TeamLeftMatch
Member
Pretty much. It's Cameron's fault for this referendum but once Theresa May took power everything she did was just awful.
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UK set to trigger Brexit on March 29
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Pretty much. It's Cameron's fault for this referendum but once Theresa May took power everything she did was just awful.
Wasn't there a recent ITV poll that in the small print admitted only 150 or so people out of a sample of over a thousand were actually in Scotland. It's messed up and the polls are most of the time highly skewed, intended to get the result they want.
You know what polls are cast iron ..? (Aimed at that EleventhHour person lol)... The 56 out of 59 SNP MPs elected to Westminster. The pro indy majority in Holyrood, and the 62% pro EU vote in Scotland. That's pretty substantial support.
Pancake Mix
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The 56 MP's is due to FPTP, the SNP had 49.97% of the popular vote, yet received 94.92% of the seats. The pro-union parties split the vote.
At the Scottish Parliament, nationalists lost two seats overall in 2016 and might lose their narrow majority in 2021.
Voting to remain in the EU does not mean it's a deal-breaker for that entire 62 percent, that's absurd. Plenty of soft Eurosceptics voted remain and aren't terribly annoyed. In fact, there may be plenty who are more annoyed at Salmond and his big mouth.
Midway through your post I was starting to think "This sounds a lot like Brexit".
Hercule Poirot could probably help figure out what happened, but unfortunately he'll have to leave the country. Immigrants, you know.
It's more about how influential Scotland's vote actually is and the answer is "not very". We get what a majority in rUK wants and that's just the facts of the population differences. Sadly England is turning ever more right and this is completely opposed to where Scotland is headed. Does it feel right that we can have 56 out of 59 MPs if the same party and yet they have no clout at all really at the end of the day? Don't answer that, I'm well aware you'll put me in my place lol.
Common sense as far as a democracy goes would be giving the people what they want, England wants Brexit - fine. Scotland doesn't and with a sizeable majority saying so.
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Few among us would refuse a chalice of sufficient value, regardless of what poison it might contain. I know I have done.
Now, how does it go ... the pellet with the poison's in the vessel with the pestle, the chalice from the Palace has the brew that is true ...
Assumptions now. Nice. The SNP mandate is huge. We've not seen anything like the 56 MPs. The fact this monumental tectonic change can be so easily brushed off with "well it's only xx% of the vote".. fucking laughable. How well did the Tories do by comparison?
Jezbollah
Member
The easy counter to the above is to see how many people voted for UKIP and only had one MP at the end of the 2015 Election.
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
'scuse me. He was a refugee. That's entirely not the same thing.
(EDIT: I think the only way I shall be able to cope with this thread and its successors is through whimsy.)
Pancake Mix
Copied someone else's pancake recipe
It seems to negate your point on MPs that all that would be needed to discourage that would be a single Unionist party due to the nature of FPTP, which isn't terribly representative. There is a single, broad-tent nationalist party that wins almost every nationalist's vote at the Westminster level, whereas the pro-union parties are separate.
However, in a referendum there's no such split for the remain side, so I think it's misleading to point to having ~94 percent of MP's when the level of support among the population is more like half of that. It's one statistic, but it shows that a mandate in FPTP does not mean that the SNP could not have every MP in Scotland and still have only a minority for independence. The SNP is a broad coalition with many right-wing voters as well.
Scotland is not a monolithic group. We'll see who considers it a dealbreaker, and who does not. That's democracy. There will always be some differences between regions, and people will decide how they feel about matters.
I'm sorry that facts trouble you so.
As for the Scottish Tories, they're on the rise in the Scottish parliament. The Tories don't do well in Scotland in Westminster elections, I get that. I never claimed to the contrary.
47,078 votes, or 1/30th of the SNP vote.
That's in Scotland, of course.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/scotland
Curious that you quote vote share for Westminster and omit that the snp increased their vote share marginally whilst losing two seats due to the electoral system in the Scottish election last year.
They got more votes than labour and tories combined with the most constituency votes in Scottish history.
Pancake Mix
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6 seats, they lost 6 seats.
But the Scottish Greens gained 4 of those.
And the SNP got fewer votes than the Scottish Tories, Scottish Labour, and the Scottish Lib Dems combined, which is what's relevant.
It never ceases to amuse me when you go on about the SNP's 'lost' majority or them losing a few seats in Scotland as if it's some magical bellweather of crumbling support rather than just the vagaries of the modified d'hondt's rationalisation. Put simply the SNP won more constituencies with a far greater share of the vote so lost list seats.
Basically because you don't have a clue about the electoral system used in while you pontificate like you've actually got some knowledge about Scotland it's been amusing but it's getting tiresome given how often it's regurgitated
If you're actually interested in why the SNP lost seats, pull up a chair
Their constituency total vote share and seat number increased, the modified D'Hondt system used in Scottish elections 'rewards' constituency success by reducing the corrosponding regional list chances (to make the system proportional). So if you won all eight constituency seats in a region you'd need a ridiculous amount of regional list votes to gain a single list seat.
There's a very simple work though of the concept for school kids here.
http://www.parliament.scot/Educatio...esources/AMS_Teacher_Read_Through_Version.pdf
but the main part of the workthrough is the final table where you can see the interplay between constituency success and inability to pick up list seats. But put simply each constituency you win in an 8 seat region, becomes a divisor of your list voter total (as does each subsequent list seat won during the list rounds in those regions). Basically Regional Votes ÷ Number of MSPs already won in region + 1
The SNP gaining a majority with just under 45.4% of the constituency vote and 44% of the regional vote in 2011 was a quirk of mathematics and luck (they basically hit a sweet spot where their constituency success was small enough to allow them to gain list votes). But ultimately the split between the number of constituencies MSP and list MSP is designed to prevent a single party majority. Of course there's more constituency seats (73) than regional seats (56) so I suppose if you won 80% of constituencies you could gain an overall majority of one that way.
The SNP's constituency vote increased by 1.1% , and their list vote went down by 2.3% (mostly due to a campaign to transfer those votes to the Greens in areas the SNP were going to clean up in the constituency voting). You may note that the Green's regional vote went up by almost exactly the same as the SNP's went down 2.2% up for the Greens.
Common sense is to leave the sinking ship. Like Farage will be doing. That will be clear by the time of the referendum.
And? That's the way it's supposed to work majorities are not supposed to be commonplace using our system - that's a good thing btw.
I used your own argument and you deflected.
And you add on every other party... Dear lord. Throw in the ssp aswell fuck it.
nekkid
It doesn't matter who we are, what matters is our plan.
There's leaving a sinking ship, then there's leaving a sinking ship in a life raft that has no means of propulsion.
If I'm in a sinking ship, you can bet I'm going to be on that raft instead of going down with the ship. I'm sure any reasonable person would be.
Pancake Mix
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So losing seats is what winning looks like? You basically admitted that the SNP won due to a statistical anomaly in 2011.
Rather than being equally condescending in return, I'll turn the other cheek. See you in 2021.
Well guess what, you're in one. A currency union without a fiscal union is stupid.
killer_clank
Member
Why is everyone in this thread assuming most ordinary Scots want to leave? The polls have indicated no such change towards NationalistGAF. Is it perhaps because this forum leans disproportionately male (and thus more likely to support independence: Exhibit A, Exhibit B) rather than female and more pro-United Kingdom?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum#Opinion_polling
Yup, in terms of Scottish people on this board, they're likely to be young, male (though the gender gap isn't as big as some make out, it's mostly age). Speaking personally, me and almost all of my friends now support independence but the older generation generally don't - up until about 50 it's relatively even if leaning no but after about 50 - 60 the vast majority support the union and almost nothing will change their minds.
Gentlemen and Ladies. Today Neil Hamilton, disgraced cash from questions fuckwit and somehow leader oif UKip in the welsh assembly, today suggested that the if the poor didn't benefit from Brexit then suicide was always an option
https://twitter.com/WalesPolitics/status/847107600122613760
What an unbelievable cunt.
https://twitter.com/WalesPolitics/status/847107600122613760
What an unbelievable cunt.
nekkid
It doesn't matter who we are, what matters is our plan.
As is career suicide, apparently.
Yes, for the reasons I explained it's simply the vagaries of the system do I need to get some crayons to draw you a clue? I thought linking a document designed for primary 6 would be close to your speed but I suppose we could animate it or something?
And yes the SNP won in 2011 via a statistical anomaly. So what? That's the system. Their support is pretty consistent, you're the one claiming it's not despite of all the evidence to the contrary on the basis of 6 lost seats in an election where the SNP's share of the vote went up. They gained 6 constituency seats and lost 12 regional seats, that's how the system is meant to work.
They certainly could lose their majority in the next election, given how the regional system works it's actually possible they could increase support again and lose their majority depending on where they win the constituency seats and how the other parties regional votes split. It's not a perfectly proportional system. It wouldn't be an indication of a lack of support, it's simply the system we were landed with by Labour. A lack of support would be the vote share going down.
Audioboxer
Member
Yeah, all the privatisation and dismantling of the NHS they are getting around to doing is just "temporary". I want my life to try and live with as much comfort as possible, not to mention future kids I may have. I'm concerned, but not that concerned what the world will be like in 150/200 years, if we're just talking the state of the Conservatives/UK. Of course, I'd rather my/next generation isn't known for destroying the earth via irreversible global warming, but besides big things like that I do want to try and safe guard some of what I can benefit from within my lifetime.
There's some very real threats WITHIN the next 10~15 years at a continued Tory reign that keeps kicking that long. Heck, some speculators are thinking the Tories might still be kicking in 20~30 years with how bad the collapse of Labour is. Scottish independence for me isn't just about Brexit, which is why I voted yes in 2014.
Brexit is just the next thing in line cementing my feelings that the sooner Scotland cuts off from this short/mid-term Tory reign and yes, also prevents Brexit, the better. Seeing the back of Trident can't come soon enough either.
.....
Pancake Mix
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Seems to be hard to get through to you, so I think it'd be best if I put you on my ignore list. Here's hoping for the decline of your nationalist movement.
I bet you're a real hit at parties, but I think it'd be best if I put you on my ignore list.
Off you run.
No, the SNP and the Greens got more votes than the Tories, Labour, and Lib Dems combined, which is what's relevant.
Pancake Mix
Copied someone else's pancake recipe
Nationalism in all forms is bad and you may find out yet that the average person agrees with me.
Horrific.
Utterly fucking disgusting. If this were a just world he wouldn't have just been asked to apologize, he'd have been dragged out of their and thrown onto the street with his career in tatters.
Omg you referenced the court jester I love you
Only some forms apparently. what was it you were saying the other week "great union and it's important place in the world". That's Nationalism bub.
Audioboxer
Member
Not quite, and that's one heck of a simplifying of reality to push your narrative
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civic_nationalism
But sure, if you want to call a nations political party open to anyone who wants to live here, supportive of all and very clear on pro immigration, "bad", you do you.
Brexit was the straw that broke the camels back for cheap potshots at the SNP, as UKIP, the Tories and parts of Labour rammed home what xenophobia really is.
Warning terribly racist xenophobic and hate filled nationalistic speech ahead ~ https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/843446978096775169
Ask the average person how they feel about Gandhi before saying stuff like that.
AlexFlame116
Member
I don't care if he meant career suicide. That was absolutely completely uncalled for and he should give a real apology instead of a fake one! What a smug pompous piece of junk!
He explained the vagaries of how the system works, and yet you're deflecting to cover your own inadequacies. How about you cool it?
Seems to be hard to get through to you, so I think it'd be best if I put you on my ignore list. Here's hoping for the decline of your nationalist movement.
ClosingADoor
Member
So May said she can't guarantee there will be less immigration. Like, what is even one reason to have gone forward with this whole bullshit if you can't even guarantee the core the leave campaign was based on. Amazing.
Indeed they keep doing it, calling the German's NAZI's or refering to the War. And then wonder "Why won't they be our friends!".
I really hope most people realize that Tories aren't like the average Englishman. Or they will start thinking that you guys say Hello by punching in the face, and goodbye by giving a sharp kick to the bollocks.
Then cry when the other party doesn't want to play any more and is its ball home with them.
Name is original, tag is due to some incredibly lazy plagiarism.
AlexFlame116
Member
Honestly I'm not familiar with them. I was very sheltered until after the two year leave and becoming a member on GAF.
With the added bonus of Hamilton already being a cunt.
To be fair, that label applies to just about anybody in UKIP.
axisofweevils
Holy crap! Today's real megaton is that more than two people can have the same first name.
So errr, Farage thanked Steve Bannon for his role in help make Brexit happen. https://www.axios.com/nigel-farage-...ganic&utm_term=politics&utm_content=textshort
Orniletter
Banned
There is a very clear difference between English and Scottish nationalism and the underlying reasons for Brexit/ Referendum 2.0
And EleventhHour really shouldn't be one to lecture others about the toxicity of nationalism.
And EleventhHour really shouldn't be one to lecture others about the toxicity of nationalism.
You seem to be underestimating how important this is,
the Duke of Devonshire Lord Cavendish, in homage to Queen Victoria, introduced bananas to the whole world, and they were bendy bananas, not some foreign muck.
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