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Ebola: Doctors told to prep for global outbreak after victim allowed on two planes

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I'm so very sad for all of the people who have suffered from the Ebola virus. And the people who are suffering and who will suffer in the future. Things like this are very sad.

I'm not scared for my safety, because I don't think that Ebola will spread that much. I certainly hope not. But I know more people are going to suffer and that makes me sad. :<
 

lednerg

Member
Screen_Shot_2014-08-28_at_12.07.40_PM.0.png


http://www.vox.com/cards/ebola-outbreak-2014/why-is-ebola-in-the-news
 

akira28

Member
The crazy shit is that it's a tobacco plant that cures it. 100% effective. Just some random plant that has a natural immunity to Ebola/Marburg.

how random is that? holy shit conservationism.
 

Kathian

Banned
I find it odd that they don't mention that a virus can mutate in the other direction as well, into a disease that is less transferable/virulent.

I think its telling that an Ebola virus which is less deadly is the one that is spreading so rapidly. Virus mutation is just evolution very quickly; I think it might grow less Virulent the only issues is that as it mutates it is difficult to counter scientifically.

You'll probably end up with more than one sub-type across this outbreak. A deadly version basically hiding under the surface and spreadable due to the crisis the less deadly virus is causing by spreading so much.
 

robochimp

Member

That plant is used as an industrial platform for the production of pharmaceuticals including monoclonal antibodies, which is what ZMapp is. ZMapp consists of antibodies originally created in mice

It is not a miracle plant that holds the cure for Ebola.
 

aaaaa0

Member
That plant is used as an industrial platform for the production of pharmaceuticals including monoclonal antibodies, which is what ZMapp is. ZMapp consists of antibodies originally created in mice

It is not a miracle plant that holds the cure for Ebola.

Pretty much this. Its not that some random plant naturally produced some sort of cure for Ebola. In fact, some smart engineers found that the tobacco plant is convenient for humans to manipulate genetically. And they did so in order to artificially produce the mouse antibodies that actually make up the drug.

If the tobacco plant never existed, the engineers would have just chosen some other suitable host plant to manipulate...
 

akira28

Member
That plant is used as an industrial platform for the production of pharmaceuticals including monoclonal antibodies, which is what ZMapp is. ZMapp consists of antibodies originally created in mice

It is not a miracle plant that holds the cure for Ebola.

ah. thanks for clarifying. I know that the plant is a model organism, but some of the news articles made it seem like plant -> Zmapp. Not mentioning the antibodies from mice + GM plant experimentation bit.
 

Liberty4all

Banned
I know folks have said we have nothing to worry about, but the massive spread and rise of cases combined with the report on mutations is kind of scary.
 

Raist

Banned
First confirmed case in Senegal reported by the WHO.

http://www.afro.who.int/en/clusters...ak-news/4265-ebola-virus-disease-senegal.html

On 30 August 2014, Senegal’s Ministry of Public Health and Social Affairs provided WHO with details about a case of Ebola virus disease (EVD) announced in that country on 29 August.

WHO has also received details of the emergency investigation immediately launched by the Government. Testing and confirmation of Ebola were undertaken by a laboratory at the Institut Pasteur in Dakar.

The case is a 21-year-old male native of Guinea, who arrived in Dakar, by road, on 20 August and stayed with relatives at a home in the outskirts of the city.

On 23 August, he sought medical care for symptoms that included fever, diarrhoea, and vomiting. He received treatment for malaria, but did not improve and left the facility.

After leaving the facility, he continued to reside with his relatives. Though the investigation is in its early stages, he is not presently known to have travelled elsewhere.

On 26 August, he was referred to a specialized facility for infectious diseases, still showing the same symptoms, and was hospitalized.

On 27 August, authorities in Conakry, Guinea, issued an alert, informing medical services in Guinea and neighbouring countries, that a person, who was a close contact of a confirmed EVD patient, had escaped the surveillance system.

That alert prompted testing at the Dakar laboratory, launched an investigation, and triggered urgent contact tracing.
 

Nivash

Member
I know folks have said we have nothing to worry about, but the massive spread and rise of cases combined with the report on mutations is kind of scary.

Mutations isn't the same thing as the virus leveling up though, it just makes things a bit more complicated. A virus like Ebola, that's very small and has very few genes, is not particularly likely to undergo very drastic changes because there's just no room for it. It's using those genes. If it switches one gene for another it will lose whatever benefit the original gene has. This means that the vast majority of mutations will change very little about how the virus behaves.

Take HIV. It's been around for decades, has infected tens of millions and is one of the most, if not the most mutative virus currently known to man. And yet it behaves more or less exactly the same way as it always has. The problem with a high mutation rate lies in something else - it circumvents the systems we use both for acquiring natural immunity and vaccines. It works this way basically; switching the components of a gene randomly will almost always disrupt the gene and lead to function loss, which basically dooms that virus particle. In the vast, vast vast majority of cases where it instead produces something viable the change will be a tiny, almost insignificant alteration that results in a gene producing a protein with pretty much the exact same function but that looks just a little bit differently.

While the virus behaves the same way after this it completely short-circuits any immune response that depended on the exact antigen that the previous protein presented. The result is loss of immunity or loss of vaccine effectiveness.

If you take a closer look at the NPR article the expert pretty much admits that there is no real reason to panic over this. He says "That's very hard to say. In most cases, the answer would be 'no,But Ebola is obviously a concern and very virulent. I'd say it's too early at this point to speculate on what any mutation or any change, even with rapid evolution, might lead to." That's basically doctor speak for "this almost never happens and I'm 99,999% sure that it won't happen this time either but I'm sure as hell not going down in history as the guy that said there wasn't a chance in case I'm wrong".
 

Raist

Banned
The WHO published a study of the introduction and spread of the virus in Nigeria. It's quite interesting and highlights the problems in containing the disease.

http://who.int/mediacentre/news/ebola/3-september-2014/en/

Background on the Port Harcourt index case

Ebola virus was imported into Nigeria via an infected air traveller, who entered Lagos on 20 July and died 5 days later. One close contact of the Lagos case fled the city, where he was under quarantine, to seek treatment in Port Harcourt.

The close contact was treated, from 1 to 3 August, at a Port Harcourt hotel, by what would turn out to be the city’s index case. This case was a male physician who developed symptoms of weakness and fever on 11 August and died of Ebola on 22 August. His infection was confirmed on 27 August by the virology laboratory at Lagos University Teaching Hospital.

The male physician in Port Harcourt is therefore indirectly linked to Nigeria’s first case.

The case history of the index case in Port Harcourt is important, as it reveals multiple high-risk opportunities for transmission of the virus to others.

After onset of symptoms, on 11 August, and until 13 August, the physician continued to treat patients at his private clinic, and operated on at least two. On 13 August, his symptoms worsened; he stayed at home and was hospitalized on 16 August.

Prior to hospitalization, the physician had numerous contacts with the community, as relatives and friends visited his home to celebrate the birth of a baby.

Once hospitalized, he again had numerous contacts with the community, as members of his church visited to perform a healing ritual said to involve the laying on of hands. During his 6 day period of hospitalization, he was attended by the majority of the hospital’s health care staff.

On 21 August, he was taken to an ultrasound clinic, where 2 physicians performed an abdominal scan. He died the next day.

The additional 2 confirmed cases are his wife, also a doctor, and a patient at the same hospital where he was treated. Additional staff at the hospital are undergoing tests.

Given these multiple high-risk exposure opportunities, the outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Port Harcourt has the potential to grow larger and spread faster than the one in Lagos.

The response

Nigerian health workers and WHO epidemiologists are monitoring more than 200 contacts. Of these, around 60 are considered to have had high-risk or very high-risk exposure.

The highest-risk exposures occurred in family members and in health care workers and patients at the facility where the index case was hospitalized. Church members who visited the index case while he was hospitalized are also considered at high risk.

The government, supported by WHO, UNICEF, and MSF (Doctors without Borders), has introduced a number of emergency measures. More will be introduced later this week.

An Ebola Emergency Operations Centre has been activated, with support from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A mobile laboratory, with RT-PCR diagnostic capacity, is set up and functional.

A 26-bed isolation facility for the management of Ebola cases is in place, with plans for possible expansion. WHO has 15 technical experts on the ground.

Twenty-one contact-tracing teams are at work; they have good training, provided by WHO, and adequate transportation, thanks to government support. Two decontamination teams are equipped and operational, as is a burial team.

Port Harcourt is the capital of Rivers State. WHO, together with the Rivers State Port Health Service, has assessed public health measures at airport gates and other points of entry. Screening is under way at domestic and international airport gates.

Social mobilization efforts have been stepped up, initially targeting key community and religious leaders.

However, civil unrest, security issues, and public fear of Ebola create serious problems that could hamper response operations. Military escorts are needed for movements into the isolation and treatment centre.
 

Retro

Member
Not sure if this needed it's own thread, so I figured I'd play it safe and just throw it in this one, since it seems to be the catch-all Ebola thread;

Sierra Leone declares Ebola lockdown
Sierra Leone - one of the countries worst hit by West Africa's Ebola outbreak - has announced a three-day lockdown to try to tackle the disease.

From 19 to 21 September people will not be allowed to leave their homes, a senior official said.

The aim of the move is to allow health workers to isolate new cases to prevent the disease from spreading further.

The outbreak has killed about 2,100 people in Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea and Nigeria in recent months.

The World Health Organization (WHO) announced on Friday that health workers could be given vaccines as from November, when safety tests are completed.

More than 20 health workers have lost their lives to the virus in Sierra Leone since the start of the outbreak in March. (source)
 

commedieu

Banned
They've run out of the cure.

With all supplies of an experimental drug exhausted, doctors and nurses caring for the third Ebola patient to return to the USA will rely on conventional methods of treating symptoms and preventing complications.

Physician Richard Sacra, 51, arrived Friday at the Nebraska Medical Center in Omaha's special Biocontainment Unit, one of only four such specialized units in the USA, which is designed for patients with dangerous and highly infectious diseases. Although Sacra works as a family physician in Worcester, Mass., he is also an experienced medical missionary, and he returned to Liberia to replace staff who had fallen ill with Ebola.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...cted-with-ebola-arrives-in-nebraska/15119223/
 

Raist

Banned
I've updated the charts I made some time ago with the latest figures, showing the number of cases and deaths for each country. Note that these figures include suspected cases not yet confirmed in the lab.

ebr1qdb.jpg


The number of deaths in Liberia is now higher than in Guinea and Sierra Leone combined.
It's likely it's not gonna stop anytime soon as there's still barely anything functional over there judging by the WHO's latest report.

eb282j3f.jpg
 

Yamauchi

Banned
Ebola spread exponential in Liberia, thousands of cases expected in September: WHO

GENEVA (Reuters) - The Ebola virus is spreading exponentially in Liberia, where many thousands of new cases expected over the coming three weeks, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Monday.

In a statement, the WHO said that motorbike-taxis and regular taxis are "a hot source of potential virus transmission" in Liberia where conventional Ebola control interventions "are not having an adequate impact".

The United Nations agency said that aid partners need to scale-up current efforts against Ebola by three-to-four fold in Liberia and elsewhere in West Africa. In Liberia it had killed 1,089 people among 1,871 cases, according to the WHO's update of last Friday.

(Reporting by Stephanie Nebehay; editing by Tom Miles)

http://news.yahoo.com/ebola-spread-...sands-cases-expected-september-161927694.html

BBC report on the same topic: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-29115298
 

Ponn

Banned
I actually watched those interviews with the two doctors that were brought back. I'm not trying to say PANIC but my eyebrow did raise at something. Both of the doctors were in contact with their significant others, I believe in the same bed within like a day of them finding out they had Ebola. The one doctors families actually returned and was in contact with who knows how many people. I'm just saying there seems to be a lot of holes in keeping this contained from people that are supposedly experts on this.
 

Nivash

Member
I actually watched those interviews with the two doctors that were brought back. I'm not trying to say PANIC but my eyebrow did raise at something. Both of the doctors were in contact with their significant others, I believe in the same bed within like a day of them finding out they had Ebola. The one doctors families actually returned and was in contact with who knows how many people. I'm just saying there seems to be a lot of holes in keeping this contained from people that are supposedly experts on this.

Was this before or after they developed symptoms? Ebola can't spread before that and if they had their infection laboratory confirmed very early on it could have been days or weeks before they were actually able to transmit the disease. I just find it highly odd that they would knowingly expose their loved ones if there was a risk.
 

Raist

Banned
Update, new numbers from the latest WHO situation report (I made the plots myself).
http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/133833/1/roadmapsitrep4_eng.pdf?ua=1

ebkoiou.jpg


The report also contains numbers for healthcare workers specifically (first number is cases, second is deaths):
Guinea: 61 - 30
Liberia: 172 - 85
Sierra Leone: 74 - 31

Also of note, less than a third of cases and less than half of deaths in Liberia are actually laboratory confirmed (compared to 80% and 90% confirmed for Guinea and SL). But I presume this is mostly due to a severe lacks in means and manpower. The report contains information about the labs, contact tracing etc facilities in all countries, and Liberia is not looking good at all compared to the other two countries.

The recent case identified in Senegal (a guy who travelled from Guinea) has not led to more infections so far.
In Senegal, one person, who travelled by road from Guinea to Dakar on 20 August, tested positive for Ebola on 27 August. 74 contacts are being followed-up, none of whom have tested positive for EVD so far.

Nigeria has 21 cases and 8 deaths, and it seems like the situation is well controlled (the single case mentioned below is the one in the OP).
In Nigeria, all cases in the transmission chain are linked to a single person who travelled from Liberia to Lagos on 20 July. Among the contacts of this case-patient, one person travelled to Port Harcourt and was the source of further local transmission; this transmission is at present limited to four cases. As a top priority, contact follow-up, supported by the highest authorities, has been implemented in Lagos and Port Harcourt. In Lagos, 347 contacts have now completed 21-day follow-up, and 4 contacts are still being monitored. In Port Harcourt, 164 contacts have now completed 21-day follow-up, and 359 contacts are still being monitored.

The unrelated outbreak in DRC has 71 cases so far, with 40 deaths.
 

seb_n

Member
Just read this awful story on the BBC,

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-29256443

Eight members of a team trying to raise awareness about Ebola have been killed by villagers using machetes and clubs in Guinea, officials say.

Some of the bodies - of health workers, local officials and journalists - were found in a septic tank in a village school near the city of Nzerekore.

Things are pretty bleak out there, the lack of understanding of basic hygene just shows how even basic education (or the lack of) can transform remote communities.
 
the benefit of a J curve is any change to properly stop it will bring the line down in a straight line. right now the J curve represents exponential growth. 1 to 3, 3 to 6, 6 to 12 and so on, but if you plug that down to 1 to 2, 2 to 4, 4 to 8, that graph will crash and if you bring it down to 1-2, 2-3,3-4. it will crash and flatline at the bottom at which point ebola will be sustained
 
So...
- People break into the rehab center to "save" family and friends.
- People kill doctors trying to raise awareness about the disease.
- Local news blackout

Holy crap, they're doing everything to make it worse.
 

Raist

Banned
the benefit of a J curve is any change to properly stop it will bring the line down in a straight line. right now the J curve represents exponential growth. 1 to 3, 3 to 6, 6 to 12 and so on, but if you plug that down to 1 to 2, 2 to 4, 4 to 8, that graph will crash and if you bring it down to 1-2, 2-3,3-4. it will crash and flatline at the bottom at which point ebola will be sustained

wat
 

xbhaskarx

Member
So...
- People break into the rehab center to "save" family and friends.
- People kill doctors trying to raise awareness about the disease.
- Local news blackout

Holy crap, they're doing everything to make it worse.

Where is there a "local news blackout"?
Maybe I missed it, but the only thing I see is this comment:

Sudan bans reporting on Ebola

This will definitely end well.

Sudan is nowhere near this ebola outbreak, it's clear on the other side of Africa.
 

Raist

Banned
Sudan is nowhere near this ebola outbreak, it's clear on the other side of Africa.

Well, there is currently an outbreak in Northern DRC (unrelated to the one in West Africa), which is a lot closer to Sudan. But it seems fairly well controlled for now.
 
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