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[Bronx-Man]

Guardians is now out everywhere, except Japan (which doesnt matter much). It has alos been out for two weekends in many of the bigger overseas territories. With only $283M to date $500M overseas is probably not going to happen. Maybe $450M or so.

Domestically, this weekend puts the domestic total at $325M on the "no legs" end of things and probably $375M on the high end. I would guess $350M for now.

So realistically, $800M is a lot more likely than even $900M. $1B would require this to not act like a comic book sequel at all, and for Europe to suddenly develop an overwhelming urge to repeat watch starting next weekend.

Guardians of the Bomba

 

[Obliterator]

Why is Fate of the Furious earning so little domestically? The number seems really low.

I think it's pulling a Transformers domestically where audiences are just starting to get tired of the formula.

The explosion internationally more than makes up for it though for now

 

[Sad Affleck]

Guardians is now out everywhere, except Japan (which doesnt matter much). It has also been out for two weekends in many of the bigger overseas territories. With only $283M to date, $500M overseas is probably not going to happen. Maybe $450M or so.

Domestically, this weekend puts the domestic total at $325M on the "no legs" end of things and probably $375M on the high end. I would guess $350M for now.

So realistically, $800M is a lot more likely than even $900M. $1B would require this to not act like a comic book sequel at all, and for Europe to suddenly develop an overwhelming urge to repeat watch starting next weekend.

That seems kinda bad since the first one reached $773 million. The sequel has to be more expensive, right?

 

[Prompto]

That seems kinda bad since the first one reached $773 million. The sequel has to be more expensive, right?

It looks like the budget was around the same according to Wikipedia but not sure how accurate that is.

 

[El Topo]

That seems kinda bad since the first one reached $773 million. The sequel has to be more expensive, right?

Exchange rates are a lot worse nowadays, no?

 

[AndersK]

A decent reference point is BvS. It did what, 870-something on a undoubtedly larger budget? That made money, but not near what was imagined beforehand.

 

[Obliterator]

That seems kinda bad since the first one reached $773 million. The sequel has to be more expensive, right?

Exchange rates make it much harder for Guardians 2 to make significantly more money internationally than the first. Even if it actually sells more tickets

Kswis had a good post a bit back where he broke it down

 

[Chamber]

I'm surprised Guardians cost less than FoTF.

You shouldn't be.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESCHCE8-gV8

That shits expensive.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Guardians is now out everywhere, except Japan (which doesnt matter much). It has also been out for two weekends in many of the bigger overseas territories. With only $283M to date, $500M overseas is probably not going to happen. Maybe $450M or so.

Domestically, this weekend puts the domestic total at $325M on the "no legs" end of things and probably $375M on the high end. I would guess $350M for now.

So realistically, $800M is a lot more likely than even $900M. $1B would require this to not act like a comic book sequel at all, and for Europe to suddenly develop an overwhelming urge to repeat watch starting next weekend.

Ride or die.

 

[Glass Rebel]

Guardians is now out everywhere, except Japan (which doesnt matter much). It has also been out for two weekends in many of the bigger overseas territories. With only $283M to date, $500M overseas is probably not going to happen. Maybe $450M or so.

Domestically, this weekend puts the domestic total at $325M on the "no legs" end of things and probably $375M on the high end. I would guess $350M for now.

So realistically, $800M is a lot more likely than even $900M. $1B would require this to not act like a comic book sequel at all, and for Europe to suddenly develop an overwhelming urge to repeat watch starting next weekend.

Thanks for the breakdown. Yeah, I expected this to break 1bn on the leadup but it became clearer and clearer that it wouldn't outperform the first one dramatically. Still, huge achievement for Disney and Marvel.

 

[Schlorgan]

Good start for Guardians. Great movie. Well deserved.

Anyone else think Homecoming will have a hard time matching it?

 

[broncobuster]

It looks like the budget was around the same according to Wikipedia but not sure how accurate that is.

GOTG1 went over budget, so unless they say GOTG2 also went over, they'd end up close.

 

[MechDX]

I think it's pulling a Transformers domestically where audiences are just starting to get tired of the formula.

The explosion internationally more than makes up for it though for now

I have absolutely no desire to see the latest Fast movie after watching the last one and I like dumb and fun movies. Ill Redbox it later

 

[Obliterator]

Good start for Guardians. Great movie. Well deserved.

Anyone else think Homecoming will have a hard time matching it?

Idk what to think about Homecoming. On one hand it's Spidey and people liked his portrayal in Civil War. On the other it seems a lot of people's reactions to the trailers has been tepid.

 

[Glass Rebel]

Idk what to think about Homecoming. On one hand it's Spidey and people liked his portrayal in Civil War. On the other it seems a lot of people's reactions to the trailers has been tepid.

They have another trailer coming up tonight afaik. If this one doesn't catch people's attention like the GOTG and Ragnarok trailers did, I think it'll perform well under 1bn.

Would be the first MCU movie starring RDJ to not break the 1bn barrier, damn.

 

[Schlorgan]

Idk what to think about Homecoming. On one hand it's Spidey and people liked his portrayal in Civil War. On the other it seems a lot of people's reactions to the trailers has been tepid.

I feel like it won't hit GotG2 numbers. It won't be too far behind but it'll definitely be below.

 

[Khansolo1]

They have another trailer coming up tonight afaik.

How do you know there is a trailer coming tonight?

 

[Prompto]

I think less than a billion for Spider-Man would be dissapointing for Sony. Iron Man hasn't been in a film that's grossed less than a billion since Iron Man 2.

How do you know there is a trailer coming tonight?

MTV movie awards? Think they announced something for it

 

[Glass Rebel]

How do you know there is a trailer coming tonight?

MTV movie awards? Think they announced something for it

Yeah, Zendaya and Holland are gonna be there.

 

[BumRush]

Any chance at a billion or is that off the table? The bump on Sat / Sun was better than expected...

 

[kswiston]

So it's fairly safe to call no $1B MCU films not featuring Iron Man through the end of this decade. I wonder if any non-Iron Man superhero film will hit that mark. It will likely depend on exchange rates. Seems unlikely for now.

Any chance at a billion or is that off the table? The bump on Sat / Sun was better than expected...

BvS numbers WW are probably off the table. Expect something around $800M.

 

[CaviarMeths]

Yeah, definitely over-predicted Guardians. Looking at it now though, my prediction of $160-165m was always lofty and would have been a huge increase.

I thought it would be a lock for highest grossing superhero movie of the year too, but now I wouldn't bet against Spider-Man or Justice League.

 

[FTF]

Any chance at a billion or is that off the table? The bump on Sat / Sun was better than expected...

Like others, I don't think $1b happens. I also think they're being too generous with that Sun drop, I expect it to drop more than 26% when actuals come out tomorrow.

 

[Creamium]

$1B would require this to not act like a comic book sequel at all, and for Europe to suddenly develop an overwhelming urge to repeat watch starting next weekend.

Went for my second viewing this weekend, love it so much. I do get the impression that the movie is less of a phenomenon here than in the States though.

 

[Schlorgan]

Will Guardians be opening in China soon?

 

[y2dvd]

It's amazing that the GotG property is even in the $1bil discussion. Not even B-list heroes before the first movie yall!

 

[ryutaro's mama]

So it's fairly safe to call no $1B MCU films not featuring Iron Man through the end of this decade. I wonder if any non-Iron Man superhero film will hit that mark. It will likely depend on exchange rates. Seems unlikely for now.

RDJ can claim this at contract negotiations. KSwizz making money for actors. :O

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

Very strong opening for Guardians 2. It's not the $150M some of us hoped for (and it looks like it may be overestimated by $1-2M), it's definitely not a disappointing opening by any measure. Unlike Iron Man 2, it's likely to outgross its predecessor, which nowadays is not an easy feat for direct sequels.

Will Guardians be opening in China soon?

Already opened there, and it looks like it may decrease from the original in total.

The overseas total is a bit of a head-scratcher for me after the UK and Australian openings.

 

[Principate]

I think less than a billion for Spider-Man would be dissapointing for Sony. Iron Man hasn't been in a film that's grossed less than a billion since Iron Man 2.


MTV movie awards? Think they announced something for it

Yeah but he was also in Avengers and pseudo avengers films. He wasn't the sidekick in those films. Spiderman should be a big enough property in itself but honestly the film doesn't look too exciting yet but we'll see.

 

[Buckle]

Are Marvel doing the trailers for Homecoming or Sony?

I usually get hyped whenever an MCU trailer drops but theres just something about the ones for Homecoming that have left me abit lukewarm despite the fact that it's Spidey coming back home (or atleast visiting for awhile).

 

[MHWilliams]

$145 million in first, to $8 million in second place. Jesus.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

$145 million in first, to $8 million in second place. Jesus.

Happens often with big tent movie debuts. #2 is a distant one.

 

[BumRush]

$145 million in first, to $8 million in second place. Jesus.

Yup, I wonder if there has ever been such a big gap. That's insane.

I'm sure it is commom but it looks so weird

 

[Sibersk Esto]

$145 million in first, to $8 million in second place. Jesus.

1st week vs 4th week. But it is a pretty wide gap.

 

[ZeoVGM]

Are Marvel doing the trailers for Homecoming or Sony?

I usually get hyped whenever an MCU trailer drops but theres just something about the ones for Homecoming that have left me abit lukewarm despite the fact that it's Spidey coming back home (or atleast visiting for awhile).

Sony.

Which is why the trailers aren't very good.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

did this dude really get paid for Baby Groot?

FML

 

[Bobby Roberts]

It's amazing that the GotG property is even in the $1bil discussion. Not even B-list heroes before the first movie yall!

This would be more surprising if people gave a fuck about comics in the first place. But they don't, so their tier-listing with the true believers doesn't count for shit.

 

[NealMcCauley]

Yup, I wonder if there has ever been such a big gap. That's insane.

I'm sure it is commom but it looks so weird

TFA had $248 million to Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip's $14 million.

 

[FTF]

Yup, I wonder if there has ever been such a big gap. That's insane.

I'm sure it is commom but it looks so weird

Yeah it's a pretty big gap, 14th all time: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/biggestgaps.htm?page=all&p=.htm

 

[kswiston]

$145 million in first, to $8 million in second place. Jesus.

Looks like the first weekend in May to me!


Guardians still has a good chance at winning the summer domestically. I think that Despicable Me 3 and Transformers will top it worldwide though. Potentially Pirates and Spider-Man as well.

 

[Sibersk Esto]

Yeah it's a pretty big gap, 14th all time: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/biggestgaps.htm?page=all&p=.htm

Fuck me, what DOESN'T Box office mojo keep tabs on?

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Yeah it's a pretty big gap, 14th all time: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/biggestgaps.htm?page=all&p=.htm

Yeah number #4 is an analog to this year.

 

[LordOfLore]

There's a WW trailer tonight as well, right?

 

[BumRush]

TFA had $248 million to Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip's $14 million.

Yeah, definitely way crazier. I guess it's the $8M that's more shocking than the gap itself. It's like people either saw GotG2 or didn't leave their houses

 

[CaviarMeths]

Yup, I wonder if there has ever been such a big gap. That's insane.

I'm sure it is commom but it looks so weird

Adding to the gap between 1 & 2 stat, highest weekend market share among top 12 films:

1. Age of Ultron - 84.5%
2. Spider-Man 3 - 83.3%
3. The Avengers - 83.1%
4. Iron Man 3 - 82.6%
5. The Force Awakens - 81.2%
6. Guardians 2 - 78.3%

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/num1marketshare.htm

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

$145 million in first, to $8 million in second place. Jesus.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/biggestgaps.htm?page=all&p=.htm

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/num1marketshare.htm

A couple of fun charts to look at in regards to this type of stat. The first weekend of May tends to dominate this list. When Avengers 2 opened with $191M, the number spot (also a Fast and Furious movie), made only $6.6M.

Edit: I'm getting old.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Yeah, definitely way crazier. I guess it's the $8M that's more shocking than the gap itself. It's like people either saw GotG2 or didn't leave their houses

Look at #4 on the list.

 

[kswiston]

Yeah number #4 is an analog to this year.

4 of the past 5 starts of May in 2012-2016 are in the top 6 of that list. Late April is typically dead.

 

[BumRush]

Adding to the gap between 1 & 2 stat, highest weekend market share among top 12 films:

1. Age of Ultron - 84.5%
2. Spider-Man 3 - 83.3%
3. The Avengers - 83.1%
4. Iron Man 3 - 82.6%
5. The Force Awakens - 81.2%
6. Guardians 2 - 78.3%

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/num1marketshare.htm

This is a cool stat!

 

[ryutaro's mama]

4 of the past 5 starts of May in 2012-2016 are in the top 6 of that list. Late April is typically dead.

Makes sense why FF has set up camp there. It is their December.