Playing this game, man, I gotta say that I'm a bit uneasy about TM's success.
Let me preface this by saying that I LOVE the game so far from what I've seen of it. I've played Twisted 1, 2, and Black and I think that ESP hits all the right notes with this one. There's an amazing level of depth and complexity to the game and for fans of the series there's a whole lot to digest.
Which is part of the problem. I'm going to wade into some theory here and I'm sure I'm going to get some of it wrong so bear with me. The new TM's core target has got to be the original fans. Most of them are probably around 20 - 40 years old. Most of them probably have a fairly decent income that will allow them to pick up the game new if they want and most of them probably will. The recent strategy for a lot of publishers these days is to make games for the greatest common denominator, hopefully maximizing sales. The result (for this type of competitive, online game) is your Call of Duties - easy, simple, repetitive gaming junk food. Addicting, but does very little to fill you up. There is somewhat of a deeper level for those who want it - but log on at any given time and the majority of the games are simple Team Death Matches. CoD is fairly simple (though a bit of a challenge for those new to the genre), and not very deep.
TM on the other hand is both complex and deep. The deepness of the game isn't a problem. There are a lot of games out there that are both simple and deep. Clash of Heroes is a good example. Diablo III is another example (well, according to the developer blogs anyway.) TM is fucking complex. A lot of the buttons are pulling double or even triple duty. I'm a game designer, a decent TM player, and life-long gamer and it took me about 45 minutes to get to the point where I could clear the challenge mode and about 90 minutes until I clear it with Reaper.
Now think about your potential customers. For the sake of ease let's divide them into three groups - a) TM veteran, b) online, competitive gamer, c) TM virgin, normal gamer. It's a pretty safe bet to say that a) will buy your game. For b) and c) though you're looking at about say an hour or so investment in the game just to get the controls down. B) may or may not play through SP, and will probably go into MP. They initial time investment to get the controls down stands. Afterwords, the clock is ticking. Will this game provide something that they can't get with CoD or Battlefield 3? They'll get owned repeatedly, get frustrated with the complex controls, get rammed, flaming chainsawed, sniped, flipped through the air and frozen. Will they hang around long enough for everything to click? Or will they just take the game back and go back to CoD?
I think c) will go on to play through the SP campaign and probably clear it. They'll probably step into online once and, if we're lucky, will make the transition to online play. I'm doubtful though because when / if they do - they'll be up against a) and b). I think these guys will end up selling the game back as they go on to play SSX, Mass Effect 3, or whatever fairly big, online game comes out in the new future.
That ultimately leaves a) and a sprinkle of b) for online play. I guess it depends on TM's budget. DJ has gone on to say that ESP is fairly small, but I think with licensing, marketing, the length of production, and all the QA playtesting they've done will have pushed up costs fairly high. How many new sales do they need to break even? I'm guessing that the first 2 weeks will be good for sales. All or most of a) will buy in. B) will come in through word-of-mouth from a). C) will come in from the massive amount of pimping Jaffe is putting into the game, high review scores, livestreams, and marketing. I'm guessing that a small (yet significant) number of gamers will leave after the first two weeks to either A) go back to a previous game or B) go to a newer game like Darkness II or SSX (another remake of a fan favorite.) A month or so after release you'll have to deal with Mass Effect 3. I'm guessing that less than half of the online community will remain after the first month. I hope I'm wrong. I really do because I'm going to be playing SSX (during the daytime when my son is awake) and Twisted at night after he goes to bed. Hell, I'm thinking of buying two copies (thanks, online pass..) so I can play online at work during lunch. I want the game to succeed, it just seems like there are so many hurdles for it to go through to be successful (complexity of the game system / controls, high level of entry skill wise, longer lasting combat scenarios, etc.)
Don't get me wrong, from what I've seen, a fair number of people really fall for the game once they get used to it but the price of entry is high. I wonder if enough people have the fortitude or patience to wrestle with the game before they fall in love with it. There are examples where a developer targets a small, niche audience and manages to reap fame and fortune despite prohibitive production costs (Swords and Sworcery), but it's definitely not the norm. Props to ESP and Sony for trying that approach, but man, I hope it works out for them because I want to see more devs doing stuff like this.
(I've already pre-ordered the game and am looking forward to seeing what ESP and Jaffe do next. As much as I want ANOTHER TM, I hope they branch out and so something other than cars;D)
