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NPD Sales Results for October 2015 [Up1: Xbox #1]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
Square2015
Member
3DS hardware numbers? And how well have the PS3, X360 performed this year compared to last year?
NDP_Mulcair
Banned
Hi, jjonez18. NPD_George here. Let me clarify.
Microsoft's Halo 5: Guardians game sales were 842K.
In total (as I previously announced), Halo 5: Guardians sold 935K.
Hardware bundles with 'Gears of War: Ultimate Edition' and 'Halo 5: Guardians' comprised a significant part of the 303K Xbox One sales for the month and led Xbox One sales.
As previously discussed, it is abundantly clear that Uncharted: The Nathan Drake Collection was more successful in generating hardware interest.
It also speaks to the inherent strengths of Sony's PlayStation 4 platform in attracting new customers.
Glorified G
Member
Looking forward to the NPD_Trump account.
All it means is that the people that were excited for Halo 5 already bought a Xbone before Halo 5 released.
At least this closes that argument people had between 2 and 1 year ago.
Not unexpected. They played a teaser trailer for the Poncho Chief at the Xbox reveal.
They played that card way too early into this gen.
Bitch Pudding
Member
I don't believe MS will release Gears 4 in Q4 2016 - anymore...
serversurfer
Member
Gotcha. Thanks.
No, I'm saying the game started physical. Then they decided that digital-only was a better option for them, so they substituted for that. Yes, they also had the option of folding their tent, but they didn't do that either; they substituted digital for physical (after having done both for a bit, I assume?). The upshot is, a game that was being published physically is now only being published digitally. I don't know how you can call that anything other than substitution. The fact that they had a good reason to substitute doesn't make it any less of a substitution.
Always assume that I'm not assuming that. lol No, I don't think development resources are fixed, but yes, I understand that they are both finite and reasonably static. Yes, there are a lot of 15 year old indy developers out there. There are also a lot of industry veterans who after the flop of the latest mid-tier project they'd been working on decided to split up and strike out on their own without the shackles of a publisher who thought more about profits than fun and the need to sell a ridiculous number of copies just to break even. The former group are doing incremental publishing, and the latter group are substitutive. IMHO
Yes, I understand it's not actually quite that simple, but hopefully you see what I'm saying; some development resources have been added, and some have been shifted.
Then would it be fair to say that at the $60 price point, digital brings substantially more money to the pub/dev in the ballpark of 56% more than does physical?
Okay, so a few years back, before digital was a thing, ShooterGame2 sold 1M at retail. ShooterGame3 just launched both physically and digitally, and sold 1M at retail, and another 250k digitally. So we can easily see that adding a digital option grew the market by 25%. Obviously, some number of that 250k substituted digital for physical, but we know that whatever the amount, it's basically meaningless, because we haven't lost any of our 1M physical buyers; they're still lined up in the store on launch day, just like last time. Not every title follows these precise patterns and likely, no title follows them precisely but when looking at the overall market, we can say that this is the trend. There are more sales now, but they come almost entirely from the digital market, because the physical market has been stable from a per-title perspective. Yes?
Wasn't that so much more efficient than dodging?
Okay, that's a valid point, but here's my counter-argument. I strongly suspect that if ShooterGame3 launched today with no digital release, it's sales would still total 1225k-1248k, because of the 250k digital buyers, I can't imagine that even 25k of them would be unwilling or unable to buy the physical release. Probably more like 2.5k or less. Therefore, those 2.5k-25k who can't or won't buy physical were the incremental sales, and the remaining 225k-247k were substitutional. There's no way in Hell those 200k+ gamers would've simply passed on the game if there were no digital option, but that's effectively what you're arguing.
So as I said, it seems that we differ wildly on what even counts as substitution.
Yeah, sorry. Like I said, I certainly didn't mean to pester you to divulge too many secrets. It's just that since I'm on the outside, I really have no way to determine what's" too many," apart from your telling me you can't answer.
And hey, that happens too. A lot of this is a matter of interpretation. Look at the above example. Even with "concrete" data, we still can't agree on what it's actually telling us. That's why I'm trying to get the data as raw as I possibly can without getting you fired. Not because your conclusions aren't valid, but because I may be able to draw my own, equally (in)valid conclusions. If and when you have differing conclusions, then you can play "Which is Best?"
Sounds you're the one assuming zero sum here.
"If substitution was happening at meaningful rates, per-title packaged sales would drop meaningfully, yet they aren't." That's zero sum. whynotboth.gif Your assumption that substitution is meaningless only holds if growth would've been equally meaningless were it not for the addition of digital. If you don't assume zero-sum and allow for the possibility of growth outside of the addition of new delivery vectors, that also allows for "hidden" substitution to occur. Hence, your scenario is zero sum, not mine.No, no, no! Haven't you been paying attention??
It's not ironic; it's expected. The very same factors that make digital a great refuge for games that once struggled to be viable physically also make it the perfect place to incubate unproven IP, and determine whether you have something worthy of physical release. It's not irony when a system is doing precisely what it's supposed to do.Thanks, George. <3
This helps narrow the range on Top 10 sales a bit, no?
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Why not? They definitely won't go with Scalebound as their holiday headliner.
I don't automatically see it as a negative.
If they sold people Xbones based on the promise of Halo 5 then it depends whether or not they bought in at launch where surely they made money on the HW and also boosted the install base which was good for publisher confidence in next-gen.
If they sold a lot of those Xbones when they were mega discounted and surely lost them money then the lack of growth in the franchise might be a mixed bag. Negative for MS but still positive for third party publisher and the confidence in next-gen numbers.
They need to. Halo Wars is a good August/September game but nothing in their upcoming catalog screams Holiday release except Gears, at least on paper.
I wouldn't say that as a fact yet considering the bundle was $500. Don't know how many people bought the game alongside the other cheaper bundles.
________
Can't see that happening at all. Biggest Xbox exclusive for 2016. I think we may see an early October release though (instead of late October or early November -- i.e.: Call of Duty hype train period).
Correct me if I'm wrong but if the packaged release count goes down then average sales per title would go up since lower selling titles would be the ones to be cut and some of the sales of the games that were cut would be consolidated to the surviving games. Then digital comes in and substitutes for some of these increased sales bringing them back down.
Bitch Pudding
Member
They need a significant gap to all those November releases. Just too crowded space for expensive 1st party games. So, maybe early (!) October could work, but releasing it in November will not do Gears 4 sales any good.
Fair enough. With the way Microsoft and retailers are set up for retailer bundles that get counted as regular game sales this doesn't allow for my conclusion.
Yeah, that's why I said early October. I couldn't see the game coming out earlier than that and hopefully MS learned a lesson from Halo 5's launch.
"Fun Fact": Gears of War 1 and 2 released during Novembers. Gears of War 3 released during a September.
_____________
Halo 3 did much better than Halo 5 in terms of sales and the Xbox 360 did 520K during the month it released (where as the Xbox One did a little bit over 300K).
Hard to say if the majority of people who were interested in Halo 5 already had the console or simply if the series' popularity taking a bit of a hit caused lower bundle/console sales in comparison. Guess we'll get a clearer picture once we get more Holiday season stats.
panda-zebra
Member
That talk of August's pre-orders "outselling" all other xb1 SKUs on Amazon seems to have been a massive red herring in some people's predictions with such a small number sold in total across all retailers.
We'd do well to play down such occurrences in future as it seems a $0 hype-fuelled click doesn't always stick.
slavesnyder
Member
Well, in my eyes it's irony to see once proud retailers slowly being transformed into additional revenue sources.No, no, no! Haven't you been paying attention??
Saddest image: Steam card displays.
Second place: Steam keys in Retail boxes.
So far, console boxes are still safe, as closed systems (our yesterday's favorite theme) keep prices high without discount madness every two months and PWYW-bundling after nine. So retail boxes still can compete and have some safety in planning, even if revenue per box is far lower than digital sale.
But I think you talked about something else. Incubator effect of digital, propelling the strongest titles into retail. A little like pilot episodes for TV series. Of course that's nice and risc minimising. Nevertheless I would like to know what Limbo, Shovel Knight or some other indie darling make in retail compared to their digital success before.
Dash_Riprock
Member
I don't think MS wanted to lose money on their AAA franchise.
I have no idea what they were thinking.
To be fair, before there were Steam keys, there were CD Keys, which happened in the era where retail pretty much gave up on PC games. My personal opinion is that console gamers, PC gamers, and mobile gamers have different needs which end up being best fulfilled by their chosen platforms which is why Console, PC, and mobile games end up being so different in their stereotypical forms.
Diprosalic
Banned
let's make money for once?
serversurfer
Member
Sure. Let's say we have five games that typically move 1000k, and another five that typically do 500k. So we have per-title sales of 750k. Now let's say three of those smaller games either fold or flee to digital. Now our per-title average has jumped to 857k. So if our per-title average is flat despite the loss of presumably smaller titles, one might ask why we aren't seeing that per-title bump. Perhaps due to digital substitution at the consumer end occurring at a compensatory rate?
I'm not so sure about this part though. When they stopped making games like AeroBiz and Carnage Heart for PlayStation, that didn't make me any more interested in Call of Duty. More resentful, if anything.
Oh, I see what you mean. Sorry, I typically don't spend a lot of time thinking about industries that get usurped by technology, particularly if they're "just" cottage industries. Someday we'll have replicators and we won't need retail at all, which I guess will be sad for any retailers who didn't see that coming and learn how to repair replicators. /shrug
Oh, I don't think physical distribution is going away any time in the near future. Retail is vital to distribution, and will remain so for the foreseeable future. That said, digital distribution has progressed to the point that digital-only is a viable option, and indeed sometimes preferable to physical distribution. Therefore, I also side with the conventional that says substitution is happening today, and will likely continue to progress.
Yeah, I'd be interested to know just profitable those attempts to collect that "high-hanging" fruit really are. Obviously, Minecraft has seen great success at retail, but it's hardly the norm.
Anyway, if we had an idea of how many additional sales they were getting on the physical release, it'd help us determine how much of the digital market is incremental and how much is substitutional. It seems like comparatively little substitution occurs on the consumer end in Europe, so the physical release would likely be more successful there.
As a Canadian I approve of your new alias.
slavesnyder
Member
agree. Minecraft numbers would teach us nothing.
I think having retail release is not very profitable for most indies (better than none nevertheless), but it can have positive side-effects.
1) indies are proud to have a box. These are game-makers after all, and not always cold-hearted businessmen. They work for the game several years and finally they have a physical product.
Also good when you promised it for your kickstarter backers of course.
2) retail boxes are small ads for the game, standing there where gamers go.
Possible that gamers see the box, admire, and then buy digitally afterwards on sale. Also: retailers might promote the game and the fact that it's out on retail might add social media buzz and reviews.
Once again ironic: this is exactly what happened when the big retail chains came up. People got their info in the small shops and then bought it in the big store to safe a buck...
3) you establish a contact to a publisher. And you never know if that might not come in handy for your next game.
Pardon me, but I have a soft spot for soft skills and kitchen psychology.
Console boxes in Europe do fine. PC dies as everywhere. In some markets the body still shakes a little, in some it already stinks.
CosmicQueso
Member
Surfer, I'm throwing in the towel. We cannot even agree what the word substitute means. You are assuming a causal relationship between digital and packaged sales levels. I disagree strongly.
The philosophy I espouse, that releasing more packaged games will result in market success despite growth in digital, has worked out really well for a pub like Warner this year. Other pubs that pulled back on packaged games without diversifying in the contraction period are struggling. Oh well.
Anyways, have a good thanksgiving.
It takes far fewer big games to be cut to account for a whole bunch of smaller games getting cut.
The philosophy I espouse, that releasing more packaged games will result in market success despite growth in digital, has worked out really well for a pub like Warner this year. Other pubs that pulled back on packaged games without diversifying in the contraction period are struggling. Oh well.
Anyways, have a good thanksgiving.
It takes far fewer big games to be cut to account for a whole bunch of smaller games getting cut.
get2sammyb
Member
Don't you think this holiday shows that unless you're an absolutely gigantic brand, it's hard to keep up during the holidays? Uncharted 4 would have struggled this Christmas, too. For as much stick as Sony's gotten for not having a "holiday lineup", I think their strategy's been spot on.
Uncharted 4's going to clean up in March now.
I disagree. I think they need to launch gears in the fall just so that there's an attached bundle.
Since Sony has COD marketing they probably will have another bundle next year. And probably a destiny 2 bundle
What other game would MS have to bundle? Maybe Mass Effect if they have a marketing deal, but your gonna need something
serversurfer
Member
Sure, that'd be pretty cool.
Probably not the cheapest advertising one could do, but advertising nonetheless, and arguably more effective than a radio spot.
On the same note, I could see Sony kicking in a little something to help a successful indy do a physical release, "Just to show people what they've been missing," and write any associated costs off as marketing.
True, it's always nice to have powerful friends.
Sorry, but I have absolutely no idea what this means. lol
Again, I'm not really sure what you're trying to say here, but my point was that when it comes to console software, it seems like Europe as a whole is fairly reluctant to switch to digital.
Yeah, that's kinda the conclusion I was reaching too. I now see where you're coming from, and I understand why you feel that way, but I still think your definition of substitution is way too narrow and you see can't see any meaningful levels of substitution because you've decided that all of the causes of substitution somehow make it no longer a case of substitution. So yeah, sorry and thanks for explaining where you're coming from it really was helpful but I'm still siding with the conventional wisdom here.
The only part of that I dispute is that it merely could result in market success. There's no guarantee of success. The only thing that's guaranteed is your risk. Just like playing the slots, bigger risks can mean bigger rewards, but playing the $5 machine doesn't mean you're going to win more. It just means you might.
So I agree that we should release more titles at retail, but I would add, " once we've determined which games will be successful enough to warrant it, and digital publishing can be a comparatively cheap and effective way of determining that for unknowns."
You too.
I'm thankful for you! <3
Guys $500 is a lot. MS totally priced their Halo bundle out of relevance thinking they could ride the brand through a wave of profitability. Clearly it didn't work that way.
That said, no doubt in my mind we will see Halo bundles drop price big time next year. I would not be surprised to see it become one their entry level bundles in order to clear stock similar to the drop we saw for the collectors edition of the game.
That said, no doubt in my mind we will see Halo bundles drop price big time next year. I would not be surprised to see it become one their entry level bundles in order to clear stock similar to the drop we saw for the collectors edition of the game.
Primethius
Banned
Purely anecdotal stuff but I went to Best Buy today to pick up Diablo 3 and man, that Tomb Raider bundle... what an awful idea.
Saw lots of PS4's being carried around, quite a few XB1's but the stack of Tomb Raider bundles wasn't being touched. I saw one kid pick it up in the entire time I was there. Otherwise untouched.
Saw lots of PS4's being carried around, quite a few XB1's but the stack of Tomb Raider bundles wasn't being touched. I saw one kid pick it up in the entire time I was there. Otherwise untouched.
serversurfer
Member
I think you misread him. 303k Bones were sold, and of those, a significant number were Gears bundles.So, now we know Uncharted bundle is over 135,000, while Halo bundle sold 93,000 unit... Wonder what are the real numbers for Uncharted.
Very thanks! I asked so much for the GOW Ultimate sales.
So, now we can make a full comparation:
Gears of War - 1,000,000
Gears of War 2 - 1,560,000
Gears of War 3 - 1,800,000
Gears of War Judgement - 620,000
Gears of War Ultimate edition - 303,000
I don't think he said Gears sold 303k =/
serversurfer
Member
lol Well, then just to chime in on your edit…Uh. D:
Yeah, i writes fast lol, ignore my post.
We also now know that Rock Band sold at least 122k, and whatever the specific amount, it was "nearly the same" as the 121k that Guitar Hero sold.
So Cosmic about those Halo numbers you mentioned you wouldn't be surprised to see today ...
I don't think they happened. I've got a fever and the only cure is more digital sales data.
I don't think they happened. I've got a fever and the only cure is more digital sales data.
Primethius
Banned
Another Best Buy and PS4s are pretty much flying off the shelves. XB1's not doing so bad either.
And no one is touching the Tomb Raider stack. It's in pristine condition.
And no Diablo 3 either dammit.
And no one is touching the Tomb Raider stack. It's in pristine condition.
And no Diablo 3 either dammit.
Wait what? Uncharted Collection bundle sold more than the Halo 5 bundle? Really?
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Tomb Raider is gonna be a flop in the U.S. It's not gonna sell until they slash the price.
PS4 looks like the winner, but both platforms will do very well.
Welfare
Member
We now know that Halo 5 without the bundle was 842k.
I really don't know what the FUCK they were doing with TR.
Out of curiosity, how does that compare to first NPD Titanfall and Destiny Xbox One sales?
It you look at the pricing Uncharted bundle was the budget bundle while Halo 5 was a premium bundle.
Dropping the ball?
Right but I'm talking about the digital sales info Cosmic was hinting about