Jarod McChicken
Member
What the... is this for real ? This implies that a game is selling the same amount each day during the month.
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NPD Sales Results for October 2015 [Up1: Xbox #1]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
What the... is this for real ? This implies that a game is selling the same amount each day during the month.
You can't extrapolate 5 days of sales as a linear trend for the month. It would make a nice Arstechnica article, though.
Yeah, it was already announced.
Heh, interesting question. Never thought about this. I'm guessing we'll start seeing them next year.
I would imagine that things will start off with nothing but the exclusive launch titles.
panda-zebra
Member
Your fun fact only seeks to impart its own distorted image.
Fun fact:
Put that in a graph and extrapolate for a full year. That will be fun.
Oh, I hear Arstechnica is hiring!
You can't be serius lol.
Square2015
Member
Has NPD_George returned yet?
Sorry bro, you've been fooled by M.S. PR Spin. Those are shipped numbers not sell through.
The Mad Draklor
Member
No, he has also changed his name, presumably to attract less attention. Let's not badger him for more details even though we're still curious about other things.
CosmicQueso
Member
I appreciate what you're trying to do.
Unfortunately, it is very difficult to do a proper comp because of the days in release, as you point out.
However, games, in the launch month, experience an exponential decay rate. Sales start at their highest point, decline sharply for a number of days, before smoothing out.
Random internet picture as example (although not completely accurate, as some seasonality bumps occur on Saturdays and Sundays, with mid week having small dips from the curve, and of course the curve will not bottom out at 0. It's just illustrative):
Y would be sales, and X would be time.
Games do not sell X,000 copies on day 4 and the same X,000 copies on day 15. The earlier the day, the higher the % of the overall sales in the period that day accounts for.
But yes, monthly comparables are terrible. And yes, if you lined up all the games and looked at the sales after X number of days, then it would be a better comparison. But regardless, the gap here is so large as to make that kind of comparison meaningful, but not result changing.
Enjoy the game. The franchise isn't going anywhere, and some dumb sales number of a product shouldn't impact anyone's enjoyment of it.
mejin
Member
I appreciate what you're trying to do.
Unfortunately, it is very difficult to do a proper comp because of the days in release, as you point out.
However, games, in the launch month, experience an exponential decay rate. Sales start at their highest point, decline sharply for a number of days, before smoothing out.
Random internet picture as example (although not completely accurate, as some seasonality bumps occur on Saturdays and Sundays, with mid week having small dips from the curve, and of course the curve will not bottom out at 0. It's just illustrative):
Y would be sales, and X would be time.
Games do not sell X,000 copies on day 4 and the same X,000 copies on day 15. The earlier the day, the higher the % of the overall sales in the period that day accounts for.
But yes, monthly comparables are terrible. And yes, if you lined up all the games and looked at the sales after X number of days, then it would be a better comparison. But regardless, the gap here is so large as to make that kind of comparison meaningful, but not result changing.
Enjoy the game. The franchise isn't going anywhere, and some dumb sales number of a product shouldn't impact anyone's enjoyment of it.
Good post.
Yeah, Uncharted 4 didn't do so well.
LOL.
Ninja Sharingan
Banned
obviously I was talking about uncharted collection lol
Do we have uncharted numbers and has it been discussed?
Obliterator
Member
I appreciate what you're trying to do.
Unfortunately, it is very difficult to do a proper comp because of the days in release, as you point out.
However, games, in the launch month, experience an exponential decay rate. Sales start at their highest point, decline sharply for a number of days, before smoothing out.
Random internet picture as example (although not completely accurate, as some seasonality bumps occur on Saturdays and Sundays, with mid week having small dips from the curve, and of course the curve will not bottom out at 0. It's just illustrative):
Y would be sales, and X would be time.
Games do not sell X,000 copies on day 4 and the same X,000 copies on day 15. The earlier the day, the higher the % of the overall sales in the period that day accounts for.
But yes, monthly comparables are terrible. And yes, if you lined up all the games and looked at the sales after X number of days, then it would be a better comparison. But regardless, the gap here is so large as to make that kind of comparison meaningful, but not result changing.
Enjoy the game. The franchise isn't going anywhere, and some dumb sales number of a product shouldn't impact anyone's enjoyment of it.
Exactly which was illustrated nicely in the UK Charts. Halo 5s 2nd week fell by 78%
Katana_Strikes
Member
~300k inc bundles
Ninja Sharingan
Banned
That sounds pretty good I guess. Thx for the reply.
Halo 5 gonna sell more in it's first month than Uncharted 4 will across it's lifetime sales!
Some of the predictions in older NPDs were just hilarious.
Nor should it. I think the collection will also hurt uc4 sales. Here is my experience:
I played the demo before release. I started it up and got lost looking for a switch to flip to turn an elevator back on, so frustration ensued. Then I had to battle furiously some helicopter with like 2 minutes of getting used to the game systems. I died many times, more frustration. I thought, "da fuq? This is horrible. I should buy the collection because there has to be something there. Millions of gamers can't be wrong." As a side note, this is also the reasoning I used when I bought a wiiu and $350 of software. So, I then played uc1, and aside from ten minutes of likeable dialog, I was astounded at how bad the game is, truly bad. I also feel the same way about the wiiu, BTW.
I think Uncharted will sell more than 2.5 million lifetime.
I'm sorry it seemed like I was saying it was linear, it's obviously not. But given that five is much less than fifteen, comparing them straight up, as has been done in this thread, is flawed. Thanks for the charts, and admission that the comparison is sufficiently skewed as to be compared with caveats. I've learned to not post from my phone. Halo is definitely declining from its halcyon days. It's not "over."
Interesting to hear your experience. I've not played UC1 myself.
Fun post you meant, yes.
RedAssedApe
Banned
sage mode activated
Some launched in Nov and some late Oct. AC3 was late October. Not sure how to explain such high sales numbers for the worst AC game since the original. Maybe the setting? (America Fuck Yeah). lol
AC4 was released at PS4/XBone launch so that likely contributed to that bump.
Can you try the uc2 demo? I'm curious as to other's reactions to it.
Guys, do you think Halo 5 will sell 2 million ( retail ) in the US by end of this year?
It need to sell more than double of what sold first week...
For a comparation, Halo 3 sold 3.3 millions the firsts 2 weeks, and 4.82 millions in 2007.
Halo 4 sold 3.2 millions first NPD, and over 5 millions in 2012.
Halo Reach has sold 3.3 millions first NPD and less than 4.87 millions in 2010.
It need to sell more than double of what sold first week...
For a comparation, Halo 3 sold 3.3 millions the firsts 2 weeks, and 4.82 millions in 2007.
Halo 4 sold 3.2 millions first NPD, and over 5 millions in 2012.
Halo Reach has sold 3.3 millions first NPD and less than 4.87 millions in 2010.
vpance
Member
I wouldn't be surprised if Uncharted underperforms big like Halo too.
If you're not COD or BF you need to be some sort of open world RPG/looter to hit the jackpot in sales these days. GG (and SSM before they fucked themselves) are on the right track going in that direction with Horizon, and I hope ND throws their hat in the ring too for their next new IP. The genre still has much room to improve and it'd be interesting to see what they can pull off.
If you're not COD or BF you need to be some sort of open world RPG/looter to hit the jackpot in sales these days. GG (and SSM before they fucked themselves) are on the right track going in that direction with Horizon, and I hope ND throws their hat in the ring too for their next new IP. The genre still has much room to improve and it'd be interesting to see what they can pull off.
Halo is most definitely not over. Just look at once top of the world franchises like Final Fantasy. They were confident until XII. Then costs exploded and SE started to chase the CoD audience, which led to XIII, which in turn led to XIV being released early in a shit state. They turned it around with ARR and are very profitable right now and they seem to be back in the conversation with XV (highly subjective).
MS will need to rethink Halo. The eSports angle seems (so far) to be a dud. Maybe things will change after the first major. Warzone already seems like a focus on a smaller audience raising the average price of purchase with microtransactions. If I was to guess 343's next move it would be to focus on Masterchief on the campaign side and create a co-op, loot driven strike mode to rival games like Destiny and The Division.
That said Halo games will be made for the next 20 years.
DarkLordMalik
Member
I apologize if this has been asked before but have we received any more updates regarding some of the other niche releases like Dragon Quest, ToZ and Disgaea 5?
I loved NPD George but he is no creamsugar when it comes to giving numbers. I need my niche games sales figure =/
I loved NPD George but he is no creamsugar when it comes to giving numbers. I need my niche games sales figure =/
Halo reach did not sell at a constant daily rate for fifteen days. It too, would have been front loaded in the first five days.
What you have suggested is something even Microsoft PR would be proud of.
I would be shocked if U4 doesn't sell better than the first ones.
For Uncharted 4 to "underperform" in the US, it'd have to sell under what, 700k in its debut?
I don't see Uncharted 4 under 700k. Unlike 343i, Naughty Dog actually have a strong pedigree for delivering quality titles, especially recently.
It's possible, but there's no indication whatsoever, every game can POSSIBLY bomb in its next entry.
The only indication we have is that each entry sold exponentially better than its predecessor. Something like 4m -> 7m -> 10m, that's a sign of a growing and healthy franchise, not the other way around.
If only we had equivalent time periods to compare, maybe we would be able to draw confident conclusions!
Katana_Strikes
Member
Sadly not.
Ploid 3.0
Member
Wow I didn't know this, looked it up, and now looking forward to more.
Edit: It seems like Halo 5 was bound to be a disappointment unless it sold like 3-4 million in it's first few days, physical and not bundled. It's kinda good to have that kind of expectation, well unless it's budget dictated that kind of goal. It will be making some money on it's cards so there's extra revenue for them.
Deputy Moonman
Member
343 just did rethink Halo and it's good. I don't get these kind of posts. Poor initial sales don't always reflect a poor game just like really good initial sales don't always equate to a rock solid game. I think over time Halo 5's popularity and the eSports Halo community will return because the matchmaking really does shine. I'm stoked for the release of forge and BTB. Game should only get better over time as new maps and additional game-types are the only thing missing.
That's not subjective or anything...
Thebeardofknowledge
Banned
DarkLordMalik
Member
Uncharted 4 will set new sales record for the series.
When people bring games like AC and Halo and mention that they are declining, they also forget that their previous entries weren't exactly praised and loved by everyone.
In the case of Halo, Halo 4 and Master Chief Collection did a lot of damage to brand.
In the case of AC, Unity did the same to the brand and the series' sales as a whole were down.
I don't see any reason to doubt the sales of Uncharted 4 after The Last of Us. Bloodborne sold more than Demon/Dark Souls on PS4. Infamous:SS sold more than the two Infamous games on PS3. I see the the same sales trend for Uncharted 4.
It will be bigger opening than Uncharted 3, that is for certain.
When people bring games like AC and Halo and mention that they are declining, they also forget that their previous entries weren't exactly praised and loved by everyone.
In the case of Halo, Halo 4 and Master Chief Collection did a lot of damage to brand.
In the case of AC, Unity did the same to the brand and the series' sales as a whole were down.
I don't see any reason to doubt the sales of Uncharted 4 after The Last of Us. Bloodborne sold more than Demon/Dark Souls on PS4. Infamous:SS sold more than the two Infamous games on PS3. I see the the same sales trend for Uncharted 4.
It will be bigger opening than Uncharted 3, that is for certain.
We do know that Disgaea did well, no specific numbers though. One of those three had to bomb though, all three of them released at the same time serving the same audience, my money is on Dragon Quest.
Currently not interested in trying/buying the remastered, but I have enjoyed the original UC2 quite a bit on PS3. For its time, it was like watching a Die Hard movie for the first time. Watching a Die Hard movie again now might be hilarious.
Primethius
Banned
Uh, what? Games tend to be front loaded heavily. As in, the first five days. Look at the UK drop to see this in action (78% IIRC for Halo 5).
You're comparison is heavily flawed and your point doesn't even make sense.
It's hard to see Uncharted sell even more than 10 million, it will probably hit all the milestones significantly faster, but it won't have the same legs.
I just don't see it selling 13-15 million.
boring is just my opinion. but halo 5 did look generic.