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[garrickk]

Do you have any info on the yield for the units Sony is talking about?

I recall reading initial diode yields were in the 10% - 20% range. If they are at 50% now, that would be a 250% - 500% increase.

Not on hand. I don't know if I've ever seen any hard numbers. But an improvement of more than 100% would be an enormous breakthrough and it would be in all the trade publications. I can't believe your numbers without evidence, but I suppose it's possible.

Still, even if the yield was 15%, the per-unit production of cost of a tiny diode couldn't be more than $30. That's crazy! The future costs listed here from Sony are still OEM prices, and they are certainly predicting to produce them for 30-40% less, if not more.

 

[garrickk]

Oooh oh! A SemiC related thread.

I'm still wondering why the fabs are still sticking to GaN to make blue laser diodes. Seriously, they've gotten doped CVD diamond to emit at UV/blue spectrum ages ago and it's not that hard to make. And it's native bandgap is already in the UV range.

They've even gotten it grown epitaxially over sapphire as well, so I don't see what the problem is in making some strained growths over Si or some other substrate.

Yeah, we've discussed this before (a few months back - I believe I was saying at the time that the iSupply costs listed for the Blu-ray drive were market costs, not production costs and were freakishly too high). What goes around.

Anyway, from what I read, there were issues initially with the wafers bowing during production and reducing yields. That might have been the reason for initially working with a hard crystalline substrate.

 

[Manmademan]

Their first price drop will go to $499 at the least. don't be surprised to see $549 first...

you forgot sony already HAD a $499 unit, and still does in Japan. (that unit is $425 US IIRC.)
With component costs dropping in the past year significantly, there's NO reason why we can't see a variation of that unit re-introduced.

I've said this before in other threads, several times, but Sony re-introducing an internally redesigned 20 gig unit (or thereabouts...it might be a 40 if they bump the 60 gig to 80 or so) to the US and EU at the original cost of the Japanese 20 gig ($425) is pretty damn likely.

There's a reason those things dropped out of production overnight, and I'm willing to bet it was because software emulation ramped up quicker than expected and the cost of blu-ray components took a nose dive.

Remember, Sony is fighting a battle on 2 fronts. they need to catch up with Nintendo and Microsoft, AND put a nail in the coffin of HD-DVD. introducing a $400 Ps3, even a basic one will absolutely murder HD-DVD as well as slow down 360 sales, even if microsoft drops the price another $50 or so.

the Wii will continue to sell like hotcakes, regardless tho

 

[Core407]

Did you watch the GDC conference?? yeah....

I doubt we will ever see a repeat of the E3 conference from sony

It's hard to impress with no real games, but I think Sony learned their lesson and won't do it again.

The new E3 should be the big breakout for Sony with the PS3. All of those second generation titles will finally come to fruition and the price tag will be validated.

 

[bishoptl]

a new weak point for Massive damage in the evolution of the giant enemy crab?

Ugh.

 

[frAntic_Frog]

introducing a $400 Ps3, even a basic one will absolutely murder HD-DVD as well as slow down 360 sales, even if microsoft drops the price another $50 or so.

i think sony will likely reintroduce the 20gb version at $400 sometime this year, while dropping the 60gb to $500.

 

[MobiusPigeon]

I've said it before but I'll say it again:

$399 PS3 + GTA IV November 2007.

$199-$249 360 core+GTA IV in 2007 :lol

 

[DCharlie]

If sony are truly happy with the way things are going sales wise , then the cut in component part takes them closer to closing the break even point which is good news for their finances - so i'm not sure i'd expect a price cut soon.

I wonder if they might try and throw a value bundle out there though? Maybe something crazy like PSP+PS3 power pack ?

 

[speculawyer]

?

 

[acabado]

I think that PS3 will have the biggest percentual price drop during it's life. Sony just announced a BD player for 599U$ wich is smaller and better than the actual one. The HDD is a normal notebook one,so is constantly dropping price.Sony make almost all components of PS3,like RAM memory and others.So I think that a price of 449U$ is possible.

 

[Manmademan]

$199-$249 360 core+GTA IV in 2007 :lol

Price isn't the barrier for 360 uptake. Microsoft has had a $299 core on the market since launch, and no one really seems to want it.

 

[garrickk]

Remember, Sony is fighting a battle on 2 fronts. they need to catch up with Nintendo and Microsoft, AND put a nail in the coffin of HD-DVD. introducing a $400 Ps3, even a basic one will absolutely murder HD-DVD as well as slow down 360 sales, even if microsoft drops the price another $50 or so.

I believe there will be a $300 HD-DVD player out this summer in the US. And, is the $425 PS3 selling well in Japan?

If Sony put out a $400 PS3 in the US soon, that may help them with total sales overall, but at that price-point, don't you think Microsoft will respond with a price cut? Microsoft will drop prices to maintain a cost superiority with Sony (of comparable units). Then, the price cut probably won't help Sony win a sales race in NA with MS, and the cheap HD-DVD players coming into Walmart this summer will undercut HD movie buyers. I'm really worried for Sony. Home and LBP better be hits.

 

[Kafel]

So from $100 -> $7.59 in less than 2 months from now?

Since there are people to believe it ...


Well, let's all wait for the price drop at the end of the year then.

 

[Manmademan]

If sony are truly happy with the way things are going sales wise , then the cut in component part takes them closer to closing the break even point which is good news for their finances - so i'm not sure i'd expect a price cut soon.

I wonder if they might try and throw a value bundle out there though? Maybe something crazy like PSP+PS3 power pack ?

Sony obviously isn't happy with the sales of the PS3 thus far. read between the spin...a lot of the bravado that was typical of the PS2 era seems to have evaporated.

as for profit, the lions share of the profit on the ps3 comes not from margins on the unit itself, (even on the PS2 and PSP they're rumored to be pretty slim) but from the sale of additional games, blu-ray discs, and accessories. In this case moving units takes precedence over pretty much everything else.

 

[speculawyer]

Price isn't the barrier for 360 uptake. Microsoft has had a $299 core on the market since launch, and no one really seems to want it.

The "$299" core is an illusion. It can't display HD resolution (without buying another cable $39.99), it can't go online (without buying a hard drive and an ethernet cord), but most importantly it can't save a game (without a mem card as a mininum $29.99).

Most rational consumers that look at the Core reject it immediately. Over 90% (probably even higher) of xbox 360 sales are for the $399 Pro. So the effective price is $399.

(On the other hand, the $499 PS3 was a full-fledged PS3. You could play any PS3 game on-line out of the box. Yeah, you had to buy an HDMI cable, but that was true of the $599 SKU too.)

 

[Draft]

The PS3 is like a coiled cobra, waiting for the perfect moment to strike.

Waiting.

Waiting.

Waiting.

 

[Manmademan]

I believe there will be a $300 HD-DVD player out this summer in the US. And, is the $425 PS3 selling well in Japan?

If Sony put out a $400 PS3 in the US soon, that may help them with total sales overall, but at that price-point, don't you think Microsoft will respond with a price cut? Microsoft will drop prices to maintain a cost superiority with Sony (of comparable units). Then, the price cut probably won't help Sony win a sales race in NA with MS, and the cheap HD-DVD players coming into Walmart this summer will undercut HD movie buyers. I'm really worried for Sony. Home and LBP better be hits.

the $425 Ps3 isn't selling well in Japan- a big part of that involves software. Most of the games that really cause a stir over there haven't shown up yet. Japan also seems to be rapidly heading towards being handheld-land. Media-Create charts have been overwhelmingly DS for quite some time and I don't see that changing anytime soon.

The point of me bringing that unit up in the first place is to demonstrate that Sony was perfectly capable of producing and bringing a $425 unit to market months ago at launch when component costs were substantially higher.

costs have dropped considerably, and the #1 complaint pretty much everywhere is that the unit is simply too expensive. There's no reason why they couldn't introduce a new unit at this pricepoint if they needed to, and they CLEARLY do by now.

Microsoft can respond with a price cut also, but price isn't the barrier for the 360 that it is for the Ps3. anyone who REALLY wants to have a 360 can have one for $299. That's only $50 more than a Wii.
In contrast, if you want a Ps3, it's $600. the barrier of entry is nearly double. dropping the cost of entry to $400 or so shrinks that gap by a LOT.

Cheap HD-DVD players won't help a thing. The casual consumer still has no reason to upgrade to those units over DVD, and HD-DVD is critically short on content.

Even at $600, the PS3 is slaughtering the sales of stand alone drives, and dropping the price of the unit $200 will only make it worse.

This holiday season will see both Pirates of the Caribbean 3 AND Spider Man 3 exclusive to Blu-Ray...HD-DVD is done after this year.

 

[Ryu1999]

you forgot sony already HAD a $499 unit, and still does in Japan. (that unit is $425 US IIRC.)
With component costs dropping in the past year significantly, there's NO reason why we can't see a variation of that unit re-introduced.

The 20gig only exists in theory in Japan. A few J-Gaffers have already reported that trying to find one of those is like looking for a Wii

 

[speculawyer]

Remember, Sony is fighting a battle on 2 fronts. they need to catch up with Nintendo and Microsoft, AND put a nail in the coffin of HD-DVD.

I think Sony may have won that war already. I think Blu-Ray wins.

introducing a $400 Ps3, even a basic one will absolutely murder HD-DVD as well as slow down 360 sales, even if microsoft drops the price another $50 or so.

But who knows how much MSFT can drop the 360 price? Perhaps they would drop it $100? I think MSFT doesn't care too much about the Wii competition . . . they are content with the hardcore gamers that want HD. But since they are in such a good position against the PS3, I think they'll respond very aggressively to any PS3 price drop. That is their real competition and they are by no means dead.

 

[speculawyer]

nm

 

[Manmademan]

The "$299" core is an illusion. It can't display HD resolution (without buying another cable $39.99), it can't go online (without buying a hard drive and an ethernet cord), but most importantly it can't save a game (without a mem card as a mininum $29.99).

Most rational consumers that look at the Core reject it immediately. Over 90% (probably even higher) of xbox 360 sales are for the $399 Pro. So the effective price is $399.

(On the other hand, the $499 PS3 was a full-fledged PS3. You could play any PS3 game on-line out of the box. Yeah, you had to buy an HDMI cable, but that was true of the $599 SKU too.)

Uh, couple flaws in your argument. The price conscious buyers in the market for the core are a lot less likely to own HDTVs. why would they care if it displays HD or not, if they just want to get in a couple rounds of gears on the ten year old SDTV in the dorm room?

likewise, holiday shoppers and birthday shoppers don't know and don't care about these things. they'll look for the Xbox with the cheapest price tag and grab it.

Online is still niche. not all gamers care about online. and of those that DO- you don't need the hard drive to go online. and who the hell doesn't have an ethernet cord? the cable and DSL companies hand them out for FREE.

yes you need a memory card, but this has been the case for the PS1, the Saturn, the Dreamcast, the Gamecube, and the PS2. consumers are used to those and aren't really shocked when they need one.

and don't BS. there are no reliable figures on how many are buying the core vs. the premium- microsoft won't release them, just as they won't tell anyone how many Live users are gold vs. Silver. The minute they do, those figures will be all over GAF. believe me.

That being said, the $499 PS3 is CERTAINLY a better value, but it can't be had. even before it was officially discontinued, those things were impossible to find. Now that they're officially dead, the ps3 is $600. no ifs, ands, or buts. you want a 360, it's $299 plus a $30 memory card, and thats the bottom line.

 

[Manmademan]

nm

I think space is part of it, though even more so is that mass transit and commuter culture is a LOT bigger in japan than it is here. Have you seen some of the cellphones over there? they're unbelievable. some even are coming with motion sensitivity, like the Wii.

Americans spend more of their time driving, and less on trains. I love my PSP but have a tough time finding time in the day to play it when I'm out of the house.

The DS (and PSP) are rapidly hitting that plateau where the graphics are "good enough" to play a quick puzzle game, RPG, or whatever to the average gamer- I wouldnt be surprised to see consoles sell a lot less over there this time around.

edit: I see you removed the part I quoted, but I'll leave this in anyway

 

[AdmiralViscen]

Thats interesting

so there are potentially $100 savings in th edrive. That coupled with the 65nm chip, sony may be able to drop the price $100 and still see profit.

Profit? No. Price drop to save their ass, yes.


edit: lmfao @ $400 by year's end.

 

[speculawyer]

Uh, couple flaws in your argument. The price conscious buyers in the market for the core are a lot less likely to own HDTVs. why would they care if it displays HD or not, if they just want to get in a couple rounds of gears on the ten year old SDTV in the dorm room? .

Good point . . . but it doesn't always hold. Many families will own an HDTV already (for TV viewing, DVDs, etc.) but they do become more price conscious when buying a videogame system because 'that is just a toy for junior'.

likewise, holiday shoppers and birthday shoppers don't know and don't care about these things. they'll look for the Xbox with the cheapest price tag and grab it. .

Well, that pre-teen or teen is usually pretty good about explain EXACTLY which one they want (and which one they don't want).

Online is still niche. not all gamers care about online. and of those that DO-

Perrin? is that you? :lol
60% of 360s are online for at least silver service. I wish I had the gold number. (You are right about not need a hdd though . . . it is needed for BC)

yes you need a memory card, but this has been the case for the PS1, the Saturn, the Dreamcast, the Gamecube, and the PS2. consumers are used to those and aren't really shocked when they need one.

I didn't say it was anything new . . . I'm just pointing out that it raises the price above the $299 price point.

and don't BS. there are no reliable figures on how many are buying the core vs. the premium- microsoft won't release them,

The core v. premium split is in the NPD numbers. And it is extremely tilted toward the Pro. Ask SonyCowboy.

you want a 360, it's $299 plus a $30 memory card, and thats the bottom line.

C'mon now! It is not like I'm the one that coined the term 'tard pack. The system you describe cannot do HD (no HD cable), cannot do BC (no hdd), cannot store more than a tiny few XBLA games (64mb card), has a wired controller, runs like crap in many games because it cannot do caching on a hdd, and cannot do voice chat (no headset).

 

[Mojovonio]

As a side note, i'm not 100% sure MS would drop the price if Sony did.

It would still be 100$ more than the 360, and MS seems very keen on making a proft, even if it means sacrificing their place in the final count.

 

[HokieJoe]

Do you have any info on the yield for the units Sony is talking about?

I recall reading initial diode yields were in the 10% - 20% range. If they are at 50% now, that would be a 250% - 500% increase.

IIRC, Nichia's yields were in the 30% range ~1 year ago, so I wouldn't be surprised if Sony's were similar at the time.

On a broader note, this is good news for Sony but I don't think it's revolutionary news. It falls more in line with kaizen, or incremental improvements. A % here, a % there, and soon you have X% improvement. Over time, that can be significant. It will be interesting to see how this affects Sony's BOM.

What everyone needs to remember is that the OPU being utilized is still no small feat of engineering due to Bluray's smaller track pitch, and higher numerical aperture. Bluray's higher numerical aperture requirement necessitates the inclusion of a separate lens for CD and DVD playback in Bluray players.

 

[mckmas8808]

I can't make new threads so I will just post this here: Sony gamers day is on May 14

Some IGN editor or informant posted this

YEAH Doom. Good post.

 

[TheJollyCorner]

I can't make new threads so I will just post this here: Sony gamers day is on May 14

Some IGN editor or informant posted this

Around the same time as the Square-Enix Party = Final Fantasy VII PS3 Remake stealth-release announcement for 7/07/2007 in Japan!

BELIEVE!~!~!

 

[Tyrannical]

Maybe they'll finally be able to solve those PS3 supply problems....

 

[Chumly]

Do you guys really think that Sony would reintroduce the 20g even though it lost more money? I personally think they are just going to stick with the 60g. Im hoping for a $50-100 price drop by christmas time but I just dont think it could be any less than that since sony has to recoup development costs. So basically it could look like 60g = 499 and maybe the rumored 80g something higher?

 

[Pimpbaa]

SATA Hard Drive 20GB $43.00 60GB $54.00

Roofles, this is lies. The 360 20GB harddrive costs over 90 bucks! Surely it must cost that much, because MS wouldn't be ripping us off.

 

[Steroyd]

Roofles, this is lies. The 360 20GB harddrive costs over 90 bucks! Surely it must cost that much, because MS wouldn't be ripping us off.

lol

 

[bud]

399 or lower by the end of the year plz.

don't make me wait for mgs4 you bastards

 

[Commander_Zorg]

Sony needs to sell the three million PS3s it's got sitting in various warehouses around the world before 'economies of scale' even come into it.

 

[The Innocent X]

I think Sony may have won that war already. I think Blu-Ray wins.

Strange then that Walmart have just ordered 2 million HD-DVD players. Not like Walmart to waste money on dead formats is it?

 

[antiloop]

Yes, please.

It will be easy to cut costs of Blu-ray because of the rising demand and because of it being standard in PS3. (which means they have to come up with cheaper parts)

DVD is pretty much as cheap as it can be already.

 

[CAPCOWNED]

Sony needs to sell the three million PS3s it's got sitting in various warehouses around the world before 'economies of scale' even come into it.

Wow 3 million? That's even more than the Dreamcast sold!

 

[mabuza]

this is great news for gamers everywhere

 

[Yixian]

The price of the PS3 is really the only thing standing in it's way. Once the last few drops are squeezed out of the PS2 in the Sonylands of Japan and Europe, most of those gamers has the mindset that "Games = Sony" and will snap up the PS3... providing they can afford it.

But at $599, they can't. That simple.

 

[Tyrannical]

Sony needs to sell the three million PS3s it's got sitting in various warehouses around the world before 'economies of scale' even come into it.

Wait a sec. The real Commander Zorg know's they have way more then 3 million unsold PS3s. Why here is a picture of a typical store that sells (or trys to) PS3s.

 

[Luckyman]

What will SCEA show at gamers day? Uncharted imminent probably.

 

[Elios83]

What will SCEA show at gamers day? Uncharted imminent probably.

Is this event even confirmed?

Spoiler

And btw PS3 60GB at 399$ FTW!!!

 

[DrXym]

In iSuppi's teardown, they list the drive as $125. That includes the entire assembly, but diode was probably about 85% of that.

Which was last year in the middle of a blue laser diode drought. I expect production and yields have improved substantially since then, especially when Sony are talking 1.7 million diodes per month. It wouldn't surprise me if a BD drive were down to $60 to manufacture now or less.

 

[D3VI0US]

I can't believe anyone would argue that HD-DVD has a chance at this point. This diode news is great for PS3 and Blu Ray as their fates are tied. Penetration of that format will only help Sony's long term success.

 

[DrXym]

Wait a sec. The real Commander Zorg know's they have way more then 3 million unsold PS3s. Why here is a picture of a typical store that sells (or trys to) PS3s.

Yes for as we all know, stores always stack their PS3s into in the middle of the showroom. Or perhaps... they're empty boxes?

 

[Ynos Yrros]

So no buy from me until Christmas. I feel like all those people waiting for PSP redesign now, it might come, but we don't know for sure, and in the end I might end up with my hand in a wet diaper.

 

[Kinan]

Oooh oh! A SemiC related thread.

I'm still wondering why the fabs are still sticking to GaN to make blue laser diodes. Seriously, they've gotten doped CVD diamond to emit at UV/blue spectrum ages ago and it's not that hard to make. And it's native bandgap is already in the UV range.

They've even gotten it grown epitaxially over sapphire as well, so I don't see what the problem is in making some strained growths over Si or some other substrate.

Well, if you don't see the reasons that not means they not exist. Diamond is a bitch to work with on so many levels, starting from fundamentals like indirect band-gap to numerous technical problems, like inability to get a high enough p AND n carrier concentration for a lasing to occur. Then there is a problem to getting good contacts to those p and n regions. Getting a blue light out of material is not equivalent to getting it to emit a coherent radiation. And if you try to grow it on silicon, wow, you face whole knew cluster of problems. That said, people do work on UV lasers based on CVD diamond, but I never heard that they succeeded. There are also promising candidates for UV region from nitride side as well, like AlN and BN. I wouldnt put my money on diamond to win this market. Its still either crap quality or super expensive.

 

[D3VI0US]

Sony has always been really good about stealthy little design tweaks but I don't think they'll do a full blown redesign so soon. Then again they do have a lot on their plate and the unit is kinda big. They also have to rebrand the controller that has rumble. I expected it to all be gradual and transparent but maybe that's not the best move. Still I think a redesign would be worse than the Elite, cause HDMI isn't a big deal but having the big clunky old PS3 for only a year and then introducing a new sleeker model. I'd feel burned but man would I love to pick one of those up at a cheaper price.

 

[theBishop]

Sony has always been really good about stealthy little design tweaks but I don't think they'll do a full blown redesign so soon. Then again they do have a lot on their plate and the unit is kinda big. They also have to rebrand the controller that has rumble. I expected it to all be gradual and transparent but maybe that's not the best move. Still I think a redesign would be worse than the Elite, cause HDMI isn't a big deal but having the big clunky old PS3 for only a year and then introducing a new sleeker model. I'd feel burned but man would I love to pick one of those up at a cheaper price.

there isn't going to be a chassis redesign for a long time.

 

[SRG01]

Well, if you don't see the reasons that not means they not exist. Diamond is a bitch to work with on so many levels, starting from fundamentals like indirect band-gap to numerous technical problems, like inability to get a high enough p AND n carrier concentration for a lasing to occur. Then there is a problem to getting good contacts to those p and n regions. Getting a blue light out of material is not equivalent to getting it to emit a coherent radiation. And if you try to grow it on silicon, wow, you face whole knew cluster of problems. That said, people do work on UV lasers based on CVD diamond, but I never heard that they succeeded. There are also promising candidates for UV region from nitride side as well, like AlN and BN. I wouldnt put my money on diamond to win this market. Its still either crap quality or super expensive.

Diamond has an indirect band gap, but it surprisingly emits photons quite easily! The carrier concentration problems were solved at around the turn of the century too.

There were a few Japanese groups a while back that made quite a few of these guys emit blue-UV, but they were like monster blocks of stuff.


PS. WHAT. AlN as a UV emitter? I must see papers of this!! One of my friends works with AlN as well, so...