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NPD Sales Results for October 2015 [Up1: Xbox #1]

The absolute bare minimum for Uncharted 3 is 7 million because that's the average of 21 million split between three titles, but since we know that it sold 5 million in its first month alone & it also doubled UC2 in its launch week, & we know that Uncharted 1 sold 3 million as of UC3's launch, then 9 million is the lowest estimate.
Which is perfectly fine and Uncharted 4 should have no issues selling more than that and hence creating a new sales milestone for the series considering the popularity of PS4 worldwide. This is nowhere near the 13-15 million you were considering as a benchmark for UC 4. So my point still stands :)
 

Bgamer90

Banned
Basketball or football have new players, stats and team changes every year.
Car racing not so much.

I definitely agree but both genres are viewed by hardcore gamers as heavily milked.

Heck, Geoff probably combined the two genres into its own category for the Game Awards for that reason (haha).
 

Yurikerr

This post isn't by me, it's by a guy with the same username as me.
Basketball or football have new players, stats and team changes every year.
Car racing not so much.

And that's precisely why people keep buying sports games year after year. To play with the latest rosters.

But I pray for the day that I can get a squad update as 20$ expansion.

I definitely agree but both genres are viewed by hardcore gamers as heavily milked.

Heck, Geoff probably combined the two genres into its own category for the Game Awards for that reason (haha).

But the problem is that even if viewed as milked, sports games get a pass, but racing took the hit to the head.

How many fifa fans you know that buy the game every year? And how many racing fans are happy with just one game per generation?

Fifa doesn't put those crazy numbers just selling to the casuals.
 
Update.

Next month, PS4 and XB1 should easy beat November 2008 of the Wii ( 2.04m ) and December 2008 too ( 2.15m).
Wonder if they will close the gap January to October.

12219508_174081522938908_7845715608197443302_n.jpg

I feel like this comparison is pointless. Wii doesn't even end up being the second best selling console of all time, and doesn't even establish a successful brand and it's successor ends up being a huge failure. I would rather see a ps1 and ps2 comparison.
 
I feel like this comparison is pointless. Wii doesn't even end up being the second best selling console of all time, and doesn't even establish a successful brand and it's successor ends up being a huge failure. I would rather see a ps1 and ps2 comparison.
I have to agree. I am more interested to see how quick the Wii falls compared to PS4 and XB1. It reached new heights but also dropped like a rock compared to PS3/X360.
 

Alo0oy

Banned
Which is perfectly fine and Uncharted 4 should have no issues selling more than that and hence creating a new sales milestone for the series considering the popularity of PS4 worldwide. This is nowhere near the 13-15 million you were considering as a benchmark for UC 4. So my point still stands :)

9 million is the lowest estimate, 10 million is very very likely considering all the info we have, & I don't see UC4 selling much more than that.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
The point is that every other year is too frequent.

edit: I think we're missing the forest for the trees here. We agree racing is in a bad spot, so their strategy is to subdivide the racing genre into sim and arcade and release a game with their name on it every year? That does generate fatigue.

I see your point, but I think using Forza name every year is causing fatigue despite quality of the games.

And yeah we don't need a racing game every year or every other year since they alternate.

My point is fatigue vs. name recognition when it comes to Horizon using the Forza name. The racing genre has lowered in popularity so much in America that I feel both categories (Forza name causing fatigue, and Forza name causing attention) have little impact/are moot and therefore cancel each other out. You have some who are tired of Forza racers and others who become attracted to news of a new Forza.

In the end it's simply about the game/game quality in my opinion and unfortunately recent racing games (outside of Mario Kart) haven't sold that well in America -- even if they're good.

I do also feel that there's no need to rush a Forza Horizon 3 or a Motorsport 7. Turn 10 isn't going to stop making racing games though so I wouldn't be surprised to see a new Forza spin-off (something other than Horizon or Motorsport) sometime next year. If Horizon comes back next year then I'm expecting the game to be VERY different (e.g.: different setting) to cause more attention. Heck, maybe even calling it "Horizon 3: (insert subtitle)" instead of "Forza Horizon 3" too.
 
The real question about the inevitable PC/Xbox merge is if Xbox becomes a walled garden/ecosystem on PC or if they still ship a box called Xbox to sit in your living room. I would have thought no, because, well, it's kind of a dumb idea, but then Microsoft went whole hog into hardware in general.

I don't know if it'll be walled garden, but I imagine there will be surface-esque situation where they will ship their own hardware. Basically for people that would traditionally buy consoles.

This fits with how MS has been working on the hardware spectrum the last few years.
 

GnawtyDog

Banned
Well. I was one of who said first month Halo 5 was gonna be bigger than Uncharted 4 LT ( US only, WW i predicted Uncharted 4 over Halo)

I was terrible wrong lol. My apologies. ;)

Indeed you were :)

8 to 10 million for Uncharted 4 is my prediction.

90+ META sure. Below, 5-6m. No trust in SCE marketing dept. At least SCEA's. Slapping up a trailer and putting it up on TV is just that, another TV ad.
 

Celine

Member
I feel like this comparison is pointless. Wii doesn't even end up being the second best selling console of all time, and doesn't even establish a successful brand and it's successor ends up being a huge failure. I would rather see a ps1 and ps2 comparison.
lol, to my knowledge PS1 LTD (NPD as end 2001) is lower than the Wii one (NPD as end 2012) by a good margin (read: millions of units).
Though I doubt this info is useful to you since you seem to have a problem with Wii.
 

Mikey Jr.

Member
What would be better for MS overall?
Keeping Halo franchise console exclusive to strengthen Xbox?
Or releasing also on PC to make more revenue?

Doesn't seem to really benefit xbox hardware too much tbh.

I wouldn't be surprised if Halo 5 gets ported in a few months to PC, Win X exclusive. Then Halo 6 is day and date with PC.

I think MS is slowly backing out of this "war" with Sony and the PS4. I'm not saying MS will stop making Xbox hardware, but I think they'll stop trying to compete with Sony. They'll probably start to get more interested in trying to get more PC users into the Xbox/Win X ecosystem, and if you are still a console gamer, then thats cool! You'll still have Xbox and all the games.

At the end of the day, MS still owns Windows too.
 
lol, to my knowledge PS1 LTD (NPD as end 2001) is lower than the Wii one (NPD as end 2013) by a good margin (read: millions of units).

still ps1, ps2 and 360 is a better comparison. 360 did out sell the wii in npd. were making a comparison with the wii which is now a dead brand, if 360 and ps3 sold like the wii, and there successors sold like the wiiu, then console gaming would be dead now.
 

Celine

Member
still ps1, ps2 and 360 is a better comparison. 360 did out sell the wii in npd. were making a comparison with the wii which is now a dead brand, if 360 and ps3 sold like the wii, and there successors sold like the wiiu, then console gaming would be dead now.
You can't dismiss Wii sales performance from history just because its successor was a failure.
Of course, if you have the data, you are free to do all the comparison that you like.
 
8 to 10 million for Uncharted 4 is my prediction.

8 million tops I reckon.

The only full-price exclusive on either console that is going to hit 10+ million is a hypothetical The Last of Us 2, judging by how the first one shook up the industry and has sold 8+ million (likely closer to 10m, but that's original + remaster combined).

GT7 will sell a lot less than the series in its peak days. GoW4 will be closer to 5m. Same for Gears 4.

Horizon: Zero Dawn could be surprisingly huge, but I dunno about 10m.
 
8 million tops I reckon.

The only full-price exclusive on either console that is going to hit 10+ million is a hypothetical The Last of Us 2, judging by how the first one shook up the industry and has sold 8+ million (likely closer to 10m, but that's original + remaster combined).

GT7 will sell a lot less than the series in its peak days. GoW4 will be closer to 5m. Same for Gears 4.

Horizon: Zero Dawn could be surprisingly huge, but I dunno about 10m.
The last guardian.
It had years of preorders.
 

AniHawk

Member
still ps1, ps2 and 360 is a better comparison. 360 did out sell the wii in npd. were making a comparison with the wii which is now a dead brand, if 360 and ps3 sold like the wii, and there successors sold like the wiiu, then console gaming would be dead now.

kinect largely drove the xbox brand from 2010-2011, to the point where it was pulling in huge numbers monthly. i'm pretty sure that led to the platform outselling the wii in the end more than the kinds of people who really like gears of war judgment. it seems weird to discount the wii's audience but acknowledge the 360's overall success in one breath. so are we supposed to not count parts of the xbox either because part of its brand died pretty hard when xb1 launched too. are we supposed to not compare the 3ds to psp because the vita is a huge failure compared to its predecessor. just let me know what you arbitrarily decide what counts in the dedicated market, please.
 
Halo is coming to PC I'm pretty convinced of it after these numbers. They have to get back some lost sales somewhere
I think it would be bad move. It's annoying enough listening to people downplay the xbox one's lineup because some of their games are also on PC. I just don't see an outlier bad performance in the series, if the numbers are in fact true (no one can seem to confirm them), a reason to bail on microsoft's biggest franchise.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
In 2007, Xbox 360 has sold around 4,619,000 unit according to NPD in the second year of market.

So far, XB1 in 2015 has sold 2,273,000 unit, which mean it need to sell at least 2,346,000 unit for beat the 2007 of the 360.

Do you think can XB1 in 2015 sell more than the 360 in 2007?

12234874_174148002932260_8098871301432221379_n.jpg
 

Somnia

Member
In 2007, Xbox 360 has sold around 4,619,000 unit according to NPD in the second year of market.

So far, XB1 in 2015 has sold 2,273,000 unit, which mean it need to sell at least 2,346,000 unit for beat the 2007 of the 360.

Do you think can XB1 in 2015 sell more than the 360 in 2007?

It should be able to do over a million in Nov and Dec, possibly. So it's going to be close for sure.
 

jryi

Senior Analyst, Fanboy Drivel Research Partners LLC
Phew, finally got through this thread. Sure has been a fun ride. At first I was like "what, Xbox got a marginal victory, what a bore" and then I was like "WTF we have a new awesome leaker" and then I was like "PS4 really should have sold something like 294-297k".

And now I'm here.

The sooner some people accept the fact that Halo 5 sold much worse than the previous few games, the better.
There's this unnamed Youtube personality who is seriously skewed towards Xbox. I heard his name mentioned here once, and he's equal parts technical unawareness and economic ineptitude. But I absolutely have to go visit and check out his video titles after any meaningful Xbox One or PS4 news, and his take on things is always as inane as it is predictable. And the comments are just gold nuggets.

His followers are quite convinced, that Halo 5 has already sold something along the lines of 6.8M.

NEITHER CONSOLE SOLD LIKE SHIT.
But they kind of did.

PS4 sold less than a year ago, despite the price drop. Black Friday was just a month away in both cases. OK, Battlefront bundle in particular may shake things up, but unless PS4 clears the 1M threshold, it will be a grave disappointment. I'll actually be pretty bummed, if they do less then 1.2M.

As to Xbox One, what can I say. The number can be compared to Xbox 360 either during Halo 3 launch month (528k) or October 2007 (366k), and neither comparison is pretty. And unlike PS4, MS has now used their biggest gun. There is nothing left on the chalkboard. I doubt they'll be able to recreate their holiday miracle from last year. Not even close.

Thank Knack!
 
kinect largely drove the xbox brand from 2010-2011, to the point where it was pulling in huge numbers monthly. i'm pretty sure that led to the platform outselling the wii in the end more than the kinds of people who really like gears of war judgment. it seems weird to discount the wii's audience but acknowledge the 360's overall success in one breath. so are we supposed to not count parts of the xbox either because part of its brand died pretty hard when xb1 launched too. are we supposed to not compare the 3ds to psp because the vita is a huge failure compared to its predecessor. just let me know what you arbitrarily decide what counts in the dedicated market, please.

It'd say we should discount the parts of the 360s sales due to the Kinect if we are trying to use that data to predict future performance. Motion controls were a fad. They sold well based on the hype of what they could do and fell hard based on the reality of what they could actually do. BOTH the Wii and Xbox brands suffered because of this. The Wii's success hid the downward slope of Nintendo game sales and tarnished the brand so much that the Wii U is a flop. The XB1 killed its momentum by trying to force the Kinect into every console at launch. They've now had to backtrack by removing the Kinect as a standard accessory and show little to no interest of supporting it going forward.

We are examining these historic trends to assess the current state of the gaming industry and to predict where it is going. To include sales associated with fad motion controls that no longer play any part in modern gaming only clouds the issue. The real takeaway is that both the Wii and 360 weren't as dominant as they appeared at the time. They were riding a trend that could not be sustained.

It'd be like if I pretended that I was rich by running up debt on my credit cards. As an outsider if all you did was look at the time I was spending like crazy, you'd have a very distorted view. Instead you need to look at what happened later. You'd have to look at the debt and bankruptcy that came after my wild spending and revise your previous assessment of when you thought I was rich.
 
I think it would be bad move. It's annoying enough listening to people downplay the xbox one's lineup because some of their games are also on PC. I just don't see an outlier bad performance in the series, if the numbers are in fact true (no one can seem to confirm them), a reason to bail on microsoft's biggest franchise.

If you think its a bad move I've got bad news for you. At some point MS's entire ecosystem is going to exist on PC and be platform agnostic.
 
90+ META sure. Below, 5-6m. No trust in SCE marketing dept. At least SCEA's. Slapping up a trailer and putting it up on TV is just that, another TV ad.

If it's one thing you can trust is SCEA will spend big bucks on ND games when it comes to marketing .
They have done so since UC2 and i expect UC4 to be the same .
I hope we get a LE console since i looking to buy another PS4 of course it has to look good.
 

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
Phew, finally got through this thread. Sure has been a fun ride. At first I was like "what, Xbox got a marginal victory, what a bore" and then I was like "WTF we have a new awesome leaker" and then I was like "PS4 really should have sold something like 294-297k".

And now I'm here.


There's this unnamed Youtube personality who is seriously skewed towards Xbox. I heard his name mentioned here once, and he's equal parts technical unawareness and economic ineptitude. But I absolutely have to go visit and check out his video titles after any meaningful Xbox One or PS4 news, and his take on things is always as inane as it is predictable. And the comments are just gold nuggets.

His followers are quite convinced, that Halo 5 has already sold something along the lines of 6.8M.


But they kind of did.

PS4 sold less than a year ago, despite the price drop. Black Friday was just a month away in both cases. OK, Battlefront bundle in particular may shake things up, but unless PS4 clears the 1M threshold, it will be a grave disappointment. I'll actually be pretty bummed, if they do less then 1.2M.

As to Xbox One, what can I say. The number can be compared to Xbox 360 either during Halo 3 launch month (528k) or October 2007 (366k), and neither comparison is pretty. And unlike PS4, MS has now used their biggest gun. There is nothing left on the chalkboard. I doubt they'll be able to recreate their holiday miracle from last year. Not even close.


Thank Knack!

MS caught another one with their PR. That 6 million number would be close to being right if MS didnt include hardware. Me and few others got something close to that number in the UK thread just based on software only. When I first got that calculation I knew it couldnt be right...and I have no inside info... I wonder what they would all say with the right info....

...........the rest must be from digital......
 

jayu26

Member
If it's one thing you can trust is SCEA will spend big bucks on ND games when it comes to marketing .
They have done so since UC2 and i expect UC4 to be the same .
I hope we get a LE console since i looking to buy another PS4 of course it has to look good.

Odds are against you pal.
 

Loris146

Member
Phew, finally got through this thread. Sure has been a fun ride. At first I was like "what, Xbox got a marginal victory, what a bore" and then I was like "WTF we have a new awesome leaker" and then I was like "PS4 really should have sold something like 294-297k".

And now I'm here.


There's this unnamed Youtube personality who is seriously skewed towards Xbox. I heard his name mentioned here once, and he's equal parts technical unawareness and economic ineptitude. But I absolutely have to go visit and check out his video titles after any meaningful Xbox One or PS4 news, and his take on things is always as inane as it is predictable. And the comments are just gold nuggets.

His followers are quite convinced, that Halo 5 has already sold something along the lines of 6.8M.


But they kind of did.

PS4 sold less than a year ago, despite the price drop. Black Friday was just a month away in both cases. OK, Battlefront bundle in particular may shake things up, but unless PS4 clears the 1M threshold, it will be a grave disappointment. I'll actually be pretty bummed, if they do less then 1.2M.

As to Xbox One, what can I say. The number can be compared to Xbox 360 either during Halo 3 launch month (528k) or October 2007 (366k), and neither comparison is pretty. And unlike PS4, MS has now used their biggest gun. There is nothing left on the chalkboard. I doubt they'll be able to recreate their holiday miracle from last year. Not even close.


Thank Knack!

How is this even possible with 183k sold in 2 weeks in UK and 935K ( plus bundles) in 5 days in US ( two biggest market for the game ) ? Unless 900% digital of course : )

MS Pr spin is very powerful XD
 
If it's one thing you can trust is SCEA will spend big bucks on ND games when it comes to marketing .
They have done so since UC2 and i expect UC4 to be the same .
I hope we get a LE console since i looking to buy another PS4 of course it has to look good.

Yea, not sure why we're doubting that. Sure, they don't advertise the smaller titles. But you don't exactly hit the sales milestones with games like UC2/3 and TLOU with no marketing.
 
Knack sold 7 million?

You know what!?! Sure! Everything in the console space is doing great! Xboxes and sonys and nintendos, all great! Whatever your favorite franchise is? It's mine too! And it's doing better than ever and they're going to keep making more forever and ever and we are all going to live forever so we can play them all!

And you know what else, Internet? Those games and boxes that make you a grumpy sourpuss? I don't like those either. And they're terrible and everyone who likes them are terrible and they're all going to fail and fall into a big sad pit where they will cry forever. No jellybeans for them!

So, see? Everything's great! Yay everyone!
 
You know what!?! Sure! Everything in the console space is doing great! Xboxes and sonys and nintendos, all great! Whatever your favorite franchise is? It's mine too! And it's doing better than ever and they're going to keep making more forever and ever and we are all going to live forever so we can play them all!

And you know what else, Internet? Those games and boxes that make you a grumpy sourpuss? I don't like those either. And they're terrible and everyone who likes them are terrible and they're all going to fail and fall into a big sad pit where they will cry forever. No jellybeans for them!

So, see? Everything's great! Yay everyone!

I remember watching a Colbert segment suspiciously like this.
 

RexNovis

Banned
You know what!?! Sure! Everything in the console space is doing great! Xboxes and sonys and nintendos, all great! Whatever your favorite franchise is? It's mine too! And it's doing better than ever and they're going to keep making more forever and ever and we are all going to live forever so we can play them all!

And you know what else, Internet? Those games and boxes that make you a grumpy sourpuss? I don't like those either. And they're terrible and everyone who likes them are terrible and they're all going to fail and fall into a big sad pit where they will cry forever. No jellybeans for them!

So, see? Everything's great! Yay everyone!

o_O. Are.. Are you okay?

This thread man... It's something else.
 

heidern

Junior Member
Halo is coming to PC I'm pretty convinced of it after these numbers. They have to get back some lost sales somewhere

Halo has been on PC before so I don't think it would be that big of a deal either way. I think they should get the next Halo as a launch game. On it's own I don't see how another Halo can make an impact but combine it with the hype for a console launch and then it could make a splash.

A few hundred thousand consoles at best, generally. There is an academic paper on the subject.
The Effect of Superstar Software on Hardware Sales in System Markets

Interesting quote from that paper:
Obtaining exclusivity over superstars, by hardware firms, does not provide an extra boost to their own sales, but it does take away an opportunity for competing systems to increase their sales.

We are examining these historic trends to assess the current state of the gaming industry and to predict where it is going. To include sales associated with fad motion controls that no longer play any part in modern gaming only clouds the issue. The real takeaway is that both the Wii and 360 weren't as dominant as they appeared at the time. They were riding a trend that could not be sustained.

It'd be like if I pretended that I was rich by running up debt on my credit cards. As an outsider if all you did was look at the time I was spending like crazy, you'd have a very distorted view. Instead you need to look at what happened later. You'd have to look at the debt and bankruptcy that came after my wild spending and revise your previous assessment of when you thought I was rich.

The debt analogy isn't that great because correct me if I'm wrong but the Wii generated more profit than the entire Playstation and Xbox divisions since their inception. Also, in the 80s after the Atari crash someone could have said home consoles were a fad. It turns out it was the implementation was the problem rather than the concept. We may find in the future a better/sustainable implementation of motion controls succeeding at some point.
 

QaaQer

Member
Doesn't seem to really benefit xbox hardware too much tbh.

I wouldn't be surprised if Halo 5 gets ported in a few months to PC, Win X exclusive. Then Halo 6 is day and date with PC.

I think MS is slowly backing out of this "war" with Sony and the PS4. I'm not saying MS will stop making Xbox hardware, but I think they'll stop trying to compete with Sony. They'll probably start to get more interested in trying to get more PC users into the Xbox/Win X ecosystem, and if you are still a console gamer, then thats cool! You'll still have Xbox and all the games.

At the end of the day, MS still owns Windows too.

W10 doesn't have an ecosytem, not in the iOS/PSN/Xbox sense; and that is where the real money is. I don't see how releasing console games on W10 helps with profits aside from selling a few more games. Nobody on pc is going to lock themselves into the Windows Store. Exclusive games on xbox, on the other hand, get some people into that ecosystem, and they can make $1200 USD off them over 5 years--at least I think that is what an average customer is worth.
 

AniHawk

Member
We are examining these historic trends to assess the current state of the gaming industry and to predict where it is going. To include sales associated with fad motion controls that no longer play any part in modern gaming only clouds the issue. The real takeaway is that both the Wii and 360 weren't as dominant as they appeared at the time. They were riding a trend that could not be sustained.

i think that's the incorrect conclusion. people weren't attracted to motion controls because they were motion controls. people didn't buy move like they did the wii remote or kinect, because sony's designers didn't really grasp what people were after. people wanted accessible, easy to understand gameplay and at an affordable price. nintendo and microsoft put that in their platforms from the start. and it was something parents wanted because it wasn't a shootbang thing or at the very least it was something that could be done as a family.

motion controls then became an industry standard. every company aside from microsoft now has it standard as part of the controls in their system. it's part of every major mobile device too, along with touch screens. if you look at wii sports, brain age, nintendogs, wii fit, udraw, and kinect as part of this rise in accessible, novel, and different kinds of games, then mobile is the continuation of that. more, mobile rose just about the same time interest in the wii and kinect waned. the real takeaway here is that a major former segment of the dedicated gaming market left, along with several others, almost all at once. now we're going to be left with overall sales not just worse than the last generation, but the generation preceding it too.

i know people like to think this is a 'consoles are dying!' narrative but it's really more that the dedicated market is in danger of becoming irrelevant in the industry. on its current path, it appears that it's the only logical conclusion.
 

Game4life

Banned
My point is fatigue vs. name recognition when it comes to Horizon using the Forza name. The racing genre has lowered in popularity so much in America that I feel both categories (Forza name causing fatigue, and Forza name causing attention) have little impact/are moot and therefore cancel each other out. You have some who are tired of Forza racers and others who become attracted to news of a new Forza.

In the end it's simply about the game/game quality in my opinion and unfortunately Turn 10 isn't going to stop making racing games though so I wouldn't be surprised to see a new Forza spin-off (something other than Horizon or Motorsport) sometime next year. recent racing games (outside of Mario Kart) haven't sold that well in America -- even if they're good.

I do also feel that there's no need to rush a Forza Horizon 3 or a Motorsport 7. If Horizon comes back next year then I'm expecting the game to be VERY different (e.g.: different setting) to cause more attention. Heck, maybe even calling it "Horizon 3: (insert subtitle)" instead of "Forza Horizon 3" too.

I need FH3 asap. Cant get enough of it.
 
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