NPD Sales Results for May 2015

Jul 20, 2011
2,872
0
0
What are peoples thoughts on the below? Too low? Too high?
a 50M XB1 would put US sales around ~30M minimum (I'd say closer to 35M). Assuming PS4 keeps its current marketshare in the US, that would put it around ~35M (or even near 40 if we take the upper XB1 projection).
So you are predicting that PS4+XB1 in the US to be bigger than 360+PS3 while at the same time PS4 ends up being smaller than PS3 ROTW wise.
I think that excluding Japan, PS4 is supposed to be bigger than PS3 everywhere else. Specially when we add all those smaller markets like Middle East and Asia that are experiencing sustantial growth

I think 100:40 is more feasible than 8X:50
 
Mar 28, 2013
1,990
0
0
This got no feedback in the other thread so might as well post it here.

This is my forecast for worldwide sales which I originally created in January 2014 but have now updated to reflect actual 2013 and 2014 totals. 2015-2019 still remains the same though.

I know this is a US thread but can't think of any other place to post this and can't be bothered with opening a new thread.

What are peoples thoughts on the below? Too low? Too high?

The Wii U might not even reach 12 million if the NX is announced for a 2016 release.

As for the other two, the PS3/360 sold at least 160 million units combined, and the Wii another 101.5 million alone. Most of the Wii owners are now using tablets and phones to get their fix, but you're projecting ~146 million across all three systems (134 for X1/PS4) which might seem a bit low.

Then again, they had a longer lifetime, and you're talking 6 years here.

I think some of it depends on VR, which, if it's a big hit, would make more PS3/360 owners buy a new console instead of skipping the generation like many PS2 owners did with the last.

Overall, PS4 selling 80+ million is a safe bet, I'd say. Not sure about the Xbox, I think we could see another console sooner than expected, but it should sell at least 35-40 million even with a new console in 2018-19.
 
Sep 8, 2013
7,105
0
0
JAPAN
twitter.com
Just observations.

You can disregard of course if that sort of thing doesn't interest you.
Personal observations? Do you work in retail? I was just wondering where you got the info. Didn't know if I had missed an insider post or something. Meant no insult.

This got no feedback in the other thread so might as well post it here.

This is my forecast for worldwide sales which I originally created in January 2014 but have now updated to reflect actual 2013 and 2014 totals. 2015-2019 still remains the same though.

I know this is a US thread but can't think of any other place to post this and can't be bothered with opening a new thread.

What are peoples thoughts on the below? Too low? Too high?

I would personally expect the PS4 to sell more than 80 million by the end of its life cycle. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 95 million if not more. XB1 I expect to cap out at around 40 million. I think you nailed WiiU though. As far as PS4 and XB1 go, I guess it depends on the price points and software libraries more than anything else at this point. Your predictions are certainly within the realm of possibility but it would be incredibly underwhelming to see the lead console this gen sell under 90 million units given the under-performance of the competing platforms.

Basically I agree completely with this post
a 50M XB1 would put US sales around ~30M minimum (I'd say closer to 35M). Assuming PS4 keeps its current marketshare in the US, that would put it around ~35M (or even near 40 if we take the upper XB1 projection).
So you are predicting that PS4+XB1 in the US to be bigger than 360+PS3 while at the same time PS4 ends up being smaller than PS3 ROTW wise.
I think that excluding Japan, PS4 is supposed to be bigger than PS3 everywhere else. Specially when we add all those smaller markets like Middle East and Asia that are experiencing sustantial growth

I think 100:40 is more feasible than 8X:50
 
May 23, 2013
5,915
0
0
twitter.com
a 50M XB1 would put US sales around ~30M minimum (I'd say closer to 35M). Assuming PS4 keeps its current marketshare in the US, that would put it around ~35M (or even near 40 if we take the upper XB1 projection).
So you are predicting that PS4+XB1 in the US to be bigger than 360+PS3 while at the same time PS4 ends up being smaller than PS3 ROTW wise.
I think that excluding Japan, PS4 is supposed to be bigger than PS3 everywhere else. Specially when we add all those smaller markets like Middle East and Asia that are experiencing substantial growth

I think 100:40 is more feasible than 8X:50
I am expecting some sort of growth for Xbox One outside of the USA (and even inside the USA) as the price comes down and core gamers who want a second console/casuals looking for their first console jump in. The Xbox brand is still large enough to mean something. In the way that PlayStation brand was big during the PS3 era.

In regards to PS4, I don't see the US amounting to more than 30-35% of total sales. RotW will really push the PS4 this time. The US will still be the leading country of course.

As for the other two, the PS3/360 sold at least 160 million units combined, and the Wii another 101.5 million alone. Most of the Wii owners are now using tablets and phones to get their fix, but you're projecting ~146 million across all three systems (134 for X1/PS4) which might seem a bit low.

Then again, they had a longer lifetime, and you're talking 6 years here.

I think some of it depends on VR, which, if it's a big hit, would make more PS3/360 owners buy a new console instead of skipping the generation like many PS2 owners did with the last.

Overall, PS4 selling 80+ million is a safe bet, I'd say. Not sure about the Xbox, I think we could see another console sooner than expected, but it should sell at least 35-40 million even with a new console in 2018-19.
Yup, worth bearing in mind this is only up to 2019. It also doesn't consider a number of factors such as sales extension tools e.g- Kinect 3.0/Move 2.0 being launched later in the lifecycle + boom in sales. Nor does this take into account competition in the console space being introduced before 2019 (Other than NX which we know about).

I do think though that the total userbase will shrink drastically compared to last gen however we'll see attach rates increase, more AAA games sell better and the remaining publishers maximising profit from every game. Ultimately the decline in revenue shouldn't be as steep.

I would personally expect the PS4 to sell more than 80 million by the end of its life cycle. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 95 million if not more. XB1 I expect to cap out at around 40 million. I think you nailed WiiU though. As far as PS4 and XB1 go, I guess it depends on the price points and software libraries more than anything else at this point. Your predictions are certainly within the realm of possibility but it would be incredibly underwhelming to see the lead console this gen sell under 90 million units given the under-performance of the competing platforms.

Basically I agree completely with this post
I don't think we'll see the PS4 sell 100 million before 2019. It certainly could afterwards but in the limited time there is it would take some sort of hook other than price for 100m to become possible before 2019. Whether that's morpheus taking off or some sort of new service? I dunno? But I don't see it happening.

The Xbox One will be kept afloat by the US and UK and I do at this moment see people moving towards the console a bit later in the lifecycle (due to value propositions/brand/games) which means sales aren't going to drop off a cliff after 2016.

At this point I'd say less than 50m for sure.

XBox One 20 millions in 2015? What is it at now, 2 millions more than Wii U?

8 more millions in 6 months seems unlikely at the pace it's selling.
It'd need to sell ~6-7m units in the next 6 months to reach 20m. It's certainly possible when you consider the strong holiday line up (read as Halo) + what they did last year.

Anyway, taking on some feedback I guess this is what most people would say would need adjusting. I do actually agree that the PS4 could be around 90m as demonstrated below. But I do believe the Xbox One could be nearer 50m. But hey, we're talking a few million difference which isn't much. Anyway, I hope this is a better prediction than the IDC one haha.

 
Jan 16, 2007
42,665
3
920
Bro you are absolutely right. i dont't
Understand why they even bother.
You know what i mean? i heard the guys at
Xerox have been doing their own astroturfing.
But it's nowhere near as bad as those who post
On here and try to push their agenda.
Xerox and the others need to stop.
I have a sudden overwhelming urge to... drink Ovaltine?
 
May 23, 2013
5,915
0
0
twitter.com
Why is that? New quarter?
Well July 21st is when they announce previous quarter sell in.

No doubt it'll be a combined number. But based on previous figures it's safe to say that as an absolute minimum the Xbox One will have been over 12 million as of March 31st 2015. I currently put it around 12.5m-13.5m as of March 31st 2015. By no means a definitive number, just take it as a rough guide based on the numerous calculations I've made.
 
Feb 12, 2015
564
0
0
It's taken as fact that the Holidays are more interesting but I think June NPD is as significant. Granted the number will be smaller but I'm curious to see how E3 translated to actual sales and whether or not each console got a boost from their conferences.

I just looked at amazon and the two XBO bundles are 28/45 where as previously courtesy of the free game giveaway they were charting but now with the deal removed they are falling fast. Like January of this year when they put the price back to it's original price point.

I think MS might reinstate the free game deal if the drop off continues
 
Feb 24, 2014
14,512
0
370
My bad was looking at the hourly. When was the monthly last updated?
I have no idea. First time I looked in a while, but probably recently if AC Bundle is so close.

#18 is the other Arkham Knight PS4 bundle tho.
That's the hourly charts you're using. Monthly charts are what I posted. (That bundle you pointed out is right there at #34)
 
Nov 18, 2013
4,304
0
355
Anyway, taking on some feedback I guess this is what most people would say would need adjusting. I do actually agree that the PS4 could be around 90m as demonstrated below. But I do believe the Xbox One could be nearer 50m. But hey, we're talking a few million difference which isn't much.
Poor WiiU.

Also: AssCreed Bundle still charting. Amazing. How many did they produce of this?
 
Nov 30, 2014
6,851
0
0
Ipoh, Malaysia
Anyway, taking on some feedback I guess this is what most people would say would need adjusting. I do actually agree that the PS4 could be around 90m as demonstrated below. But I do believe the Xbox One could be nearer 50m. But hey, we're talking a few million difference which isn't much. Anyway, I hope this is a better prediction than the IDC one haha.

Edit: Liking your new avatar, BTW ;)

Well, I'd say that I think the sales of the PS4 will be very close, if not, at 100 million at the end of 2019. Of course this depends on how Morpheus does and I personally think it and price drops will significantly boost sales. I agree with your XB1 predictions, though, ~45 million seems about right. Also, if NX launches in the next few years and does as well as the Wii (unlikely, but if), sales of the PS4 and XB1 could be impacted tremendously.

My bad was looking at the hourly. When was the monthly last updated?
Several days ago if I'm not mistaken. The positions were similar since early last week IIRC.
 
Mar 5, 2014
1,811
0
0
This got no feedback in the other thread so might as well post it here.

This is my forecast for worldwide sales which I originally created in January 2014 but have now updated to reflect actual 2013 and 2014 totals. 2015-2019 still remains the same though.

I know this is a US thread but can't think of any other place to post this and can't be bothered with opening a new thread.

What are peoples thoughts on the below? Too low? Too high?

Seems fairly good to me.

Maybe bump PS4 sales up 10-20M more depending on how successful Morpheus is, and how well it continues to sell after a price drop and big exclusives hit.

And 50M X1 sales seems very plausible to me...
though I don't think it will quite hit 20M this year, and I think sales will peak in 2016....maybe.
 
Sep 8, 2013
7,105
0
0
JAPAN
twitter.com
This JUNE NPD might be a lot closer than I had originally anticipated what with these crazy discounts MS have been offering the past few weeks (Console, 3 free games, disoriented love and $50 live credit). These are especially huge when you factor in that the trade in 360 credit can count towards them as well. Basically you can get a new 1tb system with the new controller, MCC, Unity, a game of your choice, and $50 Microsoft credit for $250. That's absolutely INSANE. Seem to be a LOT of gaffers picking up an Xbox One in response. Can't imagine that isn't at least somewhat reflective of the market as a whole.

How the hell can MS afford to keep discounting their hardware so much? They've got to be losing some major money on these deals.
 
Dec 29, 2008
430
0
0
Razors and blades? Xbox One is getting solid tie rations both physically and digitally on software. They could be playing the long game.
If so I don't see how Sony won't lower the price to $299 this holiday seeing as how they sell more total software and have held their initial price for so long. On top of that the increase in PS+ subs. Plus the new Ps4 has to cost less to manufacture.
 
Feb 16, 2010
14,234
0
0
Mars
If so I don't see how Sony won't lower the price to $299 this holiday seeing as how they sell more total software and have held their initial price for so long. On top of that the increase in PS+ subs. Plus the new Ps4 has to cost less to manufacture.
Well, if the demand for PS4 isn't dropping with the aggressive moves by MS, why not keep the price higher and make money on both the systems and the software, etc?
 
Sep 8, 2013
7,105
0
0
JAPAN
twitter.com
Razors and blades? Xbox One is getting solid tie rations both physically and digitally on software. They could be playing the long game.
Fair enough but I can't really imagine this is an easy sell to corporate. In the past they have seemed very short term focused. Perhaps that is slowly changing with new management (Nadella) but even still these deals cant be cheap for them. These subsidies/bundles have got to be costing MS a pretty penny and with the rate they have been pumping them out they are surely adding up.
 
Dec 5, 2014
4,803
0
340
US
Anyway, taking on some feedback I guess this is what most people would say would need adjusting. I do actually agree that the PS4 could be around 90m as demonstrated below. But I do believe the Xbox One could be nearer 50m. But hey, we're talking a few million difference which isn't much. Anyway, I hope this is a better prediction than the IDC one haha.

Amazing Graph as always Zhuge, the adjustment you made really fits in with the current trends now, but who know what may change in the coming years.

I wish this could happen again, oh well...
 
Dec 13, 2006
16,951
0
0
England
steverulez.co.uk
Fair enough but I can't really imagine this is an easy sell to corporate. In the past they have seemed very short term focused. Perhaps that is slowly changing with new management (Nadella) but even still these deals cant be cheap for them. These subsidies/bundles have got to be costing MS a pretty penny and with the rate they have been pumping them out they are surely adding up.
Well, as I see it they have two choices, they either sit back, lie down and do worse than they could be, or they could make more effort, be competitive and on the front foot for pricing/deals and try to sell as many as they can.

The XB1 was initially sold at a profit, even factoring in all the sku changes, bundles and promotions they've done, against cost of manufacturing probably dropping somewhat (even if not a huge amount), I can't see why it wouldn't be in a better position than the 360 was, which was sold at a decent loss iirc, not to mention they had RROD problems which culminated in a $1bn w/o, plus Mark Rein said he cost MS $1bn on the 360 as well by getting them to up the ram from 256mb to 512mb

I don't think they are leaking the money you are under the impression they are. Live subs are presumably doing alright/well, software is selling digitally and at retail.

Consoles were always a long game with profitability and software sales, they have a better direction now, they're trying to help the division succeed not work against it, if they don't accept the realities of the power difference/perception and image problems and get competitive with the pricing they might as well just have canned it a year ago and shut the division down.

I think they will have a big holiday in the US this year, given all the software and other stuff they have coming which will be good for them.
 
The demand for PS4 is dropping though, the sales are down YOY.
Not completely true. There are examples of growth all around the world, so it's not fair to make such a sweeping, generalized statement. The reality is simply more nuanced.

For example, USA PS4 software has been consistently higher YOY, only dropping into the negatives in May (-7% YOY) for the very first time since comps began in November 2014.

In a USA hardware example, the PS4 was +27% YOY in February, and it was up a similar amount in December.
 
The demand has dropped in the U.S. No idea on the rest of the world, but it doesn't seem to be selling a million a month any more though.
In the USA, PS4 2015 hardware YTD is only trailing 2014 hardware YTD by -10%.

That's technically a drop but it is far from a significant one, especially if Sony has substantially larger profit margins a year and a half after launch.

And that's excluding metrics like YTD software growth / 1st-party YTD software growth / non-USA data.
 
May 23, 2013
5,915
0
0
twitter.com
Grim Reaper is right.

The reason Sony haven't dropped the price is because they don't need to. They're doing fine at $399.

It's not just about undercutting Microsoft all the time, the first priority is to ensure the Game business remains profitable for them.

That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a price drop this year.
 
Feb 16, 2010
14,234
0
0
Mars
The demand for PS4 is dropping though, the sales are down YOY.
The demand has dropped in the U.S. No idea on the rest of the world, but it doesn't seem to be selling a million a month any more though.
If the demand isn't dropping because of the aggressive moves by MS... If they're seeing normal baseline demand ie no abnormal changes which can be attributed to the moves by a competitor. Different than just sales going up or down.

Fair enough but I can't really imagine this is an easy sell to corporate.
But they know they had their butts handed to them. They've said as much. At some point, you have to change strategy (which they've certainly done) and that often comes with short term setbacks to get to a healthier long-term.
 
Sep 17, 2006
30,835
0
1,075
Puerto Rico
"Old", but..
Are you sure?

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/nintendo-is-giving-you-one-hour-to-try-wii-u-exclu/1100-6427365/

"Wii U owners that downloaded the demo during the last test period, or do so in the upcoming test period, will be entitled to a ten percent discount off the game when purchased from the eShop. The discount offer will last until June 4."


If you remember, Nintendo advertised Splatoon all over the eShop (even changing the eShop's music to Splatoon's theme), and the Testfire demo advertised an eShop pre-purchase right in the main menu:
The discount was EU only, but sites started reporting it without that mention.

Plus, I got no discount. :p

But yeah, there was music and a banner on the eShop along the Testfire.
 
Mar 9, 2015
1,551
0
0
How the hell can MS afford to keep discounting their hardware so much? They've got to be losing some major money on these deals.
I've often wondered the same. There's simply no way MS can be pulling a profit right now, at least not on the $350 SKU. I've never seen one company try so damn hard to sell you a console. Having said that, I do expect Sony to take June rather handily.

Also, good Lord. Fallout 4 is the top selling software by a good amount in June, and it releases in November. This game is going to be HUGE. Lara might want to rethink her November 11 release date. But really, this winter is gonna be huge for both consoles. Expect TONS of people who waited to come over to the new gen. Massive sales all around.

Well, I'd say that I think the sales of the PS4 will be very close, if not, at 100 million at the end of 2019. Of course this depends on how Morpheus does and I personally think it and price drops will significantly boost sales. I agree with your XB1 predictions, though, ~45 million seems about right. Also, if NX launches in the next few years and does as well as the Wii (unlikely, but if), sales of the PS4 and XB1 could be impacted tremendously.


Several days ago if I'm not mistaken. The positions were similar since early last week IIRC.
Agreed. I think PS4 will most likely top out somewhere between 95-100 million by generation's end. I also like Grim's assessments on PS4 demand......it's far more complex than "demand in the US is down". Europe is quickly becoming just as important to Sony as the US is, just look at the massive growth and market share. I also don't see the current trend in America as evidence that demand is slipping, I just find it indicative of a traditionally slow sales period combined with few major releases and a market that adopted far quicker early on than it's predecessors......again, I think the sales of BOTH consoles this fall will speak volumes. It's gonna be a good holiday season for the industry, mark my words.
 
May 23, 2013
5,915
0
0
twitter.com
I've often wondered the same. There's simply no way MS can be pulling a profit right now, at least not on the $350 SKU. I've never seen one company try so damn hard to sell you a console.
I'll assume you mean profit on console hardware and not overall profit?

But anyway, there has been more intense competition (on price) back in the 90's and early 2000's. The original Xbox was sold at a loss from day 1, as an example. Yet they still dropped the price $100 to match Sony. It's estimated that Microsoft lost almost $4 billion on hardware sales with the original Xbox before the Xbox 360 launch. In fact, at launch the Xbox sold at $299 but cost ~$425 to build.
 
Is it too late for a Junior Member to come in this thread, make ridiculous claims and get banned?

Because when I went to Best Buy to pick up my preordered copy of Arkham Knight, I saw 1 Xbox sitting on the preorder shelf and 2 PS4's. So... going by that, I believe the PS4 will double the sales of the XB1.

How'd I do?

I'm joking. Please don't ban me. I just can't wait to see what kind of numbers Batman does. The game is so pretty (I'm not very far into it, so I can't vouch for its overall quality yet).
 
Dec 5, 2014
4,803
0
340
US
Is it too late for a Junior Member to come in this thread, make ridiculous claims and get banned?

Because when I went to Best Buy to pick up my preordered copy of Arkham Knight, I saw 1 Xbox sitting on the preorder shelf and 2 PS4's. So... going by that, I believe the PS4 will double the sales of the XB1.

How'd I do?

I'm joking. Please don't ban me. I just can't wait to see what kind of numbers Batman does. The game is so pretty (I'm not very far into it, so I can't vouch for its overall quality yet).
Haha, there are no spots available for junior bans in this thread (they where already taken) but try it in the next NPD prediction thread. Who knows maybe you might be lucky ;P

Can't wait for Batman numbers too.
 
Feb 24, 2014
14,512
0
370
Is it too late for a Junior Member to come in this thread, make ridiculous claims and get banned?

Because when I went to Best Buy to pick up my preordered copy of Arkham Knight, I saw 1 Xbox sitting on the preorder shelf and 2 PS4's. So... going by that, I believe the PS4 will double the sales of the XB1.

How'd I do?
Throw him in the dungeon.
 
Nov 26, 2009
11,734
0
0
Los Angeles
Is it too late for a Junior Member to come in this thread, make ridiculous claims and get banned?

Because when I went to Best Buy to pick up my preordered copy of Arkham Knight, I saw 1 Xbox sitting on the preorder shelf and 2 PS4's. So... going by that, I believe the PS4 will double the sales of the XB1.

How'd I do?

I'm joking. Please don't ban me. I just can't wait to see what kind of numbers Batman does. The game is so pretty (I'm not very far into it, so I can't vouch for its overall quality yet).
My anecdotal story is kind of the same. I went to BB to pick up some speakers at the online pickup and saw that area behind the employees where the hold stuff for people. Saw about 8 Batman LE and non LE PS4s combined. 0 Xboxes. Did see a copy of AK behind held for Xbone though. Could be that Xbox purchasers like to head to the stores themselves to buy it rather than hold for pickup though.
 
Sep 20, 2006
3,547
0
0
Is it too late for a Junior Member to come in this thread, make ridiculous claims and get banned?

Because when I went to Best Buy to pick up my preordered copy of Arkham Knight, I saw 1 Xbox sitting on the preorder shelf and 2 PS4's. So... going by that, I believe the PS4 will double the sales of the XB1.

How'd I do?

I'm joking. Please don't ban me. I just can't wait to see what kind of numbers Batman does. The game is so pretty (I'm not very far into it, so I can't vouch for its overall quality yet).
Darth should permanently remain a junior for that post.
Btw, I don't like Zhuge's new avatar!