aaaaa0 said:
If BD doesn't comply with studio demands, then they'll just release everything on HD DVD and BD is doomed.
If HD DVD doesn't comply with studio demands, then they'll just release everything on BD, and HD DVD is doomed.
Yes that is certainly true ... my argument with regards to A/V manufacturers having power in this is more generalized however, and is assuming the above situation does not occur.
If neither comply, they'll just sit out the status quo and continue to release DVDs until the next big standard comes around asking for support.
While this is a possibility, the A/V companies could attempt to stick together and continue to exert pressure for some of their key points. In a standoff, it still eventually comes down to the A/V manufacturers having to actually produce a product, be it BluRay, HD-DVD, or some other platform in the future. My point is that if they stick together, they do have sufficient power to at least partially benefit from a compromise.
Basically, both sides obviously need each other. My point being that the A/V and PC companies may well do better in a waiting game, as they can still release product into other markets. The studios do not have that luxury.
Obviously the A/V companies do not want to be in such a situation, but they have a valid reason for wanting writeable/rewriteable media and can force the issue if they are willing to stick it out.
If both comply, then they'll just play both sides asking for more demands until the market decides who wins (which is pretty much the scenario playing out today).
Absolutely.
The point is, if you want to watch Lord of the Rings, you want to watch Lord of the Rings. You cannot substitute LotR with Spiderman 2 if LotR is what you want.
Agreed - that is why I think in the long run, HD-DVD is screwed unless they inexplicitly sell many more players/recorders in the first few years. To make things easier, let's rate all major movies as being about the same popularity-wise. Obviously it is untrue, but weighing each studios movies is subjective and just too large of a task for this argument. Since BluRay has more content support, it is likely they will attract more purchasers simply because they have more titles people want. That will increase sales -> which will garner more studio support -> which will increase sales -> ad nauseam. Basically, it's a snowball effect.
But if you want LotR, and it is only on HD DVD but not on BD, you will grumble and get an HD DVD player. Hence disc formats are interchangeable, but the content is not.
This is true, but on balance - BluRay has potentially more movies people might want that aren't available on HD-DVD. My theory is, if there are more movies people want on BluRay - which is more likely within the confines of this argument - it should snowball to ever increasing support.
Thus, from the point of view of the studios, BD and HD DVD are roughly similar business propositions -- HD DVD might be cheaper and easier to fabricate, BD might have somewhat higher max capacity, etc, but those are really just technical details. They both do the same basic thing: play movies in HD.
If you notice the timeline of these products, Sony initially went after the A/V and PC companies for support. It was after the BluRay consortium included the majority of HW companies, that studio support ended up tilting in their favor. It could be a coincidence, but I doubt it. Granted, Sony's movie portfolio also played a role, but my point is that the studios seem to have fallen in line with where the HW support is. The A/V and PC companies banding together seems to have created a powerful argument in support of BluRay, an argument that the majority of studios have agreed with.
At this point, it hasnt come down the sides drawing lines in the sand and there is a good reason for that. The studios obviously realize that more HW support should = more sales. While some people are brand-loyal, the general populace is more concerned about pricing and features. More support, means more competition, means lower pricing, means more features, means more sales. So even without A/V manufacturers exuding any sort of pressure as a group, the fact that they are in a group at all makes it more attractive to the studios.
Likewise consumers will not really care if the disc is a BD and they need a BD player, or if a disc is HD DVD and they need a HD DVD player, as long as the movies are there and the players are cheap, work well, and are plentiful.
I certainly agree, and this goes along with my points above
Sony made some very shrewd moves in how they created their consortium.
Note however, while this is true from a movie (ROM) standpoint, it is not true in the other markets these players are aimed at namely storage (PC and DVR). In these markets, BluRay does have a perceived and actual advantage for being the better tech. As stated earlier, these markets will likely play a large role in the early acceptance of the platforms and BluRay does have an advantage. If sales do well in these markets relative to HD-DVD as many would expect, that will translate into more studio support as well.
Basically, I see BluRay having strength on strength and that it will translate in a synergistic effect of ever increasing adoption and support.
