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September 2012 NPD Predictions - Closes October 8

donny2112

Member
What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Monday, October 8th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: August 26-September 29 (5 weeks, August was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: October 11th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT

IMPORTANT: As of May 2012's results, NPD is now directly including Wal-Mart data in their totals. Previously they were only estimating for Wal-Mart, so there could be some significant changes in relative performance compared to previous years.

Format:

[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PSV]
[WII]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[360] 300K        [360] 300 thousand
[360] 300,000     [360] 300.000
[360] 300000      [360] - 300000


Potential hardware impacting events in September:
PS3 Slim 2.0 released @ $270 on September 25 - 5 days


August's Results - thanks to duckroll, Nintendo, allan-bh, and Mpl90

Hardware:
Xbox 360: 193k (-37.3%)
3DS: Above 170K (last month minimum * 1.36 due to 36% increase from Nintendo PR), below 235K (last year). It is likely notably closer to 170K given Nintendo gave a specific percentage.

3DS: 36% over June would make it ~178K. 44% of that was 3DSXL from NPD PR, so 3DSXL was ~78K.
We only know this:

PS3- 140k-150k

Wii- 60k-70k
Vita did less than TLS, which did less than 40k.

August 2011 NPD thread
September 2011 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
[360] 250k
[3DS] 190k
[PS3] 180k
[PSV] 45k
[WII] 55k

3DS's sales will probably be the most interesting this month since I doubt the new slim will do much.
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
Just in case anyone wants to know my opinion on what sales were last month. As always, this is my opinion, based on a variety of sources, and should in no way be construed as official data. Rounded to nearest multiple of 5K.

Xbox 360: 195K
3DS: 180K
PS3: 145K
NDS: 100K
Wii: 65K
PSV: 35K

In every case, I believe these are overestimates.

Test.
 

donny2112

Member
Never follow these things but noticed the trend that goes 360,3ds,ps3...is that how it usually plays out each month?

3DS was third for a while until last month, I think. Basically, they've all been stinking, and it's just a matter of where their stinkage lined up next to each other from month to month. Maybe things will get better with the Fall buying season coming up.

[Wii-U]: 0

It'll be [WIU] when it happens. :p
 

Rarity

Member
Might as well give this a shot:

[360] 202K
[3DS] 188K
[PS3] 173K
[PSV] 43K
[WII] 67K

And, just for my own reference:
[NDS] 112K
 

donny2112

Member
Why dont we have prediction for new game releases ?

Used to when software data was more available, but now we're lucky to see combined platform sales of 2-3 titles in the Top 10. And which 2-3 would be random. Therefore, there'd be a lot of "Oh, we didn't get that number, so can't do anything with it" problems. At least with hardware, we usually get most or all of the numbers for current systems.
 

Pranay

Member
Used to when software data was more available, but now we're lucky to see combined platform sales of 2-3 titles in the Top 10. And which 2-3 would be random. Therefore, there'd be a lot of "Oh, we didn't get that number, so can't do anything with it" problems. At least with hardware, we usually get most or all of the numbers for current systems.

Atleast we can predict Their positions the NPD if not numbers.

Predicting hardware number only is a bit boring but well thats my opinion.
 
Atleast we can predict Their positions the NPD if not numbers.

Predicting hardware number only is a bit boring but well thats my opinion.

Actually maybe a positional prediction for software could be fun, then again half the time I don't remember to get my predictions in for this
 
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