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Sony FY2016 financial results (60 million PS4 shipped LTD)
- Thread starter bombshell
- Start date
Toe-Knee
Member
I buy most games day 1 and don't care at all about bc. I have a launch ps3 with full bc and I tried a couple of games day one and then never again since.
That's awesome, my guess is after Knack 2 PS4 will reach 100 millions with no sweat.
wapplew
Member
They down 2m in forecast, Knack 2 delay confirm.
I estimate about the same, 102-105m by March 31st 2020.
I also think PS5 is slated for Nov 2019 after a Feb or March 2019 reveal, TLOU2 in the summer of 2019 on PS4 to help support sales.
Imo LTD we could be looking at 110-115m possibly, depending on the adoption rate of PS5.
Edit: the only possible reason I would see them waiting for 2020 would be a major upgrade not being ready to go for a few more months on AMD's side.
It just so happens that (in theory) the Greyhawk APU (7nm) with Zen+ and Navi is supposed to be ready to hit markets in 2019.
PS5 will almost certainly have full backwards compatibility with PS4, assuming PS5 uses some flavor of RyZen / Zen CPU architecture (x86) and AMD's next GPU architecture (Navi) builds on Polaris and Vega.
PS2 (MIPS, plus Vector Units) to PS3 (PowerPC and CELL SPEs) to PS4 (x86 Jaguar) were each major architectural changes. Going from Jaguar to Zen (both x86) won't be anything like previous transitions.
November 2020 seems like a good bet for launch, with ten times the performance of the base PS4 at a $400 price point. Developers get enough time to work on new games.
These things are not going to come together by late 2019 IMHO.
PS2 (MIPS, plus Vector Units) to PS3 (PowerPC and CELL SPEs) to PS4 (x86 Jaguar) were each major architectural changes. Going from Jaguar to Zen (both x86) won't be anything like previous transitions.
November 2020 seems like a good bet for launch, with ten times the performance of the base PS4 at a $400 price point. Developers get enough time to work on new games.
These things are not going to come together by late 2019 IMHO.
ethomaz
Banned
Toni
Member
Wow. Just...wow. 😂😂
family_guy
Member
I think BC helps alot when you have don't have a big library. At launch BC would probably push more people into upgrading early. However it becomes less and less important as your software grows. Xbox One and PS4 have been out since 2013. I think they have enough content that they don't need to use BC as a crutch. Additionally some of the best games from last gen have actually been ported/remastered anyway.
Mikey Jr.
Member
Hmmm, I've got 50 PSN games, and I can't play any of them on PS5. But I can play a ton of 360, XB1 games for super cheap on XB2!"
After March 2017? It has to be close or above 30 million. You way low balling it.
ethomaz
Banned
They are at 16.5m in US.
I can't see they crossing 30m yet... and Jan-Mar Sales combined were probably around 1m. I estimated ~26.5m at end of the year with NPD at 15.7m.
I'm using 58-60% of WW sales being US that is really high compared with early XB1 sales... that put me at the optimistic side.
Omnistalgic
Member
Yeah, I'm fairly "hardcore" and I use that word loosely here (a gamer that only plays COD & BF but for 1000 hours in Hardcore too) and I hardly ever go back to older games unless they are remastered and my absolute favorite experiences.
Gaming just hasn't gotten to a point yet IMO where it's like watching older movies. The visuals are still so important, it's just unpleasant to me going back, especially since most games are just refinements on what were playing yesteryear, not brand new experiences. I'd rather just play the up-to-date version.
Hopefully we get there soon with games though.
Also is Sony or Nintendo close to making an Apple like announcement of "We've now sold 1 billion phones."
Mass Effect
Member
This is exactly what I was thinking for a while now. MS can shout "most powerful console!" "Best place to play 3rd party games!" all they want, but if they're not actually allowed to show those games what difference does it make?
Because, as you mentioned, Sony has all the biggest 3rd party games snatched up for this holiday (that we know of) and will get to show them off on the Pro while Microsoft can only say "these games will look better on Scorpio! We can't mention them specifically nor can we show them, but trust us!" And while that may be true, the average person isn't going to have a clue. All they'll see is the games running on the PS4 Pro.
It's accessible via regular ds4 as well. Played through the entirety of it with my ex gf.
Well, Q1 had many awesome games, including few exclusives.
Reckheim
Member
I don't think anyone is arguing its not a great feature, it just doesn't sell consoles.
It was acceptable for PS3 because of the architecture making it impossible for PS4 to emulate it because of its relative weakness.
I think Sony does need BC at this stage however with digital and ecosystem becoming more important going forward.
MS are going all in on that front and Sony have to take some notes on how MS do things on that front.
If PS5 is exceptionally powerful, a PS3 emulator would should also be considered.
The standard consumer doesn't have both consoles, so this is not a choice they really have to make at all.
Regardless, I think PS5 will have BC
Few? Gravity Rush 2, NiOh, Horizon, two KH collection, tales of berseria, Yakuza 0 and MLB 17.
It was pretty busy to me.
I don't think so, man. I didn"t care for BC before but now I have a shit-ton of digital games, and like me many people. And more and more every year. I wanna play those on my PS5, and that alone would prevent me from going back to X-Box.
If I can't though I'd be so pissed I'll gladly go back...so BC is 100%.
Hydrargyrus
Member
I would say that now is bigger than 2:1
It's strange that the NPD results stopped leaking just right when MS started losing again...
Even as someone who loves the PS4, I am in constant shock of its market dominance. Sony read the market so much better than they did last gen.
The digital ecosystem is exactly why I think Sony will have BC next gen, especially since now they're doing iterative models. It'll also help them leverage their market position from this gen into success next gen. People won't want to lose their libraries.
I also suspect publishers will be putting some pressure on them for continued sales of catalogue games.
Service games are also a big deal and not being able to play them on the next console at launch would be a huge blow to their library out of the gate.
The digital ecosystem is exactly why I think Sony will have BC next gen, especially since now they're doing iterative models. It'll also help them leverage their market position from this gen into success next gen. People won't want to lose their libraries.
I also suspect publishers will be putting some pressure on them for continued sales of catalogue games.
Service games are also a big deal and not being able to play them on the next console at launch would be a huge blow to their library out of the gate.
The division is more than just hardware sales. Expanding the installled base leads to software revenue, and I'm sure R&D and production ramp costs for launching the Pro and PSVR last year cut into profitability. If this year is just about execution on an existing strategy with early design work on PS5 I can see greater profitability even with a price cut.
Obliterator
Member
Phenomenal performance. Interesting Sony is anticipating PS4 down YoY despite the huge release slate. Wonder if that rules out any significant price drops
hanspampel
Banned
why do so many here consider BC only as the ability to play old nostalgia games on the current gen console?
this is the current state, but this will change with the next generation
Overwatch, Read Dead Redemption 2, Destiny 2, Minecraft and all the other evergreen titel
BC is even more crucial for publisher than platformholder in todays business environment
and they won't like when the revenue from those titels will go down in 3 years just because you can't play the game anymore on your PS5.
If you don't and can't play the game anymore, you also don't and can't spend money on it anymore.
Nirolak posted the picture of publisher profitability dip when a new gen arrives.
that explains it perfectly. They don't want to have that happen ever again
no. not even half the way there
but Sony is getting to 500m
Nintendo could include handhelds to reach 1 billion "soon"
they are over 700m
this is the current state, but this will change with the next generation
Overwatch, Read Dead Redemption 2, Destiny 2, Minecraft and all the other evergreen titel
BC is even more crucial for publisher than platformholder in todays business environment
and they won't like when the revenue from those titels will go down in 3 years just because you can't play the game anymore on your PS5.
If you don't and can't play the game anymore, you also don't and can't spend money on it anymore.
Nirolak posted the picture of publisher profitability dip when a new gen arrives.
that explains it perfectly. They don't want to have that happen ever again
no. not even half the way there
but Sony is getting to 500m
Nintendo could include handhelds to reach 1 billion "soon"
they are over 700m
ethomaz
Banned
Well I believe in normal months Sony sells avg. 900k PS4... my view about that didn't changed since 2014.
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
I think that's exactly what it is. They're going to continue to maximize profits and let the games push the platform. Given the releases it's a solid plan
And why does every Sony sales thread fall into Bc talk constantly. It's a cool feature,it really is but come on
Yeah was thinking about the US:WW ratio. I just didn't realize that they were still around 16.5 million in US. Emerging (developing...rolls eyes) world is doing wonders for Sony this generation when Japan is apathetic towards home consoles and US is virtually a 50:50 split. Now to open studious in China and Latin America, see what those guys can do when they are not working on creating assets for other developers.
... P5.
Edit: nm P5 wasn't in Q1
My wallet still crying.
Bit calmer now, but still a few to come between now and late summer.
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
Few?
Locoroco,crash,wipeout,uncharted,yakuza kiwami,everybody's golf,nex machina.
I can't take no more man
KillerMan91
Member
Yes.
PS4 will be at 78 million if they hit the forecast and ship 18 million units
3DS will be at 72 million if they hit the forecast and ship 6 million units
PS4 should pass 3DS this holiday season. Also I have my doubts about Nintendo hitting that forecast because it would be only 1 million down yoy.
this is such a ridiculously small player base.. it's the backwards compatibility myth.
here's the problem. people buying consoles at launch are early adopters. they know a) they will never pay more for the console, b) they will never have fewer games for the console, c) they will never have fewer gamers to play with, and d) the console will never be as relatively feature deplete. And yet they STILL buy it. Do you think they are buying it with all of those negatives (arguably almost always more negatives than positives for a console launch) just to play old games on it?
early adopters by a large margin don't give a shit about BC. They will buy a less than average launch title more often than playing a previous generation game on the system.
then you have mid-to late adopters. I mean.. by the time they buy the console, the amount of software available at $20 or less is usually considerable. They are usually buying a console with packed in games. etc. These are budget gamers who surely would be more open to playing super cheap games from last gen, but by the time they get on board, there are already super cheap games from this gen.
The BC myth doesn't really exist except in a very niche group, mostly people more inclined to retro game. This is why the number of consoles that have included thorough BC have been very few compared to the consoles that included no BC, or limited and/or after the fact BC.
ethomaz
Banned
BC is a nice feature.
But it increase console sales? No. Nobody buy a new console to play old games... he can stay playing the old console without waste a $... you only buy new console to play new games or at least better graphics of new cross gen games.
But it increase revenue? No. It is the opposite... if you have BC you will probably wait more to buy a new game for your new console... while without BC you will probably something to pass the time until the blockbusters.
It is a feature that I want, you want and everybody wants but in a business perspective it is really a waste unless you want to make me, you and everybody happy (like MS needed to create peace with fans).
It did not sell games and the profit is too low to cover how they affect the profit of new games.
Early adopters (these that buy consoles in the first months) are all starving for new games to show off his new purchase... not BC.
But it increase console sales? No. Nobody buy a new console to play old games... he can stay playing the old console without waste a $... you only buy new console to play new games or at least better graphics of new cross gen games.
But it increase revenue? No. It is the opposite... if you have BC you will probably wait more to buy a new game for your new console... while without BC you will probably something to pass the time until the blockbusters.
It is a feature that I want, you want and everybody wants but in a business perspective it is really a waste unless you want to make me, you and everybody happy (like MS needed to create peace with fans).
It did not sell games and the profit is too low to cover how they affect the profit of new games.
Early adopters (these that buy consoles in the first months) are all starving for new games to show off his new purchase... not BC.
The Earthquake kinda screwed them, but I am still baffled by aggressive forcast. I mean good for them, but damn some of the turn around, like in Semiconductors, they are expecting is kind of insane.
At this point Sony should just do BC in PS5 or we are never going to hear the end of "unforced error". Their internal calculation on this might be that they lose certain percentage of market share in the US, but it's not going to matter in rest of world. At which point they get to sell older games as remaster at full price, which might be more profitable for them. Lower hardware numbers in US versus profitable reselling of older games. Of course reduction in PS+ revenue due to lower hardware sells in US is also important to consider.
ethomaz
Banned
$3.43bn in Q4 FY2016.
Yes it does. If PS5 doesnt play my entire PS4 catalogue from the get go I'm not buying it. Period.
Of course people mean in the general consumer context. It's a great feature but not a main driver in console sales.
And with these iterative consoles BC should be here to stay.
AyraSutoraifu
Member
Will PS2 ever be beaten?
All hail The Old King.
All hail The Old King.
I don't think you need to worry about this, you can clearly see the trend we are transitioning too is taking your entire game library with you when a new generation comes out.
The key word is should, which is why I'd refuse to buy a PS5 if it lacked BC, because then it's just Sony being petty. I completely understand PS4s lack of BC, but the next system requires it, IMO.
Unknown?
Member
Oh I'd like to see that. Link?
ethomaz
Banned
Do you really need a new system to play games from old system? I think it is fair to say you don't need to buy PS5 until there are a new game you really wish to play.