kingkaiser
Member
In that case I really hope that the SPD will have enough backbone to stay away from a great coalition and thus force Merkel to build a minority government, but whom am I kidding, of course they will give in just to stay in power.
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German Federal Elections 2017 |OT| Electing the new leader of the free world
- Thread starter Xando
- Start date
In that case I really hope that the SPD will have enough backbone to stay away from a great coalition and thus force Merkel to build a minority government, but whom am I kidding, of course they will give in just to stay in power.
Bitch Pudding
Member
Imagine SPD below 20%, hard to imagine they'd agree on another GroKo in that scenario.
What happened that the AfD is gaining again? I can't remember anything or think people the Weidel's letter and her black labour cleaning lady are good?
Media started to give them more spotlight again.
When Schulz was hype he got all the media attention but now everyone is back to giving AFD headlines for their dumb shit
I went to mail my election letter today but it would cost me 60 Dollars to have it in before the due time. Now I feel bad.
Edit:
Why is this crap happening? Haven't they learned anything from the US Election?
Edit:
Why is this crap happening? Haven't they learned anything from the US Election?
As if the people working at BILD or RTL actually care about anything other than making money.
If some AFD fuck says minority politicians should be disposed to turkey they only care since it generates views
Seems more like: Everyone's had it with the CDU being in power so long but because of Merkel they're not losing votes.
Green Yoshi
Member
This would be suicide for the Greens if they are the weakest party in the coalition. If they can surpass the FDP, things will be different though.
I think Gabriel wants to remain secretary of state and other cabinet ministres don't want to lose their jobs either.
Frankfurter
Member
Officially 7 days away.
My prediction:
CDU 39%
SPD 21%
Linke 9%
Greens 8%
AFD 9%
FDP 9%
Sonstige 5%
Gonna have a CDU/Green/FDP goverment
Given the recent trend, I fear AfD is gonna end up with 10-11% :/
Why would it not?
Muffin1611
Banned
I'm getting FDP ads on GAF all the time, this is nothing new
idk, aren't electoral ads on TV tightly regulated? As said, I was mostly surprised to see one as I haven't before on YouTube.
super.modulaire
Neo Member
Some predictions from sites with a solid track record.
https://www.signalundrauschen.de
https://www.pollyvote.de/prognose-bundestagswahl-2017
https://www.signalundrauschen.de
https://www.pollyvote.de/prognose-bundestagswahl-2017
Dagobert Duck
Member
Officially 7 days away.
My prediction:
CDU 39%
SPD 21%
Linke 9%
Greens 8%
AFD 9%
FDP 9%
Sonstige 5%
Gonna have a CDU/Green/FDP goverment
Seeing AfD in there is utterly disgusting...and then even a higher percentage than Greens and FDP...
I kinda hope the SPD will get a result < 20%. That would definitely make them go into opposition and leave the way open for Jamaica.
That way the SPD can reflect on their identity and get a better result the next time. Simply demanding "more social equity" just isn't convincing enough when a majority of the country is doing reasonably well. Given Schulz' latest moronic polemic of "the working man without higher education against those at the top", the SPD still seems to be stuck with an outdated working-class vs bourgeoisie mindset.
Moreover, that way the AfD would not be the leader of the opposition.
That way the SPD can reflect on their identity and get a better result the next time. Simply demanding "more social equity" just isn't convincing enough when a majority of the country is doing reasonably well. Given Schulz' latest moronic polemic of "the working man without higher education against those at the top", the SPD still seems to be stuck with an outdated working-class vs bourgeoisie mindset.
Moreover, that way the AfD would not be the leader of the opposition.
Bitch Pudding
Member
Opposition leader is the "Meister der Herzen" of the parliament anyhow...
That said, yes, I hope SPD gets a time-out. They really need it.
Yeah, but it's customary for the opposition's leader to get perks like being the first one allowed to respond to speeches by the government parties. Not really keen on seeing Gauleiter be the first one to criticize the government.
At this point I'd rather get a CDU/CSU/FDP coalition than another Grand one, just for the SPD to be able to actually compete against the Union in 4 years. Another 4 years as toothless junior partner will only continue to decimate the SPD's influence and enforce their status as CDU light. That's not what they are supposed to be. At all.
They would also be able to be a good opposition leader. Don't even want to think about AfD getting that part. But, yeah, Grand Coalition and AfD as Oppo leader is almost guaranteed. Ugh.
They would also be able to be a good opposition leader. Don't even want to think about AfD getting that part. But, yeah, Grand Coalition and AfD as Oppo leader is almost guaranteed. Ugh.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Or a minority CDU/CSU/FDP?
Frankfurter
Member
Afaik there has never been a minority coalition in the Bundestag. It'd also be very difficult to handle. SPD (or AfD) after all would need to provide the necessary votes, which could only harm them
I think as long as the SPD receives enough votes to make CDU/SPD happen again, we'll inevitably end up with another Grand Coalition. Only way this won't happen is if CDU and FDP will surprisingly receive enough votes to form a coalition without needing the Greens.
But Jamaica? I just don't see it happening. They'll have coalition talks, they will try in earnest to work something out, but in the end I can't see it not imploding. CDU/Greens would be difficult enough, but CDU/FDP/Greens will be too much for the Greens to bear. When it comes down to it, they'll be too afraid to lose their identity in a conservative government.
If Jamaica fails, SPD won't have any good or even decent options left. Continuing the coalition will make sure to prolong their misery, but no one wants re-elections, either. SPD would be too afraid that the people blame them for not agreeing to a coalition, so that they receive even less votes next time around and literally everyone would be too afraid that the established parties failing to form a coalition would only help the AfD.
hard to tell. Von der Leyen, de Maizière, Spahn and apparently Guttenberg is coming back.
Green Yoshi
Member
Expect some CDU voters everybody will understand that the SPD don't want to prolong the Grand Coalition. Perhaps they will attract even new voters that didn't vote for the SPD the first time in order to avoid a Grand Coalition.
While a Jamaican coalition seems very unlikely didn't Cem Özdemir say in the last Bericht aus Berlin that he doesn't rule it out or at least? Or at least didn't himself from the idea.
A return to "Kinder statt Inder".
Orniletter
Banned
Bitch Pudding
Member
De Maizière is the most obvious choice. He'd also cater the conservative voters, hence AfD would have a hard time fighting him instead of Merkel. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer is basically a younger Angela Merkel, by 2021 she'd have more than enough experience. She's the most obvious choice if the CDU decides to (also) attract (some) centrist-left voters.
Schäuble, who got 75 today, is too old; von der Leyen has to redeem herself first, and CSU could build up zu Guttenberg again by appointing him to Berlin as state minister.
All the latest catfighting between FDP and Greens is tactical. They are positioning themselves in opposition to each other to avoid alienating their base (many Greens hate die FDP, and FDP members hate the Greens), as well as to stress their demands for upcoming coalition talks. I don't believe they really oppose a Jamaica coalition.
Everything else will depend on the success of the talks, but I do think that finding a common ground is possible.
Julia Klöckner. Sad as that may be.
Patrick Bateman
Member
Yet he still wants to be minister of finance after the elections.
Bitch Pudding
Member
After the 2017 election, yes, but he'll be 79 by 2021 and 84 after the end of that term if Germany switches to a 5 year term.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
The UK hadn't done a coalition in the postwar era. Different times need different solutions.
Green Yoshi
Member
He should have run in 1998. Now it's too late.
super.modulaire
Neo Member
Betting site BWIN is offering a variety of Bundestagswahl-bets.
https://sports.bwin.com/de/sports/61/35771/wetten/bundestagswahl
https://sports.bwin.com/de/sports/61/35771/wetten/bundestagswahl
Frankfurter
Member
For sure. But I don't we'll see a minority government with Union/SPD or Union/FDP/Greens being possible. Also May atleast has a majority in the parliament, although a difficult one.
CDU/FDP minority coalition wouldn't get a single vote from Die Linke and wouldn't get many votes from the Greens. They'd either need to govern with the help of the AfD, which would be terrible for all involved, or with the help of the SPD, which would be terrible for the SPD.
The whole slow and stable Merkel thing would fall apart, especially with the Federal Council involved (only a single state government is CDU+FDP at this point + Bavaria with only CSU).
Patrick Bateman
Member
Wait, is this really planned?
Dagobert Duck
Member
I think its not final, but they want to push for it
Imp the Dimp
Member
Intended to vote SPD but I think I'll go with the Green party hoping they beat FDP and end up with more leverage in the upcoming coalition talks.
Just don't waste your Erststimme on them.
Here's another fun help for choosing:
http://science-o-mat.de
Answer a couple of science questions and they will tell you which party reflects your stances best. Similar to Wahl-O-Mat, but sciency.
German alert, though.
http://science-o-mat.de
Answer a couple of science questions and they will tell you which party reflects your stances best. Similar to Wahl-O-Mat, but sciency.
German alert, though.
Surprised by this, lol.
Thought that being for stem cell research would kick CDU/CSU down the ranking.
BRB, voting for Partei der Humanisten.
Patrick Bateman
Member
Surprised by this, lol.
Thought that being for stem cell research would kick CDU/CSU down the ranking.
BRB, voting for Partei der Humanisten.
Surprisingly I had a similar result. Green is way back, which disappoints me.
Maedre
Banned
The greens are not really green anymore. Thats my main problem with them :/