Support NeoGAF

[VXLbeast]

What?

Nintendo Land
NSMBU/NSLU
ZombiU
Lego City
Monster Hunter 3 U
Pikmin 3
Wonderful 101
Wind Waker HD
Rayman Legends (Definitive version)
Super Mario 3D World
Wii ____ U

2014 and later announced:
DKC Tropical Freeze
Mario Kart 8
Super Smash Bros.
X
Bayonetta 2
Yarn Yoshi
FE x SMT
Zelda U

+ Wii U VC
+ Wii VC and BC
+ CoD, Batman, AssCreed, Watch Dogs, Project Cars, NFS:MWU (definitive console version), Deus Ex, etc.

That list is rough. I can only speak for myself, so that's what I'll do: the only two things on that list that excite me are Wii U Zelda and FE X SMT, and we know nothing about either of those games.

And I don't need to speak for consumers, because they speak with their wallets, and so far they've spoken loud and clear. Challenging the quality of the Wii U's lineup has become taboo around here recently, but there is a problem whether people choose to see it or not.

 

[Sergiepoo]

If the wii wasn't a temporary novelty that's worn off where is the overwhelming demand for rhythm and waggle based games? Why has kinect 2 not been a success so far? Why has move become an afterthought? Why is guitar hero and dance games seeing huge drops in sales and social relevance?

Mobile games are booming based largely on casual games with low barriers to entry.

There may not be a smoking gun to prove the correlation is causation that many of the casual gamers who bought a wii are now on mobile but there's a lot of smoke to suggest there is a fire.

I don't think either the Move or Kinect are proper successors to the Wiimote. The Move as I understand it is pretty much identical to the Wii Motion+ control, but it doesn't have the brand recognition of the Wii remote. However, neither Sony or MS are giving their motion control schemes any proper support. They're still treated as peripherals for the occasional one-off game, and these games don't have the same recognition as the Wii's more successful games.

The collapse of rhythm games is not really comparable since those controls can only do one genre really well, whereas not even Nintendo tapped into the full potential of motion controls. Plus, Activision ran that genre into the ground and saturated the market.

We'll never know now if motion controls can carry a console anymore because the big three have dropped any serious support for them. As you said, one of the most important things attracting casuals is the low barrier to entry, and the main control scheme for all three consoles have high barriers to entry.

 

[Loco4Coco]

I said I would personally like SM 64 2 but I think Nintendo NEEDS a "brand new" 3D mario game that is as ambitious and monumental as 64 was

So you want Super Mario 3D World?

 

[greg400]

Come on it's just not good enough, here is the first year of releases for the GameCube in the US

Err... My list is not the entire first year Wii U library. I only listed exclusive Wii U games held in high regard or a brief list of the general multiplats.

 

[Darryl]

I said I would personally like SM 64 2 but I think Nintendo NEEDS a "brand new" 3D mario game that is as ambitious and monumental as 64 was

Well if these sales aren't just confined to one territory or don't improve I would think Nintendo needs something more than a 3D Mario, period.

 

[Aaronrules380]

I said I would personally like SM 64 2 but I think Nintendo NEEDS a "brand new" 3D mario game that is as ambitious as 64.

I think it's ridiculous to expect ANY game to be able to have as much impact as 64 nowadays. That was pretty much the first big 3d video game ever. Short of pure virtual reality (which I don't see ever really happening, at least not for a long time), I'm really not convinced that you could get that sort of impact. I think the problem is that Gamer's expect every Nintendo game to have the same impact as SM64 or OoT when quite frankly, that isn't possible because there will never be anything to compare to the jump from 2d to 3d, at least short of VR

 

[Snakeyes]

Maybe, maybe not. There is competition to be had within the software field to keep quality up. And maybe some of Nintendo's more niche franchises might be able to find a larger fanbase on more then one platform.

Yeah, maybe. Even though we've had plenty of examples to the contrary.

And Sega and Nintendo are very different companies with different goals and people in charge. Maybe Nintendo could do better then Sega.

And maybe SNK could have done better than Hudson when they dropped the TurboGrafx/PC Engine by dropping NeoGeo hardware. And maybe Capcom's arcade-style output wouldn't have dwindled if they stopped making CPS boards. And maybe Sega could've done better than any of those companies by going third party.

Of course, there's technically nothing that outright prevents Nintendo from becoming a massively successful third party developer... but there is more historical precedent for Nintendo going back to dominating the industry with a balanced console than for a hardware and software developer flourishing after going software-only.

 

[VXLbeast]

Come on it's just not good enough, here is the first year of releases for the GameCube in the US

Luigi's Mansion
Super Monkey Ball
Wave Race: Blue Storm
Super Smash Bros. Melee
Pikmin
FIFA 2002
All-Star Baseball 2002
Batman Vengeance
Crazy Taxi
Dave Mirra Freestyle BMX 2
Disney's Tarzan Untamed
Madden NFL 2002
NHL Hitz 20-02
Star Wars Rogue Leader: Rogue Squadron II
Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 3
Extreme-G 3
SSX Tricky
Universal Studios Theme Parks Adventure
Animal Crossing
NFL Quarterback Club 2002
The Simpsons: Road Rage
Sonic Adventure 2 Battle
Cel Damage
NBA Courtside 2002
ESPN International Winter Sports 2002
Dark Summit
Virtua Striker 2002
NBA Street
18 Wheeler: American Pro Trucker
Smashing Drive
Jeremy McGrath Supercross World
Cubivore
All-Star Baseball 2003
Gauntlet: Dark Legacy
Spy Hunter
James Bond 007: Agent Under Fire
Bloody Roar: Primal Fury
Home Run King
NFL Blitz 20-02
Sega Soccer Slam
Pac-Man World 2
NBA 2K2
Rave Master
Resident Evil
Donald Duck: Goin' Quackers
ESPN MLS ExtraTime 2002
Mystic Heroes
Driven
Spider-Man
Lost Kingdoms
Burnout
2002 FIFA World Cup
ZooCube
Legends of Wrestling
Bomberman Generation
WWE WrestleMania X8
EA Sports F1
Tetris Worlds
Eternal Darkness: Sanity's Requiem
RedCard 20-03
MX Superfly
Capcom vs. SNK 2 EO
Disney Sports Soccer
Beach Spikers
Super Mario Sunshine
NCAA Football 2003
Evolution Worlds
UFC: Throwdown
Aggressive Inline
Disney's Party
Smuggler's Run: Warzones
Disney's Magical Mirror Starring Mickey Mouse
Madden NFL 2003
NFL Blitz 20-03
NFL 2K3
Super Monkey Ball 2
WTA Tour Tennis
Turok: Evolution
MLB Slugfest 20-03
Pac-Man Fever
Freekstyle
NCAA College Football 2K3
Ty the Tasmanian Tiger
The Scorpion King: Rise of the Akkadian
Egg Mania: Eggstreme Madness
Phantasy Star Online Episode I & II
Big Air Freestyle
Worms Blast
Monsters Inc. Scream Arena
Kelly Slater's Pro Surfer
NHL Hitz 20-03
Scooby-Doo! Night of 100 Frights
Crash Bandicoot: The Wrath of Cortex
Disney Sports Skateboarding
NASCAR Thunder 2003
Star Fox Adventures
Rayman Arena
Rocket Power: Beach Bandits
4x4 EVO 2
Need for Speed: Hot Pursuit 2
NHL 2003
Pro Rally 2002
Taz Wanted
NBA 2K3
Godzilla: Destroy All Monsters Melee
Mat Hoffman's Pro BMX 2
NBA Live 2003
Knockout Kings 2003
Namco Museum
Backyard Football
Robotech: Battlecry
BloodRayne
Casper: Spirit Dimensions
X-Men: Next Dimension
TimeSplitters 2
Mario Party 4
Swingerz Golf
Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 4
Top Gun: Combat Zones
Pool Edge
Tiger Woods PGA Tour 2003
Star Wars: The Clone Wars
Outlaw Golf
Shrek: Extra Large
Defender
Zapper
Spyro: Enter the Dragonfly
Medal of Honor: Frontline
Resident Evil Zero
Sonic Mega Collection
Hot Wheels Velocity X
Wreckless: The Yakuza Missions
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets
Die Hard: Vendetta
Darkened Skye
Evolution Skateboarding
Metroid Prime
Mortal Kombat: Deadly Alliance
Rocky
Baldur's Gate: Dark Alliance
Hunter: The Reckoning
James Bond 007: NightFire

Holy shit that's telling.

So you want Super Mario 3D World?

This is going to be parroted into forever. : /

 

[scytherage]

That's really sad. This was the best Mario game yet and worthy of the monicker of 'next gen', and they did it on technically weaker hardware, which is quite an achievement.

 

[Tom Nook Sawyer]

So you want Super Mario 3D World?

There is nothing ambitious about Mario 3D World

 

[Jonm1010]

I think the DIY attitude common around tech sites due to a vague familiarity with most of the technology involved causes people to think this stuff is much cheaper than it is. These games are global products. They're far from cheap.



Kinect 1 did amazing though. Kinect 2 probably hasn't been a success because it's not exactly appealing to that casual audience right now. Too pricey. I thought rhythm games were doing great. I thought Rocksmith and Just Dance 2014 were both doing fantastic. I think you've got to get your head out a bit.

Guitar and dance games have been seeing a steady decline for years now.

Just like the novelty of waggle controls, the novelty of rhythm and guitar games has wanned. Sure there is still a market that exists but it's now made up of dedicated fans of that genre not the casual gamer induced fever pitch the genres used to have.

Waggle was a novelty that was quickly elevated thanks to casual gamers and clearly was quickly put aside as well. The reasons for both are still fuzzy and the idea that the consumer base that made up the wii can be recaptured is also unclear.

But clearly recent attempts have failed and maybe that's just because of poor execution or maybe it's a sign that it's not possible to recapture it in that way again.

One thing is certain though, Nintendo put its eggs in that basket instead of catering to the long term and established gamer and now that they don't have that casual market anymore they are left with nothing but their diehards and little else with little on the horizon that I see making a significant positive impact to gain significant market share.

 

[Nibel]

I said I would personally like SM 64 2 but I think Nintendo NEEDS a "brand new" 3D mario game that is as ambitious and monumental as 64 was

It's the best reviewed game this fall, it's one of the best reviewed games of all time, I really don't think this is about the quality of the game Anti

 

[Vibranium]

Yikes. 3D World looks and apparently plays freaking amazing, so that shows how much Nintendo dropped the ball with the Wii U. It makes me want the system though!
EAD Tokyo are the masters though, glad to see everyone on GAF is loving the game despite early sales reports. I guess we'll see how it does with more time.

 

[Anticitizen One]

So you want Super Mario 3D World?

Don't play "gotcha" games with me. You know exactly what i'm talking about.

3D world isn't a monumental leap forward its just repeating what Nintendo has been doing with NSMB fused with the aesthetics and level design of Mario 3D Land on the 3DS. There is a reason why its even scoring lower than the Galaxy games.

 

[Baron von Loathsome]

I said I would personally like SM 64 2 but I think Nintendo NEEDS a "brand new" 3D mario game that is as ambitious and monumental as 64 was

I don't even think that's possible.

 

[Ishan]

Me = someone who really wants to play a mario game.
Me = someone who isn't willing to buy a wii u unless it was like 50 bucks. Infact if anything my priority is ps4 then xbone/try out steam controller

Me = partly the type of person which is causing bad sales for nintendo. (My first console was a snes but I shifted to ps and stayed put on that side + PC multiplayer)

Me = now hide ... before i get shanked.

 

[Anticitizen One]

It's the best reviewed game this fall, it's one of the best reviewed games of all time, I really don't think this is about the quality of the game Anti

The game is good but its not a "game changer" like Mario games should be

 

[greg400]

Holy shit that's telling.

Not really.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Wii_U_games

 

[Anticitizen One]

I don't even think that's possible.

Of course it is possible

 

[Nerazar]

Holy shit that's telling.

Yeah, I kind of want "Swingerz Golf" on my WiiU... :/

Anything else to contribute to the "Nintendo is doomed"-choir?

 

[Emitan]

Don't play "gotcha" games with me. You know exactly what i'm talking about.

3D world isn't a monumental leap forward its just repeating what Nintendo has been doing with NSMB fused with the aesthetics and level design of Mario 3D Land on the 3DS. There is a reason why its even scoring lower than the Galaxy games.

It's sitting at 94 vs 97 for both Galaxy games. Hardly a difference.

 

[-Eddman-]

Some of the talk about Nintendo and Mario games here take me all the way back to 2002-2003 and the Cube days. Drinky Crow would be proud of the trolling abilities of some of you guys.

Japanese sales are pretty disappointing so far. I don't have information about Japan, but I hope Nintendo's marketing over there is better than what I have seen here in America (close to zero). This game is good and could have been helped with a big marketing push, wer're talking about freaking MARIO, the risk is worth it.

 

[Verendus]

I think we should just accept that Mario isn't a system seller anymore. He's just that plumber who doesn't ever do any real work. He's overweight, has a pronunciation problem, and is offensive to Europeans and now the world at large.

 

[Aaronrules380]

The game is good but its not a "game changer" like Mario games should be

I like how you've ignored how everyone has pointed out how fucking unrealistic you're expectations are. It is literally impossible to make a game as fresh and innovative as Mario 64 was for it's time. Mario 64 was the first big 3D title EVER. I don't know how you can suggest there is a jump as big for video games as shifting from 2d to 3d that can be done with modern tech

 

[Sendou]

Don't play "gotcha" games with me. You know exactly what i'm talking about.

3D world isn't a monumental leap forward its just repeating what Nintendo has been doing with NSMB fused with the aesthetics and level design of Mario 3D Land on the 3DS. There is a reason why its even scoring lower than the Galaxy games.

Whole 3 points lower Metascore. You think we can draw some conclusions there? What kind of fundamental leaps are left to do with 3D Mario's with the current hardware? Interesting questions.

 

[Anticitizen One]

I like how you've ignored how everyone has pointed out how fucking unrealistic you're expectations are. It is literally impossible to make a game as fresh and innovative as Mario 64 was for it's time. Mario 64 was the first big 3D title EVER. I don't know how you can suggest there is a jump as big for video games as shifting from 2d to 3d that can be done with modern tech

BULLSHIT. While a different genre, Grant Theft Auto 3 was a huge game changer and that came years after Super Mario 64.

You are like the people who said no movie would ever be more profitable than Titanic because of X,Y, and Z reasons and then Avatar showed up and proved the naysayers wrong.

If everyone said "thats impossible" we would still be playing genesis and snes games

 

[Ishan]

I think we should just accept that Mario isn't a system seller anymore. He's just that plumber who doesn't ever do any real work. He's overweight, has a pronunciation problem, and is offensive to Europeans and now the world at large.

quoted for truth . lmao.

 

[Nerazar]

Don't play "gotcha" games with me. You know exactly what i'm talking about.

3D world isn't a monumental leap forward its just repeating what Nintendo has been doing with NSMB fused with the aesthetics and level design of Mario 3D Land on the 3DS. There is a reason why its even scoring lower than the Galaxy games.

And there must be a reason why most games on this planet are scoring lower than the Galaxy games, am I right?

I guess, the only next "true", "monumental" Mario game has to achieve about 105% at metacritic, hm?

 

[Baron von Loathsome]

Of course it is possible

Then tell me how you can top a traditionally 2D series shifting to 3D level design while setting the standard for the majority of 3D, third-person video games for nearly the next 20 years, in terms of ambition?

 

[Sergiepoo]

LOL, now you wait a minute here.

Compare the hardware inside of the PS3, to the hardware inside of the PS4, & you'll see that there isn't a "incremental leap" between each other. Plus Sony have learned their mistakes after what happened to them with the PS3.

None of the changes that Sony made for the PS4 is going to make it significantly different from its predecessor except perhaps better software support. The only new thing, and the thing that the general audience is going to see, is the marginal improvement in graphics. The same "gimmick" that traditional consoles have relied on since the begging of time.

 

[Tom Nook Sawyer]

I like how you've ignored how everyone has pointed out how fucking unrealistic you're expectations are. It is literally impossible to make a game as fresh and innovative as Mario 64 was for it's time. Mario 64 was the first big 3D title EVER. I don't know how you can suggest there is a jump as big for video games as shifting from 2d to 3d that can be done with modern tech

Mario Galaxy basically did it (granted, not to the same degree, but it's the closest Nintendo's gotten and it suitably blew me away)

 

[richman555]

This is a very good Mario game. I think much of the problem is that many people do not own a Wii U. Ideally, Nintendo would have had a game like this at launch of the system. What this does indicate to me is that the Wii U has more issues surrounding the overall system itself and there is very little enthusiasm in the gaming world.

 

[The perfect Dark]

I think we should just accept that Mario isn't a system seller anymore. He's just that plumber who doesn't ever do any real work. He's overweight, has a pronunciation problem, and is offensive to Europeans and now the world at large.

2D Mario is still a system seller.
3D Mario never was (in Japan)

 

[SmokedMeat]

I like how you've ignored how everyone has pointed out how fucking unrealistic you're expectations are. It is literally impossible to make a game as fresh and innovative as Mario 64 was for it's time. Mario 64 was the first big 3D title EVER. I don't know how you can suggest there is a jump as big for video games as shifting from 2d to 3d that can be done with modern tech

Had Nintendo released a VR headset with a flagship Mario title at launch, instead of a gamepad, the U (I'd imagine the name would be different) could've been the hottest ticket around.

A VR Mario, and I don't mean some stupid Virtual Boy crap could've been huge. Especially considering how crazy the platform ing can get!

 

[Anticitizen One]

Then tell me how you can top a traditionally 2D series shifting to 3D level design while setting the standard for the majority of 3D, third-person video games for nearly the next 20 years?

I'm not paid to do the thinking for Nintendo but off the top of my head they could do something with VR like Sony and Occulus Rift are doing. They could have found a way to properly integrate true motion controls into a game instead of the gimmick of waggling a remote. Or they could just make the world more impressive and more alive with a lot of things to do similar to Grand Theft Auto 3 which was a HUGE landmark title.

There is no ambition at Nintendo right now. Its too conservative and they are just repeating themselves playing it safe. THAT is why they fail.

 

[Aaronrules380]

BULLSHIT. While a different genre, Grant Theft Auto 3 was a huge game changer and that came years after Super Mario 64.

You are like the people who said no movie would ever be more profitable than Titanic because of X,Y, and Z reasons and then Avatar showed up and proved the naysayers wrong.

If everyone said "thats impossible" we would still be playing genesis and snes games

WHole different genre is a huge point though. How do you make a game as innovative and fresh as a game that pretty much NOTHING as a foundational basis. The only way to create a game as fresh and ambitious as Mario 64 was is to make a game that has almost nothing in common with any other game out right now and pretty much no foundational core. That is pretty much impossible in this day and age. Mario 64 was revolutionary because it pioneered a genre. By definition, this is impossible to do more than once

 

[greg400]

Mario Galaxy basically did it (granted, not to the same degree, but it's the closest Nintendo's gotten and it suitably blew me away)

Gaben disagrees.

http://www.computerandvideogames.com/289924/whats-gabe-newells-favourite-game-of-all-time/

 

[Darryl]

Don't play "gotcha" games with me. You know exactly what i'm talking about.

3D world isn't a monumental leap forward its just repeating what Nintendo has been doing with NSMB fused with the aesthetics and level design of Mario 3D Land on the 3DS. There is a reason why its even scoring lower than the Galaxy games.

There's only so much you can do with the genre. Platformers are a simple concept. Nintendo went all out on the production values. They've did just about everything that one could reasonably expect. If it doesn't work, it was either the timing or consumers just don't care about games like that anymore.

There are still gaming genres with a lot of obvious improvement. For instance, I can easily see newer gamechanging sandbox titles or MMOs that could shock the world yet again. I think Nintendo will work on a new sandbox personally.

 

[megabytecr]

From what I have played, they did not keep any gameplay mechanic to themselves in SM3DW, they throw everything at it, amazing. I must say that actually if there is an issue with this game is that they could have used a gameplay mechanic/powerup a bit more, as every level has something different and amazing gameplaywise. But they change it so much that you keep saying to yourself, mmm more of that would have been great.

Makes me sad to read posts about this game not being creative.

 

[March of the Crabs]

Had Nintendo released a VR headset with a flagship Mario title at launch, instead of a gamepad, the U (I'd imagine the name would be different) could've been the hottest ticket around.

A VR Mario, and I don't mean some stupid Virtual Boy crap could've been huge. Especially considering how crazy the platform ing can get!

I can't fathom how a VR Mario would work unless it was first-person or something, but then it wouldn't really be Mario anymore. Itd be Super Lulzwagon and nobody wants to play that (except me).

 

[Aaronrules380]

Had Nintendo released a VR headset with a flagship Mario title at launch, instead of a gamepad, the U (I'd imagine the name would be different) could've been the hottest ticket around.

A VR Mario, and I don't mean some stupid Virtual Boy crap could've been huge. Especially considering how crazy the platform ing can get!

I noted VR as a thing. But I think there are a shitload of factors technologically that maker it an incredibly unattractive choice at the moment that won't really work well.

 

[Anticitizen One]

WHole different genre is a huge point though. How do you make a game as innovative and fresh as a game that pretty much NOTHING as a foundational basis. The only way to create a game as fresh and ambitious as Mario 64 was is to make a game that has almost nothing in common with any other game out right now and pretty much no foundational core. That is pretty much impossible in this day and age. Mario 64 was revolutionary because it pioneered a genre. By definition, this is impossible to do more than once

Well a less ambitious but still pretty good example is Super Mario Galaxy. That shook up the formula and introduced many new gameplay concepts.

 

[Tom Nook Sawyer]

Gaben disagrees.

http://www.computerandvideogames.com/289924/whats-gabe-newells-favourite-game-of-all-time/

So?

 

[catmincer]

Not really.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Wii_U_games

Which is inflated by

Exclusive = 44 (31 at retail)
Console exclusive and/or timed = 25 (2 at retail)
Multiplatform = 139 (79 at retail, 60 download-only))
Cancelled = 4

So if we compare physical releases there's 112 games.

 

[Agent Unknown]

I know main issue here is install base but Japanese gamers seem to be odd and fickle with mainline Mario games sometimes. Talk about crimes, they chose Mario Party 8 over SMG1 which outsold that game back in 2007 but then SMG2 had a much stronger debut years later with roughly 80k more sold than SMG1's launch. But yeah, this is not good, best the title can hope for there now is continued evergreen sales and better movement in the U.S.

 

[NotLiquid]

I think we should just accept that Mario isn't a system seller anymore. He's just that plumber who doesn't ever do any real work. He's overweight, has a pronunciation problem, and is offensive to Europeans and now the world at large.

Considering Mario was partially what ended up being the driving force of the 3DS, I can't really agree. Even games like Luigi's Mansion sold like crazy.

In the home console space you might have a point. There might be a bigger demand to be met in that area. But in terms of handhelds I'm not seeing it, especially since games like NSMB2 could still sell like hotcakes with crazy legs in Japan.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

I kind of feel like we know where 3D Mario sits in terms of selling power. It usually does solid numbers, but isn't really one of Nintendo's top sellers necessarily. I'm swamped at work, so hopefully someone can flesh this out for me. But going from memory, Galaxy sold about what, 10 - 11 million? Right up there with Smash. Well below 2D Mario (~29 million) and Mario Kart (~35 million). Galaxy 2 sold less than that. On the 3DS, 3D Land was beating New Super Mario 2, and both were at around 8 million or so.

All in all, I wouldn't view any failure of 3D World to sell as a referendum against Mario in as much as I'd view it as a referendum against the Wii U. I would honestly say that Mario Kart would be the last major test. If that underperforms, we know it's the platform. Though obviously we might suggest that there's a larger problem of platform fatigue. However, I put less stock into that given the decent success of the 3DS outings (though those obviously aren't doing as well as the Wii when you look at New Super Mario and Mario Kart 7).

 

[Aaronrules380]

Well a less ambitious but still pretty good example is Super Mario Galaxy. That shook up the formula and introduced many new gameplay concepts.

I really don't see Galaxy as being much more ambitious than this game though. Galaxy's only real innovation was gravity mechanics and that in and of itself isn't what made the game good (Hell, I think there were a ton of times where it was more disorienting for me than anything). Galaxy had a lot of cool little stage ideas and gimmicks, but no more than 3D world does. I love the galaxy games, they're utterly fantastic, but they really are nowhere as innovative as people say they are

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

We didn't. The ABSOLUTE LOWEST prediction that GAF made for Super Mario 3D World's first week is 108,000, and it only sold-through 106,967 units.

Thats why I don't believe the people that say this is expected. Next time people should place their predictions to see really if it was what they expected.

 

[Tom Nook Sawyer]

I would honestly say that Mario Kart would be the last major test. If that underperforms, we know it's the platform.

I would disagree; I would say Smash would be the final test. It's the only huge franchise by Nintendo that hasn't been released ad nauseam.