipped over the holiday season. It's a big ask. I don't think PS3 will get there and that is easily the strongest console this holiday.

 

[Red UFO]

no- 7.65m more wiis from october through march.

Don't you mean 8.65?

Even then, I think they are being hopeful.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

November 2012 for 3DS? Really?

That would have put it a full year after the release of the Vita, giving Sony a holiday launch in Japan and the best part of a year in all other territories as well. Would that have been a price worth paying?

 

[linko9]

Wow, 3ds has sold a lot more than I thought... this "3DS is a failure" talk that pervades the gaming media is getting really obnoxious.

 

[AniHawk]

Don't you mean 8.65?

yes. i mistakenly read the original nds forecast as the new wii forecast for some reason.

i don't think they'll have much of a problem doing it. they'll probably stuff the channels with consoles or be off by a million or so.

 

[ASIS]

So how bad are the results? ranging from 1-10 (1 being absolutely abysmal, 10 being just fine).

 

[walking fiend]

So how bad are the results? ranging from 1-10 (1 being absolutely abysmal, 10 being just fine).

8.8/10

 

[Throwaway123456789]

3DS after Q3 has sold more than DS after it's third Q.

BOMBA!

 

[frankie_baby]

I reckon if Nintendo could rewind back to the beginning of 2010 they'd do this:

- Put the Wii U in the pipeline to launch November 2011.

- Put the 3DS in the pipeline to launch November 2012.

I still think it was completely silly to launch the 3DS so early. A $99 DSi would have been pretty massive this Christmas I think.

The 3ds was clearly released earlier than it needed to be, though nintendo had 2 valid reasons for doing so firstly I think they believed the psp successor was coming sooner than it did and second ds software sales were starting to collapse probably due to piracy

 

[Übermatik]

So how bad are the results? ranging from 1-10 (1 being absolutely abysmal, 10 being just fine).

7.8

Not too worrying, but shows a significant decline in sakes and popularity. It's only newsworthy because of the failure of the 3DS so far. The Wii's sales are expected - it's on it's way out.

 

[StreetsAhead]

3DS was released Q4 to boost last years sales/profits. Hence the 4m hardware target.

 

[iceatcs]

Don't worry guys. Tomorrow will save Nintendo.

Spoiler

lol

 

[DMeisterJ]

The comparisons between the DS and 3DS are going to be much more interesting when we reach the point of the DS Lite since the 3DS is only managing to keep up with the sales during the slow period of the DS. Being the successor to that is going to unfortunately have it be compared to it's predecessor and that's not going to look pretty in a few quarters. While the system should do fine for itself, it's always going to live in the shadow of it's older brother.

 

[ASIS]

7.8

Not too worrying, but shows a significant decline in sakes and popularity. It's only newsworthy because of the failure of the 3DS so far. The Wii's sales are expected - it's on it's way out.

I thought the 3DS was doing fine.

 

[Celine]

The comparisons between the DS and 3DS are going to be much more interesting when we reach the point of the DS Lite since the 3DS is only managing to keep up with the sales during the slow period of the DS. Being the successor to that is going to unfortunately have it be compared to it's predecessor and that's not going to look pretty in a few quarters. While the system should do fine for itself, it's always going to live in the shadow of it's older brother.

To be fair DS was launched in the holiday period in NA and Jpn while 3DS was launched in NA,Jpn and EU in the slow period of the year.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

I thought the 3DS was doing fine.

3DS is only doing fine in as far as it's keeping pace with its predecessor after a $80 price drop in the first 6 months of its existence. It should do well over the holiday season though as the DS fades away and some heavy hitters finally launch.

 

[AdventureRacing]

To be fair DS was launched in the holiday period in NA and Jpn while 3DS was launched in NA,Jpn and EU in the slow period of the year.

Yeah the holiday season should see it keep up for a while. That plus the 3DS's first big hitting software will be releasing pretty soon.

 

[maabus1999]

Weren't analysts predicting a $1.3 billion dollar loss btw? It ended up being a $263 million dollar loss. Nikkei was WAY off with their projections.

You're screwing up currencies in your numbers. Analysts were dead on when you factor out tax credits.

 

[The Technomancer]

Glad to hear the losses weren't quite as huge as predicted.

...Also, the 3DS sold MORE units in the same length of time than the DS at that stage in its life, even without the critical October-December block. Why is it a doomed failure of a system again?

Something something iOS something

 

[Starwolf_UK]

Looking at page 7 (2). The decrease in net sales is consistent in Japan and Europe. In America it is much larger. Bubut Strong Yen only goes so far as a defence and part of the impact has to be NOA.

Shame we don't get a colour breakdown of 3DS hardware as I'm interested how much of those were Red.

As for the DS death worldwide. What were the GBA+DS sales for this epoch of the 3DS life? What are the 3DS+DS sales? My rose tinted glasses make me recall that the GBA had a life once the 3DS came out while the DS has all but dried up. IIRC, Kirby Mass Attack has been the only game in Japan since 3DS launch.

Then again the DS had a far longer life than the GBA...so comparing 2005 GBA to 2011 DS isn't totally fair.

 

[maabus1999]

OK things to take from those results. Firstly they have basically lost money from revaluing their foreign assets to take into account strong Yen. This is basically shipped console units sitting in warehouses unsold in the US and PAL regions. Now they are writing down a bunch of that inventory to take into account the lower than expected revenue from sales.

For the first time ever, Nintendo are going to make FY loss. Of about $260m going by their own currency forecasts. That's big news.

The 3DS sold well, 3.07m for the quarter with no software is a good result, but the downgrade to the software forecast is bad because it looks like they are already losing money on the units. More positive is that they have kept the hardware forecast at 16m and Sony are having trouble now with Vita costs (see compulsory expensive memory cards) so the competition is weaker than expected and won't price as aggressively as previously thought. The $169 price is here to stay, possibly until late 2013. With higher priced competition and lower DS sales Nintendo need the 3DS to pick up the slack. In Japan it looks like they have done what was needed and paid the right amount of bribe money to Capcom for MH. In the west Mario needs to work his magic.

Onto the Wii. It's really in a pitiful state right now, the one time king is reduced to 12m a year at its lowest price ever. Without Zelda I expect that forecast would be even lower. With the WiiU launch in the next financial year they aren't in a position to cut prices here either which means the Wii is likely to remain at its current prices until early 2013 at least so sales will drop off very quickly like we have seen with DS. That is probably a good thing because Nintendo have never really been good at supporting more than two platforms at a time. Even so, I think the Wii will reach about 105m shipped and be relegated to developing nations like PS2 or withdrawn completely.

Question is if Zelda will be too late in the Wii's lifecycle to make a huge impact a la Final Fantasy XII.

 

[marc^o^]

3DS is only doing fine in as far as it's keeping pace with its predecessor after a $80 price drop in the first 6 months of its existence. It should do well over the holiday season though as the DS fades away and some heavy hitters finally launch.

Do we know how 3DS fares compared to x360 and PS3 in terms of overall sales since its launch? I would assume it's the best selling machine, of all consoles.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

Problem of 3DS is that right now the more it sells, the worse is financially. Objective is of course the catalyzing of the software and considering it's an handheld, the impact will not be enough to absorb the losses generated by the drop of DS, but mostly of the Wii.

What I'm seriously pissed off is that Wii lasted even too much considering its incredibly weak line-up of last months. Why was Nintendo so short-sighted to miss the end of the home system for me it's a mistery. I think it is possible we are seeing now the limits of Iwata as businessman, since he actually is a developer. Till now it worked very well, but as soon as the weather change to the bad, I have the impression he's not so able to drive the boat on the other side.

Well, maybe it's just me.

 

[DarkWish]

So if the investor briefing is tomorrow... do we know what time that is? I'm wondering if we'll hear about it tonight in the US if it's during the day tomorrow in Japan.

 

[wrowa]

Doesn't help that 3rd parties didn't deliver on their promises, or it would have games like Batman, Assassin's Creed and Saint's Row by the end of the year.

There's a nice way to keep 3rd parties on their promises: Money.

But apparently Nintendo thinks deals for Japanese-focused games are much more important than deals for games that also appeal strongly to other audiences. Sometimes it seems like Nintendo still lives in a world where only Japanese games matter...

7.8

Not too worrying, but shows a significant decline in sakes and popularity. It's only newsworthy because of the failure of the 3DS so far. The Wii's sales are expected - it's on it's way out.

3DS sales during this quarter were just fine, it's definitely not a "failure". Not a striking success by any means, but it's doing alright.

Question is if Zelda will be too late in the Wii's lifecycle to make a huge impact a la Final Fantasy XII.

I expect Skyward Sword to be one the least successful Zelda games, to be quite honest.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Problem of 3DS is that right now the more it sells, the worse is financially. Objective is of course the catalyzing of the software and considering it's an handheld, the impact will not be enough to absorb the losses generated by the drop of DS, but mostly of the Wii.

If I understood his comments in the last investor meeting correctly, Iwata is saying that manufacturing costs should drop as hardware sales pick up. So, losses on hardware - whatever they are at the moment - should be mitigated or cancelled out as they see cost reductions from increased sales and increased production.

 

[RurouniZel]

So... I'm confused. I heard they lost 100 billion yesterday, but looking at these numbers it's really 72 billion. I mean, that's still a fuckton, but maybe a slightly less fuckton. And again, the exchange rate accounted for 52.4 billion of that? Holy fucking shitballs.

Did Sony announce their fiscals yet? Will they end up with similar results, or will they be better off with the PSP selling so well domestically?

 

[vitacola]

Dear business administration people, please tell me:

Is this a real loss or just not as much profit as they expected?
I just can't think of a possibility how Big N could lose 100M€. They still don't subsidise any hardware, don't they? Even after the price cut the 3DS should still make profit.

 

[Throwaway123456789]

Dear business administration people, please tell me:

Is this a real loss or just not as much profit as they expected?
I just can't think of a possibility how Big N could lose 100M€. They still don't subsidise any hardware, don't they? Even after the price cut the 3DS should still make profit.

It's 70 billion yen lost, most of which is due to the strong yen over the euro and dollar.

 

[Road]

Weren't analysts predicting a $1.3 billion dollar loss btw? It ended up being a $263 million dollar loss. Nikkei was WAY off with their projections.

It has been explained, but again, with pictures (because I know someone else will think like you):

Nikkei said: ¥100 billion yen loss on "ordinary income".

Actual result: ¥108 billion loss.

There are other incomes, but it wasn't about those Nikkei was talking.

 

[Elios83]

Dear business administration people, please tell me:

Is this a real loss or just not as much profit as they expected?
I just can't think of a possibility how Big N could lose 100M€. They still don't subsidise any hardware, don't they? Even after the price cut the 3DS should still make profit.

It's a real loss.
Their marings on hardware have been eroded because of price cuts, strong yen means that 3DS could be sold at loss in the US.
For the same reason they get less money from games sold in the us and europe when their revenues are converted to yen.
Then you have all the internal costs, R&D, game development, marketing....and they made a loss.

 

[thefro]

Question is if Zelda will be too late in the Wii's lifecycle to make a huge impact a la Final Fantasy XII.

I think everyone who likes console Zelda games probably already bought a Wii. Might be a few stragglers who jump in now but the Just Dance games will have a much bigger impact.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I notice a few flubs in their hardware shipment reports.

3DS shipments don't list Europe/Other, but does list the Americas for this quarter and the Americas for last quarter. By taking worldwide and subtracting Japan and the Americas, though, we can see Europe should be at 2.42 million--still the #1 region.

Wii shipments show no change for the Americas since last quarter, but the regional totals don't add up to the worldwide total. So I think the Americas should properly be at 42.44 million.

Don't you mean 8.65?

Even then, I think they are being hopeful.

In the same period the previous year they shipped 10.11 million, so it is a down forecast (-14%). Not as much as the first half was down, though (-33%).

3DS after Q3 has sold more than DS after it's third Q.

BOMBA!

Ha, sure enough. Though GBA putting them both to shame early on.

Do we know how 3DS fares compared to x360 and PS3 in terms of overall sales since its launch? I would assume it's the best selling machine, of all consoles.

Looks like 3DS has shipped more than they did through 4 quarters.

 

[The Technomancer]

Looks like 3DS has shipped more than they did through 4 quarters.

Will be saving this graph for future threads

 

[F#A#Oo]

Nintendo will be fine...

 

[Scum]

Damn! That's got to hurt. :-(
But Nintendo having to sort themselves out is always the best Nintendo to have around. Maybe Old Man Yamauchi will drop some helpful hints to Iwata on what he can and can't do to help...

...or maybe he'll be told to dip into the war chest to alleviate the problem a tad bit. If Iwata can, that is...

 

[m.i.s.]

I expect Skyward Sword to be one the least successful Zelda games, to be quite honest.

I wonder if this'll prove to be one of those Gaf moments where the commercial success of a game is inverse to a gaffers prediction?

It's, also, not like Wii owners are exactly spoilt for choice right now.

 

[marc^o^]

Confirmation 3DS is the best selling machine WW since launch, already by a nice margin and its lead will increase dramatically during holidays.

 

[ollin]

Nintendo will be fine...

 

[DXB-KNIGHT]

Damn! That's got to hurt. :-(
But Nintendo having to sort themselves out is always the best Nintendo to have around. Maybe Old Man Yamauchi will drop some helpful hints to Iwata on what he can and can't do to help...

...or maybe he'll be told to dip into the war chest to alleviate the problem a tad bit. If Iwata can, that is...

Hiroshi Yamauchi: Welcome, my friends. You may ask any three questions.
Investors: Are you really the chairman of Nintendo?
Yamauchi: Yes.
Investors: Really?
Yamauchi: Yes.
Investors: Really?
Yamauchi: Yes. Thank you, come again.
Iwata: But --
Yamauchi: Thank you, come again.
Investors: Well, _that_ was a big bust. Is he _really_ the the chairman of Nintendo?
Iwata: [growls, reaches towards the Investors]

 

[m.i.s.]

Nintendo will be fine...

Why bother troubling ourselves with facts and figures and analysis eh?

)

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Nintendo needs to make more original, big, casual IPs, they sort of stopped after WiiMusic and it's killed the Wii.

 

[theBishop]

This should cause Nintendo to do something crazy awesome.

Full Voice?

 

[Celine]

Hiroshi Yamauchi: Welcome, my friends. You may ask any three questions.
Investors: Are you really the chairman of Nintendo?
Yamauchi: Yes.
Investors: Really?
Yamauchi: Yes.
Investors: Really?
Yamauchi: Yes. Thank you, come again.
Iwata: But --
Yamauchi: Thank you, come again.
Investors: Well, _that_ was a big bust. Is he _really_ the the chairman of Nintendo?
Iwata: [growls, reaches towards the Investors]

Yamauchi is really that awesome

Spoiler

and feared.

 

[Kazerei]

There's a nice way to keep 3rd parties on their promises: Money.

But apparently Nintendo thinks deals for Japanese-focused games are much more important than deals for games that also appeal strongly to other audiences. Sometimes it seems like Nintendo still lives in a world where only Japanese games matter...

Not surprising considering our money isn't worth much to them

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Will be saving this graph for future threads

In context, the 360 was supply constrained its first 6 months, and the PS3 launch was universally considered a disaster. Again Nintendo is only meeting their expectations now because of an $80 drop, the 3DS launch period was a mediocre at best before that point.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Sales-wise Nintendo's "only" problem are the American and European markets. The 3DS is doing great numbers in Japan already, and it will continue to do so -- and that's first and foremost due to an excellent upcoming line-up of games.

And I think that's where Nintendo dropped the ball. While the 3DS has a fantastic game line-up for the end of the year in Japan, it's situation in the other countries looks noticably worse. There's not a single strong 3rd party game on its way this year, and everything depends on Mario 3D Land and Mario Kart. I don't know if two games are enough to give 3DS sales a longer-lasting boost. Especially not if both games are from the same franchise, however strong that franchise might be...

Sonic Generations will be reasonably big in NA/EU I think. Especially given it's the only "Nintendo version" available. LEGO Harry Potter and Pokemon Rumble Blast will probably be solid sellers too, though I do agree the western lineups stink compared to the Japan streamroller of a schedule.