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[danm999]

Brexit had a high turnout from multiple demographics, so a Brexit turnout would be a good thing in this case. I feel like Brexit and the situation surrounding it is almost becoming a myth at this point, which is weird considering how recent it is.

People didn't pay attention to the polls and were surprised. So they vowed to not make the same mistake again by again not paying attention to polls.

It's surreal.

 

[dramatis]

I love living in New York, but it sucks during election season. I have little desire to go out and cast a vote because we all know it's one of the bluest states. And don't get me wrong, I still do it out of the principle of the matter, even though it feels pointless in the grand scheme of things.

I actually wanted to make a thread about this but figured this thread is as good as any.

Should be happier. Swing states get bombed with ads, canvassers knocking on your doors, canvassers calling all the time on your phone, etc.

Also be glad you're in NY and not CA, where they have 17 ballot initiatives to vote on, on top of all the elected positions lol

 

[Jay Sosa]

So, basically, Madam President.

surely you mean 'yes your lizard highness'

 

[SenorArdilla]

Don't worry, Trump has some new info on Hilary:

Spoiler

Spoiler

lmao

 

[Wiz]

lmao, this gif is my favorite

 

[FantasticMrFoxdie]

Don't worry, Trump has some new info on Hilary:

Spoiler

Spoiler

oh my goood

2spooky4turtle

 

[PHOENIXZERO]

How is Michigan only lean D? Isn't Hillary up by 10 points there?

Depends,on who and what part of the state they poll and when it comes to elections the turnout in Metro-Detroit, it's a state that's voted Democrat for President in the last six elections (and Republican the five before that) but we have a (awful) Republican governor and house.

 

[B-Dubs]

I love living in New York, but it sucks during election season. I have little desire to go out and cast a vote because we all know it's one of the bluest states. And don't get me wrong, I still do it out of the principle of the matter, even though it feels pointless in the grand scheme of things.

I actually wanted to make a thread about this but figured this thread is as good as any.

Nah, we're lucky. No campaign ads due to how expensive the downstate media market can be. I will note that downticket still needs your support.

 

[massoluk]

Utah is toss up, Texas is only Leaning Republican, lol. Amazing electon

 

[HK-47]

Nah, we're lucky. No campaign ads due to how expensive the downstate media market can be. I will note that downticket still needs your support.

Plus everyone knows the way the state is voting on a national level and that where the most money for ads would come from.

 

[capitalCORN]

As a Canadian, I hope to GOD you all go out a vote Hillary. DO IT!

 

[Dimmle]

I love living in New York, but it sucks during election season. I have little desire to go out and cast a vote because we all know it's one of the bluest states. And don't get me wrong, I still do it out of the principle of the matter, even though it feels pointless in the grand scheme of things.

I actually wanted to make a thread about this but figured this thread is as good as any.

Try living in a solid red state where you vote out of principle and you know your interests won't be reflected in the EC.

 

[Deleted member 80556]

i dont like her at all, but trump crumbling means i dont have to actually go out and vote for her.

What about Senate? Do you care about the Democratic platform actually being voted in the country?

 

[Bluth54]

Iowa is such a confusing outlier here

Don't blame me I live in Iowa and have already early voted for Hillary.

 

[Korey]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Can someone explain to me what a "tipping point" state on the map is?

And the "chance of tipping election" in the table. What determines if a state is a tipping point?

Does it mean it's typically considered a swing state, even though it may lean very blue or very red this specific election?

 

[Zubz]

Fuck Toomey. I'll be voting to take him out.

Same here.

 

[Piggus]

You don't have to be so rude about it. Do you think you can catch more flies with vinegar?

Sorry, but people who act like a ballot only has one thing to vote for could have some sense slapped into them.

 

[Pyrokai]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Can someone explain to me what a "tipping point" state on the map is?

And the "chance of tipping election" in the table. What determines if a state is a tipping point?

Does it mean it's typically considered a swing state, even though it may lean very blue or very red this specific election?

I think the tipping point is that these states have enough election votes that they could change the outcome of the election depending which way they went. If Ohio and Florida both went red, that's like a 30% change in the possibility of Trump winning.

 

[Korey]

I think the tipping point is that these states have enough election votes that they could change the outcome of the election depending which way they went. If Ohio and Florida both went red, that's like a 30% change in the possibility of Trump winning.

Why is New Hampshire a tipping point with 4 votes then?

 

[wenis]

Please don't get banned before Election Day. I've missed your utterly delusional color commentary.

Would you tho... WOULD YOU?

 

[Miletius]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Can someone explain to me what a "tipping point" state on the map is?

And the "chance of tipping election" in the table. What determines if a state is a tipping point?

Does it mean it's typically considered a swing state, even though it may lean very blue or very red this specific election?

No. A tipping point state is a state that will decide the election in the event of a close race. So, if, for example, the night is neck and neck, the tipping point is the state that is most likely to give H or T the edge and push them over 270 electoral votes based on that model. In that map, it's PA, which means that PA is most likely to push Hillary over 270 electoral votes with the current polling.

I guess another way to put it is that PA is the state that is looking the least good for Clinton and Trump that either of them would need to win in order to have 270 electoral votes and win the election. Note that looking the least good, in this case, means an 88 percent forecasted chance for Clinton to win the state.

Another way to look at it is that Trump would have to win all the states to the right of the tipping point and PA in order to have the easiest path to win the electoral college on election night. That means he'd have to fight through all that blue and win PA in order to secure the presidency at this point.

You can read more at: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/ (scroll down to the tipping points section)

 

[HP_Wuvcraft]

Election Night is going to be amazing in either direction.

 

[Korey]

No. A tipping point state is a state that will decide the election in the event of a close race. So, if, for example, the night is neck and neck, the tipping point is the state that is most likely to give H or T the edge and push them over 270 electoral votes based on that model. In that map, it's PA, which means that PA is most likely to push Hillary over 270 electoral votes with the current polling.

I guess another way to put it is that PA is the state that is looking the least good for Clinton and Trump that either of them would need to win in order to have 270 electoral votes and win the election. Note that looking the least good, in this case, means an 88 percent forecasted chance for Clinton to win the state.

Another way to look at it is that Trump would have to win all the states to the right of the tipping point and PA in order to have the easiest path to win the electoral college on election night. That means he'd have to fight through all that blue and win PA in order to secure the presidency at this point.

You can read more at: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/ (scroll down to the tipping points section)

Thanks. I get it, kind of. It's not really intuitive, but it has to do with all their simulations (which we don't get to see). So it's a combination of being a "toss up" state and the number of EVs of that state, right?

 

[Miletius]

Thanks. I get it, kind of. It's not really intuitive, but it has to do with all their simulations (which we don't get to see). So it's a combination of being a "toss up" state and the number of EVs of that state, right?

Yeah, percentage chance win is probably a better description than toss up, but I think you understand what it means. Chance to win the state and the number of EV's that the state has, linearly sequenced, with a special notch at 270.

 

[B.O.O.M]

But Van Damme likes Trump! It's a big deal!

 

[evanmisha]

Dear AmericaGAF,

I ask only one thing of you on election night. When they announce Hillary has won and the GAF thread opens, please spam it with that GIF of Penny dancing with the laptop.

With love,
CanadaGAF

 

[EYEL1NER]

As a Colorado Springs resident, you should see the attitude toward Clinton around here. Most people treat it like a toss-up.

I don't presume to know everything about Colorado Springs but there is a massive military presence there, to include retirees, GS positions, and veteran contractors in addition to regular old active duty personnel. I would have loved for the military to have said "Man, we love voting Republican so we can protect our yearly raises but this Trump guy is despicable, maybe we should rethink this." But nope... Military Times polls have had Trump AND Gary Johnson over Clinton. I see anti-Hillary memes and pro-Trump comments fairly often from Active Duty and retirees on my Facebook.
So that could be a huge reason why Colorado Springs may be experiencing some uncertainty regarding Clinton.

 

[Einchy]

Don't worry, Trump has some new info on Hilary:

Spoiler

Spoiler

Weird Twitter is best Twitter.

 

[Joeku]

Dear AmericaGAF,

I ask only one thing of you on election night. When they announce Hillary has won and the GAF thread opens, please spam it with that GIF of Penny dancing with the laptop.

With love,
CanadaGAF

Also, many blowup bans and republican tears gifs. Good luck, America!

 

[Kas]

Don't worry, Trump has some new info on Hilary:

Spoiler

Spoiler

Legit lol'd

And I hope to God my state continues to stay blue. I'd love to be able to vote against Trump, Ayotte, and fucking Guinta.

 

[Laieon]

I voted from 1/2 way across the world, there's no excuse for you not to.

 

[Already Torn]

Yeah barring a major terrorist attack in the next 2 weeks Trump is going to lose. He was done after the first debate. At this point the only thing that matters is the Senate. I pray that Ayotte and Toomey can hold on and that the GOP will be brazen enough to block her SCOTUS noms for another 4 years.

I’m still voting because he has a good chance to win Iowa, and ultimately the more states he wins, the less of a mandate it will be seen as for Hillary.

Other races I couldn’t care less about. Grassley and Loebsack are both guaranteed re-election, and municipal races are meaningless to me as I don’t plan on staying in Iowa City past graduation anyways.

Eww, I'm voting Toomey out, and I don't even live in PA anymore.

 

[Borman]

This Nintendo ad is perfect for Trump.

 

[subrock]

As a Canadian, I hope to GOD you all go out a vote Hillary. DO IT!

Same. The gun ban and subsequent confiscations will make visiting the white male prison camps an absolute delight!

 

[Spectone]

If Clinton didn't want to ban guns, she wouldn't be railing against the SCOTUS decision that told states and cities that they can't ban guns.

She's also on record as advocating for "Australian-style reform" which means a ban and mandatory confiscation.

Australia post gun ban in the minds of American gun freaks

 

[Measley]

if Ohio goes to Trump....the shame will approach the levels I feel for telling people I live in Ohio.

I've heard that polling for Ohio has largely ignored Franklin county (where Columbus is located for those who don't live in the state). I don't know how true that is, but that could explain the Trump advantage in the polls.

 

[yanipheonu]

Dear AmericaGAF,

I ask only one thing of you on election night. When they announce Hillary has won and the GAF thread opens, please spam it with that GIF of Penny dancing with the laptop.

With love,
CanadaGAF

I just now realize the sheer amount of unadulterated joy this forum is going to experience with a Clinton win.
This is gonna be good.

 

[Pryce]

If Republicans can't each out to millenills and minorities one has to wonder how they can win any presidential election going forward.

Safe Democratic states give them a large base; much more than any Republican. Throw in a few swing states and they can win guaranteed.

 

[Angelus Errare]

I actually hope if/when they announce a Clinton win that mods wave banning the more vocal trump supporters for 24hrs, so everyone can post "We did it" gifs to them.

 

[crackhead_bob]

I don't presume to know everything about Colorado Springs but there is a massive military presence there, to include retirees, GS positions, and veteran contractors in addition to regular old active duty personnel. I would have loved for the military to have said "Man, we love voting Republican so we can protect our yearly raises but this Trump guy is despicable, maybe we should rethink this." But nope... Military Times polls have had Trump AND Gary Johnson over Clinton. I see anti-Hillary memes and pro-Trump comments fairly often from Active Duty and retirees on my Facebook.
So that could be a huge reason why Colorado Springs may be experiencing some uncertainty regarding Clinton.

Isn't Colorade Springs ground zero of the evangelical movement. or at the very least a hotbed. I know it's where Fuck Ups on the Family is based. Has James Dobson had any input on this election? I know he has, but it seems that he's been overshadowed by Jerry Falwell Jr., Tony Perkins, and Franklin Graham, but in past presidential cycles he's been more of a prominent voice.

 

[Gavin Darklighter]

Election Night is going to be amazing in either direction.

One way or another America WILL be great again

 

[Markitron]

Have there been any elections similar to this one polls-wise, and if so how did they turn out? Were the final numbers close to the predicted?

Not a US citizen so just curious.

 

[besada]

I actually hope if/when they announce a Clinton win that mods wave banning the more vocal trump supporters for 24hrs, so everyone can post "We did it" gifs to them.

I imagine there will be more than enough account suicides and other meltdowns to fill any reasonable being's need for salt for years. Bring extra containers and store some up for later.

 

[iRAWRasaurus]

if Ohio goes to Trump....the shame will approach the levels I feel for telling people I live in Ohio.

Doing my part to prevent Trump from winning Ohio.

 

[jiggle]

If Republicans can't each out to millenills and minorities one has to wonder how they can win any presidential election going forward.

Safe Democratic states give them a large base; much more than any Republican. Throw in a few swing states and they can win guaranteed.

More autopsy reports are needed
2012 wasn't clear enough

 

[IrishNinja]

if Ohio goes to Trump....the shame will approach the levels I feel for telling people I live in Ohio.

this, but with FL

 

[ScientificPizza]

How early is too early to call it?

You're two weeks and one day early

VOTE

 

[Haunted]

I know how 538 arrives at their probability numbers, being on the cautious and conservative side, treating undecideds seriously etc.

And still, every time I see their current numbers which should calm me, I recall that time my soldier went up in X-Com and straight up whiffed on that 87% Hit Chance...

 

[Tranqueris]

More autopsy reports are needed
2012 wasn't clear enough

The autopsy: "Stop being racist and hating gay people and women."

Voters and politicians: "We lost because we didn't get more of that endless supply of white vote. Party like it's 1982!"

 

[Cerium]

I just now realize the sheer amount of unadulterated joy this forum is going to experience with a Clinton win.
This is gonna be good.

It's not going to be euphoric for me unless we take the Senate and at least make major gains in the House. I will be exuberant if we take both. I've waited all my life to see Democrats control all three branches of government. At last. A dream realized.