KiefbladeMaster
Member
It would be dumb. The console is still selling really well, and as others have said, some devs haven't even shipped titles yet. It's still young.
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Digital Foundry - In Theory: Could Sony release PlayStation 5 in 2018?
- Thread starter Vashetti
- Start date
Darkstorne
Member
I feel like this is why we have the PS4 Pro and Scorpio.
I agree with others who suggest we need another die shrink first, and DF's comments about even an 8TF GPU still not being even double the power of a Pro... I think we can wait until 2019 at the earliest, preferably 2020 for me, and the Pro/Scorpio are here specifically to provide that 4k image quality boost for those who want an upgrade to keep them going until then.
And besides, with the PS4 and Xbox One consoles continuing to sell as strongly as they are today, with absolutely no sign of slow down in the near future, I don't even see the business sense in a 2018 launch. It's not like I'm looking at this purely as a consumer who wants the best bang for his buck and wants to see his console purchase remain viable for as long as possible. I'm sure Sony wants to hit that 100 million install base, or get as close as possible at the very least. And I'm also sure they don't want a situation where people are comparing their "next gen" machine to the "last gen" Scorpio and pointing out how tiny the GPU upgrade is.
dragonelite
Member
2018 seems soon it would probably provide ps4 level graphics on native 4k. I rather have them make a nice jump into 4k territory in 2020.
Sad Affleck
Member
2020, no earlier.
Acquiescence
Member
Really? I dunno, it feels to me like the PS4 has entered the full swing of things right now. It had a slow start for sure, not so much where sales and general support are concerned, but more in terms of the volume of must-have exclusives. That point of contention has been remedied and then some in the past year or so though, and the system's momentum right now feels unstoppable.
I will agree though that 2018 feels too soon to release the PS5. 2019 is the sweet spot I'd say. Wouldn't want this gen to linger on too long like the last one did.
Tarin02543
Member
instead of bit we now have flop wars.
I like it
I like it
Triggerhappytel
Member
I think late 2019 is reasonable to expect the next Xbox and Playstation consoles. Before that seems like it would be killing off this gen too soon.
Sniffynose
Member
The whole thing is stupid as fuck, developers can barely even get 1 game out in proper working order during a cycle, we have PS4 Pro which has games that don't even make use of the extra power, yet they keep flaunting systems with "moar power" yet here we are still dealing with shit that isn't even native 1080p and can't hold 30fps.
priorities and all that...
I'd rather wait until they can do proper 4k and have CPUs to back it up, otherwise I'm out, I'd just buy a new video card for the same price. I'm already done with paying for PS+ and with everything creeping closer to being a PC might as well just do so without the brand restrictions.
priorities and all that...
I'd rather wait until they can do proper 4k and have CPUs to back it up, otherwise I'm out, I'd just buy a new video card for the same price. I'm already done with paying for PS+ and with everything creeping closer to being a PC might as well just do so without the brand restrictions.
geordiemp
Member
As you say that, assuming your a core Ninty fan, do you not get annoyed by so few enemies in games and damn empty open worlds ?
Lets face it, BOTW had 3-5 spawning enemies and looked empty to me, playing MEA at the moment and devs even said they were limited to 8 Spawning enemies that had good AI due to the CPU.
This to me is why we need Next gen ; decent i7 class CPU
2019 is the right time, 6 years after ps4, 3 years after pro
Dee Dah Dave
Member
PS5 needs to be 12TF minimum. That's 6 - 7x more powerful than the PS4 and 2x more powerful than the current best hardware (scorpio). Plus CPU improvements.
That isn't happening until a node shrink and at least a few more years.
That isn't happening until a node shrink and at least a few more years.
Rock Howard
Member
Seeing what Sony has in the pipeline with God of War, Days Gone and Spider Man, I think we can wait another 2-3 years for updated hardware - and I guess that Scorpio won't disappoint either!
Paquete_PT
Member
Honestly, I would prefer to have a PS5 by 2018 than have PsPro as it was...5 year-cycle needs to come back, imo
Green Yoshi
Member
So PS4 will be the first PlayStation without its own GTA?
Spiritwalker
Member
Why on earth would they? It's selling gangbusters.
10101
Gold Member
I'm in the 2020 camp. I'd rather a bigger jump than 2018 could offer.
I can't see Sony releasing it before then, they will be milking the PS4 cow for as long as possible in a bid to get to 100m. I highly doubt they give a shit about being the "most powerful console" against Scorpio given the market share they are commanding currently. Never hurt the PS2 being less powerful than the competition (that released later), however I'm sure they would want the "most powerful" crown when PS5 does arrive.
Well I hope I'm right at least lol, would be a shame if they were reactionary and we ended up with a gimped PS5.
I can't see Sony releasing it before then, they will be milking the PS4 cow for as long as possible in a bid to get to 100m. I highly doubt they give a shit about being the "most powerful console" against Scorpio given the market share they are commanding currently. Never hurt the PS2 being less powerful than the competition (that released later), however I'm sure they would want the "most powerful" crown when PS5 does arrive.
Well I hope I'm right at least lol, would be a shame if they were reactionary and we ended up with a gimped PS5.
blastprocessor
The Amiga Brotherhood
I'd bet PS5 will be based on 7nm to get that generational leap and > 10 tflops of GPU power which should be in line with mid-range cards released in 2018/19.
Anything less wouldn't make sense.
Anything less wouldn't make sense.
BigTnaples
Todd Howard's Secret GAF Account
I think 2018 is unlikely.
I see MS sticking to "generations are over" and just releasing new hardware every few years fully backwards compatible but after avery few iterations making games that can't come out on older hardware. (Like PC or Mobile).
I think PS5 will happen in 2020 or so. Coinciding with a new internal refresh of the XB family.
I look forward to seeing how both approaches work out.
I don't think any path is more flawed than the other. So long as Sony also keeps BC rock solid from here on out.
I see MS sticking to "generations are over" and just releasing new hardware every few years fully backwards compatible but after avery few iterations making games that can't come out on older hardware. (Like PC or Mobile).
I think PS5 will happen in 2020 or so. Coinciding with a new internal refresh of the XB family.
I look forward to seeing how both approaches work out.
I don't think any path is more flawed than the other. So long as Sony also keeps BC rock solid from here on out.
If next gen is all about 4K (which I think is a big mistake) than I would want it to eventually release at 2022 even, we need a big upgrade so we can actually see much better visuals/CPU related stuff regardless of the resolution.
If next gen would aim for 1080P or dynamic 4K than yea 2020 is fine.
If next gen would aim for 1080P or dynamic 4K than yea 2020 is fine.
Tyraniboah
Member
No. Absolutely not. Dev time on a single game takes 4-5 years these days. If Sony were to want even a halfway decent launch lineup then dev kits need to be out there now for a late 2018 launch, and if that was the case then it wouldn't be much of a power leap. You also don't kill momentum for hardware that's well on its way to 100 million. I'd bet we don't see PlayStation 5 until 2020. 2019 at the earliest, but I don't think it drops then either.
Panajev2001a
GAF's Pleasant Genius
The Pro was meant to polish the PS4 experience, but its hardware could do more and with a new generation you would see that inaction as people can and are incentivised to make exclusive software... and you would still get something almost 2x as powerful GPU wise as PS4 Pro, but even that would not take into account new features on the GPU and the fact it is very likely Sony would look at a Ryzen based APU and more much faster RAM.
Panajev2001a
GAF's Pleasant Genius
Waiting too long would allow too much time for MS to gain the spotlight while consumers get hungrier and hungrier for new HW... 2020 feels way too late for PS5.
I'm not really a core anything fan, because I'm 30+. Used to be, maybe, but Nintendo was my secondary console for the last decade. That said I do consider portability right now a much bigger value addition than more teraflops.
No I didn't think Zelda was sparse. Five enemies at a time is a good amount I think. More than that and it just gets laborious and unfun.
4K will ruin next gen anyway. It'll be the smallest graphic gap ever.
This is way worse than that cause that's the power needed to achieve PS4 graphics in native 4K. So that means actually no boost at all except for resolution.
And if you doubt about that, think about how PS4Pro is more than 2 PS4 yet cannot output PS4 games in native 4K.
If you need 4x the power to output the same graphics in native 4K, that also means, whatever power gap will be in the next gen, will be divided by 4.
Which Sony will do to sell tvs, but it will be a catastrophe in term of diminishing return obviously. People notice more realistic graphics way more than better resolution.
This is way worse than that cause that's the power needed to achieve PS4 graphics in native 4K. So that means actually no boost at all except for resolution.
And if you doubt about that, think about how PS4Pro is more than 2 PS4 yet cannot output PS4 games in native 4K.
If you need 4x the power to output the same graphics in native 4K, that also means, whatever power gap will be in the next gen, will be divided by 4.
Which Sony will do to sell tvs, but it will be a catastrophe in term of diminishing return obviously. People notice more realistic graphics way more than better resolution.
With modern development cycles for games? No thank you.
A big AAA game can easily take 4 to 6 years to develop, more if a particularly ambitious one.
While I agree, I cant see a PS5 until at least 2019.
Some ppl have to realize when a new gen starts last gen consoles dont just disappear. They can keep selling.
Look at the PS3. Last console standing from last gen.
Sony could start a new gen and the PS4 could still sell well.
General Lee
Member
Theoretically yes, but it makes little sense in terms of tech or business. Next gen will come once 10/7nm is out and AMD has the parts necessary, so 2019 or 2020 holiday most likely. The only big question mark is how expensive next gen will be, since now there's a push to have something considerably faster than Scorpio, which in itself will be priced high.
This.
They better wait until enough power to see a real gap.
It's why some of us smiled when some people expected Scorpio to be a "new gen" when the reason of its existence is aiming for 4K on games built for old tech.
MontyBrown
Banned
Next year would be perfect. Fuck long console gens.
Laplasakos
Member
Probably. Even if R* manages to ship RDR2 this year, it is unlikely that GTAVI will be ready by next year. PS5 is looking that it will be released Fall 2019 at least in USA. Still GTAV released two months before PS4 and it was PS3/360 exclusive despite many predicting a next gen port at launch so i guess R* can do the same again.
geordiemp
Member
Your still a young un lol...
I have zero interest on playing on a small screen, 55 inch or bust, and I want more enemies, denser worlds, smarter enemies and more frantic combat.
I dont do puzzle games, and wandering around exploring as I get bored very easily, Ninja Gaiden action all the way with gun or sword or both. Also I was being generous with 5 lol.
So I cant wait for more power next gen, PC's can do 60 FPS but are still limited in design by this generations pathetic tablet CPU's.
AI and enemy numbers (Mousou chaff does not cut it) has been stale for a number of years in many genres. There has been a few games that can throw interesting numbers at you, like Mordor type games and Destiny at times, but we need allot more.
Playing Dragon age, narrative says there is a massive battle over the hill, you go there and there is the usual 6 spwans...hardly massive...
PLASTICA-MAN
Member
Is this serious? 2018 again? Then why did they release the PS4 PRO? This would be completely obsolete to release it by then. We have GPUs like NVidia Volta with almost 1 TB/s brandwidth and and many TFlops HBM2 memory. PS5 needs such exponential jump and at least 16 GB VRAM if not 32 in HBM3/HBM+
End of 2020 or even 2021 is more logical and less absurd.
Don't worry we still have upcoming great looking games even on PS4 like TLOU2 and Death Stranding that will be released in some years which will give the PS4 more time of glory to survive and the PS4 PRO is here to make then even look better.
End of 2020 or even 2021 is more logical and less absurd.
Don't worry we still have upcoming great looking games even on PS4 like TLOU2 and Death Stranding that will be released in some years which will give the PS4 more time of glory to survive and the PS4 PRO is here to make then even look better.
yurinka
Member
There is a good list of PS4 Pro native 4K games (some even at 60fps), and a related gaf thread that seems you missed.
Releasing PS5 in 2020 would be likely to achive a x10 or x12 jump in teraflops compared to base PS4 with decent cost to sell at profit a $400 console. Which means that most PS5 AAA games would be native 4K, just like most PS4 AAA games are native 1080p.
Of course PS5 games will be native 4K, the thing is at what graphical cost?
PS4/XBO aimed for double previous gen resolution, so they put resources on graphics after that.
Now they are aiming for 4x resolution.
RoadHazard
Gold Member
Lol no. That's ridiculous. 2019 at the earliest. More likely 2020.
sems4arsenal
Member
They need to wait till 4K TVs become cheaper as well and for VR tech to make a leap.
Bustanen
Member
Yeah Nvidia already killed Vega before it even launches. AMD has nothing to show for next year.
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