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PoliGAF Thread of Obama's Victory Lap and Smoking Hopium in Internet Dens

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T

Triumph

Banned
SHIT JUST GOT REAL.

kyoregonvoting.jpg


Commonwealth of Kentucky: The Bluegrass State

51 Pledged Delegates

Population: 4,041,769
wikipedi...lation_map.png


Polling Trends:
08KYPresDems600.png


General Election Voting History:
8 Electoral Votes

2004: Republican
2000: Republican
1996: Democrat
1992: Democrat

Recent Kentucky polls:
SUSA Clinton 62 Obama 30
Suffolk Clinton 51 Obama 25
ARG Clinton 65 Obama 29

Poblano has yet to do predictions for KY, probably because the outcome is fairly (imo) obvious.


Oregon: The Beaver State

52 Pledged Delegates

Population: 3,421,399
wikipedi...n_map_2000.png


Polling Trends:
08ORPresDems600.png


General Election Voting History
7 Electoral Votes

2004: Democrat
2000: Democrat
1996: Democrat
1992: Democrat

Recent Oregon polls:
SUSA Obama 55 Clinton 42
Suffolk Obama 45 Clinton 41
PPP Obama 56 Clinton 38

Special note: Poblano over at 538.com is calling it 56-43. He's pretty accurate, moreso than a lot of pollsters and he's "just" a blogger.

If anyone wants to link me to maps n' charts n' other shit, pm me. I'm pretty lazy.

edit: big ups to KRS7 for some links and info.
 
T

Triumph

Banned
Dax01 said:
So is it okay to say with good confidence that Obama will win Oregon by +10%?
Click to expand...
I think so. In fact,

PREDICTION TIME!

Oregon
Obama 57
Clinton 43

Kentucky
Clinton 64
Obama 32
 
D

Deus Ex Machina

Member
Hillary goes back to mocking Obama and discounting the states he won

She said Monday that she is the "more progressive candidate" and dismissed the hype surrounding Obama that results in the large crowds like the record rally of an estimated 65,000 he drew in Portland on Sunday afternoon.

Clinton said Obama, who has refused to debate her since they last faced off just before the Pennsylvania primary last month, would "rather just talk to giant crowds than have questions asked."

Later, while speaking to several hundred people in a high school gymnasium, Clinton picked up her campaign's argument that Obama's victories in states that had caucuses instead of primaries are somehow less significant because turnout was lower.

Clinton also revived her pitch that many of the states where he has beaten her, like Alaska, Idaho and Utah, matter less because they would not be competitive for Democrats in November. Anybody "who's really analyzing this" should come to the same conclusions, she said.
Click to expand...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080519/ap_on_el_pr/clinton
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Comparisons to always avoid: Hitler and Jesus.

Courtesy of our friend Aaron Gould Sheinin at the AJC:

Columbus — Georgia Republican Party chairwoman Sue Everhart said Saturday that the party's presumed presidential nominee has a lot in common with Jesus Christ

"John McCain is kind of like Jesus Christ on the cross," Everhart said as she began the second day of the state GOP convention. "He never denounced God, either."

Everhart was praising McCain for never denouncing the United States while he was being tortured as a prisoner of war in Vietnam.

"I'm not trying to compare John McCain to Jesus Christ, I'm looking at the pain that was there," she said.
Click to expand...
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/

smh
 
S

scorcho

testicles on a cold fall morning
i say that poligaf, much like Obama, must move past Clinton and focus on McCain exclusively.
 
S

scorcho

testicles on a cold fall morning
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10450.html


nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

ahem.

nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo


she's partly responsible for Clinton's disastrous campaign, and now she wants to work for Obama's team? there's absolutely no logic behind this unless the Clinton team is pushing for the hire as one of their conditions for dropping out.
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
That gallup is pretty impressive.

but WHAT THE F at the Obama McCain matchup already, I want similar results!
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Triumph said:
You haven't seen TEH GALLUPS????
Click to expand...
And Obama got five supers, including Byrd.

5-19-08 - Added DNC Dwight Pelz (WA) for Obama
- Added Sen. Robert Byrd (WV) for Obama
- Added DNC Larry Gates (KS) for Obama
- Added DNC Blake Johnson (AK) and DNC Cindy Spanyers (AK) for Obama

Obama hits back at McCain hard on foreign policy, and then lands an uppercut on lobbyists for good measure.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/05/19/1041108.aspx

*whap*
*biff*
 
S

sangreal

Member
When I was in the Netherlands this past week people kept asking me about Obama. Everyone wanted me to to assure them he could win
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
pxleyes said:
And here I thought she was going to go out with some sort of grace. CRUSH HER!
Click to expand...

I don't see that as a negative attack. She hasn't done anything negative in awhile, and her tone suggests she's just staying in this for her diehard supporters. Electability is her only argument now, and it's not surprising that she keeps hammering the point down. I think she's right in many aspects - I think she'd have an easier time taking Ohio and Penn. for instance, but then again Obama is going to be more competitive in states like NC and Iowa.

Interestingly she's been citing this polling data from Karl Rove lol
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/05/roves-latest-el.html

Map
http://a.abcnews.go.com/images/Politics/McCainClintonObama051608.pdf

I don't think Clinton is going to take Florida, and I don't think McCain will take Wis., but the rest of the map is spot on
 
T

Tamanon

Banned
What's even more interesting is that Bill seemed to cite that Rove polling data before Rove himself wrote about it.....odd.
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
Won't the huge percent of black voters in the southern states help Obama out significantly, maybe even enough to win SC or Mississippi in the general election?
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Predictions!

Oregon

Obama 58
Clinton 42

Kentucky

Obama 32
Clinton 68

Bonus prediction: the popular vote for the night will be virtually unchanged. <100k in either direction.
 
B

bob_arctor

Tough_Smooth
051208BushWright1_j4b3s6.gif


I'm gonna go ahead and assume that "Less Likely" percentage has gone up since the Bush speech in Israel and McCain's accompanying "Yeah, what he said!"
 
T

Tamanon

Banned
Dax01 said:
Won't the huge percent of black voters in the southern states help Obama out significantly, maybe even enough to win SC or Mississippi in the general election?
Click to expand...

Depends on turnout. Remember, they usually vote democrat anyways, but Obama might energize the base more and have more turnout.
 
T

titiklabingapat

Member
Dax01 said:
Won't the huge percent of black voters in the southern states help Obama out significantly, maybe even enough to win SC or Mississippi in the general election?
Click to expand...
That's the theory.

Correct me if I'm wrong, poligaf, but don't black voters really under represented because they do not vote as often or is that an overblown assumption on my part?
 
P

pxleyes

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
I don't see that as a negative attack. She hasn't done anything negative in awhile, and her tone suggests she's just staying in this for her diehard supporters. Electability is her only argument now, and it's not surprising that she keeps hammering the point down. I think she's right in many aspects - I think she'd have an easier time taking Ohio and Penn. for instance, but then again Obama is going to be more competitive in states like NC and Iowa.

Interestingly she's been citing this polling data from Karl Rove lol
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/05/roves-latest-el.html

Map
http://a.abcnews.go.com/images/Politics/McCainClintonObama051608.pdf

I don't think Clinton is going to take Florida, and I don't think McCain will take Wis., but the rest of the map is spot on
Click to expand...
Unfortunately while the attack is nothing new, it is still an attack. I though with this past week of basically silence that we wouldn't be dealing with more of these attacks form her. She had gone back to being positive and focusing on her not what she thinks Obama can or can not do in the fall. While the argument has 0 merit, it wont stop others from hearing about it and drawing judgment off of it.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
PhoenixDark said:
I don't think Clinton is going to take Florida, and I don't think McCain will take Wis., but the rest of the map is spot on
Click to expand...

Wisconsin for McCain? WTF? At the least that should be toss-up. Wisconsin went for Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004.
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
Tamanon said:
Depends on turnout. Remember, they usually vote democrat anyways, but Obama might energize the base more and have more turnout.
Click to expand...
I'm just wondering because in the last general election, all of the southern states with a huge black population voted Republican.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
pxleyes said:
Unfortunately while the attack is nothing new, it is still an attack. I though with this past week of basically silence that we wouldn't be dealing with more of these attacks form her. She had gone back to being positive and focusing on her not what she thinks Obama can or can not do in the fall. While the argument has 0 merit, it wont stop others from hearing about it and drawing judgment off of it.
Click to expand...

Of course it's an attack - she's still in the race and has every right to hit her political rival - my point is that the tone isn't negative. This isn't "Obama doesn't care about regular people" or any of the other shit she pulled in Indiana. To me a negative attack has to have teeth, and has to be aimed at the head - like McCain bringing up Ayers after Obama rightfully smacked him over the lobbyists that run his campaign
 
B

Beer Monkey

Member
PhatSaqs said:
Obama has the gloves off for real.
Click to expand...

That's the way to play it. Chicago style.

Every time they hit Obama, he needs to hit back harder. Incessantly.

Dems don't need any more pussies. We all know how well that worked for guys like Dukakis and Kerry.
 
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