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PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why

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Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
yes, which is why:

1) We have to do a little better with white voters (esp WWC voters) who are more overrepresented in the Senate.

2) minimize any losses in 2018 (ideally, we lose no seats, gain NV/AZ), and then win bigly in 2020. Which:

2020_Senate_election_map.png


More offense than defense.

I see no pickups.
 
Yup.

Though remember, Maine is Collins.

One of the reasons why I want her to run for governor. That'll free up Maine as a possible pickup.

Realistically, is the ceiling for winning Senate seats in 2020 four states (ME, NC, CO, and GA)? Most of the states on that map are in the Deep South and the Midwest.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
*points to Colorado*

If we can hold fast this coming year that's all we need.
Ooo one pickup

Face it. This country is fucked as long as there are states no people want to move to. Idaho? That state will always have two rethuglicans!!!
 
yes, which is why:

1) We have to do a little better with white voters (esp WWC voters) who are more overrepresented in the Senate.

2) minimize any losses in 2018 (ideally, we lose no seats, gain NV/AZ), and then win bigly in 2020. Which:

2020_Senate_election_map.png


More offense than defense.

Looking at that map, I feel like 2020 is the "now or never" point where we go in hard on flipping the southern states.

Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia, Maine (if Collins runs for Gov/retires), Iowa (potentially).

Also Alaska, Texas, Montana, Kansas, and I say fuck it lets start building the "blue southern line" in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and South Carolina.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
The good news on Paris is that we don't even need it. All the states that are actual centers of industry will join anyway.
 
DOJ never told Comey of concerns before axing him and now he's 'angry,' sources say


In the dead of winter several months ago -- before either one officially joined the Justice Department -- Jeff Sessions and Rod Rosenstein met to discuss replacing James Comey as FBI director. Then in a February meeting at the White House, Rosenstein and President Donald Trump further "discussed" Comey’s "deeply troubling" and "serious mistakes," Rosenstein wrote in his now-infamous letter recommending that Comey be fired.

But it turns out Rosenstein and Sessions never discussed such concerns with one key person: Comey himself.

Specifically, according to sources familiar with the matter, at no point in the weeks and months before Comey's termination did Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein or Attorney General Sessions tell Comey they were uneasy about his leadership or upset over what Rosenstein later called Comey’s "mistaken" decision to announce the results of the FBI investigation into Hillary Clinton's private email server last year.

The failure to flag any such concerns to Comey before terminating him is part of what makes the former FBI director feel so blindsided. It's also part of the story he's planning to tell lawmakers next week when -- barring a last-minute schedule change -- he testifies publicly for the first time about his axing, and about alleged collusion between Trump associates and elements of the Russian government to influence last year's presidential election.

As one source put it: He’s "angry," and he wants the public to understand why.

Some of what he may discuss seems more personal, such as a recounting of how he learned he was fired -- he saw the news on TV while addressing FBI agents in Los Angeles. His wife also found out by watching TV, while her husband was on the other side of the country.

But most of Comey's testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee on Thursday is expected to touch on grave matters of national security and allegations of espionage and improper influence.

He's expected to echo remarks made last week from former CIA Director John Brennan, who told lawmakers he was "worried" after the U.S. intelligence committee discovered "a number of" contacts between Trump associates and Russian operatives.

Sources familiar with Comey's thinking said he's also ready to discuss whether he felt pressure from Trump or other administration officials to curtail the FBI's probe of alleged ties between the Russian government and members of Trump’s circle.

In particular, Comey is preparing to answer questions over memos he drafted detailing some of his conversations with Trump.

...

thisgonnabegud
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
I'm pessimistic as fuck, but we did keep the senate in 2012. So, an iota of hopium? Pls?
 

NeoXChaos

Member
yes, which is why:

1) We have to do a little better with white voters (esp WWC voters) who are more overrepresented in the Senate.

2) minimize any losses in 2018 (ideally, we lose no seats, gain NV/AZ), and then win bigly in 2020. Which:

2020_Senate_election_map.png


More offense than defense.

look at all those red safe states. Only ME(Provided Collins retires), CO, NC and maybe GA? are pickups.

KS is a likely open seat but that place hasn't sent a D since FDR's first midterm.

Ernst in IA is going to cruise with that states leach to the right.
 

Bladelaw

Member
Just so people don't get overconfident this is the kind of stupid that we're trying to combat:

In NH tomorrow is a free fishing day which means you don't need a license to fish. The responses were...well here you go.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
One of the reasons why I want her to run for governor. That'll free up Maine as a possible pickup.

Realistically, is the ceiling for winning Senate seats in 2020 four states (ME, NC, CO, and GA)? Most of the states on that map are in the Deep South and the Midwest.

Alaska had Sullivan beat Begich only 3.2 points in 2014, a year republicans won the national house vote by 5.7 points. Maybe possible to recreate that situation but with a better national environment.

Iowa has had democrats getting destroyed lately, but I don't know if it's worth giving up just because Hillary Clinton and Bruce Braley were so terrible there. Forget beating Grassley of course, but Ernst should be vulnerable.
 
We still chasing the NC senate dream?

Voter suppression in that state feels like the most successful in the entire country. The GOP there are basically an organized crime racket.

If Cooper can win, then theoretically Dems could win in NC.

Also, isnt their gerrymandering struck down?

And I am serious about the fact that Dems need to start more serious investing in the Southern states. It's not like West Virginia where the population is 98%. There is already a big base of minority voters in the south who want to support democrats. Hell, Tennessee almost Elected a Democrat to the Senate back in 2006. If we can drive our turnout high enough and depress their turnout low enough, we can win in southern states with the "Southern Blue Line".

Meanwhile Montana only elected the republican last week by 6 points and I'm supposed to believe we should try for the Senate seat there in 2020?
 
To add to whyamihere's list, I'd also suggest Montana and Alaska, albeit as further reach targets. Bullock and Begich are probably the best candidates we could hope for in each state.

And if AHCA ends up passing, we could try adding WV, AR and LA. Maybe KY and TX (actually TX before all of those tbh, but it's the only one that doesn't have the Medicaid expansion). Tar and feather them with that shit.

Saw Theresa May whipped out the old chestnut "The only poll that matters is on Election Day." Not expecting a Labour win but I imagine this backfiring hard in the end on May.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
If Cooper can win, then theoretically Dems could win in NC.

Also, isnt their gerrymandering struck down?

And I am serious about the fact that Dems need to start more serious investing in the Southern states. It's not like West Virginia where the population is 98%. There is already a big base of minority voters in the south who want to support democrats. Hell, Tennessee almost Elected a Democrat to the Senate back in 2006. If we can drive our turnout high enough and depress their turnout low enough, we can win in southern states with the "Southern Blue Line".

Meanwhile Montana only elected the republican last week by 6 points and I'm supposed to believe we should try for the Senate seat there in 2020?

Why does gerrymandering matter for a statewide election? It's more like racist voter suppression assholishness.
 
Wouldn't be shocked to see Kansas turn a bit bluer in 18/20

Brownback really did a number on the state


(This also gives me an opportunity to post a neat piece of art)

At the very least, Kansas is definitely going to elect a Democratic Governor soon. The fact that you have so many people pushing against Brownback's shit means that he won't last.

Why does gerrymandering matter for a statewide election? It's more like racist voter suppression assholishness.

Point is that part of voter suppression is the gerrymandering itself.

But my point still stands that Cooper still won.

Also, while I'm sure voter suppression happened and played a role, a lot of 2016 across the country was Trump's fanbase turning out in very high numbers while our side was much less enthusiastic to vote.
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
We still chasing the NC senate dream?

Voter suppression in that state feels like the most successful in the entire country. The GOP there are basically an organized crime racket.

Pennsylvania was considered republican fools gold until Trump won it and Toomey won a second term there.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Man, Trump's win has really made Jennifer Rubin lose her damn mind.

She's actually sounding...like a normal human being now! :O
 

kirblar

Member
Man, Trump's win has really made Jennifer Rubin lose her damn mind.

She's actually sounding...like a normal human being now! :O
A lot of right-wing Jewish folk had reality smacked into them by the mass anti-semitism flooding out of the right wing. during the election.
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
But the share of the 3rd party vote seems significantly higher than the 2017 polls are proving. Like, if both the Tories and Labour get over 40%, that's pretty insane.

Isn't it basically first past the post like the US? What was the system keeping those 3rd parties alive in the first place?

Sorry, I don't really understand how the UK government works.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Isn't it basically first past the post like the US? What was the system keeping those 3rd parties alive in the first place?

Sorry, I don't really understand how the UK government works.

First past the post applies at the level at which the candidate is elected, which is not necessarily the national level. The UK is a parliamentary system - we have 650 simultaneous elections, and the winners then select the Prime Minister. That means you'd expect Duverger's law to apply at constituency level - in any given constituency, you'd expect about two serious parties. This is broadly true - there are almost no three-way marginals in the United Kingdom, so in that respect, Duverger's Law holds strong. Most seats are Lab vs Con, Con vs Lib, or Lib vs Lab - there's almost no Lab vs Con vs Lib.

What prompts the US to have two parties nationally is the presidential system and electoral college. Suppose you had 4 parties running for President - Socialists, Liberals, Conservative, and Tea Partiers for the sake of convenience. If you're a Liberal and the Socialist Party is slightly bigger, it always makes sense for your Presidential candidate to pull out, because that guarantees a Socialist win given the other two parties are divided. In other words, the presidential system acts a giant nation-wide FPTP post to make Duverger's Law apply to the whole country.

In the UK, with a parliamentary system, the Liberal Democrats can work in a coalition with Labour to select the Prime Minister. They don't have to withdraw from Parliament for Labour to form government. So Duverger's law doesn't extend beyond the initial local level.
 

Vimes

Member
So even the unmasking shit was more projection. Astonishing how the GOP can still find ways to surprise me with their pettiness.
 
Isn't it basically first past the post like the US? What was the system keeping those 3rd parties alive in the first place?

Sorry, I don't really understand how the UK government works.
Historically, there haven't been significant third parties since WWII.

CBDVZPFW4AAKbbt.png


The lib dems only really got big after an economic crash thrashed Europe and the conservatives lost a huge amount of seats to labor and Tony Blair. I think the lib dems captured people who didn't want to become labor but were sick of conservative economic mishandling.

The Scottish national party does extremely well in Scotland for obvious reasons.

UKIP is a recent phenomena because of the refugee crisis and terrorism in North Africa and the middle east.

The only reason this is possible is because in the UK it's Parliament which selects a Prime Minister, not popular vote, so governments are formed by coalitions of MPs.
 
First past the post applies at the level at which the candidate is elected, which is not necessarily the national level. The UK is a parliamentary system - we have 650 simultaneous elections, and the winners then select the Prime Minister. That means you'd expect Duverger's law to apply at constituency level - in any given constituency, you'd expect about two serious parties. This is broadly true - there are almost no three-way marginals in the United Kingdom, so in that respect, Duverger's Law holds strong. Most seats are Lab vs Con, Con vs Lib, or Lib vs Lab - there's almost no Lab vs Con vs Lib.

What prompts the US to have two parties nationally is the presidential system and electoral college. Suppose you had 4 parties running for President - Socialists, Liberals, Conservative, and Tea Partiers for the sake of convenience. If you're a Liberal and the Socialist Party is slightly bigger, it always makes sense for your Presidential candidate to pull out, because that guarantees a Socialist win given the other two parties are divided. In other words, the presidential system acts a giant nation-wide FPTP post to make Duverger's Law apply to the whole country.

In the UK, with a parliamentary system, the Liberal Democrats can work in a coalition with Labour to select the Prime Minister. They don't have to withdraw from Parliament for Labour to form government. So Duverger's law doesn't extend beyond the initial local level.
man fuck our constitution

Give me a parliament or give me death
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
"ridings"

constituencies

we'll have the queen discipline canada shortly
 
Speaking of maps!!!!!



DBWf6tqUMAISRGI.jpg:large


DBWf8ZKU0AAodCn.jpg:large

Look at all that fucking blue in the south. we absolutely have to be making plays for the southern states ASAP. And not just Texas either. Look at both those Maps. Hypotheically, we could actually win states like South Carolina or Mississippi with the right kind of turnout.
 
Look at all that fucking blue in the south. we absolutely have to be making plays for the southern states ASAP. And not just Texas either. Look at both those Maps. Hypotheically, we could actually win states like South Carolina or Mississippi with the right kind of turnout.
LOOK AT ALL THAT BLUE IN ALASKA, IS IT WITHIN REACH?!

come on man

"ridings"

constituencies

we'll have the queen discipline canada shortly
At least unlike older sister, they came close to getting the party colors right. NDP really should be red though.
 
Look at all that fucking blue in the south. we absolutely have to be making plays for the southern states ASAP. And not just Texas either. Look at both those Maps. Hypotheically, we could actually win states like South Carolina or Mississippi with the right kind of turnout.
I don't want to be in the same party as the average person from South Carolina or Mississippi.
 
LOOK AT ALL THAT BLUE IN ALASKA, IS IT WITHIN REACH?!

come on man

At least unlike older sister, they came close to getting the party colors right. NDP really should be red though.

The blue in Alaska is obviously the parts where no one lives.

The same absolutely does not fucking apply to the blue in those southern states.

I don't want to be in the same party as the average person from South Carolina or Mississippi.

Except we are talking about voters who according to that map heavily rejected Trump.
 
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