NPD Sales Results for April 2016 [Sony, MS, & Nintendo refuse to comment on hardware]

Dollar share trend of US physical by genre. Can't give numbers.



I am surprised by Shooter strength in 2015. I hadn't looked at this in a while and was assuming 2014 gap would hold. I was wrong. In 2015, about 3/4 of all shooter sales were for FPS.

For top-selling games by genre, the top 3 selling Fighters of the console gen in Units are MKX, Smash, UFC. For Racing it's Kart, NFS Rivals, Forza 5.
With this year having Overwatch, mainline Battlefield, Doom, and Titanfall on top of Call of Duty, I wonder if shooters can contend Action Adventure games.

What's even in the other category this year? There's Watch Dogs 2, Mafia 3, Dishonored 2 (would this be counted as a shooter?), Uncharted 4, and... Maybe Ghost Recon if that hits this year and isn't counted as a shooter.

It might matter what bucket The Division ends up in as well since it could easily be shooter, action/adventure, or RPG.

Also I had totally forgotten about Need For Speed. That's also a great example of a franchise decline given NFS (2015) isn't #3.
 
Feb 16, 2010
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It might matter what bucket The Division ends up in as well since it could easily be shooter, action/adventure, or RPG.

Also I had totally forgotten about Need For Speed. That's also a great example of a franchise decline given NFS (2015) isn't #3.
The Division is a Shooter. Watch_Dogs is Action. Insert internet shrug guy.

On the rankings, that's life to date. Some titles have more months in market than others, which makes the comparison tough. Not saying that would or would not change the rankings, it's just really hard to compare releases of a franchise within a generation by only the life to date figures. Not really fair.
 
The Division is a Shooter. Watch_Dogs is Action. Insert internet shrug guy.

On the rankings, that's life to date. Some titles have more months in market than others, which makes the comparison tough. Not saying that would or would not change the rankings, it's just really hard to compare releases of a franchise within a generation by only the life to date figures. Not really fair.
If The Division is a shooter, I think that genre has got it in the bag this year.

The LTD note is true, though at one point NFS was pushing 5+ million shipped in its first quarter, so it would have beaten Forza up front in its old stature unless Forza is doing way better LTD than I remember it doing.

I think Hot Pursuit 2010 was like 1.3 million in its first two months alone.
 
Nov 17, 2011
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No... I'm talking about ALL OF IT. Anyone that cares that much. On any side. It's ALL madness..
People who obsessively care about videogames sales?
Selling video games is my daily work but these NPD thread are not "better" (less crazy) than the other. Just replace those numbers, sales predictions, exotic sales analysis and "leaked" numbers" by the other number (teraflipflapflop and all).

You know, it's like looking at your right arm and saying :" yeah, this arm is better than my left arm".

It's still gaf.
 
Sep 29, 2013
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I think he has a small point, Imo I think SFIVs impact for fighting games outside the hardcore us a bit exaggerated. However I wouldn't argue it did nothing unlike racecar.

The real debate is why FPS is still the most popular genre after 8 years of oversaturation last gen


I mean, FPS games aren't a bad thing but it's clearly blocking the way of others genres, especially for some companies that shouldn't be making them.

I mean at this point it's been an 11 year race to the bottom. Even Blizzard is doing it now. How many of these fps even had passable sales let alone successes? It's like no one learned there lesson.
There are quicker ways to say you don't like Call of Battlefield Shootbang XV and no-one will think less of you for it.
 
Jul 7, 2015
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Apr 21, 2015
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Hmm given those Uncharted numbers it's possible it sells less than Uncharted 3 in NPD. It's not performing significantly ahead of 3 overall and digital share is stronger now than when 3 launched.

It will still probably be over it but it will be close.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
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Hmm given those Uncharted numbers it's possible it sells less than Uncharted 3 in NPD. It's not performing significantly ahead of 3 overall and digital share is stronger now than when 3 launched.

It will still probably be over it but it will be close.
I'm not following. Based on what metrics? The 3.8mm shipped day 1 for uc3?

The game has launched significantly bigger everywhere globally so either it's really down in the US at retail or you're off somewhere.
 
Apr 21, 2015
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Hu? In UK first week it was 66% bigger than Uncharted 3, and in Spain almost double... At retail, so digital is not counted.
That 2.7 million figure includes digital. Uncharted 3 shipped 3.8 million global first week Uncharted 4 sell through is 2.7 including digital. Question is was Uncharted 3 over shipped at launch or is there more than 1.1 million copies on shelves right now? I'm guessing probably so maybe 2 million on store shelves there about but there shouldn't be much more than that.

If it's over performing by those percentages in other markets it means somewhere else it's not or it would be further ahead of UC3. Im guessing the US is where it not as strong proportionately

Edit - hamm that 2.7 is closer to 3 then I was giving it credit so there should be over 2 million on shelves it will likely be closer to a 50% Or so sell through so there should be another 2.5 - 3 million on shelves
 
Feb 24, 2014
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Would Sony specify the different regions for when they track the first week? Sounds like they are lumping all of WW sales together for the first seven days (May 10 to May 16), and not the first 5 days up to Saturday and then to Monday for Japan.
 
Sep 27, 2013
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That 2.7 million figure includes digital. Uncharted 3 shipped 3.8 million global first week Uncharted 4 sell through is 2.7 including digital. Question is was Uncharted 3 over shipped at launch or is there more than 1.1 million copies on shelves right now? I'm guessing probably so maybe 2 million on store shelves there about but there shouldn't be much more than that.

If it's over performing by those percentages in other markets it means somewhere else it's not or it would be further ahead of UC3. Im guessing the US is where it not as strong proportionately
This reads like you are only presenting half your argument...

ps3ud0 8)
 
Jul 7, 2015
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That 2.7 million figure includes digital. Uncharted 3 shipped 3.8 million global first week Uncharted 4 sell through is 2.7 including digital. Question is was Uncharted 3 over shipped at launch or is there more than 1.1 million copies on shelves right now? I'm guessing probably so maybe 2 million on store shelves there about but there shouldn't be much more than that.

If it's over performing by those percentages in other markets it means somewhere else it's not or it would be further ahead of UC3. Im guessing the US is where it not as strong proportionately
Mario Maker sold 1 million first month, and Nintendo shipped 1.88 million first month.

Just an example of how a game can be overshipped...

We have UK, Spain, Japan, and US numbers for Uncharted 3, and with first week of Spain+Japan+UK and USA first month, Uncharted 3 is just under 1.15 million sold... It was insanity overshipped, that's a fact. Uncharted 4 sold a lot better.
 
Aug 4, 2012
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I don't think they said best launch for uncharted series so that kinda says that it may not have beat uncharted 3 launch. I am not going to lie but I expected more. Let's see if it beats uncharted 3 launch npd numbers which was 700k if I remember correctly.

Don't get me wrong, these are great numbers but I was expecting it to outperform the previous entries by a bigger margin. It will be touch and go on whether it will beat halo 5 launch npd as well which is what I predicted
 
Apr 21, 2015
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We have UK, Spain, Japan, and US numbers for Uncharted 3, and with first week of Spain+Japan+UK and USA first month, Uncharted 3 is just under 1.15 million sold... It was insanity overshipped, that's a fact.
Ahhh see I wasn't aware UC3 was that over shipped. So it likely only had around a 33% sell through at launch. That changes things entirely then I thought it sold through better.

So UC4 should be over 1 million NPD unless digital is really really strong for it.
 
Dec 6, 2012
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That's already almost 400k, so everywhere else sold a combined 2.3m, and that doesn't factor digital, which would >20% (should we start using 25%/30%?)
25% could be a good guess for revenue in my opinion. 675k copies sold through PSN seems too high.

@Sense 2.7 is sold through. 3,8 Ml for Uncharted 3 was shipped. U4 is selling way better in some countries.
 
Jul 7, 2015
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I am not going to lie but I expected more. Let's see if it beats uncharted 3 launch npd numbers which was 700k if I remember correctly.
If we include bundle, Uncharted 3 sold 838,000 first month.

Ahhh see I wasn't aware UC3 was that over shipped. So it likely only had around a 33% sell through at launch. That changes things entirely then I thought it sold through better.

So UC4 should be over 1 million NPD unless digital is really really strong for it.
We will see, but so far Uncharted 4 has sold a lot better than Umcharted 3 in all countries.

If it won't beat Uncharted 3 first month, i will be honestly shocked, yes even at retail.
 
Apr 21, 2015
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1 million is probably the baseline now for UC4 in NPD looking at it more. With territories we have that puts it at about 400k and it likely globally is between 500k - 600k through PSN. Don't see it doing sub 1 million

If it won't beat Uncharted 3 first month, i will be honestly shocked, yes even at retail.
It will beat it. I wasn't aware of how poor UC3 sell through was that's what fudged my analysis
 
Feb 18, 2014
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1 million is probably the baseline now for UC4 in NPD looking at it more. With territories we have that puts it at about 400k and it likely globally is between 500k - 600k through PSN. Don't see it doing sub 1 million



It will beat it. I wasn't aware of how poor UC3 sell through was that's what fudged my analysis
I'm not sure, i dont think 1m is a base its an achievable milestone (just), say they have an 80% drop each week (UK was 78% drop week 2) that means they would sell in 3.3m, less 20% digital = circa 2.7m, NPD would have to account for 37% of WW physical sales to hit 1m, i think its touch and go it hits a million.
 
Feb 24, 2014
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With this news, I think Uncharted 4 will sell ~1m (could be below it, I'm giving this a +-10k) in May's NPD and will be the 2nd best debut for a first party Sony title. God of War 3 will retain its throne.
 
Apr 21, 2015
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I'm not sure, i dont think 1m is a base its an achievable milestone (just), say they have an 80% drop each week (UK was 78% drop week 2) that means they would sell in 3.3m, less 20% digital = circa 2.7m, NPD would have to account for 37% of WW physical sales to hit 1m, i think its touch and go it hits a million.
Hmm, interesting. Nice little breakdown there.

With this news, I think Uncharted 4 will sell ~1m in May's NPD and will be the 2nd best debut for a first party Sony title. God of War 3 will retain its throne.
Yeah 1 million is kind of spot on what I predict here. I'm not sure it will be hugely above that but I'll be somewhat surprised if its below. ~1m seems to be a pretty solid call. Also notice Sony said its the best launch of a PS4 title not Sony brand in general so it looks like GOW3 will still have the edge over it yeah. What did that launch at again?
 
Jun 15, 2015
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If you want proof of SFIV's effect in the genre you can look at average sales of games in the genre before and after its release. It's night and day. You can also look at the viewership and participation levels for pro competitive fighting games pre and post SFIV release and you'll see a sharp incline following the release of the game.
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Newsflash, fighting game EVO community isn't mainstream hellooo.

Look at sales of even just the biggish franchises before SFIV (and in the same year) and after. The sales "DROP" for a lot of them. SSFIV proved that it was mostly nostalgia along with inflated hype looking at it's sales. No fighting game franchises got "more popular" outside a few. The genre is actually more niche now overall even though we got some interesting releases like KI and divekick.

Also your MK thing is just nonsense, they returned to 2D because fans wanted it, they discussed it. No interview with Ed Boon or higher ups say anything about SFIV and say exactly what I said: http://www.shacknews.com/article/66188/mortal-kombat-interview-ed-boon

Some off hand guy may have spat something in a blog or twitter, or maybe you mis read it, but they had been talking about 2D gameplay MK since the released of Vs. DC, which was a best seller, and was neck and neck with SFIV vanilla for a bit. SF had zero impact on MK, MK sold buy itself, and this has been proven with MK 9, Injustice, a departure from MK, and MKX. In fact, MKX seems to be the only fighter actually selling currently.

I mean look at games like DOA, GG, Fight Night*, SC, Tekken, etc. All fell, heck, I wager Naruto and GG fell as well(I count BB in that)

I mean you could say it's success influenced some fighters to put out some more games that all flopped but I mean that's not much of an impact is it?
 
Jul 7, 2015
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Unless Uncharted 3 was massive overshipped, U4 number is not that great relatively speaking

Read my last comment.


Mario Maker sold 1 million first month, and Nintendo shipped 1.88 million first month.

Just an example of how a game can be overshipped...

We have UK, Spain, Japan, and US numbers for Uncharted 3, and with first week of Spain+Japan+UK and USA first month, Uncharted 3 is just under 1.15 million sold... It was insanity overshipped, that's a fact. Uncharted 4 sold a lot better.