NPD Sales Results for May 2015

Jun 13, 2012
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Yeah, something fishy is going on here lately.

So damn good seeing Splatoon in the monthly Amazon Top10 charts :)
Lately?

Astroturf marketing is pervasive because it is cheap and effective. They concentrate on forums and comment sections and user reviews because it is easy to stay hidden and one guy with the appropriate software can mange 100+ identities easily. Customers of these services include giant corporations like Samsung and Microsoft; individuals like Bill Gates and Sheldon Adelson; and entities like the US military and Russian psyops.

So if you feel manipulated, it is because you are.
 
May 23, 2013
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Lately?

Astroturf marketing is pervasive because it is cheap and effective. They concentrate on forums and comment sections and user reviews because it is easy to stay hidden and one guy with the appropriate software can mange 100+ identities easily. Customers of these services include giant corporations like Samsung and Microsoft; individuals like Bill Gates and Sheldon Adelson; and entities like the US military and Russian psyops.

So if you feel manipulated, it is because you are.
Bro you are absolutely right. i dont't
Understand why they even bother.
You know what i mean? i heard the guys at
Xerox have been doing their own astroturfing.
But it's nowhere near as bad as those who post
On here and try to push their agenda.
Xerox and the others need to stop.
 
Well that's not happening.

In fact, if someone is willing to re-size that picture, I swear to use it as my avatar for a month if it even enters top 10.
Well, the NPDs are not here yet.

This million announcement is a minor setback, but I am sure I will end up victorious.
Splatoon sold 136K physical retail last month. Let's be generous and assume a 25% digital rate. So that's 170K physical + digital in total.

So far, the June 2015 NPD Reporting Month still has a few weeks to go, and Splatoon has already sold 476K physical + digital.

Nintendo's press release states the following:

REDMOND, Wash.–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Nintendo has hauled up its nets, tallied its catch and crossed another milestone. Sales of Splatoon, the new squid-based game for Nintendo’s Wii U home console, have crossed 1 million worldwide, according to Nintendo’s internal figures. That figure includes more than 476,000 physical and digital units sold in the Americas, more than 368,000 sold in Japan, more than 230,000 sold in Europe and an additional 20,000 sold in Australia and New Zealand.​

This wording leads me to believe that Nintendo is estimating sell-through, not counting shipped physical + sell-through digital.

Let's assume 10% of those 476K are from Canada, so the total physical + digital USA sell-through is 428K.

If that's the case, then Nintendo sold-through an extra 258K physical + digital copies of Splatoon (428K - 170K) in June, or an extra 193K physical assuming a 25% digital rate. And, there are still two weeks left in the reporting period.


That should be more than enough to put Splatoon in the Top 10. Last June, Tomodachi Life sold 137K and took the #9 spot in the Top 10, for example. That may even be enough for the Top 5.
 
Don't you think thats a bit of a large assumption? Regarding canada and Digital sell through percentage.

I mean I see where you're coming from but it's hardly an accurate way of assessing how many physical copies have been sold In the US so far this month.
Canada as 10% of total Americas sell-through is a pretty standard assumption. GAFfers have been using that assumption for many years.

And 25% is not unreasonable assuming that Splatoon benefited from a high digital adoption through the "Testfire" demo + large eShop promotion + lots of core gamers gravitating towards a digital library.

It's generous, sure, but I deliberately skewed it a bit higher to prove a point. Not to mention, at times we've seen ~25% digital rates with other Nintendo games in the past. So it's not completely unprecedented.
 
Aug 21, 2013
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Canada as 10% of total Americas sell-through is a pretty standard assumption. GAFfers have been using that assumption for many years.

And 25% is not unreasonable assuming that Splatoon benefited from a high digital adoption through the "Testfire" demo + large eShop promotion + lots of core gamers gravitating towards a digital library.

It's generous, sure, but I deliberately skewed it a bit higher to prove a point. Not to mention, at times we've seen ~25% digital rates with other Nintendo games in the past. So it's not completely unprecedented.
fwiw I think the testfire eshop discount was only for Europe
 
May 23, 2013
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Canada as 10% of total Americas sell-through is a pretty standard assumption. GAFfers have been using that assumption for many years.

And 25% is not unreasonable assuming that Splatoon benefited from a high digital adoption through the "Testfire" demo + large eShop promotion + lots of core gamers gravitating towards a digital library.

It's generous, sure, but I deliberately skewed it a bit higher to prove a point. Not to mention, at times we've seen ~25% digital rates with other Nintendo games in the past. So it's not completely unprecedented.
Thats fair enough. I don't disagree with the assumptions you've made as to me they actually look accurate and fit within certain known standards.

Just not sure how accurate it actually is when digital could be a lot higher (or lower) as can Canada sales as well.

I guess I'm just not a huge fan of that extrapolation method unless we have actual evidence (or enough data) to work out what the actual splits are for Splatoon itself.
 
fwiw I think the testfire eshop discount was only for Europe
Are you sure?

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/nintendo-is-giving-you-one-hour-to-try-wii-u-exclu/1100-6427365/

"Wii U owners that downloaded the demo during the last test period, or do so in the upcoming test period, will be entitled to a ten percent discount off the game when purchased from the eShop. The discount offer will last until June 4."


If you remember, Nintendo advertised Splatoon all over the eShop (even changing the eShop's music to Splatoon's theme), and the Testfire demo advertised an eShop pre-purchase right in the main menu:

 
May 23, 2013
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Oh great.... Doctor Professional has a new alt account on GAF and plans to use it..... he literally just told me.

Unfortunately he refused to tell me the name of the account, although I'm sure we'll find out once he starts posting and then gets banned again.
 
Aug 21, 2013
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Are you sure?

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/nintendo-is-giving-you-one-hour-to-try-wii-u-exclu/1100-6427365/

"Wii U owners that downloaded the demo during the last test period, or do so in the upcoming test period, will be entitled to a ten percent discount off the game when purchased from the eShop. The discount offer will last until June 4."


If you remember, Nintendo advertised Splatoon all over the eShop (even changing the eShop's music to Splatoon's theme), and, the Testfire demo advertised an eShop pre-purchase right in the main menu:
hmmm, I'm definitely not 100% sure but I remember that being a thing

I'm gonna be stuck with that avatar for a month, aren't I? Let me stay in denial a little longer :(
haha, hey you made the bet out of the blue. I couldn't believe what I was reading so I had to call you on it immediately ;p
 
Jun 7, 2004
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ps2 launched in march 2000. its parts were older than its us launch would lead you to believe.
Late, but FWIW, PS2 had a major hardware revision between Japanese launch and US launch. The Japanese launch model had no drive bay, and required an external HDD.

LOL what? How does that work don't they ban IP's or something?
Probably not, but they should have tools to spot IP usage that flag potential alts.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
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Oh great.... Doctor Professional has a new alt account on GAF and plans to use it..... he literally just told me.

Unfortunately he refused to tell me the name of the account, although I'm sure we'll find out once he starts posting and then gets banned again.
I-isn't just stupid to announce that he already made a brand new GAF account to another user? Especially someone like you who reports on it anyway. Wouldn't it be preferred to be as subtle as possible with a fake account?

...And why does he PM you? :lol
 
May 23, 2013
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I-isn't just stupid to announce that he already made a brand new GAF account to another user? Especially someone like you who reports on it anyway. Wouldn't it be preferred to be as subtle as possible with a fake account?

...And why does he PM you? :lol
Yup, he told me in confidence.... whoops....

The reason I PM him once is because he said he had access to numbers so I asked him to prove it to the admins here or stop posting about it (as people in this thread did). Surprisingly he never proved it...... hahaha


ZhugeEX is the alt account.

(What a twist)

Shhhhhh,

Although, I am surprised no one caught on what I did in this post- http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=169660250&postcount=2803
 

DC1

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Jan 30, 2013
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Bro you are absolutely right. i dont't
Understand why they even bother.
You know what i mean? i heard the guys at
Xerox have been doing their own astroturfing.
But it's nowhere near as bad as those who post
On here and try to push their agenda.
Xerox and the others need to stop.
Oh..Xerox employee? Or part of a company where Xerox is the vendor? If so, lets talk.

With regard to the sub topic:
Astroturfing is effective and will be part of the marketing space for the rest of our foreseeable human existence.

As much as I would like to enjoy intellgent and honest conversations in a public forum about items of leasure, I (we all should have) realized that such a place only exist in a liberated North Korea.

GAF is the safest place with the most diverse opinions that I know of.
 
May 23, 2013
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Oh..Xerox employee? Or part of a company where Xerox is the vendor? If so, lets talk.
Hahahaha!

(Read the first letter of each line)

Sorry but I'm not a Xerox employee!

With regard to the sub topic:
Astroturfing is effective and will be part of the marketing space for the rest of our foreseeable human existence.

As much as I would like to enjoy intellgent and honest conversations in a public forum about items of leasure, I (we all should have) realized that such a place only exist in a liberated North Korea.

GAF is the safest place with the most diverse opinions that I know of..
I like discussing stuff here, everyone has a genuine opinion and differing points of view and it's great to see that and understand their thoughts and learn from each other.

I very much enjoy reading sales threads on here to see peoples opinions and also read more detailed analysis from other members who have knowledge of the industry.

What ruins it for me is when some member (like this guy just got banned) starts to spew crap and agenda driven stuff over and over and think they know it all. Not a fan of that.
 

DC1

Member
Jan 30, 2013
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Hahahaha!

(Read the first letter of each line)

Sorry but I'm not a Xerox employee!



I like discussing stuff here, everyone has a genuine opinion and differing points of view and it's great to see that and understand their thoughts and learn from each other.

I very much enjoy reading sales threads on here to see peoples opinions and also read more detailed analysis from other members who have knowledge of the industry.

What ruins it for me is when some member (like this guy just got banned) starts to spew crap and agenda driven stuff over and over and think they know it all. Not a fan of that.
Lol- Very good.
I have the feeling that I now have to apply effort when reading your posts.

Damnit! This is against every principal I employ when kicking my feet up to enjoy Gafland!
 
Feb 24, 2014
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Bro you are absolutely right. i dont't
Understand why they even bother.
You know what i mean? i heard the guys at
Xerox have been doing their own astroturfing.
But it's nowhere near as bad as those who post
On here and try to push their agenda.
Xerox and the others need to stop.
I feel manipulated.
 
Sep 8, 2013
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JAPAN
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I will be prepared for the altocalypse GAF don't worry.

OT: still no estimates for stock numbers on the batman bundles I see. Really wish we'd get some insight on what to expect from some of the retail insiders. Like how do the numbers compare to the Destiny bundle or the Sunset Overdrive bundle.
 
Jul 29, 2010
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The reason the Wii U hasn't had a price cut is because the console has recently started to turn a profit and because if they drop the price the sales wouldn't increase enough for it to be worth it and create the same amount of profit.

So the Wii U is better staying at its current price for now. I do see a price cut happening eventually of course. But I dont see it being a significant one.


Sony have decided on a new strategy with PS4 and are aiming to make high margin on both hardware and software, unlike the PS2 gen where they sacrificed hardware margin in favour of a being the cumulative sales leader + making money back on software. That was a risky strategy but worked well for them.

This gen I think Sony will drop the price when they want to drop the price based on internal factors over external factors. They are able to remain the cumulative sales leader without needing to sacrifice margin on hardware.

That being said, I do envision Sony dropping the price of the console this fall in order to drive further adoption among different market segments and in order to achieve sales targets. I'm not confident enough to say whether this will be a significant price drop or just some sort of holiday bundle that is lower than the current RRP, but I do see something happening.
For what it's worth, if sales drop even lower than they are now (let's say below 30K in a month), you think Nintendo might consider dropping the price early just to keep it in stores? Or if XB1 gets cheaper than Wii U perhaps?


Also for June, what titles are we thinking might be in the top 10?

Batman Arkham Knight is the obvious one. I wouldn't be surprised if Lego Jurassic World did well considering how well the movie did. Any other new releases to look out for? I'd say Splatoon likely charts in June then considering the 476K in the Americas and the fact we still have one more week left in June.
 
Feb 24, 2014
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Also for June, what titles are we thinking might be in the top 10?

Batman Arkham Knight is the obvious one. I wouldn't be surprised if Lego Jurassic World did well considering how well the movie did. Any other new releases to look out for? I'd say Splatoon likely charts in June then considering the 476K in the Americas and the fact we still have one more week left in June.
Not in any order, but I think this will be the top 10.

Elder Scrolls Online
Batman: Arkham Knight
Lego Jurassic World
Splatoon
Grand Theft Auto V
The Witcher III: Wild Hunt
Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare
Mortal Kombat X
Minecraft
NBA 2K15

Pretty safe tbh
 
May 23, 2013
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For what it's worth, if sales drop even lower than they are now (let's say below 30K in a month), you think Nintendo might consider dropping the price early just to keep it in stores? Or if XB1 gets cheaper than Wii U perhaps?
They will drop the price some day. But I don't see it being a drastic cut, just something that pushes a few extra people towards the console. No sort of fire sale price or anything.

Wii U is a failure and the demand just isn't there to justify a sizeable price drop. In my opinion at least I think the reason Nintendo haven't dropped the price is because even if they did, it would not make a difference in sales (significantly) and they may as well just sell what they can with the higher price to generate higher margin.
 
Jan 28, 2014
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Since we had a brief discussion on Persona 5 sales potential in the USA in the trailer thread, I was wondering if anybody had final NPD sales for Persona 4 and Persona 4 Golden? (I got between 110,000 and 123,000 for Persona 4 by Jan 2009, and creamsugar said 65-70k for Persona 4 Golden launch month July 2013.)
 
Since we had a brief discussion on Persona 5 sales potential in the USA in the trailer thread, I was wondering if anybody hoad final NPD sales for Persona 4 and Persona 4 Golden? (I got between 110,000 and 123,000 for Persona 4 by Jan 2009, and creamsugar said 65-70k for Persona 4 Golden launch month July 2013.)
Persona 4 was a twilight game for the PlayStation 2 with word-of-mouth pushing it. So one can reasonably posit that Persona 4 would have legs beyond 100K.

But, at the same time, it was quite niche, often overlooked because of its small marketing campaign (Atlus doesn't exactly have the same capital of the major USA publishers), as well as the preeminence of the 7th-gen consoles overshadowing it. So, it's final LTD would be somewhere around 200K, approx. 2/3rds of its final Japanese LTD.
 
Dec 14, 2010
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Since we had a brief discussion on Persona 5 sales potential in the USA in the trailer thread, I was wondering if anybody had final NPD sales for Persona 4 and Persona 4 Golden? (I got between 110,000 and 123,000 for Persona 4 by Jan 2009, and creamsugar said 65-70k for Persona 4 Golden launch month July 2013.)
Persona 5 has better sales potential if only because it's actually going to be launching early into the PS4's life on the PS4. Both Persona 3 & 4 launched on the PS2 exclusively after the 360 and PS3 were released, but Persona 5 is launching on both the PS3 and the PS4. Being on the PS3 will mean the game will sell in Japan, while the PS4 version will be the better selling version outside of Japan. Now remember that Persona is still niche, but Persona 5 is in a better starting position than Persona 3 or 4 were.
 
Apr 21, 2015
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I will be prepared for the altocalypse GAF don't worry.

OT: still no estimates for stock numbers on the batman bundles I see. Really wish we'd get some insight on what to expect from some of the retail insiders. Like how do the numbers compare to the Destiny bundle or the Sunset Overdrive bundle.
It would seem that the regular bundle is plentiful and the LE custom one is pretty rare.
 
p4 did well over 200k in the states while p4g did half that.

p5 is positioned to be a million seller worldwide.
"Well over" 200K? Hmm...what's your source?

Because my 200K statement seems to have more precedent:


(From a 2013 thread)

sörine;92233207 said:
Known ltd sellthrough is this:

Japan (Famitsu)
Persona 4 (PS2) 294,214
Persona 4 Golden (PSV) 250,037

USA (NPD)
Persona 4 (PS2) around 200,000
Persona 4 Golden (PSV) around 100,000



It's 300,000 shipped + digital in Japan. So 400,000 shipped + digital in North America, PAL regions and Asia.
 
May 23, 2013
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This got no feedback in the other thread so might as well post it here.

This is my forecast for worldwide sales which I originally created in January 2014 but have now updated to reflect actual 2013 and 2014 totals. 2015-2019 still remains the same though.

I know this is a US thread but can't think of any other place to post this and can't be bothered with opening a new thread.

What are peoples thoughts on the below? Too low? Too high?

 
Feb 28, 2015
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This got no feedback in the other thread so might as well post it here.

This is my forecast for worldwide sales which I originally created in January 2014 but have now updated to reflect actual 2013 and 2014 totals. 2015-2019 still remains the same though.

I know this is a US thread but can't think of any other place to post this and can't be bothered with opening a new thread.

What are peoples thoughts on the below? Too low? Too high?

I think your predictions will wind up being pretty spot-on. I think PS4 might top 90 million. It's possible WiiU may get into the 15-20 million range If Zelda winds up being just for WiiU and not NX and another big release or two comes out for it. But if the suspicions are true that Zelda will be cross-gen and NX is coming 2017 I think you have it nailed it.