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MLB 2017 Regular Season OT - 108 years in the making

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Malo

Banned
Wasn't Jim Hendry the genius who wrecked the Cubs and gave Alfonso Soriano that amazing contract?
Yes he is and I don't care about Hendry. The real loss would be Denbo. He's VP of player development and has been instrumental in turning the Yankees' farm system around.
 

BFIB

Member
Bernie summing up perfectly why Matheny is a horrible fit for manager:

First of all, no one of sound mind believed Mike Matheny should have removed Michael Wacha from the game after six innings. No one.

Wacha was pitching great. One of his best starts of the season. He was keeping the Cubs’ lineup on lockdown. By all means, let him eat. You don’t yank him after six shutout innings (eight Ks) and with a low pitch count of 60.

But …

Given Wacha’s glaring pattern of often imploding when he goes through a lineup for the third time in a game, Matheny should have had someone in the bullpen getting loose. Just in case. Just to protect the Cards’ 1-0 lead if Wacha became hittable and vulnerable. Just as a way of showing the necessary urgency given the Cardinals’ dire situation of needing this game to avoid losing more ground to Colorado in the wild-card race. When you have a pitcher who has been doing this for a while — suddenly losing his stuff with the third turn of the opposing lineup — you have to be on alert, and quick to intervene.

Of course by now you know what happened.

Matheny waited too long. He stood and watched and did nothing as the Cubs began pelting Wacha’s pitches, turning a 1-0 deficit into a four-run lead. In a critical game that the Cardinals could not afford to lose, managerial neglect resulted in a Titanic inning.

When the smoke cleared, the Cardinals had lost 5-1 Wednesday in one of the most depressing evenings of baseball we’ve seen in St. Louis for a very long time. Not only were the hated-rival Cubs dancing on the the Cardinals’ field as they celebrated the clinching of their second consecutive NL Central title … the Cubs were all but dancing on the Cards’ graves.

The Cardinals fell into a deep hole, and climbing out is all but impossible.

With four games remaining on the schedule, the Cardinals trail Colorado by 3.5 games. The Rockies will close the season with three at home against the LA Dodgers, who will likely be resting players and setting their rotation to get ready for the start of the postseason.

Matheny said he didn’t stay in the dugout to watch the Cubs celebrate.

You almost wonder if Matheny was actually watching Wacha melt down.

Judging by his failure to take action to keep this must-win game close, to preserve at least a shot of winning, Matheny apparently saw something that no else could detect.

Or maybe the manager was just freezing under pressure, which we’ve seen many times before. Matheny is six seasons into a Big-Boy job — SIX — and he’s still incapable of managing a bullpen. He continues to screw up, time and time again. He continues to have too many instances of standing still as trouble grows and intensifies and swallows his team. Matheny is the worst I’ve ever seen at this crucial part of managing.

Before the start of the 7th, no one was stretching in the Cards’ bullpen.

Anthony Rizzo led off with a single … nothing moving in the bullpen.

Ben Zobrist singled. Two runners on. No outs … not a creature was stirring in the bullpen.

As Addison Russell stepped in to drive a three-run homer into the Cardinals’ heart … someone was stretching in the Cardinals’ bullpen. Stretching, not warming up fast. Not warming at all. And by now the Cubs had ripped this game open by ambushing the home team for a 3-1 lead.

Javier Baez doubled … Matheny watched.

Jason Heyward doubled; 4-1 Cubs … Matheny watched.

Rene Rivera walked … finally, Matheny walked to the mound to make a pitching change. And Matthew Bowman was popped for a double by Tommy La Stella — the run charged to Wacha — and the Cubs were safe and in the clear with a four-run lead.

Even by Matheny’s low standards, this was astonishing.

Again: no one is saying he should have yanked Wacha after six innings.

But given Wacha’s clear history, the manager had to take precautions, and have a reliever on standby, getting busy, as the seventh inning began. Just in case. Just in the event of an instant collapse. With the expanded September roster, the Cardinals have so many relievers in the bullpen can’t keep count. I just know that one reliever should have been told to get up and throw, and be ready to mobilize if the inning began to slip away from Wacha … with the season slipping away from the Cardinals.

Wacha’s pattern is no secret. You don’t need access to proprietary data to know about it. It’s an easy statistic to find on a baseball-stat site. Fans know the Wacha pattern. Media know the Wacha pattern. Surely, the Cardinals’ analytics department have made Matheny aware of Wacha’s pattern.

I’ll give you the short version…

This season, Wacha’s third time through line lineup:

155 batters faced

.329 batting average

.396 onbase percentage

.504 slugging percentage

.900 OPS

5.66 ERA

2016, Wacha’s third time through the lineup:

147 batters faced .286 average

.354 onbase percentage

.545 slugging percentage

6.12 ERA

Just to short-hand the rest of this …

Here are Wacha’s earned-run averages (third time through) from 2013-2015:

2013, 3.38 ERA

2014, 5.04 ERA

2015, 4.83

Wacha’s numbers are much better when goes through a lineup the first time. They get worse the second time through. And the third time through … boom.

Why doesn’t Matheny see this, understand this, and manage Wacha starts accordingly? Abundant patience can work in May or July. But patience must be discarded when it’s Sept. 27, and your team is up against the odds, battling to survive, and can’t take another hit that will all but snuff the one flickering chance at a playoff this.

I don’t understand why Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. is OK with this.

As an owner, DeWitt was way ahead of his time in taking the Cardinals into the future. Back in the early aughts he hired Jeff Luhnow, set up an analytics department, and set up his baseball people with a flow of advanced statistical information that could be put to good use to give the Cards a tactical advantage. DeWitt’s forward-thinking vision was brilliant and played a substantial role in sustaining his team’s high level of success.

But DeWitt — who is so smart, so advanced in his thinking — for some reason doesn’t believe there is disconnect here … he’s hired an analytics department … they’re great at what they do … they can put excellent information in Matheny’s hands … they work hard to give him an advantage.

And the manager — repeatedly — ignores this stuff too often.

The numbers on Wacha’s predictable fade in the third time through a lineup are well known.

The manager ignores that too … and with his team drowning.

The manager is like the baseball equivalent of a science denier.

If DeWitt wants to have Matheny as his manager for many years to come, that’s his call.

But if I may offer the chairman some advice: save some money, and pull the plug on the analytics. If you want a manager who runs games as if it’s 1966, then get rid of the stat geeks.
 

BFIB

Member
Not to mention hitting Rizzo in the 1st was absurd. He really believes that the Cubs threw at Pham?
Hey, if I'm Maddon, who fucking owns Matheny at managing, I'm telling my starter to "throw inside" because Matheny automatically will just assume everyone is out to get him and his players, and demand retaliation. Matheny is then shook the whole game. He's a mental midget when it comes to in game decisions. Six years of this crap, he needs to go.
 

gamz

Member
Hey, if I'm Maddon, who fucking owns Matheny at managing, I'm telling my starter to "throw inside" because Matheny automatically will just assume everyone is out to get him and his players, and demand retaliation. Matheny is then shook the whole game. He's a mental midget when it comes to in game decisions. Six years of this crap, he needs to go.

Good point. So what's the early word is he gone or stays?
 
DeWitt has publicly endorsed him repeatedly and he's still got two years left on a three year extension. Until attendance drops below 3mil a year nothing is going to change.

But this early on so this could change

I feel like you can make a compromise between being a stat nerd and being a clubhouse leader and still make the playoffs but I maybe talking out of my ass, so who knows
 
But this early on so this could change

I feel like you can make a compromise between being a stat nerd and being a clubhouse leader and still make the playoffs but I maybe talking out of my ass, so who knows

If Matheny hasn't shown he's completely out of his depth at this point, I don't know what more he can personally do that will change DeWitt's mind. Any change is going to have to come from external influences - attendance, sub .500 season(s), player mutiny, etc.

I'd be happy to be wrong though.
 
If Matheny hasn't shown he's completely out of his depth at this point, I don't know what more he can personally do that will change DeWitt's mind. Any change is going to have to come from external influences - attendance, sub .500 season(s), player mutiny, etc.

I'd be happy to be wrong though.

Player mutiny is more likely then any other of those factors

Lead by Yadi I hope
 

BFIB

Member
Malo, you ready for some evil alliance in the playoffs? Gonna hop aboard that Judge train I keep hearing about.
 
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