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Wkd BO 12•09-11•16 - Moana a Party pupuper, keeps top spot warm for Disney fam

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kswiston

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Mojo's numbers are not up to date, but Disney has made $2.605B domestic so far this year, including Friday's box office.

To be the first studio in history to crack $3B in one year, they will need another $395M from Rogue One, Moana, and to a much lesser extent, Doctor Strange by Dec 31st. There are 15 days left in the year (including today) for this to occur in.

As a point of comparison, Tangled made $40M and Thor 2 made $3M in the same time frame. Moana and Doc Strange are both playing stronger than those. $50M combined is probably a lowball for what they will make by Dec 31st.

Anyone think that Rogue One will fail to hit at least $415M by the end of its third Saturday? TFA was at $720M by that third Saturday if you need a comparison point.
 

kswiston

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Sure seems like they're gonna crack that $3B then.

Unless like, a massive weather or natural disaster hits, or Trump does something particularly fucked up, in which case box-office wont' be much of a worry anymore

Haha. I sort of wonder if Trump will lead to a weakening of the US Dollar in the next couple of years (and therefore a boost in overseas grosses)



List of Studios that have broken $2B domestic in a calendar year

Disney 2016 - $2.605B and counting
Universal 2015 - $2.445B
Disney 2015 - $2.280B
Warner Bros 2009 - $2.106B
 

MHWilliams

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There is supposedly a big LucasFilm meeting in January that will decide the future of the franchise.

Looking forward to hearing the new schedule post that meeting.

A KotOR movie would be so so so good

I think an Old Republic movie would be swell. I would like a higher-fantasy Star Wars take done properly. A world of Jedi would be great.

Anyone else see Episode IX getting an insane budget; like $300m and them just letting Trevorrow go nuts?

Nah. Kennedy will make sure the budgets stay in line. As your budget balloons, it forces the film to perform higher to retain margins.
 

kswiston

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how does that US domestic list compare with China's gross list? (US gross per studio versus China gross per studio)

I'm not really sure what you are asking, but here's the Top 50 of 2016 in China as of last weekend. Hopefully that is of some use.

Code:
Rank	Movie Title			Distributor	Gross		Release
1	The Mermaid (2016)		n/a		$526,848,189	2/8
2	Zootopia			n/a		$235,591,257	3/4
3	Warcraft			HuaXia		$220,841,090	6/8
4	Captain America: Civil War	Disney		$190,429,000	5/6
5	The Monkey King 2 in 3D		n/a		$185,402,420	2/8
6	From Vegas to Macau 3		n/a		$172,104,369	2/8
7	Operation MeKong		n/a		$171,399,117	9/30
8	Kung Fu Panda 3			n/a		$154,304,371	1/29
9	Time Raiders			HuaXia		$150,486,525	8/5
10	The Jungle Book (2016)		Disney		$150,140,000	4/15
11	Skiptrace			n/a		$133,164,034	7/21
12	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	n/a		$124,159,138	1/9
13	Ip Man 3			n/a		$124,101,198	3/4
14	X-Men: Apocalypse		Fox		$120,765,095	6/3
15	Finding Mr. Right 2		CL		$119,464,631	4/29
16	I Belonged to You		n/a		$117,654,752	9/29
17	Doctor Strange			Disney		$109,194,913	11/4
18	Cold War 2			n/a		$102,197,265	7/8
19	Now You See Me 2		Leomus		$97,115,220	6/24
20	Batman v Superman		n/a		$95,769,365	3/25
21	Line Walker			HuaXia		$90,871,908	8/11
22	Big Fish & Begonia (Da Hai)	Beijing Enlight	$85,023,628	7/8
23	Fantastic Beasts		WB		$82,421,975	11/25
24	The Angry Birds Movie		Sony		$75,872,971	5/20
25	Independence Day: Resurgence	Fox		$75,359,650	6/24
26	Your Name (Kimi no na wa.)	n/a		$71,153,677	12/2
27	Jason Bourne			UPI		$66,904,818	8/23
28	Ice Age: Collision Course	Fox		$66,059,140	8/23
29	Star Trek Beyond		PPI		$65,170,090	9/2
30	I Am Not Madame Bovary		n/a		$60,771,555	11/18
31	TMNT: Out of the Shadows	PPI		$58,933,101	7/2
32	Alice Through the Looking Glass	Disney		$58,780,778	5/27
33	The Revenant			n/a		$58,684,119	3/18
34	The Secret Life of Pets		UPI		$58,307,653	8/2
35	Chongqing Hot Pot		n/a		$57,098,935	4/1
36	Legend of Ravaging Dynasties	n/a		$56,211,456	9/29
37	Beginning of the Great Revival 	n/a		$54,612,874	11/4
38	A Chinese Odyssey: Part Three	n/a		$52,619,096	9/14
39	London Has Fallen		n/a		$52,302,200	4/8
40	Never Gone			HuaXia		$50,484,341	7/8
41	My Beloved Bodyguard		n/a		$49,371,457	4/1
42	The Legend of Tarzan		China Film	$46,152,613	7/19
43	Boonie Bears III		n/a		$44,544,110	1/16
44	League of Gods			HuaXia		$42,682,491	7/29
45	Love O2O			HuaXia		$41,356,090	8/12
46	Mission Milano			n/a		$38,369,249	10/1
47	CTHD: Sword of Destiny		n/a		$38,262,712	2/19
48	Finding Dory			Disney		$38,052,302	6/17
49	Gods of Egypt			n/a		$35,598,525	3/11
50	Bounty Hunters			n/a		$31,911,723	7/1

More info if you want it: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/china/yearly/
 

Dash_Riprock

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Sep 12, 2015
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There is supposedly a big LucasFilm meeting in January that will decide the future of the franchise.

I bet it will look something like this:


Please reboot, please reboot.
 

kswiston

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I don't see how they reboot Star Wars without fans losing their minds, unless they go the Star Trek 09 route.

Even then, I agree that we're talking 2030s at the earliest.

Disney isn't going to want to give their core fans a convenient jumping off point.
 

kswiston

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Back on the topic of Box Office, Rth is saying that Saturday is looking like $45M. It's still early, but if that is in the right ballpark, it would mean an increase of around 10% from Friday without the previews. That's more or less what TFA saw.

Assuming a drop of around 25% on Sunday, we would be looking at about $150M even for the weekend. Rogue One probably isn't going to get TFA's crazy Sunday hold (-11%).
 

MHWilliams

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Ava DuVernay directing the Obi-Wan movie.

I think she'd want to avoid them.

Disney/Marvel/Lucasfilm will probably pick up Dan Trachtenberg, since Abrams already knows him. Barry Jenkins, Jennifer Kent, Ana Lily Amirpour, Meera Menon, maybe Edward Zwick. I'd throw money at Chad Stahelski and Lexi Alexander for straight up action films.

Denis Villeneuve, if Blade Runner 2049 turns out well.
 

kswiston

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$155M estimate for Rogue One domestic.

$291M worldwide.

Domestic box office was notably stronger than overseas box office this weekend (compared to TFA).


EDIT: Fantastic Beasts is now at $717M worldwide.
 

gamz

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Gitesh Pandya @GiteshPandya
With strong buzz & holidays ahead, #RogueOne has a great shot at reaching $600M+ dom. Global may hit $1.3B+. Both would be tops for 2016.
 

kswiston

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Gitesh Pandya @GiteshPandya
With strong buzz & holidays ahead, #RogueOne has a great shot at reaching $600M+ dom. Global may hit $1.3B+. Both would be tops for 2016.

I think his $700M overseas is optimistic. This film is out everywhere except China and South Korea.

The Force Awakens made $281M overseas in its first weekend. The only extra territory playing for it vs Rogue One was South Korea (which opened to less than $7M). So we're looking at a 50% drop across the board.

The Force Awakens ended up with just over $1B overseas outside of China. Even assuming China increases a bit to $150M, Rogue One is going to need better holds than TFA had to hit $700M overseas (and TFA had pretty good holds).
 

jett

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I think his $700M overseas is optimistic. This film is out everywhere except China and South Korea.

The Force Awakens made $281M overseas in its first weekend. The only extra territory playing for it vs Rogue One was South Korea (which opened to less than $7M). So we're looking at a 50% drop across the board.

The Force Awakens ended up with just over $1B overseas outside of China. Even assuming China increases a bit to $150M, Rogue One is going to need better holds than TFA had to hit $700M overseas (and TFA had pretty good holds).

Americans sure love their starwar.
 

kswiston

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Americans sure love their starwar.

That seems to be the biggest take away. 50% drop overseas, but only 37.5% domestically. Even with that ridiculous $57M thursday that came close to doubling Rogue One's previews.

Disney is predicting a strong Sunday hold though, so it's possible that the actuals will be down a bit.
 
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